Woodhead vs Tomlinson

[BradyFTW!]

Wow., some of you guys are amazing. So based on what I've been reading most of you feel that Woodhead is better than LT, McCourty is better than Revis and Gronk is better than Keller.

Gronkowski is much better than Keller, that's not even really a comparison. LT's better than Woodhead for now, but by next year he won't be. Revis is better than McCourty, although if I had to take one of them straight up, with their contracts, I'd think long and hard about taking McCourty. In fact, I'd take four more years of McCourty on a rookie contract over Revis' holdout contract (which he'll probably hold out from again in a year or two). Besides, I wouldn't be surprised if, within a year or two, McCourty is a comparable player. For now, though, Revis is the sure thing.

experience? Certainly, but I would not count on it. Just like pitchers adjust to rookies that had great years at the plate in baseball, NFL QBs also make adjustments to DBs. Don't believe me? Ask your boy, Brady. You guys, off ALL fans should appreciate and understand QB adjustments. The book isn't out on the rookie McCourty yet.

You can make a better case for that with rookie CBs who only started for a half season, or mostly played in the nickel, where there isn't much film on them. But McCourty played 95% of the Pats' defensive snaps this year- there's plenty of film on him at this point. This isn't going to be another Antonio Cromartie scenario. I dunno how much you've seen of McCourty, but there isn't really anything there to exploit. His only exploitable weakness is that he's made some rookie mistakes, biting on double moves and stuff. He's come very far in that regard, though.

BTW, just curious to know if you guys believe that the Jets possess one single player at any position that is better than the corresponding Pats player?

• 
  Mangold is better than Koppen (TMQ's MVP!)
  Moore is better than Connolly at RG
  your RBs are collectively better than ours
  Revis is better than McCourty
  Cromartie, while terribly overrated and one-dimensional, is still probably better than Arrington. Once Bodden's healthy, this will no longer be the case (next year)
  Shaun Ellis is better than anyone that we currently have at DE. Once Ty Warren's healthy, this will no longer be the case (next year).
  Mayo is better than either of your starting ILBs, but they're both better than Spikes/Guyton, for now at least.
  Pace is better than whoever we're lining up at ROLB in a given week

I'd say that just about does it, and FWIW I expect that list to be much smaller next year. Even that doesn't fully capture the disparity, since the Pats' depth is also orders of magnitude better pretty much across the board. That's the benefit of us having more young, talented players, and having three times as many round 1-3 picks as you guys do.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I guess Football Outsiders is part of the conspiracy:

Woodhead (in 13.25 games): 341 DYAR
Tomlinson (in 16 games): 110 DYAR

You're right, there's no comparison.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Actually, Woodhead's DYAR was 185. Not sure where you're getting 341 from. We've been over this more than a few times, but just as a reminder for anyone who's new to the thread: FO does not measure objective value. There are still a ton of outside variables that aren't accounted for. Patriots RBs score off the charts on DYAR and DVOA every year, whether it's BJGE, Maroney, Woodhead, Faulk, or Morris. Since we can confidently state that this isn't because they're all elite backs, it's pretty obvious to anyone without an agenda that taking FO stats at face value and comparing them across teams and systems without adjustment is pointless.

If you think that DYAR is an objective, universal measuring stick, then apparently you also think that BJGE is the third-best running back in the NFL; better than Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, etc. etc.

FO stats say a lot more about how efficiently a RB is used than how talented he is. They're great statistics, but you're simply using them incorrectly to draw false conclusions.

 

[JackBauer]

• 
  Mangold is better than Koppen (TMQ's MVP!)
  Moore is better than Connolly at RG
  your RBs are collectively better than ours
  Revis is better than McCourty
  Cromartie, while terribly overrated and one-dimensional, is still probably better than Arrington. Once Bodden's healthy, this will no longer be the case (next year)
  Shaun Ellis is better than anyone that we currently have at DE. Once Ty Warren's healthy, this will no longer be the case (next year).
  Mayo is better than either of your starting ILBs, but they're both better than Spikes/Guyton, for now at least.
  Pace is better than whoever we're lining up at ROLB in a given week

Don't forget D'Brickashaw! He's a top-5 LT!!

 

[BradyFTW!]

Don't forget D'Brickashaw! He's a top-5 LT!!

And Vladimir Ducasse is a sure thing!

 

[Kasmir]

Actually, Woodhead's DYAR was 185. Not sure where you're getting 341 from.

By adding rushing and receiving DYAR, just like FO does during their weekly "Quick Reads" columns. I've made this clear multiple times; I'm growing weary of your tendentious criticisms when you don't even understand such an elementary point.

We've been over this more than a few times, but just as a reminder for anyone who's new to the thread: FO does not measure objective value. There are still a ton of outside variables that aren't accounted for. Patriots RBs score off the charts on DYAR and DVOA every year, whether it's BJGE, Maroney, Woodhead, Faulk, or Morris. Since we can confidently state that this isn't because they're all elite backs, it's pretty obvious to anyone without an agenda that taking FO stats at face value and comparing them across teams and systems without adjustment is pointless.

If you think that DYAR is an objective, universal measuring stick, then apparently you also think that BJGE is the third-best running back in the NFL; better than Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Ray Rice, Darren McFadden, Michael Turner, etc. etc.

The best backs in the league in productivity this year were Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster; they and Benny had three of the best seasons of any running backs in productivity this year. All three are downgraded by blind fools who rely on reputation and credentials in place of independent judgment.

FO stats say a lot more about how efficiently a RB is used than how talented he is. They're great statistics, but you're simply using them incorrectly to draw false conclusions.

All football statistical systems have that flaw, including the official stats that fans use to base their opinions on. Nothing is definitive from any statistical football analysis, which leaves room for subjective attributions such as yours. You're certainly welcome to be harsh on Woodhead and generous to Tomlinson by assuming the latter's relatively poor performance is caused by the Jets' system while Woodhead's is a happy accident of the Patriots'. But your assertions of your superior understanding of Football Outsiders statistical system are pure posturing.

 

[BradyFTW!]

By adding rushing and receiving DYAR, just like FO does during their weekly "Quick Reads" columns. I've made this clear multiple times; I'm growing weary of your tendentious criticisms when you don't even understand such an elementary point.

Well, you apparently forgot to mention that in the post that I quoted. Hard to understand poorly communicated points.

All football statistical systems have that flaw, including the official stats that fans use to base their opinions on. Nothing is definitive from any statistical football analysis, which leaves room for subjective attributions such as yours. You're certainly welcome to be harsh on Woodhead and generous to Tomlinson by assuming the latter's relatively poor performance is caused by the Jets' system while Woodhead's is a happy accident of the Patriots'.

For the first half of the season, Tomlinson was playing very well. Due to overuse, his performance fell off dramatically over the second half. He had multiple times Woodhead's touches, so it stands to reason that this is likely to happen, and it is not indicative of either player's talent. It's an outside variable that FO stats fail to control for. This isn't rocket science. All you're doing is holding it against Tomlinson that his team ran him into the ground, while conveniently ignoring that Woodhead had the benefit (to efficiency) of having only half as many touches. That's about as ridiculous as comparing yards straight-up and ignoring that one player had significantly more carries.

But your assertions of your superior understanding of Football Outsiders statistical system are pure foolishness.

So, once again: Do you think that BJGE in 2010 was better than Adrian Peterson and MJD? Because if DYAR is the objective measurer of value that you claim it is, then you must believe that that's the case. Dodging the question and accusing me of 'pure foolishness' won't change that.

Combined DYAR for 2010:
Green-Ellis: 385
Jones-Drew: 339
Peterson: 322

The results speak for themselves. DYAR measures efficiency of player usage, and Woodhead was used *far* more efficiently than Tomlinson, just as BJGE was used more efficiently than MJD or AP. Sure as hell doesn't make BJGE better than those guys, and it doesn't make Woodhead better than Tomlinson either, by a long shot.

 

[jsull87]

Well, you apparently forgot to mention that in the post that I quoted. Hard to understand poorly communicated points.




For the first half of the season, Tomlinson was playing very well. Due to overuse, his performance fell off dramatically over the second half. He had multiple times Woodhead's touches, so it stands to reason that this is likely to happen, and it is not indicative of either player's talent. It's an outside variable that FO stats fail to control for. This isn't rocket science. All you're doing is holding it against Tomlinson that his team ran him into the ground, while conveniently ignoring that Woodhead had the benefit (to efficiency) of having only half as many touches. That's about as ridiculous as comparing yards straight-up and ignoring that one player had significantly more carries.



So, once again: Do you think that BJGE in 2010 was better than Adrian Peterson and MJD? Because if DYAR is the objective measurer of value that you claim it is, then you must believe that that's the case. Dodging the question and accusing me of 'pure foolishness' won't change that.

Combined DYAR for 2010:
Green-Ellis: 385
Jones-Drew: 339
Peterson: 322

The results speak for themselves. DYAR measures efficiency of player usage, and Woodhead was used *far* more efficiently than Tomlinson, just as BJGE was used more efficiently than MJD or AP. Sure as hell doesn't make BJGE better than those guys, and it doesn't make Woodhead better than Tomlinson either, by a long shot.

something else that the stats fail to tell is that Peterson and MJD were the focal point of their Offense, defenses game planned around them. In our Offense people game plan around Brady and BJGE does get the benefit of that freedom.

 

[Kasmir]

Well, you apparently forgot to mention that in the post that I quoted. Hard to understand poorly communicated points.

I simply posted final DYAR numbers for Welker and Tomlinson. What's so hard to understand about that? Can't help it if you're too lazy or too ignorant to know how to look them up given the link. I'm under no obligation to do your homework for you, a self proclaimed expert on Football Outsider methodology. But since you're kind of slow on these matters, let me spell it out for you again:

Woodhead: 185 rushing DYAR + 156 receiving DYAR = 341 total DYAR
Tomlinson: 112 rushing DYAR + -2 receiving DYAR = 110 total DYAR

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | RUNNING BACKS 2010

Get it now? I'm sure you were confused because Woodhead missed by 3 carries making the 100 necessary to qualify for the rushing leader board -- despite being 7th ranked in DYAR. I doubt you understand DYAR vs DVOA enough to understand the significance of this. For someone lecturing me on your perception of my poor understanding of FO methodology, shame on you for being unable to notice that running backs are rated for receiving as well as rushing. Kind of elementary.

You've certainly spent a good deal of time replying to my posts for someone who apparently hasn't read them. Personally, I'm pretty careful about researching everything I post. You should be careful about the fights you pick.

Here, BTW, is an example showing that FO routinely uses total DYAR:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 17 Quick Reads

The results speak for themselves. DYAR measures efficiency of player usage, and Woodhead was used *far* more efficiently than Tomlinson, just as BJGE was used more efficiently than MJD or AP. Sure as hell doesn't make BJGE better than those guys, and it doesn't make Woodhead better than Tomlinson either, by a long shot.

Very wrong. If you think DYAR measures efficiency, you really should re-read the following:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Methods To Our Madness

In terms of the FO system, "better" is indeed fairly well defined. The FO system is entirely statistical and is ruthlessly ignorant of which players are better by reputation. You're certainly free to scoff at the FO systematic indication that free agent running backs Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and BJGE were the best running backs in the league this year, and instead rely on reputation alone. It's certainly the popular wisdom.

 

[robbomango]

Belichick will take an over acheiving, sure handed, work horse, clutch midget with a great attitude and an extra gear everytime and so would I. Woodhead won't be invisible in a super bowl, niether will Branch and welker. These hobbits are great combined with 3 giant TE trolls and benjarvis "beartrap hands" greenellis, Brady will eventually lord a 4th ring. Juggernaut mode!!!