Using that logic, there would always be at a minimum 3 of the 4 non- bye teams would be eliminated before the Super Bowl, 75%.
Actually no they don't. You fail to take into consideration the bye for seeds #1,2 and the fact that #3 plays #6 and #4 plays #5 in the first round. Once they get to the second round the upper seeds get to the Super Bowl 65% of the time when they would get there 50% if it was a coin toss, an advantage but not great.
Your reasoning is incorrect here. The question is how big an advantage does a 1 or 2 seed have. Yes, these 3-6 teams play each other in the first round, which is immediately going to eliminate the chances of any given team that does not get a bye. This is covered in the advantages section of having to play 3 games automatically is statistically brutal compared to 2 games. I obviously did not fail to take into account the byes. The 65% stat is the end result of a 1 or 2 seed making it to the playoffs. 65% of the time, one of those two teams will make it to the SB.
Incorrect you are again. Assuming a team makes it out of the first round (which you are doing), and posing an entirely different question (which is: do the Patriots have a disadvantage assuming they make to the second round and have two-game task similar to a 1-2 seed?). That's not the question. But assuming you want to go down that road, a 65% chance vs. a 50% chance is actually pretty enormous.
33% and 9% is a total of 42%. So the remaining 58% of the time, nobody makes the Super Bowl? Obviously when you have a #1 and a #2, only one of them can make the Super Bowl in a given year and the same is true for the #3-6 seeds, only one can at most make the Super Bowl.
Again, your numbers are off and you don't understand the math. Let's break it down, as we're not giving numbers for "blocks of teams," but rather numbers for individual teams that fall into these blocks.
Seeds 1-2 (A,B), Seeds 3-6 (C,D,E,F)
A-33%
B-33%
C-9%
D-9%
E-9%
F-9%
Add up these numbers, which are stats for how any given team will do historically based on seeds 1-2 vs. 3-6. The math does not come out to 42%, it comes out to 102% (due to rounding.)
Your numbering is off but we already know that.
No, my numbers are spot on, and if you're going to criticize, at least try to figure them out first.
Using that logic, there would always be at a minimum 3 of the 4 non- bye teams would be eliminated before the Super Bowl, 75%.
I'm not sure I even understand what you're saying here. Using any logic, there would be a minimum of five teams eliminated before the Super Bowl from either conference, as only one team makes it. I'm not sure what you mean by 75%. But 50% of the non-bye teams are automatically eliminated after the first round, obviously.
Bottom Line is, take all the teams from the last ten years that enter the playoffs. Statistically, there is a 65% chance that one of the two bye teams will make the SB (roughly 33% for either team), and a 35% chance that a 3-6 team will make the Super Bowl (roughly a 9% chance for any of those four teams.)
