Patriots have a Top 10 defense

[Sicilian]

I think what I've seen is that this defense is "good enough" if one of two things is happening:

1) We're not playing one of the top offenses like Indy or NO. Not sure how we'd do against a Minnesota or San Diego, since we haven't seen them.

2) The offense is on track.

We may not have the best defense amongst the playoff teams, but I feel like if our defense outplays an opponents in a playoff game, it won't be some miracle upset. We're capable of having a good game on any given Sunday, and that's enough for me.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think what I've seen is that this defense is "good enough" if one of two things is happening:

1) We're not playing one of the top offenses like Indy or NO. Not sure how we'd do against a Minnesota or San Diego, since we haven't seen them.

2) The offense is on track.

We may not have the best defense amongst the playoff teams, but I feel like if our defense outplays an opponents in a playoff game, it won't be some miracle upset. We're capable of having a good game on any given Sunday, and that's enough for me.

I like your summary. We're not good enough to stop the elite teams, and we're not good enough to reliably shut down opposing teams if the offense doesn't execute. But we're plenty good enough to win against almost anyone if the offense does it's job.

But that's been the problem this season - the offense hasn't really done it's job. Fix the offensive execution and we'll be very dangerous in the postseason. Don't fix it, and we'll likely be one and done.

 

[bigfandan]

The point is that the Patriots defense is no worse (at least significantly) than any other team that will be in the playoffs.

I do think you are right in saying there id no ONE consistently great defense in NFL this year. However there are a few quite strong defenses.

I can give you a few defenses that I do like better than ours. Colts defense has been very clutch in the 4th qtr this year. They maybe get pushed around by the Dolphins and Pats for 3 quarters. But when the game is on line, they closed out games and handled the ball to Manning for victory formations, for how many times? 14 and counting. Their pass defense is great with Freeney and Mathis. Their backers and safeties are creating a turnover (it seems like) everytime I turned to their game. It works very effectively with that Colts quick strike offense. I agree it's not a perfect defense, but I would take that defense over ours.

I would also take the defenses of giants , the cowboys, the chargers, the bengals, or the packers over ours. Because they have solid pass rush (a successful pash rush results in a sack, a qtrback hit, and hurried throw). When we have a 3 point lead with 40 second left, the odds of these defense winning the game is much better than ours in my view. It's hard to recall the last time these defenses blew a big lead like we often do ...blowing leads has become a disturbing pattern in losses of recent playoffs and in this season.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

I wasn't pointing to every stat, because you'll generally find that most winning teams' best statistical games will come against losing teams. I was pointing specifically to the sacks number, because that's what the back-and-forth was about. While 2007 demonstrated all too well that anything can happen in a given game, six sacks in 5 games against "good" offenses does not bode well for getting great pressure against teams in the playoffs.



New England's is the worst defense currently in the AFC playoffs, imo (and I disagree with you and would take San Diego's current defense over the Patriots' current defense all day long. The last bad game that Chargers' defense played was in the middle of October). Having said that, I'd say that the Broncos' defense is more than capable of tossing in a stinker, especially if you can stop the pass rush, and I'd say that the Colts' defense would become much less impressive if teams had the balls to run on it all day instead of panicking and starting to throw all the time.

This is all fluid stuff, and positioning can change with better/worse play (Springs getting more comfortable as he plays more should help, for example), injuries and the like, but that's how I see it right now.

I'd say denver's is worse.......their statistics are still skewed by an incredible start to the season

 

[crypto]

I can give you a few defenses that I do like better than ours. Colts defense has been very clutch in the 4th qtr this year. They maybe get pushed around by the Dolphins and Pats for 3 quarters. But when the game is on line, they closed out games and handled the ball to Manning for victory formations, for how many times? 14 and counting. Their pass defense is great with Freeney and Mathis. Their backers and safeties are creating a turnover (it seems like) everytime I turned to their game. It works very effectively with that Colts quick strike offense. I agree it's not a perfect defense, but I would take that defense over ours.

Correct me if I'm wrong but that's the whole point of Indy's defense. It focuses on speed and as a result gives up 20–30 points through three quarters, but is consistently able to shut down opposing teams in tight fourth-quarter situations. I wouldn't call it clutch; that's just how it's built.

 

[Jangles]

I like your summary. We're not good enough to stop the elite teams, and we're not good enough to reliably shut down opposing teams if the offense doesn't execute. But we're plenty good enough to win against almost anyone if the offense does it's job.

But that's been the problem this season - the offense hasn't really done it's job. Fix the offensive execution and we'll be very dangerous in the postseason. Don't fix it, and we'll likely be one and done.

With a decent #3 WR I think the offense would enjoy a lot more success.

 

[mayoclinic]

Correct me if I'm wrong but that's the whole point of Indy's defense. It focuses on speed and as a result gives up 20–30 points through three quarters, but is consistently able to shut down opposing teams in tight fourth-quarter situations. I wouldn't call it clutch; that's just how it's built.

Can you please explain how that works? How does focusing on "speed" result in a porous defense through 3 quarters and a shut down defense in the 4th?

 

[bigfandan]

Here is the ranking of Defensive Efficiency, adjusted for strength the of schedule; it shows that we are 18th in team defense. (choose team defense and year 2009 in dropbox)
FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2009 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS (Credits to BradyManny for finding this interesting website... I love stats)

TEAM DEFENSE DVOA LAST WEEK WEIGHTED DEFENSE RANK PASS DEFENSE PASS
RANK RUSH DEFENSE RUSH RANK NON-ADJUSTED VAR. RANK TOTAL PASS RUSH
1 NYJ -18.6% 1 -17.3% 1 -27.4% 1 -9.3% 11 -18.1% -26.0% -9.8% 10.9% 30
2 BAL -12.8% 6 -11.9% 2 -12.7% 6 -12.9% 5 -12.8% -11.3% -14.4% 6.7% 20
3 DEN -12.5% 3 -10.1% 3 -18.0% 2 -6.5% 14 -9.8% -9.5% -10.1% 5.8% 17
4 PHI -12.1% 5 -7.1% 7 -16.4% 4 -6.2% 15 -14.6% -16.7% -11.9% 7.5% 24
5 GB -10.5% 2 -10.0% 4 -5.3% 9 -17.6% 3 -17.8% -15.4% -21.0% 12.3% 31
6 SF -8.4% 4 -7.5% 6 -5.4% 8 -12.4% 7 -6.6% -1.4% -13.4% 9.0% 27
7 CAR -5.0% 8 -8.6% 5 -14.3% 5 4.3% 24 -0.4% -7.0% 6.2% 2.8% 3
8 BUF -3.3% 9 -4.4% 8 -17.3% 3 8.7% 30 -1.1% -15.3% 11.1% 2.3% 1
9 IND -1.6% 7 0.4% 14 -0.5% 10 -3.2% 17 -0.8% 1.3% -3.6% 4.1% 7
10 NYG -0.7% 16 2.5% 15 0.7% 11 -2.3% 21 5.2% 8.7% 1.0% 6.3% 18
11 CIN -0.7% 15 -1.7% 10 0.8% 12 -2.6% 20 -2.3% 1.2% -7.2% 3.8% 5
12 NO -0.4% 11 4.4% 20 -6.9% 7 7.8% 27 -3.7% -12.6% 7.3% 5.8% 16
13 ARI -0.1% 13 3.5% 17 4.2% 14 -6.6% 13 -3.3% -2.5% -4.5% 10.3% 29
14 WAS 0.6% 12 -0.4% 12 14.5% 22 -13.2% 4 0.9% 13.2% -11.4% 3.5% 4
15 PIT 0.7% 10 -0.3% 13 8.2% 15 -11.0% 9 -3.2% 1.2% -10.1% 7.5% 23
16 MIN 2.0% 14 4.3% 19 17.8% 25 -20.8% 1 -4.1% 10.4% -25.1% 4.3% 8
17 DAL 2.9% 21 -2.5% 9 10.0% 16 -6.7% 12 2.4% 11.9% -10.7% 4.8% 13
18 NE 3.6% 17 2.9% 16 13.7% 19 -9.3% 10 3.3% 14.0% -10.5% 13.5% 32
19 MIA 3.8% 18 3.6% 18 4.1% 13 3.6% 23 6.9% 10.3% 2.9% 9.9% 28
20 CHI 5.4% 19 6.8% 21 13.0% 18 -2.8% 19 7.3% 11.6% 2.7% 7.1% 21
21 HOU 5.4% 20 -1.4% 11 14.1% 20 -5.3% 16 2.7% 6.7% -2.2% 6.7% 19
22 TEN 8.5% 24 8.5% 24 16.0% 24 -2.9% 18 12.7% 21.0% 0.2% 7.9% 26
23 SD 9.7% 25 8.1% 23 14.1% 21 4.7% 25 8.4% 12.9% 3.5% 5.3% 15
24 JAC 10.0% 22 11.2% 26 34.1% 30 -18.1% 2 10.1% 32.8% -16.6% 4.5% 11
25 ATL 10.4% 26 12.2% 27 29.3% 27 -11.1% 8 12.0% 30.1% -8.6% 4.5% 10
26 OAK 10.5% 28 12.5% 28 15.7% 23 6.3% 26 13.3% 25.8% 3.0% 7.2% 22
27 KC 11.4% 23 10.7% 25 10.0% 17 12.7% 32 11.4% 13.2% 9.9% 4.4% 9
28 TB 13.0% 29 7.5% 22 19.0% 26 8.0% 28 14.2% 23.6% 6.4% 3.8% 6
29 SEA 14.1% 27 16.3% 29 33.8% 29 -12.7% 6 11.2% 28.1% -11.7% 5.0% 14
30 STL 19.7% 31 17.3% 30 32.2% 28 8.1% 29 19.1% 32.6% 6.6% 2.6% 2
31 DET 19.7% 32 18.8% 31 36.6% 32 -0.7% 22 22.9% 38.6% 4.0% 4.7% 12
32 CLE 21.9% 30 21.3% 32 34.8% 31 9.8% 31 21.8% 36.2% 8.4% 7.8% 25

Nothing to write home about... but if they keep playing the type of defense games they played last week... I say they are a top 10.

 

[patsinthesnow]

You guys think we have the worst defense in the AFC playoffs, are you serious?

Chargers 20.2ppg 213.2 pass yds 116.9 rush yards
Colts 17.7ppg 225.5 pass yds 112.4 rush yards
Bengals 17.4ppg 215.3 pass yds 85.2 rush yards
Patriots 17.4ppg 205.9 pass yds 109 rush yards
Ravens 16.1ppg 200.3 pass yds 99.5 rush yards
Broncos 17.9ppg 177.5 pass yds 116.9 rush yards
-------------------(Teams in the hunt)----------------
Jaguars 23.0ppg 244.4 pass yds 103.7 rush yards
Dolphins 23.0ppg 233.8 pass yds 107.6 rush yards
Jets 15.8ppg 159.8 pass yds 103 rush yards
Steelers 20ppg 221 pass yds 83.1 rush yards
Titans 24.8ppg 265.1 pass yds 100.4 rush yards
Texans 20.4ppg 210.1 pass yds 112.6 rush yards

The insane steelers/ravens defenses of last year don't exist in the NFL this year. The 2 great defenses are the Jets and the Ravens, then its everyone else cramped together. The Pats dont get "gashed through the air" either.

 

[Sicilian]

You guys think we have the worst defense in the AFC playoffs, are you serious?

Chargers 20.2ppg 213.2 pass yds 116.9 rush yards
Colts 17.7ppg 225.5 pass yds 112.4 rush yards
Bengals 17.4ppg 215.3 pass yds 85.2 rush yards
Patriots 17.4ppg 205.9 pass yds 109 rush yards
Ravens 16.1ppg 200.3 pass yds 99.5 rush yards
Broncos 17.9ppg 177.5 pass yds 116.9 rush yards
-------------------(Teams in the hunt)----------------
Jaguars 23.0ppg 244.4 pass yds 103.7 rush yards
Dolphins 23.0ppg 233.8 pass yds 107.6 rush yards
Jets 15.8ppg 159.8 pass yds 103 rush yards
Steelers 20ppg 221 pass yds 83.1 rush yards
Titans 24.8ppg 265.1 pass yds 100.4 rush yards
Texans 20.4ppg 210.1 pass yds 112.6 rush yards

The insane steelers/ravens defenses of last year don't exist in the NFL this year. The 2 great defenses are the Jets and the Ravens, then its everyone else cramped together. The Pats dont get "gashed through the air" either.

The problem with using aggregate stats is that they don't account for TOP. Our offense hasn't been lighting it up like in 2007, but we still consistently win the battle of TOP, which means the defense has fewer opportunities to surrender yards and points.

 

[mgteich]

If the offense had gained six more inches, we would ahve beaten Indy last time. Why do we have such pessimism about facing Indy? I agree with regard to New Orleans. We also may or may not be up to defending against the charger offense.

I think what I've seen is that this defense is "good enough" if one of two things is happening:

1) We're not playing one of the top offenses like Indy or NO. Not sure how we'd do against a Minnesota or San Diego, since we haven't seen them.

2) The offense is on track.

We may not have the best defense amongst the playoff teams, but I feel like if our defense outplays an opponents in a playoff game, it won't be some miracle upset. We're capable of having a good game on any given Sunday, and that's enough for me.

 

[BionicPatriot]

If the offense had gained six more inches, we would ahve beaten Indy last time. Why do we have such pessimism about facing Indy? I agree with regard to New Orleans. We also may or may not be up to defending against the charger offense.

Why do we have such pesimism? Look at the record lately. Close don't mean squat, they own us. Even if we do make it hard, they beat us when it hurts the most these days.

The defense still imploded in that game, regardless of what the offense did. It's hard to feel good about stopping them when they blew another big lead. I just hope Bill has something in his sleeve nobody is expecting.

 

[mayoclinic]

I just hope Bill has something in his sleeve nobody is expecting.

That would be difficult, since BB cut his sleeves on account of his "short arms".

 

[skinnydog]

I'd much rather face Indy in the playoffs that San Diego. The Pats matche very well agaisnt that defense, San Diego not so much.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

PPG

1) Bengals - 15.6
2) Colts - 16.8
3) Broncos - 16.8
4) Jets - 17.3
5) Cowboys - 17.8
6) Ravens - 17.9
7) Patriots - 18.7
8) Packers - 19.1
9) Steelers - 19.2
10) Vikings - 19.4

Can someone please try to explain to me why you feel they're "one of the worst in the NFL" or not even solid?

They're alright, but, a superior pass rush would make them better.

 

[Brono]

As of week 14, the Pats lead the league in time of possession, which of course helps the defense.

However, even when the direct effects of TOP are removed, by using a metric such as opponent points per play, the Pats still have a top 10 defense.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

...that and twenty five cents will get us a local three minute call on our neighborhood pay phone.

Those who criticize the D aren't talking about stats (as much as everyone knows I love stats), they're talking about its inability to come up with big stops at big times, particularly against money QB's like Manning and Brees.

Put it this way, the next time you're freezing your butt off on a cold New England night just remember that Boston's Average Temperature is 51.3 degrees. I guarantee you won't feel any warmer.

 

[mgteich]

The point seems to be that the defense sucks if it can't stop Brees and Manning in key situations. If that's what we need, then we should spend much more on defense emphasize our offense less when spending resources.

 

[Disco Volante]

Defense (PPG)

1. New York Jets - 15.7
2. Baltimore Ravens - 16.5
3. New England Patriots - 16.7
4. Dallas Cowboys - 16.7
5. Cincinnati Bengals - 16.9
6. San Francisco 49ers - 18.3
7. Indianapolis Colts - 18.5
8. Denver Broncos - 18.7
9. Minnesota Vikings - 19.2
10. Green Bay Packers - 19.3

 

[Brady_12]

Put it this way, the next time you're freezing your butt off on a cold New England night just remember that Boston's Average Temperature is 51.3 degrees. I guarantee you won't feel any warmer.

While I'm of the opinion that the problem has been more with the offense than D, ^ is great and so true.