5 Key to Victory: Pats-Saints

[Patjew]

Being a Saints fan through the years has made me angry, nothing personal.

Bullsh!t, you can't fool me. You're nice and happy and you know it.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

Being a Saints fan through the years has made me angry, nothing personal.

Oh, I thought you were a Metallica fan

 

[mayoclinic]

I agree that if we outrush the saints, we will win. What odds would you lay on that happening?

Belichick takes one thing away. You suggest taking away the running game and make the saints one-dimensional. How would you do that? Somehow, it doesn't seem right for us to stress run defense over pass defense against the best passer in the league for the past two years, especially when he has as many weapons as he has.

We outrushed the #1 Jets rushing attack last week, 111 yards to 104. Would you have expected that? Admittedly, taking away the Jets' running game was probably a priority since I don't think BB thought Sanchez could beat us D), whereas the Saints can certainly beat us through the air as well as on the ground.

I'm not suggesting prioritizing the run defense over the pass defense. But, like Manning, Brees will get a bunch of yards and points no matter what. I don't think we're going to "take away" NO's passing attack. My statement was rather that if we can limit their running effectiveness and make them more of a pass-only team like the Colts, that it would be easier to contain their offense. Probably the best way to do that would be to get out on top early.

Brady and Brees will both put up yards and points. Whichever team runs more effectively has the advantage. By the numbers, this favors the Saints. If we can turn the rushing advantage around, I think it gives us a huge edge. That's all.

 

[patsinthesnow]

The Saints are ranked 19th in rushing defense. I say we try to pound it.

Did anyone else love the iso with Maroney-Green Ellis? I think it could be really effective. It also seems to be the most reliable 3rd and 2ish play we have.

 

[chrisfx811]

I hope our ST looks better than they did last week. I'll admit to not having seen much of the Saints this year as far as full games go, so I don't know how strong their return game is. However, I really think our ST needs to be beyond solid in this one.

We're really lacking as far as explosiveness in the return game (sorry WW, last week was nice).
Otoh, NO, from what I've seen has been able to get more points from sources other than their offense.


oh, and lol @ 'a QB not feeling well' as a summary of TfB coming back from major reconstructive knee surgery. Hell, Seyton had a bursa sac surgery on his knee, played like poo for almost half the year, and was somehow given the MVP.
Brady had some scrappy games, with the worst being the NYJ.

 

[Metaphors]

The Saints are ranked 19th in rushing defense. I say we try to pound it.

Did anyone else love the iso with Maroney-Green Ellis? I think it could be really effective. It also seems to be the most reliable 3rd and 2ish play we have.

The Saints may go into this game with 2 CBs that haven't played in 2009 (just signed off the street) and a rookie CB that is probably better suited to play safety. Even if the Saints injury report is better than expected, is anyone afraid of facing Greer and Gay coming off of injury?

While I'm not suggesting that the Pats abandon the run, trying to "pound it" into their huge DL early in the game seems a little misguided. Their weak point now is the secondary and a strategy that isolates them should be successful.

 

[JSn]

More-over, even with their team healthy, inferior teams have managed to get early leads against them. Pats will do the same and will work their asses off to maintain that lead.

The Saints may go into this game with 2 CBs that haven't played in 2009 (just signed off the street) and a rookie CB that is probably better suited to play safety. Even if the Saints injury report is better than expected, is anyone afraid of facing Greer and Gay coming off of injury?

While I'm not suggesting that the Pats abandon the run, trying to "pound it" into their huge DL early in the game seems a little misguided. Their weak point now is the secondary and a strategy that isolates them should be successful.

 

[MLU]

I thought I'd give this one a whack. My 5:

1. Win the turnover battle. Both teams are oppotunistic. The Saints lead the NFL in turnovers with 29, the Pats are 3rd with 22. Over the past 5 games the Pats lead the NFL with 16 turnovers. The Pats are 2nd in turnover differential at +12, the Saints 4th at +10. The Saints have produced a whopping 566 yards on 20 INT returns, and have scored 7 TDs directly on turnovers (5 INTs and 2 fumbles); the Pats, only 1, but that came last week. Whichever team wins this battle will have a decided edge. On offense, the Pats need to avoid costly mistakes and big negative plays. They can't kill drives with costly turnovers, and if they do turn the ball over they have to stop the Saints from making the big gain and force the Saints offense to work for points. On defense, they have to stay aggressive and make plays; and the Pats need to turn those opportunities into points. The good news for the Pats is that the Saints offense has been prone to turnovers.

2. Control the TOP. The Pats currently rank 1st in TOP at 34:43, the Saints 7th at 32:21. The Pats need to keep the Saints offense off the field and limit their opportunities. The Saint's defense is 7th in the league in limiting 3rd down conversions, at 34.5%. The Pats offense is 6th in converting 3rd downs, at 45.7%. How the Pats do to convert on 3rd (and 4th) down and keep drives alive will be important. Being able to run the ball effectively will also be important. If the Pats outrush the Saints, I think the Pats win.

3. Red Zone Execution. This is perhaps the biggest key, on both sides of the ball. The Saints defense gives up yards and points, but makes big plays and is 5th in red zone defense. The Pat's offense ranked 25th in red zone efficiency going into the Jets game. Conversely, the Pats defense rank 2nd in PPG but 28th in red zone defense.

4. Stop the Run. The Saints have too many weapons to shut down. But they've been running for over 150 yards per game. That's too much, in addition to Drew Brees. The Pats need to slow the Saints running attack and make them beat us in the air. Then they become more one-dimensional. If the Saints can run at will, then it will be a long day for the Pats defense. The Pats slowed NY's league-leading rushing attack last week, so they can do it.

5. Play for 60 minutes. We have to avoid mental lapses. We have to avoid special teams breakdowns. And above all we have to come out on fire in the 2nd half and play our guts out on both sides of the ball. No 3rd quarter absences if we want to win this game. Like the Colts, the Saints are a team that we could easily beat for 3 quarters and lose the game.

If the Pats do win the game, I think the person who may have had the most to do with it outside of the players on the field will be Peyton Manning. Our biggest advantage over the Saints is that we've already been battle tested (and scarred) against a top offense. They've never faced an offense like ours.

That's a good read, but there's really only one key to beating the Saints: Get Drew Brees out of his rhythm. Hit him early and hit him often. Keep the pressure coming right up the middle to shut down the passing lanes relied upon for a QB that only 6 foot tall. Keep the D-Line's arms up to bat down passes and run delayed blitzs to avoid the passrush getting picked up.

Everything else will fall in line...

 

[PatsBoy12]

I think that how the Patriots come out in the third quarter will determine who wins and who loses.

 

[JoeShmoe]

The absolute number ONE key to winning this game is the Pats defense not gping to some ****ty prevent, lets play 10 yards off the recievers nonsense, if they get a lead in the first half

Sadly, knowing Pees and seeing what ive seen so far I dont know if thats possible

It's so common sense its farcial as it allowed Manning back into the game and it will someone as good as Brees as well

 

[MLU]

The absolute number ONE key to winning this game is the Pats defense not gping to some ****ty prevent, lets play 10 yards off the recievers nonsense, if they get a lead in the first half

Sadly, knowing Pees and seeing what ive seen so far I dont know if thats possible

It's so common sense its farcial as it allowed Manning back into the game and it will someone as good as Brees as well

I have seen enough of Drew Brees to know that all he needs is a few inches to put the ball in a safe spot and that's where it will go. If the Pats defend the receivers, they're going to lose. They will need to disrupt Brees if they are to have any chance. Brees is approaching this game like he has something to prove and history says that the entire team will adopt that point of view and feed off it.

 

[Patspsycho]

I have seen enough of Drew Brees to know that all he needs is a few inches to put the ball in a safe spot and that's where it will go. If the Pats defend the receivers, they're going to lose. They will need to disrupt Brees if they are to have any chance. Brees is approaching this game like he has something to prove and history says that the entire team will adopt that point of view and feed off it.

That is how I see it. Placing priority on the receivers is shutting the gate after the horse has gone.

 

[mayoclinic]

That is how I see it. Placing priority on the receivers is shutting the gate after the horse has gone.

I think that it's pretty much a given that if you give any of the top QBs in the NFL (Manning, Brady, Brees, even Favre) enough time without pressure, they will carve you up.

 

[jt21]

One key stat(unofficial, but pretty accurate) about Brees is that when he does turn the ball over, which he has been doing at a huge rate the last 5 weeks before Tampa, they come in multiples. He RARELY has a game where he only has one interception or just one fumble, he either gets none or he has 2 or 3. This is key imo against such a good team as the patriots, since if Brees does turn it over then the floodgates could definitely open and turn it into a blowout fast. Brady is much better at protecting the ball, so he is much less likely to return the favor like other opponents have.

Also, people mention the blitz and how Brees' numbers shoot up against the "blitz". He, like any other quarterback has done well against INEFFECTIVE blitzes. Look no further than the Bills game or against the Dolphins to see Brees' numbers where they actually got to him. The key is confusing teh line, which has been done much more effectively against the 3-4 teams they have faced this year: Miami and Jets, Brees had fairly mediocre games in both. If you line up and don't really attempt to disguise the rushers and confuse the offensive line, then it doesn't matter how many you send because Brees(and probably most other quarterbacks) will recognize it.

Attacking the offensive tackles should be a priority for the Patriots, moreso than trying to bring heat up the middle. The Saints boast one of the best guard tandems in the league and have a formidable center as well, but the two tackles are definitley shaky compared to teh interior. Stinchcomb is good but not great, he never gets absolutely dominated but he does get pushed into the backfield quite a bit and seems to be susceptible to the strong bull rushes. Both of the guys who have been alternating at left tackle seem to have trouble agianst quick inside spin moves. Both tackles probably won't get beat around the edges, but are defiantely attackable with inside moves and bull rushes.

 

[Patspsycho]

One key stat(unofficial, but pretty accurate) about Brees is that when he does turn the ball over, which he has been doing at a huge rate the last 5 weeks before Tampa, they come in multiples. He RARELY has a game where he only has one interception or just one fumble, he either gets none or he has 2 or 3. This is key imo against such a good team as the patriots, since if Brees does turn it over then the floodgates could definitely open and turn it into a blowout fast. Brady is much better at protecting the ball, so he is much less likely to return the favor like other opponents have.

Also, people mention the blitz and how Brees' numbers shoot up against the "blitz". He, like any other quarterback has done well against INEFFECTIVE blitzes. Look no further than the Bills game or against the Dolphins to see Brees' numbers where they actually got to him. The key is confusing teh line, which has been done much more effectively against the 3-4 teams they have faced this year: Miami and Jets, Brees had fairly mediocre games in both. If you line up and don't really attempt to disguise the rushers and confuse the offensive line, then it doesn't matter how many you send because Brees(and probably most other quarterbacks) will recognize it.

Attacking the offensive tackles should be a priority for the Patriots, moreso than trying to bring heat up the middle. The Saints boast one of the best guard tandems in the league and have a formidable center as well, but the two tackles are definitley shaky compared to teh interior. Stinchcomb is good but not great, he never gets absolutely dominated but he does get pushed into the backfield quite a bit and seems to be susceptible to the strong bull rushes. Both of the guys who have been alternating at left tackle seem to have trouble agianst quick inside spin moves. Both tackles probably won't get beat around the edges, but are defiantely attackable with inside moves and bull rushes.

Great post.

This is why I was already thinking 3-4.

 

[ausbacker]

Show me any defense than can confuse an offensive line and I'll show you a confused quarterback.

 

[mayoclinic]

Great post.

This is why I was already thinking 3-4.

I was thinking more 3-3-5 and 3-2-6 mixed in with 3-4, and the pass rush/blitz coming from different directions.

 

[welshsaint]

Brees is approaching this game like he has something to prove and history says that the entire team will adopt that point of view and feed off it.

Hey guys Saints here from the UK.

I've been looking forward to this game ever since the fixtures came out, even more so now the way the season has panned out. The above quote is so true about the Saints. See the Giants game and the Brees bowl last year against the Chargers. When we played the Giants all the talk was that the Saints are still the Saints, and haven't proven anything. With hindsight, destroying the Giants is not THAT much of an acheivement this year. However the Saints went into the game with the intention to prove themselves. Your a good/great team, and a historically great team at that. This is another litmus test for the Saints to see where we are as team. As again the talk is that they haven't beaten anyone.

First up regarding the last few weeks; as you were all aware in 2007 teams are raising their game to knock off the undefeated. We are taking every teams best shot and are dealing with injuries. I noted a previous comment in the thread about how we haven't had any serious injuries. Well Sed Ellis is a MASSIVE loss to this side. He has been taking double teams and allowing our other defensive players space and time one and one. With him in the side expect a much stiffer test against the run.

There are too many playmakers on either offense to contain them so it will come down to defence and points IMO. I think everybody hear KNOWS how to beat the Saints, pressure on the QB whilst maintaining solid coverage. But surely thats a copy and paste effort for every team every week? Yes Gregg Williams has been abused by Belichek before. No doubt. But then GW has never had this offense on the same side of the field as well.

For me the REAL key on both sides to win the game is contained aggressive defence to cause turnovers and pressure. If you play the bend don't break against our offence, not going to happen. Ditto to us Randy and Welker will get there yards, its a given. But preventing TD's will make a huge difference in the later stages.

Anyway I think its a fascinating game, and after meeting a fair few Pats fans when you came over to hand the Bucs a humbling, I made a drunken promise that I would pop on here and have the craic with you all.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

That's a good read, but there's really only one key to beating the Saints: Get Drew Brees out of his rhythm. Hit him early and hit him often. Keep the pressure coming right up the middle.

Thats funny, because thats exactly the way to stop Brady

 

[JSn]

Thats funny, because thats exactly the way to stop Brady

Hey if it wasn't for stating the obvious we'd have very little to talk about here...