The Definitive 'Are We the #2 Seed Right Now?' Thread

[mayoclinic]

With 6 games left in the regular season things currently stand as follows:

- Indy at 10-0 is pretty much assured the 1st seed. They have games with Houston next week (on the road) and Denver, who is fading fast. They have divisional games against Jacksonville and Tennessee, and finish with the Jets. Hard to see them being worse than 14-2.

- Pats are 7-3, with NO a big game next week. Week 17 at Houston also has potential, as the Texans are a borderline playoff team. Miami and Buffalo are divisional games on the road, but very winnable. Carolina and Jacksonville at home should be wins. 11-5 seems realistically the worst that could happen, with 12-4 more likely and 13-3 not impossible.

- Bengals are 7-3, with a bunch of easy games left - Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City. Then again, Oakland was supposed to be an easy game, too. The Jets should be easily beatable. Minnesota and San Diego will be challenges. It's hard for me to imagine that the Bengals will run the table. I'm guess 12-4 or 11-5.

- Chargers are 7-3. Cleveland, Washington, Kansas City and Tennessee look like wins. Dallas and Cincinnati will be challenges. I can't see SD running the table given their lack of defense and weak running game. But I wouldn't be surprised to see the SD-Cincinnati game determine which team finishes 12-4 with the #3 seed and which one finishes 11-5 with the #4 seed.

- Steelers are 6-4, coming off a loss to KC, and having lost to Cincinnati twice. They have to play Baltimore twice, as well as Miami and Green Bay. Oakland and Cleveland should be straightford, though Cincy probably thought Oakland would be straightforward, too. I think they finish 11-5 at best, with an inside track for the top wild card spot.

- Denver is 6-4, coming off 4 consecutive losses. They look like toast after a 30-3 blowout to the Chargers at Mile High. The Broncos still have to play Indy, the Giants and Philly, as well as KC (twice) and Oakland. I think they will have a challenge getting to 9-7, and will miss the playoffs.

- Jacksonville is 6-4. Who would have thunk it? But the Jags have a last 6 games, including Houston, Indy, and NE. SF and Miami are winnable, but not easy. Only Cleveland looks straightforward. I think the Jags will be pushed to finish 9-7, and may well finish 8-8. I doubt they make the playoffs. They struggled to beat the Jets and Buffalo the past 2 weeks.

- Assuming Houston beats Tennessee tomorrow night the Texans will be 6-4. Seattle and St. Louis should be winnable. Jacksonville and Miami could be close. The Texans will be underdogs to NE and Indy. I think 10-6 is possible, but doubt they finish better.

If we finish 12-4 or better, with our only possible loss coming to NO, then I think we are in good shape for the #2 seed. If we win out, I think it should be a fairly sure thing.

 

[Yehoodi]

Thanks for the legwork.

According to NFL.com after Conference Record and Common Games it's something called "Strength of Victory".
Link: NFL Tie-Breaking Procedures

Of course, NFL.com doesn't tell you what "Strength of Victory" actually is but About.com explains it like this:

"If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker."

Link: About Football Glossary - Strength of Victory

How this applies to the Pats is unclear at this point but I guess we need to root for the Jets to win out, huh?

its not unclear and you have supplied what is needed, good work. as it stands now, the SOV tie breaker is the one that decides the present seeding with the pats having the worst SOV among SD, Cinn and NE . . . thus we are #4

 

[PatsFanInVa]

If we win the next two games then we're going 13-3. There is no doubt about it. I'm not taking Carolina lightly, but I think we'll beat them so I discounted them out of that equation. If we can beat New Orleans then sweep Miami, we can win out for the rest of our season. If 13-3 cannot lock up the second seed in the playoffs then the AFC is very, very good this year.

I remember assuring everyone last year up to about week 14 that 11 wins WILL get you a playoff berth, don't even hurt your brains about that...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I don't think we should be talking about the #2 seed until after the Saints game. We win that and take care of business against Miami, let's open the topic again. Until then, it's all fantasy.

 

[The Dynasty]

Nothing is definite. I agree with other posters, lets see how we are after the next 2 weeks. Lets hope, we're at 9-3

 

[patsfan-1982]

right now the pats are still the #4 seed


i think cincy will fall to san diego when they play in a few week's and san diego who is the #3 seed right now will get the by

i say the pats stay at 4 and play the steelers at home for there first playoff game

 

[captain insano]

last i checked you're very far on the outside looking in here.

he has a long history of saying stupid things and making dumb predictions. dont waste your time on him. he was banned. they must have let him back in. he once said wes welker would have 1 td all season. that was in 07. lmao priceless.

 

[Lurks_All_Day]

I bet we'll play you guys in the Wildcard round. You being the 3 seed us being the 6. That said, I don't like our chances in Foxboro in January with a first year starter at QB.

Put down the pipe.
Canned Tuna won't be seeing any wildcard seed this season. Or any seed, unless Ricky wants to share his farm stock LOL. The AFCE champs 2008 back to where they belong, < .500 sorry.

 

[HarkDawg]

nothing is "Fixed" like a position to finish up in..... The PATS need to play good consistent Football and they will get their seed. Stop Speculating.

 

[Marqui]

I don't think we should be talking about the #2 seed until after the Saints game. We win that and take care of business against Miami, let's open the topic again. Until then, it's all fantasy.

Pretty much.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

its not unclear and you have supplied what is needed, good work. as it stands now, the SOV tie breaker is the one that decides the present seeding with the pats having the worst SOV among SD, Cinn and NE . . . thus we are #4

Cincy is 2-1 while NE is 1-1 in common opponents (beating Baltimore twice, NE just once). I assume that is how it works and makes Cincy #2.
Fyi, Common opponents remaining are the Jets for Cincy and Houston for NE. Hard to believe but we may end up having to root for the Jets in week 17. (rooting for the Jets in week 17? Where have I heard that before?).

SD is 2-2 in common opponents (Losses to Balt and Denver. Wins against Denver and Miami). We are 2-1 (Miami and Balt with a loss to Den). We should be #3 (not that is matters at this point). It appears that Miami is the last game we have in common with SD (Tenn for SD). This adds just one more small wrinkle of importance to the Miami game. If we beat Miami I believe we have the common opponent tie breaker locked up over SD (though I could have missed something......)

 

[PatsBoy12]

Let's beat the Saints next monday night, then we can talk about the #2 seed...

Agreed. In all reality, we should be 10-1 right now, but . . . Anyway, I just hope we can handle NO.

 

[Yehoodi]

Cincy is 2-1 while NE is 1-1 in common opponents (beating Baltimore twice, NE just once). I assume that is how it works and makes Cincy #2.
Fyi, Common opponents remaining are the Jets for Cincy and Houston for NE. Hard to believe but we may end up having to root for the Jets in week 17. (rooting for the Jets in week 17? Where have I heard that before?).

SD is 2-2 in common opponents (Losses to Balt and Denver. Wins against Denver and Miami). We are 2-1 (Miami and Balt with a loss to Den). We should be #3 (not that is matters at this point). It appears that Miami is the last game we have in common with SD (Tenn for SD). This adds just one more small wrinkle of importance to the Miami game. If we beat Miami I believe we have the common opponent tie breaker locked up over SD (though I could have missed something......)

yes you are correct common opponents (well games actually) is a higher tie breaker, but you need at least 4 games minimun for that tiebeaker to come in effect, i haven't double checked but i thought i saw that none of the three teams have 4 common games during the 16 game season, i could be
wrong . . .

Two Clubs
Head-to-head, if applicable.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss.
Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in conference games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

 

[upstater1]

Agreed. In all reality, we should be 10-1 right now, but . . . Anyway, I just hope we can handle NO.

If the Patriots are going to lose one game, this is the game to lose.

So, talk of the bye will continue even after a loss. The Cincy loss to Oakland opened all discussions up. New England can easily get the #2 seed with a 12-4 record provided the loss is to a NFC team.

 

[Ryan]

The Patriots are the 2nd best team in the AFC, no doubt in my mind. With that being said, I believe things will work themselves out and the Pats will end up with the #2 seed. The Bengals aren't used to winning and could stumble down the stretch, and the roll the Chargers are on can't last the rest of the regular season. The Pats will wind up the #2 seed.

 

[Metaphors]

Pats vs. Cincy
Pats Wins (NYJ, BAL), Losses (NYJ, DEN), Pending (HOU)
Cincy Wins (BAL, BAL), Losses (DEN, HOU), Pending (NYJ)

Next tie-breaker is SOV. While Pats are currently lagging behind, upcoming Cincy games with CLE and DET will almost certainly drag that down. Assuming they have the same result with the remaining big non-conference games (NO and MIN), the Pats look to have the SOV advantage by the end of the year.

Next tie-breaker is SOS which Pats should have a healthy lead over the Bengals by the end of the year.

Pats vs. Bolts
Pats Wins (BAL, TEN, MIA), Losses (DEN), Pending (MIA)
Bolts Wins (DEN, MIA), Losses (BAL, DEN), Pending (TEN)

SD has some doormats remaining on the schedule (KC, CLE, WAS) that should cause their SOV to nosedive. Also Pats should have no problem with the Bolts in SOS.

So I'm really not concerned about tie-breakers. My biggest worry is with SD winning out and the Pats losing one game. That would set up the Pats without an off week, having to win on the left coast and then go to Indy...pretty much the 2006 scenario. Add in a roadie to Houston in week 17 and that is a tough path to the title.

I would personally rather finish in the #4 spot and take on Indy first. The Pats would then get a week off after the trip to SD before the Super Bowl.

 

[mayoclinic]

The bottom of the AFC playoff race is turning into quite a dogfight.

Assume that Indy, NE, Cincy and SD are the division winners at this point. Also assume that Houston beats Tennessee tonight. Then next week you have:

1. 6-4 Houston vs. 6-4 Jacksonville. One will be 7-4 with the inside track on a playoff spot, the other 6-5 and in the pack.
2. 6-4 Pittsburgh at 5-5 Baltimore. If the Steelers win, they're 7-4 with the inside track on a playoff spot. If Baltimore wins, both teams are 6-5 and it's wide open.
3. 6-4 Denver hosting the 6-4 NY Giants. With the Broncos in free fall and Orton injured, the Giants have to be favored in this one. Win and the Broncos are back in the hunt. Lose and they're 6-5 and in the middle of the pack looking up at the leaders.
4. 5-5 Miami at Buffalo. If the Dolphins win they're 6-5 and in the thick of the hunt for a playoff spot.

With no one else in the AFC better than 4-6, I think it's fair to say that those 6 teams will be fighting it out for the 2 wild card spots.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I don't see 13-3 as very likely. We haven't yet won a game in another team's stadium and we have 4 left on the road v. 2 at home.

I would take 12-4 right now if offered all the way to the bank.

For those saying it's a cream puff schedule, the Jags and Texans both have winning records. The Panthers have come around and you still need to play an B+ game to beat them. I think the Patriots should win all 3 games. And, frankly, if they hope to make noise in the playoffs they have to show they can win these games. But I'm not sure all 4 can be chalked up as obvious wins.

Obviously, if they win the next 2, they have demonstrated road proficiency, and anything is back in play. A split seems more likely, but who knows.

 

[upstater1]

Pats vs. Cincy
Pats Wins (NYJ, BAL), Losses (NYJ, DEN), Pending (HOU)
Cincy Wins (BAL, BAL), Losses (DEN, HOU), Pending (NYJ)

Next tie-breaker is SOV. While Pats are currently lagging behind, upcoming Cincy games with CLE and DET will almost certainly drag that down. Assuming they have the same result with the remaining big non-conference games (NO and MIN), the Pats look to have the SOV advantage by the end of the year.

Next tie-breaker is SOS which Pats should have a healthy lead over the Bengals by the end of the year.

Pats vs. Bolts
Pats Wins (BAL, TEN, MIA), Losses (DEN), Pending (MIA)
Bolts Wins (DEN, MIA), Losses (BAL, DEN), Pending (TEN)

SD has some doormats remaining on the schedule (KC, CLE, WAS) that should cause their SOV to nosedive. Also Pats should have no problem with the Bolts in SOS.

So I'm really not concerned about tie-breakers. My biggest worry is with SD winning out and the Pats losing one game. That would set up the Pats without an off week, having to win on the left coast and then go to Indy...pretty much the 2006 scenario. Add in a roadie to Houston in week 17 and that is a tough path to the title.

I would personally rather finish in the #4 spot and take on Indy first. The Pats would then get a week off after the trip to SD before the Super Bowl.

About Cincy, don't forget that they lost to Houston, and that the Patriots play Houston during the last week. That makes SOv irrelevant here because common opponents comes first.

I also note that we beat San Diego on common opponents.

So, I'd say the Patriots do have the inside track.

 

[aluminum seats]

"Definitive" huh? Heh.

Anyway, with the Pats tied (regarding record) for the #2 seed and considering how strongly they've finished seasons during the BB era, I don't see how they wouldn't be favored to get a bye at this point. And apart from injuries, nothing is more central to winning a SB than getting a bye.