4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here [merged 10x]

[dakevdude]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

NFL - - FOX Sports on MSN

he's gotta point. i dont disagree with the 4th down call but they should have gone with a jump or deep ball play to Moss or a slant to Welker instead of going to Faulk. but thats just my opinion...

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

There were problems, but typically this mediots don't come close to identifying the correct ones...

If you're in a 4 down situation you make that decision before first down (which by the way came after a kickoff into the EZ and a long commercial break for thorough strategic discussion which makes the TO there inexplicable). You don't make it before the third down as BB claimed he did. Clear tell was if you had you don't blow your last TO before the 4th down because your offense and ST apparently didn't know what you decided... And you cannot justify making it after 3rd down because that's emotional... And you don't justify it by saying you don't see how you didn't get a yard on that play when you needed 2...

This was crappy situational football. That is soooo un-Belichick. That was the real problem.

 

[upstater1]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

There were problems, but typically this mediots don't come close to identifying the correct ones...

If you're in a 4 down situation you make that decision before first down (which by the way came after a kickoff into the EZ and a long commercial break for thorough strategic discussion which makes the TO there inexplicable). You don't make it before the third down as BB claimed he did. Clear tell was if you had you don't blow your last TO before the 4th down because your offense and ST apparently didn't know what you decided... And you cannot justify making it after 3rd down because that's emotional... And you don't justify it by saying you don't see how you didn't get a yard on that play when you needed 2...

This was crappy situational football. That is soooo un-Belichick. That was the real problem.

Can't agree. it wasn't a clear 4th down situation. How can they make that decision on first down? If it was 4th and 5, they punt.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

the fact that you think this is a reasonable analogy to the 4th down situation is all the evidence I need that you are an idiot of the highest order.

Not really. The analogy of running through a live gun range is pretty much the real life equivilent of giving Manning the ball on your own 30. Thanks for the personal attack though. That's the number one indicator that I need that I just blew up your statistics argument.

you lack critical thinking skills and the ability to solve a problem analytically.

What's funny is that I already have my Bachelor's and am now taking a Critical Thinking class for the hell of it. As a matter of fact, you are the one lacking in critical thinking skills. You keep spewing out your statistical analysis and when I point out that a 40% chance of giving Manning the ball on our 30 is too much, you refuse to comtemplate it and instead resort to the personal attacks. That's why this accusation, coming from you especially, is hilarious.

you refuse to listen to hard facts which makes you even worse than dumb, it makes you ignorant. dumb I can deal with, ignorant I can't. I have no patience for people who put fingers in their ears and refuse to learn, it's among the worst traits of human beings. you are not worth any more of my time. bye

Actually, I listened to them, spewed them back to you, and then told you my side and told you why yours was crap. You obviously can't handle that which is why you are now saying, "bye! I'm leaving so there!". On top of that, you can spew all the statistics you want at me. The bottom line is that the 40% chance of going for it and failing happened and we lost the game as a result. But you haven't been able to comprehend that throughout the entire thread so I wouldn't expect you to now. So go ahead and tuck your tail between your legs, buddy. You won't be missed.

 

[ALP]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

he's gotta point. i dont disagree with the 4th down call but they should have gone with a jump or deep ball play to Moss or a slant to Welker instead of going to Faulk. but thats just my opinion...

no, for 2 yards u run it

 

[dakevdude]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

There were problems, but typically this mediots don't come close to identifying the correct ones...

If you're in a 4 down situation you make that decision before first down (which by the way came after a kickoff into the EZ and a long commercial break for thorough strategic discussion which makes the TO there inexplicable). You don't make it before the third down as BB claimed he did. Clear tell was if you had you don't blow your last TO before the 4th down because your offense and ST apparently didn't know what you decided... And you cannot justify making it after 3rd down because that's emotional... And you don't justify it by saying you don't see how you didn't get a yard on that play when you needed 2...

This was crappy situational football. That is soooo un-Belichick. That was the real problem.

to be honest...i think it was a spur of the moment thing by BB...he went with his gut instinct.

otherwise they would have ran it on 3rd down...

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Funny, I'd say that "Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of human beings should understand why Belichick going for it was an amazingly stupid decision".

Yeah, because it hurt the defense's feelings or something. Gotcha.

I guess it all depends on whether or not you understand percentages and statistics well enough to realize that generalized statistics are not the end all and be all in specific, targeted situations.

They're a better starting point than whatever it is that you're relying on (you still haven't given us anything even remotely verifiable- you're just working off of gut instinct)

One would think that years of proof would be enough for even the most stubborn of people. Sadly, this thread is proof that it is not.

Years of proof? Where are these years of proof? So this is how it works: Belichick's a genius innovator right up until the dice doesn't roll his way (no matter how well he plays the odds, that will eventually happen), at which point he becomes an idiot for ignoring years of proof?

Funny that you should call anyone else stubborn...

 

[Metaphors]

Re: The 4th and 2 Spot

I accept that we lost, and I feel that it's our responsibility for giving the game away.

That doesn't take away from the fact that 2 extremely close and critical games have been decided on very dubious spots, and that the NFL should address this for the future. That's not the way games should be decided.

I agree but I don't think any changes to the system would be wise. This isn't a case where the side judge made a mistake. He allowed the situation to override his eyes. He was right on the 30 yard line and Faulk was clearly (meaning his whole body) past the 30 when the ball disappeared from his view. He didn't see the ball again until Faulk was down. By that time, Faulk had clear possession of the ball...meaning the side judge didn't see any juggling from before Faulk was contacted across the 30.

The only call to make in that case is to spot the ball at the 30 and 1/2 yard line. That is the only call because that is all he could see. If an official is going to go against visual evidence and just insert the narrative he has running in his head (key play of the game, Indy undefeated and at home, big finish if I spot them short), there really isn't anything you can do to fix it. Can you imagine the uproar if a replay official moved the ball across the 30 and gave the Pats a first down?

This is especially bad because the official knew exactly where the Pats had to get for the first down. If any part of the ball is touching the 30 yard stripe, it is a first down by definition (no need to measure). He knew the outcome before he made the spot and he couldn't handle that responsibility.

The only thing to do is reprimand the official and remove him from playoff assignments, letting all officials know why they are doing it. Do it all behind the scenes since it does absolutely no good for anyone at this point to admit that this guy essentially made up the ending of this game. People either already know it or will never believe it. Either way, just do what you can to remove these officials from doing the same thing in the playoffs.

 

[dakevdude]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

no, for 2 yards u run it

sure...if they had sammy morris or fred taylor back there...i think BB didnt have much faith in marroney at this point

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Depends on what the payout is. It's always a risk vs. reward calculation. For a sufficiently worthwhile reward, sure, I'd run across the range.

Heh. Good call, man. How about for $10,000? For a playoff game, the payout would be $100,000, and for the Super Bowl $1,000,000.

And while we're talking about who agrees and who doesn't, you kinda forget to mention some others who agree with our stance: Bill Belichick and Ernie Adams (who crunches all of these numbers with Belichick). I'll take them over Harrison, Bruschi, Bill Simmons, Peter King, and whoever else you can find.

I wouldn't be so sure that BB didn't immediately regret that decision afterward, hence the facepalm.

 

[eagle eye]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

What I think people are missing in beating the "you can't know the exact percentages" drum is that the exact percentages, if we knew them, would almost certainly make the decision to go for it even easier. The Pats' offense should be far, far more likely to convert than the league average. Against a long field, the Colts' offense is far, far more likely to convert than league average. Against a short field, the Colts' offense is once again far more likely to score. The only variable that has potential to make you more likely to punt is one that's already contingent on fourth down failure, which diminishes its impact on the overall equation.

The better the respective offenses are, the easier the call to go for it is.

The numbers don't support going for it.
What numbers do you want to use, we can all find numbers to suit our argument.
If you use the numbers in the game then punting was a far better option.
If you use the average numbers for the Colts then punting was a far better option.
If you use the league average stats then the numbers favour going for it on 4th down but it would wrong to use league averages when you are facing an elite team.

The numbers using the Colts season averages are close.
The numbers using the Colts averages on the night are totally favouring a punt.

 

[RussFrancis]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

Did last night's 4th down situation remind anyone else of that horrible 4th and 13 or whatever it was in the SB 2 years ago, where we bypassed the FG attempt. Different circumstances, same awful feeling and highly questionable judgment.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

no, for 2 yards u run it

They would have NEVER made it running, NEVER, thyat would have been atricious, they went with a very high percentage pass and completed it, just a screw job by the refs prevented it from working.

 

[Kontradiction]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Can any of you that were in favor of this decision point to the last time that a team, up three or more, went for it on 4th down on their own 30 yard line? You can point to games that had huge playoff implications (like this one did) all the way back to Week 1 games. It doesn't matter to me.

Fact is, there is a damn good reason why teams don't go for it up six on their own 30. This was a stupid, stupid decision no matter which way you cut it.

 

[Deus Irae]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Yeah, because it hurt the defense's feelings or something. Gotcha.

1.) Why do you people refuse to admit that emotion plays a huge part in sports, even though the players will tell you that it does, and we see proof of it in game after game?

2.) Why do you think I'm referring only to the defense?

They're a better starting point than whatever it is that you're relying on (you still haven't given us anything even remotely verifiable- you're just working off of gut instinct)

Actually, I have supplied statistics/data in this very thread. I simply haven't been quoting the same flawed statistics over and over as some others have chosen to do, and I've been talking about the play in context, using surrounding statistics/data as part of the discussion: see "Maroney picked up a 2nd and 1 and a 3rd and 1".

Years of proof? Where are these years of proof? So this is how it works: Belichick's a genius innovator right up until the dice doesn't roll his way (no matter how well he plays the odds, that will eventually happen), at which point he becomes an idiot for ignoring years of proof?

In every major sport in the nation, we see the impact year after year. If that wasn't the case, we wouldn't need to play the games. Computer simulations would be sufficient to determine the champions of each and every league.

Funny that you should call anyone else stubborn...

It's not, really, because of something known as "context". Come on, now. You're usually better than this.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Not really. The analogy of running through a live gun range is pretty much the real life equivilent of giving Manning the ball on your own 30. Thanks for the personal attack though. That's the number one indicator that I need that I just blew up your statistics argument.

While I agree that the personal attack was pointless, how does that show that you've blown up a statistical argument that that guy didn't even make in the first place? Argue against the point on its own merits.

What's funny is that I already have my Bachelor's and am now taking a Critical Thinking class for the hell of it.

I'd hazard a guess that most of this board meets those qualifications, at least. I know I do, so I don't see how it proves anything either way.

As a matter of fact, you are the one lacking in critical thinking skills. You keep spewing out your statistical analysis and when I point out that a 40% chance of giving Manning the ball on our 30 is too much, you refuse to comtemplate it and instead resort to the personal attacks. That's why this accusation, coming from you especially, is hilarious.

So in a decision that hinges upon the relative values of several different variables, you rest your case on one variable, without having to know anything at all about any of the other values? How can you make a decision between A and B with absolutely no knowledge of what B is? That's what you're claiming when you say that 40% is too much, period.

If you're willing to look at the other side of things, then you see that our chances of losing the game if we punted were almost certainly even greater.

 

[SteveBsFan]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

You ever watch those games with a high powered offense is beating the crap out of an underdog, yet for some crazy reason the underdog has a monster 4th qtr (flukes, bad bounces, returns for TD's, etc), and all of the sudden the underdog has the favorite on the ropes. The underdog scores in the final seconds to come within 1.

Now, everyone with common sense knows in that situation, you keep pounding because the second you let the favorite off the ropes, they usually come back to pound you back. Go for the knockout while you can.

However, in the NFL, the underdog almost ALWAYS kicks the extra point and takes their chances in OT. The favorite then almost always comes back, kicks an easy FG in OT and wins. The losing coach survives another week because he made the 'safe' call, but still lost.

I want a coach who wants to win. I want a coach who will take a safety and give up points because it puts the team in better field position. I want a coach who looks at the reality of the situation and says 'This QB has been torching our defense, I have an MVP QB, an offense that has averaged 38 points a game over the past 4 games (including the colts game).. giving the ball back to them with 2 mins to go greatly increases their chance at winning opposed to NOT having the ball back at all.'

People can cry about it being a bad call, but i'll take a coach who risks his rep for the sake of winning instead of playing it safe and losing.

 

[BradyFTW!]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

Can any of you that were in favor of this decision point to the last time that a team, up three or more, went for it on 4th down on their own 30 yard line? You can point to games that had huge playoff implications (like this one did) all the way back to Week 1 games. It doesn't matter to me.

Fact is, there is a damn good reason why teams don't go for it up six on their own 30. This was a stupid, stupid decision no matter which way you cut it.

There are a lot of things that other teams don't do. That doesn't inherently demonstrate it to be a bad decision. Were you similarly up in arms when the Pats took an intentional safety to get field position? Because nobody ever did that until Belichick did, but it was still the right call. I don't remember the last time a team other than the Pats routinely threw to a LB in goal line formations, but it was the right call whenever the Pats did it.

Bottom line, Belichick does things that nobody else does with regularity. When it works, as it usually does, everyone hails him as a genius and we spend all week talking about how awesome he is and how it takes some major stones to make those decisions, and we joke about how if it had backfired people would be wrongly ripping him left and right. When it doesn't work, a lot of those same people are the ones ripping him left and right.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Re: John Czarnecki: The real problem with Belichick's call

If BB knew he was going for it on after 3rd down in his mind regardless then why drill into Pats that if they don't make it on 3rd down why not run up to line quick count QB sneak with a real good chance Colts D wouldn't be set get 5 yds. Worse case senario is we're backed up too far to go for it then punt.

 

[patsinthesnow]

re: 4th and 2 on the their own 30 - Discuss it here (Merged 9X)

1.) Why do you people refuse to admit that emotion plays a huge part in sports, even though the players will tell you that it does, and we see proof of it in game after game?

2.) Why do you think I'm referring only to the defense?



Actually, I have supplied statistics/data in this very thread. I simply haven't been quoting the same flawed statistics over and over as some others have chosen to do, and I've been talking about the play in context, using surrounding statistics/data as part of the discussion: see "Maroney picked up a 2nd and 1 and a 3rd and 1".



In every major sport in the nation, we see the impact year after year. If that wasn't the case, we wouldn't need to play the games. Computer simulations would be sufficient to determine the champions of each and every league.



It's not, really, because of something known as "context". Come on, now. You're usually better than this.

Deus is 100% correct about emotions.