Jmt57, thanks for starting this thread. I very much enjoyed all of the discussion with fans of other teams over the past few weeks.
Guess I can't post in the general Pats forum until I get to 100 posts, which should be sooner or later, but for now I'll just post here.
Anyway, I always make an appearance on these boards when the pats play Denver, and aside from last year, it's usually a good match up.
Welcome back, and thanks for the intelligent and well thought out post.
So what's different this year compared to last?
Defense, Defense, Defense...No Shanahan, No Cutler and Defense.
The D is completely different...for one, it's led by a very competent coordinator in Mike Nolan, who switched things up to a 3-4. This means Elvis Dumervil is now an LB, and he's had incredible success thus far with 7 sacks on the season.
The addition of Brian Dawkins has been HUGE. He brings an intensity this D has not had, and he's a significant upgrade over either of last year's safeties.
Andre Goodman has been brought in to play corner opposite Champ, and he's been a huge upgrade over Dre Bly. Champ's back to his old ways, DJ Williams is still one of the league's better linebackers, and Robert Ayers (rookie out of Tennessee) has quietly been very effective.
This D is for real. It may not be the best in the league (though statistically right now it is), but it's certainly a top 10 defense.
I think that's a very realistic and rational assessment. Your D has played fabulously, but I think a top 10 (possibly top 5) assessment is reasonable at this point given that it's still early and the competition hasn't been top notch.
Mike Nolan deserves a lot of credit. I hope he doesn't become Denver's **** LeBeau and serve as a thorn in our side for a decade. Great job. He's certainly exploited Dumervil's and the secondary's strengths. Brian Dawkins was always a class job, and he's clearly brought some much needed leadership to the Broncos defense.
Champ is Champ - he's burned us many times before, and has our respect, opponent or not. Your secondary and pass defense are very, very good. I know that your rush defense has have good numbers so far, but it's less clear to me that you aren't vulnerable against the run. I think you will see a fair amount of that next week. After Baltimore's stifling run defense, anything else should be easier.
Offensively, McDaniels is really doing a great job. You'd be surprised to hear that Orton is the league's 8th rated passer right now, with a a QB rating close to 100. All he's doing is managing the game and not screwing up...no INTs to this point (although sooner or later he'll throw one, it'll probably be this game), no lost fumbles...although he has had a problem picking up the blitz.
That's the one criticism I have of him so far...the Broncos O-Line is one of the top 5 in football (ranked #1 by Yahoo)...it's pretty much exactly the same as last year's, and they only gave up 3 sacks all of last year. Orton's just had trouble recognizing it, and once it's there he can't avoid it like Cutler did. Another O-Line fact: Ryan Clady set a new NFL record after the game yesterday: 20 consecutive games without allowing a sack. He's also only played in 20 career games
Lot of big Ryan Clady admirers on this board, me among them. I was torn between Mayo, Rodgers-Cromartie and Clady at the #10 pick in 2008. We obviously didn't go wrong in Mayo, but Clady has been a stud. I'm torn between him and Michael Roos as my 2 favorite OT's.
I'm not at all surprised by Orton's QB rating. He's obviously a bright kid who knows how to play within his capabilities and the system, and McDaniels clearly wanted a Cassel-type guy who wouldn't make mistakes and cost games - sort of the anti-Cutler gunslinger mentality. I thought the whole Cutler thing was ridiculous, and was mostly engineered by his agent as a way to get a big new contract; I was appalled how much the public and media bought into his sob story about feeling "dissed". You're much better off without him. My guess is you will win the division this year (SD has no defense and no running game, which is not a recipe for long term success), after 4 years of no playoffs under Shanahan and Cutler. Josh was always a class act for us, and I wish him success (especially against the Chargers, just not against us).
I think Cutler holding on to the ball is key. We should be bringing a lot of pressure and trying to get him to make mistakes.
You'll catch a break with Buckhalter being hurt...doesn't look like he'll play, and he's been fantastic so far, averaging over 7 yards per carry. Knowshon has been great though, a really tough runner with great moves. If it's just him and Lamont Jordan though, I don't expect us to get the 150 yards a game we've been getting so far. Should still see at least 100 rushing yards though next week out of this offense.
Gaffney's been a very pleasant surprise thus far, and Stokely has been fantastic, although he's been injured the last couple of weeks. Marshall is getting more and more comfortable by the week, and I expect him to get more and more receptions each week. Eddie Royal's been VERY quiet this season, but as Marshall picks it up, I think Royal will too.
There's a lot of depth with Denver at WR, Orton's got plenty of options.
That's pretty much it...Broncos are playing very, very well right now, they're very confident, they're at home, and their defense has been superb.
If Orton can continue to avoid the mistakes, I see no reason for this game to be more than 7 points one way or the other.
I'm looking forward to it.
I think it's going to be a game of who makes the least mistakes. If Orton continues to play mistake-free ball, doesn't give us any freebies, and we don't execute, the game will be close, as you predict. If we get ahead and can rattle Orton into some mistakes the game could become one-sided. You haven't been down by much so far this season, and I don't think you have the firepower to come back from 2 TDs or more down if we get a lead. The game could easily be low-scoring and close, but we could end up scoring 30 or more points if our defense puts some points on the board and we get a comfortable lead.
Defensively I see us focusing on shutting down your running game, containing Marshall (probably with McGowan or Meriweather helping out), and pressuring Orton. I'm hoping Derrick Burgess shows up this week, we could use him. Our secondary is very, very good and after Flacco and Matt Ryan I don't see Orton as a major threat. Unless we give up points to your defense (and our offense has already given up 14 points this year) I don't see you getting more than 17 points, and probably less. If you take away the 2 touchdowns our offense gave up, our defense is average 14 PPG. The Ravens are 2nd in scoring and 3rd in total offense, but our defense still only gave up 14 points, and stopped them at the end of each half. So to my mind it comes down to just how good your defense really is.
The Jets held us to 9 points, but that was without Welker, with a lot of pressure on Brady, and with terrible red zone execution. We had our opportunities. Otherwise we've been averaging 26 PPG (25 against Buffalo, 26 against Atlanta, 27 against Baltimore) which would put us in the top 10, right up with Indy. We're capable of much more. I think you have your work cut out holding us to less than 17 points, if we execute. We're still rusty on offense. How we do against your defense will be a good litmus test of whether the offense is coming around.
As you say, you've had a great year so far, and I look forward to a good game.
