Anyone Else Think Connor Barwin Is Overrated?

[TriplecHamp]

I dont beleive Barwin is Overrated as most have him as a late first, early-mid second rounder. On the other hand some of the people on this board would take him over maybin, brown etc. which has me scratching my head...Alot! I have seen plenty of games on all of these DE/OLB hybrids and Have to say that Barwin has a high ceiling but not as high as he is made out to be on this board. Hate him at #23, love him between #34-#47.

While I may be new here I have been on this site for 3 months. I know your guys feelings on Barwin, Maualuga, etc.

 

[PatsandTrojans55]

Here are some examples from the previous 2 years:

2007:

Denver/Jax:
First (#21), Third (#86), Fifth (#198) 973
traded for
(#17) 950[/B]

Jets/Carolina:
First (#25) 2007, Second (#59), Fifth (#164) 1056
traded for
(#14) and Sixth (#191) 1116



2008:

Baltimore/Jax
First (#26), Third (#71), Third (#89), Fourth (#125) 1127
traded for
(#8) 1400

Bal/Hous:
#26, Third (89), Sixth (189) 861
traded for
#18.

900


Thanks Bucky,
I will put the values in BOLD. Dabruinz is right about the Value chart being a guideline but if he thinks the Texans would trade pick 15 (valued at 1050 points) to the Patriots for pick 23 and 3rd round pick 89 (which both total 905 points) then he should become VP of operations for the Patriots stat.

No way would they not hold out for one of 3 second round picks from the Patriots like pick #58 (which combined with #23 total 1070 points) that is the more likely scenerio because teams trading up generally pay a "move up deseration premium" and are happy to, so they get their guy. Only teams desperate to trade down to save money give up some of their leverage to move back.

I noticed a couple patterns here:
1st: teams moving up from 21-26 to 17 or 18 give up their 3rd and extra. If they go to 14-16 then it looks consistent that a 2nd round pick is required at least.

2nd: Unless teams are desperate to move and save money the points look to be within at least 50 points of the charted points with the team moving up paying alittle extra for the coveted player. If you go back some more years you will see this same pattern. The Patriots have made a living trading back and getting the "Draft Day coveted player premium extra value pick".

Great Post Buck.

 

[BPF]

I didn't see this posted but he's Andy Hart's take from PFW: Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog Blog Archive Barwin a perfect fit?

The name Connor Barwin continues to be tied to the Patriots this pre-draft season. The DE/OLB/TE out of Cincinnati has been compared so often to former New England OLB Mike Vrabel it’s actually starting to get a bit sickening. Now we have reports that the Patriots have scheduled a visit with Barwin at Gillette Stadium (one of the 30 such visits the team is allowed to have with prospects in Foxborough).

But I’m not sold that Barwin is quite the perfect fit that everyone seems to make him out to be at this point in the process. I see the Vrabel thing. Watch him on film and he really looks just like Vrabel, especially when catching TD passes for the Bearcats. He’s just under 6-4 and weighed in at 256 at the Combine. Vrabel was listed at 6-4, 261 last season in New England.

....

If I could get Barwin late in the second round or in the third, like Vrabel, I’d be all for it. But I’m not looking to take a guy who’s played one year of defense (and who’ll have to make another transition at the pro level) in the first round. I don’t think he’d be ready to add to the pass rush from day one like the Patriots could very well need.

That’s why I’d rather see Northern Illinois’ ultra-productive Larry English get the call on draft weekend. He’s proven in college action and in postseason bowl work that he can get to the quarterback. I don’t care too much about his Combine numbers or 40 time. He knows what life on the edge is like. I think he could come in and serve as a situational pass rusher as a rookie and evolve into more than that down the road. Barwin may be the hot name and his ties to Vrabel may make him a fan favorite as a potential draft pick in New England, but I’d rather have the more productive guy that Barwin is supposedly pushing down the rankings — Larry English.

I'm high on English as well.

 

[mayoclinic]

I didn't see this posted but he's Andy Hart's take from PFW: Official Patriots Football Weekly Blog Blog Archive Barwin a perfect fit?




I'm high on English as well.

See post #52 under this thread. Then fast forward to this point.

 

[mesoslo]

I dont know if this has been mentioned, but barwin is not very strong. Barwin only got 21 reps. Barwin wont be able to play from a 3 point stance consistently cause teams will run right at him.

If you put him as a LB, there are LB in the draft that are very athletic like barwin but have a lot stronger strength, like brian cushing, marcus freeman, kaluka maiava.

 

[sinned86]

I dont know if this has been mentioned, but barwin is not very strong. Barwin only got 21 reps. Barwin wont be able to play from a 3 point stance consistently cause teams will run right at him.

If you put him as a LB, there are LB in the draft that are very athletic like barwin but have a lot stronger strength, like brian cushing, marcus freeman, kaluka maiava.

First of all, I don't think there's a strong correlation between reps at the combine and strength against the run. Strength against the run comes a lot more from lower body strength - "sand in the pants."

Secondly, 21 reps at the combine (then 23 at his Pro Day) isn't a bad showing at all. For me, the bench press only raises red flags if there's something anomalously low like 15 or less. Anything above 20 is good enough for me. Barwin possesses good size presently (6' 4'' 256) and a frame to add on more pretty easily imo.

Thirdly, Barwin is more athletic than any of the other names you put out there (look at all the measurables) if you look at the overall numbers. Freeman had a great workout but really his productivity senior year wasn't close to Barwin's and despite his strong bench press, hasn't shown he can take on blockers consistently and has a slight frame (6' 0'' 239).

Barwin's upside is greater. Like any of the OLB projects, some aspects of his game will be tested and may not be NFL ready including the ability to take on the run consistently.

However, not too much has really given me more pause about Barwin's projected ability against the run than other OLB projects.

 

[jays52]

I wish I had a lot stronger strength. That way my strength would be stronger and not redundant in the least.

When I sober up tomorrow morning, I'll write something far more meaningful and insightful for the position. Oh, and the next installment of the non-numeric evaluation (on guard, douchebag haters!) will be up as well whenever I deem my brain worthy of cognitive thought.

Oh and uh, Akmed and Clone Army, looking forward to your highly educated and valued detraction! I'll be sure to use instincts as a euphemism for intelligence, film study, recognition and any other football type term that insinuates actual knowledge and is seemingly offensive to message board poseurs or equally inept football dilettantes.

 

[patchick]

You know, I really like Larry English a lot. And his sky-high Wonderlic score is another interesting data point. But there's something people keep saying that I find kind of bizarre. Take this from Andy Hart:

If I could get Barwin late in the second round or in the third, like Vrabel, I’d be all for it. But I’m not looking to take a guy who’s played one year of defense
...
That’s why I’d rather see Northern Illinois’ ultra-productive Larry English get the call on draft weekend. He’s proven in college action and in postseason bowl work that he can get to the quarterback. I don’t care too much about his Combine numbers or 40 time.

OK, we're supposed to toss out Barwin's superior size and all-around athleticism because English has proven he can get to the quarterback. Because in the long run, agility and explosiveness mean nothing compared to the fact that English tallied 8 sacks in the MAC while Barwin only got 11.5 in the Big East. Umm...

Yes, I understand that Barwin only did it for one season. But the fact is that Barwin put up better numbers as a pass rusher during the first year of his life on defense than English did in ANY season, and against generally stiffer competition. It seems like the fact that Barwin has such eye-popping measurables is creating a myth that he did nothing on the field. Darned peculiar, that.

 

[mayoclinic]

You know, I really like Larry English a lot. And his sky-high Wonderlic score is another interesting data point. But there's something people keep saying that I find kind of bizarre. Take this from Andy Hart:



OK, we're supposed to toss out Barwin's superior size and all-around athleticism because English has proven he can get to the quarterback. Because in the long run, agility and explosiveness mean nothing compared to the fact that English tallied 8 sacks in the MAC while Barwin only got 11.5 in the Big East. Umm...

Yes, I understand that Barwin only did it for one season. But the fact is that Barwin put up better numbers as a pass rusher during the first year of his life on defense than English did in ANY season, and against generally stiffer competition. It seems like the fact that Barwin has such eye-popping measurables is creating a myth that he did nothing on the field. Darned peculiar, that.

Shhhh. He's a "workout warrior", remember? He's done nothing on the field in 4 years at Cincinnati. We're creating mass hysteria over him based solely on his measurables.

At the sound of the chime you will wake up, and will remember nothing of Barwin's on field productivity. He is a workout warrior, nothing more.

 

[BPF]

Shhhh. He's a "workout warrior", remember? He's done nothing on the field in 4 years at Cincinnati. We're creating mass hysteria over him based solely on his measurables.

At the sound of the chime you will wake up, and will remember nothing of Barwin's on field productivity. He is a workout warrior, nothing more.

I don't think he is only a "workout warrior" but the fact remains that before the combine and workouts he was viewed as a 3rd/4th Rd type of player and now people are saying he is a late 1st. There is a surprise factor as well with opponents this past year that we need to account for, I'm sure they would have adjusted to Barwin's speed this upcoming season and schemed for him. He is going to be a good pro, no doubt in my mind, but the draft is not only about acquiring players but doing so in the right spot, value, and I don't think you can draft a player who isn't going to be a starter or contribute very regularly on offense or base defense in Rd 1 and early Rd 2. But with three 2nd Rd picks maybe the Pats can afford to draft a player like Barwin early and play him as strictly a rusher on pass sets and on STs. I think what you don't want to do with this kid is confuse him in year 1 with 1st and 2nd down OLB responsibilities in the Pats scheme.

When you talk about level of competition, for fairness purposes, you should look at whom Barwin's sacks game against: 2 vs Eastern Kentucky, 1 vs Miami (OH), 1 vs Marshall, 2 vs Rutgers, 3 vs Pittsburgh and 1 vs Hawai, he was shut out vs Oklahoma, Akron, Connecticut, South Florida, Louisville, West Virginia and Syracuse. Granted that sacks aren't the only meaningful stat and don't really measure the true value of a player's worth to a team but people bring up sacks and level of competition when comparing Enlgish to any other OLB prospect.

Here are English's stats: Larry English Stats, News, Photos - Northern Illinois Huskies - NCAA College Football - ESPN

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think he is only a "workout warrior" but the fact remains that before the combine and workouts he was viewed as a 3rd/4th Rd type of player and now people are saying he is a late 1st. There is a surprise factor as well with ooponents this past year, I'm sure they would have adjusted to Barwin's speed this upcoming season and schemed for him. He is going to be a good pro, no doubt in my mind, but the draft is not only about acquiring players but doing so in the right spot, value, and I don't think you can draft a player who isn't going to be a starter or contribute very regularly on offense or base defense in Rd 1 and early Rd 2. But with three 2nd Rd picks maybe the Pats can afford to draft a player like Barwin early and play him as strictly a rusher on pass sets and on STs. I think what you don't want to do with this kid is confuse him in year 1 with 1st and 2nd Rd OLB responsibilities in the Pats scheme.

When you talk about level of competition, for fairness purposes, you should look at whom Barwin's sacks game against: 2 vs Eastern Kentucky, 1 vs Miami (OH), 1 vs Marshall, 2 vs Rutgers, 2 vs Pittsburgh and 1 vs Hawai, he was shut out vs Oklahoma, Akron, Connecticut, South Florida, Louisville, West Virginia and Syracuse. Granted that sacks aren't the only meaningful stat and don't really measure the true value of a player's worth to a team but people bring up sacks and level of competition when comparing Enlgish to any other OLB prospect.

Here are English's stats: Larry English Stats, News, Photos - Northern Illinois Huskies - NCAA College Football - ESPN

Before the Senior Bowl, many people had Barwin pegged as a 2nd round pick in the 47-58 range. Not just board fanatics, but professional sites.

For example, consider this thread from January 2:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/203389-nfl-draft-scout-top-64-a.html

At that time, NFLdraftscout had Barwin ranked #47. Not a 3rd-4th round pick, #47. Pre-Senior Bowl/combine/pro day. I suggested a draft of William Moore at #23, Barwin at #47, and Alex Mack at #58 (he was ranked #55 at the time). 3 months later, with some switching around of the order, I still wouldn't be at all unhappy if we got those 3 players out of the 1st day.

Again, I have nothing against Larry English. Nice player. He had nice stats as a DE. But I'm not convinced that he's a 3-4 OLB.

 

[BPF]

Before the Senior Bowl, many people had Barwin pegged as a 2nd round pick in the 47-58 range. Not just board fanatics, but professional sites.

For example, consider this thread from January 2:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/203389-nfl-draft-scout-top-64-a.html

At that time, NFLdraftscout had Barwin ranked #47. Not a 3rd-4th round pick, #47. Pre-Senior Bowl/combine/pro day. I suggested a draft of William Moore at #23, Barwin at #47, and Alex Mack at #58 (he was ranked #55 at the time). 3 months later, with some switching around of the order, I still wouldn't be at all unhappy if we got those 3 players out of the 1st day.

Again, I have nothing against Larry English. Nice player. He had nice stats as a DE. But I'm not convinced that he's a 3-4 OLB.

That list was updated 3/27.

 

[mayoclinic]

That list was updated 3/27.

If you click on draftscout they only show you their current rankings. But if you look at the posts from the thread of January 2, you can see references to their rankins from the time, where they had Moore at 23, Barwin at 47, and Mack at 55. I specifically refer to their rankings at that time in my post. I can't claim clairvoyance, so in January I was only going off of their rankings at that time.

 

[BPF]

If you click on draftscout they only show you their current rankings. But if you look at the posts from the thread of January 2, you can see references to their rankins from the time, where they had Moore at 23, Barwin at 47, and Mack at 55. I specifically refer to their rankings at that time in my post. I can't claim clairvoyance, so in January I was only going off of their rankings at that time.

In my eyes Barwin is raw, but he’d be an intriguing pick in the 2nd Rd. Maybe Draftscout was a bit ahead of the curve pegging him as a 2nd Rd talent back then, which I believe he is now, at that point but all that shows is that workouts have now moved him up to 32 in Draftscout's opinion. On other sites he was ranked lower and also moved up with them as well. My point is the combine and workouts have moved him up draftboards. Good player just not in the 1st Rd. Every year it's the same thing around this time, smoke and games by NFL personnel people.

 

[mayoclinic]

In my eyes Barwin is raw, but he’d be an intriguing pick in the 2nd Rd. Maybe Draftscout was a bit ahead of the curve pegging him as a 2nd Rd talent back then, which I believe he is now, at that point but all that shows is that workouts have now moved him up to 32 in Draftscout's opinion. On other sites he was ranked lower and also moved up with them as well. My point is the combine and workouts have moved him up draftboards. Good player just not in the 1st Rd. Every year it's the same thing around this time, smoke and games by NFL personnel people.

If you don't think he's a 1st rounder, that's fine. But my point was that he was not a concensus 3rd/4th round pick prior to the combine who's moved up based on sheer athleticism. There are other sites besides draftscout who had him as a 2nd round pick prior to the combine, and he is a borderline 1st on many boards right now.

As an aside, when I suggested Moore/Barwin/Mack at 23/47/58 in January, the response at that time was that it was unusual to find a group of prospects that early that most people could agree on (see the posts from the referenced thread). So as early as January many people seemed comfortable with Barwin as a 2nd round pick. The question is how much his workouts have pushed his stock up, and whether he is worth it.

Again, I understand that you don't agree. It would be boring if we all agreed all of the time.

 

[BPF]

If you don't think he's a 1st rounder, that's fine. But my point was that he was not a concensus 3rd/4th round pick prior to the combine who's moved up based on sheer athleticism. There are other sites besides draftscout who had him as a 2nd round pick prior to the combine, and he is a borderline 1st on many boards right now.

As an aside, when I suggested Moore/Barwin/Mack at 23/47/58 in January, the response at that time was that it was unusual to find a group of prospects that early that most people could agree on (see the posts from the referenced thread). So as early as January many people seemed comfortable with Barwin as a 2nd round pick. The question is how much his workouts have pushed his stock up, and whether he is worth it.

Again, I understand that you don't agree. It would be boring if we all agreed all of the time.

Good points but we do agree, that the combine and workouts have moved him up on all draftboards.

 

[klinefan]

I think he's overrated on patsfans. where you'd think he'd be the second coming.

All the clips (and I admit it's not much) of him I've seen are he's either running around or through OT, most of whom wouldn't sniff the NFL. I don't know how that works in the NFL. Probably not as well.

One site said that he wasn't "quick twitch". Obviously he's a good athlete and he may have potential but will he be able to set the edge? Does he have the strength? He's going to have to learn how to play OLB, and a lot of pass rush moves, doesn't look like he really has any.

I guess he has potential, but from here it seems like he's can't miss. I remember this site getting really excited about Kai Parham, not saying they're the same, just that some perspective is maybe warranted.

Shawn Crable is pretty good...are you sure Barwin is better than him? He had ungodly amounts of TFL and sacks. I'd be more positive about him than Barwin and he was a 3rd round pick.

 

[JoeShmoe]

Its a good question actually .. does Barwin project to be a whole lot better than Crable?

 

[patchick]

If you don't think he's a 1st rounder, that's fine. But my point was that he was not a concensus 3rd/4th round pick prior to the combine who's moved up based on sheer athleticism.

Back in January, 2 weeks before the Senior Bowl, I posted this handy summary:

With the Connor Barwin lovefest starting already, I thought I'd take a look and see where various "experts" are projecting him at this stage:

#46 NFLDraftScout
#65 National Football Post
#69 The Huddle Report
#82 DraftCountdown

Out of top 100:
Great Blue North
FFJungle
Consensus Draft Services

That will doubtless tighten up over time (probably toward the higher end)

So the two (IMO) most reliable sources had him at #46 & #65 that early, and this board was already in lovefest mode based on his actual football performance. And sure enough, the ratings have indeed tightened up toward the higher end as draftniks caught up with the player. It's only natural and reasonable that a guy who suddenly finds his intended position as a senior will be a "late riser." (In fact, I recently came across a top-300 list compiled last August that didn't include Clay Matthews at all. Yet for some reason nobody seems to care about that in his case.)

 

[BPF]

Back in January, 2 weeks before the Senior Bowl, I posted this handy summary:



So the two (IMO) most reliable sources had him at #46 & #65 that early, and this board was already in lovefest mode based on his actual football performance. And sure enough, the ratings have indeed tightened up toward the higher end as draftniks caught up with the player. It's only natural and reasonable that a guy who suddenly finds his intended position as a senior will be a "late riser." (In fact, I recently came across a top-300 list compiled last August that didn't include Clay Matthews at all. Yet for some reason nobody seems to care about that in his case.)

Good points but Matthews has played D all 4 yrs. Thanks for the ranking summary prior to combine and workouts.