If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter...

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

I think he'll be gone either way. If he's not competent after 3 full seasons of learning behind the GOAT, what's the purpose in resigning him? I and many others feel this is still the best team in the division and any competent backup SHOULD be able to win us the division with adequate play.

If he performs okay, takes us to the playoffs, and starts looking for big money we'll just say go ahead like the other former Pats who hit the FA jackpot and went on to be half as effective on lesser teams. Brady most likely won't miss any time and if he does it's a few games at the most. I'd rather sign one of these FA QB's and cross my fingers.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

Isn't it better to see what he can do this year before speculating on the future?

Anything might happen.

Tomorrow may never come.

 

[fair catch fryar]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

talk about looking way far ahead.

He hasn't even started and played a full game.

I'm just worried about tomorrow.

Thank you. This is how I feel too. I only hope were having this discussion after we clinch the East by week 14 with a 10-4 record.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

IMO, it is important to note that Anderson was an RFA and was given the highest tender ($2.562 million). A team would have to give up a 1st and 3rd in return for signing Anderson away from the Browns. In other words, the Browns controlled Anderson's services when they and he agreed to the deal which ended him giving over $5.4 million than he was originally going to make this year.

In order to be able to prorate a signing bonus in the 2011 season, the deal would have to be for 4 years (2008,2009,2010,2011)

Yup, which is why I suggested offering Cassel about $5M more than he was going to make this year (had he not been named the starter here...) while he is still under this teams control. Plus another $1M or so plus incentives for being potential 2009 starter insurance here...

Lots can happen between now and say game 16 that would impact his value...good and bad.

That's the beauty of a 3 year extension signed this season...the ability to spread it over 4 years. Taking some of the cap hit now and leaving less for a post trade scenario.

If he plays very well and is in demand two things would happen - he'd have gotten some significant injury insurance security up front while he's at risk here and see his big paday around the same time in 2010 as any team he went to would likely want to extend him on their own deal to be their then 28 year old locked up starter post trade.

And what we'd likely net in trade vs. a comp pick and increased pressure on O'Connell would potentially be well worth $2.5M in dead cap spread over the last 2 years of his extension with us. I also think Tom's cap hits will be less than projected over those seasons as his own 3-5 year extension gets taken care of in 2009.

I think it's a pretty decent risk/reward scenario for both sides. I wouldn't necessarily do it today, but I'd start kicking the idea around over the bye if he's performing well...

 

[Miguel]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

If he plays very well and is in demand two things would happen - he'd have gotten some significant injury insurance security up front while he's at risk here and see his big paday around the same time in 2010 as any team he went to would likely want to extend him on their own deal to be their then 28 year old locked up starter post trade.

If Cassel plays well and is not extended, he gets his big payday in March,2009 and will be able to control where he goes.

I just do not see Cassel if he is playing at a high level agreeing to a deal that ties him to the Patriots past the 2009 season without getting serious coin in February/March 2009. In order for the Pats to be able to trade Cassel in 2009 he has to be on the roster when the 2009 League Year starts in March, 2009. In your deal
are you including an option bonus for 2009??
or a roster bonus for 2009???
what do you propose his salary for 2009 to be???

Please remember that his 2010 salary can only increase by 30% over his 2009 salary because as of now 2009 will be the last capped year. So, if his 2009 salary is $1,000,000 his 2010 salary can only be $1.3m million.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

I imagine that's what they said about Anderson...

Contract Information for Derek Anderson:

2/29/2008: Signed a three-year, $24 million contract. The deal contains $14.5 million in guarantees, including a $7 million signing bonus. Another $1 million is available through incentives based on Pro Bowls and performance. 2008: $950,000, 2009: $1.45 million (+ $5 million roster bonus), 2010: $7.45 million (+ $2 million roster bonus), 2011: Free Agent

Now, this deal was signed on the eve of FA rather than tagging him. I would imagine if they'd approached him earlier - say late November - they might have gotten him for less. He was supposedly seeking a 6 year deal when he settled for essentially $8M (from Cleveland). The dead cap on him if they trade him after this season will be <$5M.

If you offered Cassel a 3 year $20M deal with $5M in signing bonus and much of the rest in option or roster bonuses, the dead cap for trading him in 2010 would be $2.5M spread over the 2010-11 seasons. Signing a vet worth having for 2008-2009 would likely cost you close to that, so it might be worth a small risk to control his rights a little longer...

I think Cassel is a pretty smart kid with a healthy but highly manageable ego who knows had Tom not been hurt even with Bill's recommendation he'd have been lucky to get a legit shot at starting in the NFL going forward let alone on a deal that would have paid him much more than minimum for a look see...

His stock is rising, but ego aside that can change in a heart beat through no real fault of your own - including things like a blown ACL... Bird in the hand.

There are several big differences between Cassel and Anderson:

1.) As Miguel pointed out, the Browns had the leverage with Anderson because his choices were taking about $2.5 million and risk having his stock drop this year and not being able to cash in on the open market next year. Cassel will either be an UFA or a franchised player looking at almost $15 million guaranteed for one year. If you were Cassel, would you take $15 million for one year or $20 million for three where less than $15 million is guaranteed?
2.) Anderson was pretty much a guaranteed starter for the short term. Cassel would most likely be holding a clipboard for 2-3 years. Most players want to start. Would Cassel rather sit behind Brady as insurance of the unliklihood that Brady is a shell of his former self when he comes back than be a starter on another team? For a guy starting to hit the prime of his career.

I still think the best option for Cassel is to franchise him and trade him if he performs. If he is a viable NFL starter this year, I see little to no chance of him being back (and little is very optimistic). The best the Pats can hope for in that scenario is a first day pick in a trade. The worst is a pretty good compensatory pick in 2010 (well assuming the Pats aren't really active in free agency next offseason).

 

[MoLewisrocks]

You can still control him via tag and trade, especially if he performs very well...

You could use lots of combinations of roster/option bonus language as well as guaranteed language and playing time incentives triggered automatically via trade - some designed to secure his freedom going forward unless he's starting and still providing him with some pretty decent base security particularly if offered in the next 3-4 weeks...

Brady did an incremental deal coming off a Superbowl MVP... It's not entirely unheard of, especially around here. Loyalty is a two way street. Bill has shown his to Matt to the displeasure of many kneejerk fans and media. Maybe Matt is also the kind of guy who would be comfortable returning the favor.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

Isn't it better to see what he can do this year before speculating on the future?

Anything might happen.

Tomorrow may never come.

All true. But that didn't stop folks from discussing an 19-0 season week 6 of last year. Or discussing repeating a 19-0 season before the playoffs. Or discussing going undefeated this season before winning a single game. BB and the team takes a one game at a time approach. This board does not.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

Yup, which is why I suggested offering Cassel about $5M more than he was going to make this year (had he not been named the starter here...) while he is still under this teams control. Plus another $1M or so plus incentives for being potential 2009 starter insurance here...

Lots can happen between now and say game 16 that would impact his value...good and bad.

That's the beauty of a 3 year extension signed this season...the ability to spread it over 4 years. Taking some of the cap hit now and leaving less for a post trade scenario.

If he plays very well and is in demand two things would happen - he'd have gotten some significant injury insurance security up front while he's at risk here and see his big paday around the same time in 2010 as any team he went to would likely want to extend him on their own deal to be their then 28 year old locked up starter post trade.

And what we'd likely net in trade vs. a comp pick and increased pressure on O'Connell would potentially be well worth $2.5M in dead cap spread over the last 2 years of his extension with us. I also think Tom's cap hits will be less than projected over those seasons as his own 3-5 year extension gets taken care of in 2009.

I think it's a pretty decent risk/reward scenario for both sides. I wouldn't necessarily do it today, but I'd start kicking the idea around over the bye if he's performing well...

Again, if you are Cassel, would you rather have $15 million for one year or $20 million over 3 years. Would you rather be the highest paid back up or a decently paid starter? Why would he agree to a deal early when he would be a few months away from being one of the hottest free agents of the 2009 offseason.

You assume that if Cassel is playing well enough to give him an extremely big contract for insurance for Brady that he would be happy to hold the clipboard and potentially start if the relatively small chance that Brady can't come back (based on the information we have, it would be in the 5% chance range at worst). Cassel is a confident kid. He is going to want to lead his own offense and there are plenty of teams that would kill for even an average starter. I don't see him wanting to be Brady's back up if he can have his pick of a half dozen teams where he could get the same or more money to start. The Bears, Bucs, Jets, Titans, Chiefs, 49ers, and Lions are teams that will be in need for a new QB who can start next offseason.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

I'm just hoping he doesn't lose today's game, I'm not worrying about Franchising him

That said - can a player who has signed his Franchise tender be traded ? If so that would help.

Anyway, if he has a solid, competent season and we tendered the Franchise tag then we might get stuck with him as he might just on the $10M. If he does better than that and looks like a good starter then it would likely work better as he would realize he could get a long term deal by being tagged and traded.

Regardless, stealing the concept from Jim Mora : "Franchise ? Franchise ? I'm just hoping he can win another game".

 

[Rob0729]

You can still control him via tag and trade, especially if he performs very well...

You could use lots of combinations of roster/option bonus language as well as guaranteed language and playing time incentives triggered automatically via trade - some designed to secure his freedom going forward unless he's starting and still providing him with some pretty decent base security particularly if offered in the next 3-4 weeks...

Brady did an incremental deal coming off a Superbowl MVP... It's not entirely unheard of, especially around here. Loyalty is a two way street. Bill has shown his to Matt to the displeasure of many kneejerk fans and media. Maybe Matt is also the kind of guy who would be comfortable returning the favor.

Brady's loyalty and Cassel's loyalty are two different things. Do you think Brady would have taken less of a deal if the Pats kept Bledsoe around and the Pats told Brady that they are going to start Bledsoe over him? Cassel is probably loyal to the Pats to a point, but he grew up a 49ers fan and he has a very real chance of starting for the 49ers next year if he performs this year. Where would his loyalties lie then?

People believe far too much in loyalties in the NFL. If the situations on several teams are similiar, then loyalty can play into it. When it comes from being a back up on a team you are loyal to and a starter on another team, 99 times out of 100 the player chooses the starting position.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

There are several big differences between Cassel and Anderson:

1.) As Miguel pointed out, the Browns had the leverage with Anderson because his choices were taking about $2.5 million and risk having his stock drop this year and not being able to cash in on the open market next year. Cassel will either be an UFA or a franchised player looking at almost $15 million guaranteed for one year. If you were Cassel, would you take $15 million for one year or $20 million for three where less than $15 million is guaranteed?
2.) Anderson was pretty much a guaranteed starter for the short term. Cassel would most likely be holding a clipboard for 2-3 years. Most players want to start. Would Cassel rather sit behind Brady as insurance of the unliklihood that Brady is a shell of his former self when he comes back than be a starter on another team? For a guy starting to hit the prime of his career.

I still think the best option for Cassel is to franchise him and trade him if he performs. If he is a viable NFL starter this year, I see little to no chance of him being back (and little is very optimistic). The best the Pats can hope for in that scenario is a first day pick in a trade. The worst is a pretty good compensatory pick in 2010 (well assuming the Pats aren't really active in free agency next offseason).

I love how franchise tag projections have a way of creeping up exponentially when folks look at tagging a player they don't see as tag worthy...

The tag for QB's THIS year was $10.7M. I have no trouble guaranteeing Cassel franchise money as part of a larger 3 year deal I project someone else paying the bulk of... better yet when I can spread my signing bonus portion out over 4 years in an extension done early... At most he would be here another year. And whenever he was traded he'd be looking at an extension from his new employer to lock him up longer at lower initial cap cost. Plus he'd have several million already banked from 2008-2009. He's only 26 you know...

Brady did an incremental deal in 2002. He was due to be a FA in 2003. I'm not saying extending Cassel is a slam dunk, just its not as off the wall as some here keep opining. Guys trade off for comfort and security all the time, you just don't hear as much about them as you do the ones hell bent on grabbing for the brass ring almost from draft day on.... The tradeoff between Cassel cooperating with a tag and trade and signing an interim incremental deal here are he'd see several million dollars and guarantees of more a whole lot sooner and still see another big payday within a year while still well within a QB's prime...Again, **** happens, just ask Brady and Palmer and Brees and Pennington and...

 

[Miguel]

You can still control him via tag and trade, especially if he performs very well...

$14.4 million is a lot to pay to be able to control Cassel via the franchise tag.

You could use lots of combinations of roster/option bonus language as well as guaranteed language and playing time incentives triggered automatically via trade - some designed to secure his freedom going forward unless he's starting and still providing him with some pretty decent base security particularly if offered in the next 3-4 weeks...

Where in the CBA does it say that a player can sign a contract that only guarantees him money if he is traded???

If the Pats use an option bonus or a roster bonus in 2009, I do not expect the Pats to trade Cassel after paying those bonuses.

 

[Miguel]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

I love how franchise tag projections have a way of creeping up exponentially when folks look at tagging a player they don't see as tag worthy...

The tag for QB's THIS year was $10.7M.

As it stands right now, the franchise tag for a QB in 2009 will be $14.4 million.

Manning, Peyton Indianapolis $18,700,000
Brady, Tom New England $14,626,720
Palmer, Carson Cincinnati $13,980,000
Manning, Eli New York Giants $12,916,666
Brett Favre New York Giants $12,000,000

Average - $14,444,677

"I love how franchise tag projections have a way of creeping up exponentially when folks look at tagging a player they don't see as tag worthy..." is an unwarranted cheap shot at me and Robo.

 

[Miguel]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

That said - can a player who has signed his Franchise tender be traded ? If so that would help.

Yes, he can be.

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

Yes, he can be.

Thanks - that does help a little, as it would preserve some options if Cassel quickly signed the tag as I expect he would. Let's see how his first start since high school goes, though

 

[Rob0729]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

I love how franchise tag projections have a way of creeping up exponentially when folks look at tagging a player they don't see as tag worthy...

The tag for QB's THIS year was $10.7M. I have no trouble guaranteeing Cassel franchise money as part of a larger 3 year deal I project someone else paying the bulk of... better yet when I can spread my signing bonus portion out over 4 years in an extension done early... At most he would be here another year. And whenever he was traded he'd be looking at an extension from his new employer to lock him up longer at lower initial cap cost. Plus he'd have several million already banked from 2008-2009. He's only 26 you know...

Brady did an incremental deal in 2002. He was due to be a FA in 2003. I'm not saying extending Cassel is a slam dunk, just its not as off the wall as some here keep opining. Guys trade off for comfort and security all the time, you just don't hear as much about them as you do the ones hell bent on grabbing for the brass ring almost from draft day on.... The tradeoff between Cassel cooperating with a tag and trade and signing an interim incremental deal here are he'd see several million dollars and guarantees of more a whole lot sooner and still see another big payday within a year while still well within a QB's prime...Again, **** happens, just ask Brady and Palmer and Brees and Pennington and...

I read somewhere that this QB tag was around $14 million. Sorry, I was using bad info. But the franchise tag for the QB will probably jump quite a bit this upcoming offseaon. I know Brady's 2007 cap hit jumped from $7.3 million in 2006 to $14.6 million this year. That is going to have significant effect on the franchise tender for the 2008 offseason. One or two other top 5 QBs having similiar jumps in 2008 will affect it too. I can see the QB franchise tender being $12-13 million if your $10.7 million is correct.

Besides, it still doesn't change my point. It just weakens the argument a bit.

I still think players want to play and Cassel have next to zero percent change that he will play next year if he resigns with the Pats. It isn't like a LB where if he doesn't start, he can still get significant playing time. Cassel will only see the field in case of injuries to Brady or blowout situations. If I was Cassel, I would rather start elsewhere and I have been accused of being a huge Patriots fan homer before.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

As it stands right now, the franchise tag for a QB in 2009 will be $14.4 million.

Manning, Peyton Indianapolis $18,700,000
Brady, Tom New England $14,626,720
Palmer, Carson Cincinnati $13,980,000
Manning, Eli New York Giants $12,916,666
Brett Favre New York Giants $12,000,000

Average - $14,444,677

"I love how franchise tag projections have a way of creeping up exponentially when folks look at tagging a player they don't see as tag worthy..." is an unwarranted cheap shot at me and Robo.

I knew that I read $14 million somewhere. Thanks for validating I am not crazy. At least not crazy on this particular issue. Crazy in general is still up for debate.

 

[#56300ex]

Re: If Cassel plays like a competent NFL starter.....

If he's even remotely competent the Jets will probably sign him.

Depending on who they get to be their head coach next year

 

[Jimke]

Most of you folks are day dreaming. We've gone from vilifying

Cassel to thinking of franchising him so we can get a high draft

pick. The best we can hope for from Cassel is that he not lose

most of the games by making mistakes. Cassel has to play steady

and the defense has to play at a high level for the Pats to have

any chance at making the playoffs. Last Sunday's game was a good

starting point.