This time last year, everyone thought the Dolphins and Ravens would be easy wins and that the Seahawks would be a tough challenge. It is impossible at this point and try to pick what teams will be the doormats of the NFL.
The Colts showed a lot of cracks in the armor last year and were good/lucky enough to capitalize on other teams mistakes and win games they had no business winning (Sage Rosenfels giftwrapping a game, a defensive TD vs. the lowly Browns when Manning and the offense could only muster 3 points all game). Teams can't win those type of games year after year. Unless the Colts improve over last year, there is a good chance they lose those type of games this year.
Looking at their games last year, there are about 7 games that the Colts could have lost or should have lost if a play or two went the other direction. If they decline from last year, they are going to lose some or most of those types of games.
The Colts seem to be declining eventhough their record last year didn't show that. They were a weak playoff team last year and showed it by getting beaten by another weak playoff team in San Deigo. They could improve, but they may also take rapid decline if Caldwell is not anywhere near the coach as Dungy. Everyone thinks the Pats could win as long as they had a healthy Brady, but what if you took Belichick out of the equation? Dungy is not as good as Belichick, but he is no slouch.
Cracks in the armor? Are you talking about our pathetic run defense? It's been awful every single year, so that's a crack that showed up 10 years ago.
Offensively, we were awesome in the second half of the season once Peyton returned to health, and they finally moved Gonzo from outside into the slot. Most of those games we were terrible in were at the start of the season. The Browns game wasn't nearly as bad offensively as people who didn't watch it say. Our offense was just hardly ever on the field, and we got stopped at the goalline when we were (Again, a crack in the armor we've always had, which unfortunately, Pats fans have benefitted from).
The Colts were not a weak playoff team, and neither were the Chargers. The Colts were playing as well as any team in the NFL by the end of the season. We just got a tough draw on the road at night against a talented team, and they beat us. We likely would have won the NFC if we would have been in that conference. The Colts and Chargers were both better than any team in the NFC IMO.
Pointing out the loss of Dungy is a fair point, bc he was a good coach. But otherwise, why would people talk of the Colts possibly declining, but not the Patriots? We have a whopping 4 players on our entire roster that are over the age of 30!! One is the long snapper, one is Vinatieri, and then there is Peyton and Saturday.
Both of those guys are coming off injuries. Saturday can't possibly play as poorly as he did last year coming back from his knee injury. If he does, then he is a declining player. Still, only one guy. And Peyton will be better off and back to normal this year.
We will replace Marvin Harrison with a younger guy who is ready to step in, likely in the first round. Marvin was clearly on the downside of his career, as you can see by his lack of interest in free agency. We will likely add a DT in the second or third round of the draft. Even if we don't, we'll be better off just bc Antonio Johnson and Muir will be on our roster to start the year, which they weren't last year bc we were counting on Pit**** and Johnson.
We'll be better at LB bc Session will move to his natural WLB spot now that the mediocre Keiaho isn't being brought back. We'll be better on the OL now that Pollak, Richard, Johnson, and Ugoh have more experience. We'll be better at TE bc Robinson, Tamme, and Santi will be in their second seasons.
The Colts always seem to be at their best when noone expects it. We were thought to be declining two offseasons ago after we won the Superbowl bc we lost the likes of Tarik Glenn, Cato June, Jason David, and Nick Harper. But then, we started the next year 8-0 and had you guys beat for 3 quarters in the epic duel in the RCA Dome. So I'm pretty confident with where we are, and that we aren't "declining".