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Will the Colts like living without a salary cap?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by solman, Mar 14, 2009.

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  1. solman

    solman Rookie

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    All this talk about uncapped years has me wondering how our would be rivals, the Indianapolis Colts, will deal with one or more uncapped seasons.

    I've long been of the opinion that the Colt's backloaded contracts have created an untenable cap situation for them. [In honor of my analysis, Ryan the Colts fan has volunteered to donate to Miguel's favorite charity after the 2009 season (unless by some miracle the Colts win two playoff games)]

    In 2009 some of those negative effects start to hit.

    Marvin Harrison will count as $7.4M against the cap, but he will not play a game.
    Peyton counts as $21.2M against the cap.
    Dallas Clark costs $13.9M
    Dwight Freeney costs $11.2M
    Reggie Wayne: $7.4M
    Bob Sanders: $7.2M
    Robert Mathins: $6.9M

    I assume that some of this has been or will be restructured, but has not yet been reflected on the Colt's salary cap page.

    But its not clear what restructuring means in the context of an uncapped year.

    An uncapped year can be used to remove some of the back loading, but it can also expose the Colts to the reality of their weak financial base.

    Forbes (which I put little stock in, but I don't have a better alternative) has Indy tied for the third lowest revenue in the NFL in 2007, and the seventh lowest operating income.

    Opening a new stadium must have improved their top line, but they can't afford to compete with genuinely successful teams like New England.

    It helps that the new stadium is financed by the tax payers in a deal that is generally considered to screw the tax payers. This sweetheart deal will not only improve their bottom line, it will also put pressure on Indy to field a team that can compete with New England, even in an uncapped year.

    Ultimately I think its unclear whether the Colts benefit or not from an uncapped year. With Dungy gone, I think they are likely to continue their slide towards mediocrity whether or not there is a cap in 2010. They are unlikely to be able to gain a significant advantage by overspending, but they are also unlikely to dump salary (as other teams with limited revenues will be inclined to do) due to their local political situation.
  2. maverick4

    maverick4 Banned

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    Dallas Clark at 13.9M cap hit, is ridiculous.
    The Colts won several miracle games last year. This year their true talent will show. They might not even be a .500 team next season.
  3. Sicilian

    Sicilian Rookie

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    Peyton really didn't even return to form until halfway through the season last year. With him healthy for the whole season, I just don't see the Colts taking 4 steps backwards, even with a new coach. My prediction is 10-6.
  4. workhorse

    workhorse Rookie

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    This statement has been said before I think.
  5. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    I think the only detriment to the Colts might be that their smart cap knowledge and drafting will be less of an impact where big market teams can simply outspend them a la moneyball.
  6. BradyBranch39

    BradyBranch39 Rookie

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    I wonder if they have Minnesota on their schedule.
  7. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Polian will get new rules passed to make sure he can still rig the game.
  8. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Putting aside all disdain for the Colts, Peyton Manning is simply too good a player and I highly doubt at this stage in his career he goes below 500.

    Perhaps Dungy moving on breathes some new life into a what I perceive to be a stale player group?

    This is one of the games I circle every year. EVER YEAR!
  9. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Its a good thing that Peyton is able to win games on his own. Most players require a whole team to put one in the win column.
  10. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I like Manning as a player AND as a self depricating ad huckster. He's too good to let the team slip below .500.
  11. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Or a few guys in black and white stripped shirts helping you along each week ;)
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Division

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    It's tough for me to find 8 losses in that schedule unless Manning gets hurt again.
  13. N.Eman

    N.Eman Rookie

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    I think the same way. There is always something to jump from A to C with polian and Dictator Goodell.
  14. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Hahaha, pretty much every year. The truth is that, as long as Peyton's Peyton, the Colts will be good.
  15. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Which 8 games against which teams are you projecting as unlosable after just two weeks of free agency?
  16. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It wasn't about specific games, it was about 8 losses. As of right now, I don't see 8 losses for the Colts. Things can change, but that's really not the point of talking about it tonight, is it?
  17. MassPats38

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    I expect the reports of Indy's demise are much exaggerated.

    Polian is pretty much the reason I do not like the Colts, but that team has a way of identifying talent fitting their system and working with Manning. As long as he is playing and healthy, I don't view them as a .500 team.

    And frankly, I look forward to the game against the Colts probably more than I do the Jets and Chargers games. When the Colts start to stink again, they are just another team in the NFL.

    As for salary cap issues, it is hard to tell which NFL teams become the Red Sox and Yankees and which become the Marlins. I do not expect the Colts will be the bottom tier in the uncapped world, but how many owners do you see dumping all profits above the salary cap to field a winner? I think fans are envisioning $30 million salaries, but the reality is owners wants their profits and breaking the bank on salaries for an entire team probably isn't the way to get rich. Teams may spend more than the present cap, but I would be surprised if it was much more for any team.
  18. OhExaulted1

    OhExaulted1 Rookie

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    Ain't that the Friggin' truth. It's nothing short of football politics, with earmarks going against us.
  19. WhiZa

    WhiZa Rookie

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    Last edited: Mar 15, 2009
  20. workhorse

    workhorse Rookie

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    I think it's not going to be as crazy as many might think if there is no cap. There may be a splash at first, but it will likely soon wash out. There are only a handful of teams that will be able and willing to just flat out spend. There will be many more that will be the Kansas City Royals of the NFL since there will be n minimum cap when it comes to spending. A big factor will be the fact that guys will have to be in the league for 6 seasons instead of 4 to be UFAs. Most careers don't last that long. A large group of guys won't see uncapped free agency. Throw in the fact that any given Sunday anybody can win. All that said, I hope the work out a new CBA and don't go messing with a good thing.
  21. Terry Glenn is a cowgirl

    Terry Glenn is a cowgirl Banned

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    As much as I dislike him, PM Is legit... he Is the real deal. He has been around for far too long without being Ryan Leaf.

    10-6 is a good barometer.

    You have to give him that much cred.

    He helped me win FF... yeah, I know, irrelevant.

    He is good though. I hate to say that fwiw...
  22. Terry Glenn is a cowgirl

    Terry Glenn is a cowgirl Banned

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    Redskins = Yankees?
  23. MassPats38

    MassPats38 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Good points and I agree as to the CBA.

    I do not see uncapped years as a good thing. It cannot be denied, given the recent dynasties existing prior to the salary cap (like the Cowboys built by that stupid trade by the Vikings for Walker), that every year becomes a little more interesting and it is harder to hold on to the trophy.
  24. solman

    solman Rookie

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    Where did you (and much of the rest of the world) get this idea?

    Article 19 Section 1A of the CBA clearly states that players with 5 or more Accrued Seasons shall become a UFA.
  25. PatsFan37

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    Since MassPats quoted the bottom half of your statement, I'll quote the top, as I think that's the most telling.

    There'll be more than a few teams with low profits that will hunker down and ride out the uncapped year for several reasons: (a) a bargaining weapon against the NFLPA (b) a chance to stoke their bottom line.

    For the teams willing to spend, consider that players already get nearly 60% of revenue. If you take a few teams out of that equation, the big spenders have to make up the difference just to bring the total spending back to that of a capped year. What that means is a few headlines and the chance for the big spenders to break their own salary structure and create discontent in the ranks of their unrewarded players.

    The Patriots might take the opportunity to re-sign a few of their own. They might go after one or two high-value FAs who would otherwise not fit the cap. But I doubt they'd get into a bidding war with Snyder or Jones -- they've maintained a salary structure for years, they're not about to break it in one foolish year.

    So if the Patriots, one of the wealthier franchises, push back from the table, who stays? Will there be enough big spenders to radically change the game? I don't know, but I'm with that crazy Colts fan in thinking an uncapped year might not be as dramatic as people say.
  26. workhorse

    workhorse Rookie

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    In 2010 it's 6 years, 2011 it's five.

    Uncapped years would actually limit free agency

    The article touches on one other area. The playoff impact. The "Final Eight" plan. Where you can only sign a guy when you have a free agent signed away. The one below has more detail.

    Collective Bargaining Agreement - Q & A - NFL - CBSSports.com Football
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2009
  27. Rob0729

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    This time last year, everyone thought the Dolphins and Ravens would be easy wins and that the Seahawks would be a tough challenge. It is impossible at this point and try to pick what teams will be the doormats of the NFL.

    The Colts showed a lot of cracks in the armor last year and were good/lucky enough to capitalize on other teams mistakes and win games they had no business winning (Sage Rosenfels giftwrapping a game, a defensive TD vs. the lowly Browns when Manning and the offense could only muster 3 points all game). Teams can't win those type of games year after year. Unless the Colts improve over last year, there is a good chance they lose those type of games this year.

    Looking at their games last year, there are about 7 games that the Colts could have lost or should have lost if a play or two went the other direction. If they decline from last year, they are going to lose some or most of those types of games.

    The Colts seem to be declining eventhough their record last year didn't show that. They were a weak playoff team last year and showed it by getting beaten by another weak playoff team in San Deigo. They could improve, but they may also take rapid decline if Caldwell is not anywhere near the coach as Dungy. Everyone thinks the Pats could win as long as they had a healthy Brady, but what if you took Belichick out of the equation? Dungy is not as good as Belichick, but he is no slouch.
  28. solman

    solman Rookie

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  29. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    Hey, I read the relative section and I am still confused :confused:

    Edit: so confused I evidently don't know the difference between relative and relevant
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2009
  30. PatsWickedPissah

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