The Patriots Cap Performance Stands out, but not in a good way

[CPA_MM]

The Patriots cap performance stands out, but not in a good way.

The Patriot's cap performance 2023 stands out from the rest of the NFL clubs, besides having the second-lowest value of contracts ($194M APY) beginning the 2023 season. Those contracts also had the highest cap charges of any club.

The Ram's contract value was the lowest- only $.5M APY lower. The Rams traded off high-cost players. The Rams staffed up with low-cost draftees and street-free agents. The Rams have a high-cost elite quarterback. The Rams were the fifth youngest team. The Patriots do not have a high cap cost for an elite quarterback, have eighteen free agents compared to two for the Rams, and are the sixth-oldest club.

The NFL salary cap has two components.

1. Value. Player contracts are "bought" by a club using "cap" dollars. The adjusted average pay per year (APY) reflects the contract value.
2. Cost. The salary cap charge "for the season" is the cost.

(Data from OverTheCap and Spotrak)

I went back into history to see how the Patriots performed. Here is what I found.

In the 2021 season, The Patriots had contracts with a total value of $205M. The Patriots had 14-player contracts valued at + > $5M. The cap cost on those contracts was 81%, which is around average in the NFL. The Patriots had three contracts where cap charges exceeded the contract value.

Fast forward to the 2023 season.

New cap money available to the Patriots increased from $183M in 2021 to $225M in 2023, with $9M less dead-cap charges. The contract value for the Patriots players declined by $22M to $183M APY. The Patriots had three less player contracts = > $5M. (The Patriots made a trade mid-way in the season for J.C. Jackson, which distorted the values. The numbers quoted are without Jackson.)

The Patriot's contract value declined because the corresponding cap charges for these contracts increased. In 2021, the cap charge was 81% of the contract value; in 2023, it grew to 105%, the highest in the NFL.

Eight of the top fifteen Patriot contracts (excluding Jackson) have cap charges exceeding the contract value. (In 2021, it was three.) The competitor, the Bills, has three.

I attached a detailed PDF with the Patriot cap status in 2021 and 2023.

MM

 

[Triumph]

Hoody Man Bad

 

[1960Pats]

Hoody Man Bad

Hoody Man Gone

 

[Triumph]

Hoody Man Gone

Super Bowls gone

 

[FCB02062]

terrible. Belichick has left an indelible stain that will cripple the franchise for years to come

 

[upstater1]

Little bit shocking that the Patriots have an older roster since most of their best players are so young, but I guess having Judon, Jon Jones, Andrews, Guy, Ezekiel and Mills out there certainly changes things. But all the real talent seems to be on the young side with a lot of players on their first contracts: White, Barmore, Douglas, Gonzalez, Marcus Jones, Dugger, Onwenu, Strange, Rham.

 

[Triumph]

terrible. Belichick has left an indelible stain that will cooler the franchise for years to come

Hoody Man bad.

Nike bad too.

 

[Fubby]

Another part of the NFL game that has passed by BB…cap management! While teams were doing contract wizardry to load up on talent while also not locking them into cap help for years to come. Our genius GM constructed rosters of below average talent with zero blue chippers that was always at the cap limit.

 

[Sciz]

How are you accounting for contracts that have cap hit less than cash for the entire duration, but with large dead money after the contract has expired?

For example, I wouldn’t say that a two year, $30M contract with cap hits of $6M and $11M with $13M dead money the following year is better than just $8M and $22M and then no dead money. It’s just a conscious decision to do it differently.

 

[1960Pats]

terrible. Belichick has left an indelible stain that will cripple the franchise for years to come

Are you talking about the cap, the cheating or his horrible drafts?

 

[AQPE]

Another part of the NFL game that has passed by BB…cap management! While teams were doing contract wizardry to load up on talent while also not locking them into cap help for years to come. Our genius GM constructed rosters of below average talent with zero blue chippers that was always at the cap limit.

This reflects poorly on the Kraft’s as well, they often promote themselves as Harvard Business School-trained wizards of finance, did they rely entirely on BB for cap management?

They screwed themselves up relative to the cap going into the 2020 season, thus having to bring in Newton at a low rate with predictable results. They then went crazy spending in free agency in 2021, yielding some hits (Judon, Henry, Mills) and misses (Jonnu, Agholar) and were back to being tight to the cap in 2022.

I certainly blame BB for not doing a good job on roster building including the poor judgment in bringing in Jonnu, Agholar, Smith-Schuster, Anderson, and Rieff, to mention just a few from free agency. If, however, there is one part of the football operations where I expect the Kraft’s to contribute their own expertise it is on cap management. I’ve long believed that the Patriots philosophy of spreading the spending deeper through the roster than other more “top heavy” teams is driven just as much by Bob and Jon as by BB. After moving on (which I fully support) they literally own this one.

 

[venecol]

This reflects poorly on the Kraft’s as well, they often promote themselves as Harvard Business School-trained wizards of finance, did they rely entirely on BB for cap management?

They screwed themselves up relative to the cap going into the 2020 season, thus having to bring in Newton at a low rate with predictable results. They then went crazy spending in free agency in 2021, yielding some hits (Judon, Henry, Mills) and misses (Jonnu, Agholar) and were back to being tight to the cap in 2022.

I certainly blame BB for not doing a good job on roster building including the poor judgment in bringing in Jonnu, Agholar, Smith-Schuster, Anderson, and Rieff, to mention just a few from free agency. If, however, there is one part of the football operations where I expect the Kraft’s to contribute their own expertise it is on cap management. I’ve long believed that the Patriots philosophy of spreading the spending deeper through the roster than other more “top heavy” teams is driven just as much by Bob and Jon as by BB. After moving on (which I fully support) they literally own this one.

I suspect Bill had a paper thin staff helping out with the financial aspects of cap management. Although adding void years isn't new (actually introduced by Bledsoe's agent), it's been more and more common in recent years. Patriots use them sparingly, unlike other teams, that don't mind the eventual dead money hit to bring in talent.

If I'm Kraft, I would try to bring in some FO personnel from the Bucs or Rams who've done an incredible job of using void years and negotiating contracts to bring in and retain talent.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Notable positions the Pats ranked for 2023 (Over The Cap):

#1 TE. That's bad and won't be that way for 2024.
#18 WR. Too high.
#14 OL. Way too high.
#6 Edge.
#12 LB. Too high for the quality of players there.
#13 S. Too high.
11 CB. Too high.

Mayo and Bob will have some accounting to do to balance out the spending vs quality of players.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The Patriots cap performance stands out, but not in a good way.

The Patriot's cap performance 2023 stands out from the rest of the NFL clubs, besides having the second-lowest value of contracts ($194M APY) beginning the 2023 season. Those contracts also had the highest cap charges of any club.

The Ram's contract value was the lowest- only $.5M APY lower. The Rams traded off high-cost players. The Rams staffed up with low-cost draftees and street-free agents. The Rams have a high-cost elite quarterback. The Rams were the fifth youngest team. The Patriots do not have a high cap cost for an elite quarterback, have eighteen free agents compared to two for the Rams, and are the sixth-oldest club.

The NFL salary cap has two components.

1. Value. Player contracts are "bought" by a club using "cap" dollars. The adjusted average pay per year (APY) reflects the contract value.
2. Cost. The salary cap charge "for the season" is the cost.

(Data from OverTheCap and Spotrak)

I went back into history to see how the Patriots performed. Here is what I found.

In the 2021 season, The Patriots had contracts with a total value of $205M. The Patriots had 14-player contracts valued at + > $5M. The cap cost on those contracts was 81%, which is around average in the NFL. The Patriots had three contracts where cap charges exceeded the contract value.

Fast forward to the 2023 season.

New cap money available to the Patriots increased from $183M in 2021 to $225M in 2023, with $9M less dead-cap charges. The contract value for the Patriots players declined by $22M to $183M APY. The Patriots had three less player contracts = > $5M. (The Patriots made a trade mid-way in the season for J.C. Jackson, which distorted the values. The numbers quoted are without Jackson.)

The Patriot's contract value declined because the corresponding cap charges for these contracts increased. In 2021, the cap charge was 81% of the contract value; in 2023, it grew to 105%, the highest in the NFL.

Eight of the top fifteen Patriot contracts (excluding Jackson) have cap charges exceeding the contract value. (In 2021, it was three.) The competitor, the Bills, has three.

I attached a detailed PDF with the Patriot cap status in 2021 and 2023.

MM

The Value and Cost have to be considered in both from a present and future value standpoint. You fail to consider the future Value and Cost and that is why @Triumph simplifies his response to Hoody Man Bad. Your post reads like a "BB hater". For example, the cap contracts can spread money with void years or have guaranteed money upfront, which alter the present versus future business situations.

You use the Rams as an example so let's look at both the present and future implications of the Rams versus the BB's or RK's Pats cap strategy. In 2023 the Rams were 10 - 7 and lost in the wild card round versus the Pats who were 4 - 13 and did not make the playoffs. The Rams pick #22 in the draft, the Pats pick #3. In 2024 the Rams have a very good 36 year old QB carrying a $49.5M cap hit versus the Pats who do not have a QB. In 2024 and 2025, according to Sportrac, the Rams have $35M and $128M in cap space versus the Pats having $70M and $260M in cap space. So the Value and Cost cap management in 2024 leads to the future situations because the Pats did not push much money into future years (void years).

So to be fair the cap management question should be "Due to the Rams versus the Pats cap management in 2023, would you rather be in the Rams or Pats situtation?". I think the Rams will be a middling team with no chance of winning anything for the forseeable future whereas the Pats are completely rebuilding. I prefer not spending the future cap dollars in 2023 (BB or RK made that decision), so the cap Value and Cost look poor in 2023, but by purposedly not spending in 2023 we have more cap dollars in 2024 and 2025, and a higher draft pick. Lots of cap dollars and a high draft pick will not necessarily lead to success, so it is a management approach. Which approach do you prefer? Do you think the Rams future or the Pats future is brighter?

Statements like 'Belichick left an indelible stain", and "another part of the game that passed by BB", are comments that indicate the posters have no idea what they are looking at. Just BB bashing. I have no idea why anyone bashes TB or BB after we won 6 Super Bowls. That approach of being repeatedly negative is why I do not post as much anymore.

 

[venecol]

The Value and Cost have to be considered in both from a present and future value standpoint. You fail to consider the future Value and Cost and that is why @Triumph simplifies his response to Hoody Man Bad. Your post reads like a "BB hater". For example, the cap contracts can spread money with void years or have guaranteed money upfront, which alter the present versus future business situations.

You use the Rams as an example so let's look at both the present and future implications of the Rams versus the BB's or RK's Pats cap strategy. In 2023 the Rams were 10 - 7 and lost in the wild card round versus the Pats who were 4 - 13 and did not make the playoffs. The Rams pick #22 in the draft, the Pats pick #3. In 2024 the Rams have a very good 36 year old QB carrying a $49.5M cap hit versus the Pats who do not have a QB. In 2024 and 2025, according to Sportrac, the Rams have $35M and $128M in cap space versus the Pats having $70M and $260M in cap space. So the Value and Cost cap management in 2024 leads to the future situations because the Pats did not push much money into future years (void years).

So to be fair the cap management question should be "Due to have the Rams versus the Pats cap management in 2023, would you rather be in the Rams or Pats situtation?". I think the Rams will be a middling team with no chance of winning anything for the forseeable future whereas the Pats are completely rebuilding. I prefer not spending the future cap dollars in 2023 (BB or RK made that decision), so the cap Value and Cost look poor in 2023, but by purposedly not spending in 2023 we have more cap dollars in 2024 and 2025, and a higher draft pick. Lots of cap dollars and a high draft pick will not necessarily lead to success, so it is a management approach. Which approach do you prefer? Do you think the Rams future or the Pats future is brighter?

Statements like 'Belichick left an indelible stain", and "another part of the game that passed by BB", are comments that indicate the posters have no idea what they are looking at. Just BB bashing. I have no idea why anyone bashes TB or BB after we won 6 Super Bowls. That approach of being repeatedly negative is why I do not post as much anymore.

I think the Rams are in a much better place than the Patriots. They were a non DPI call away from playing in the DIV RD against the Bucs. They have a lot of young talented players and a good QB. They also have a good coaching staff and GM.

Talking about the approach to cap management does not = BB hater.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I think the Rams are in a much better place than the Patriots. They were a non DPI call away from playing in the DIV RD against the Bucs. They have a lot of young talented players and a good QB. They also have a good coaching staff and GM.

The Rams have a lot going for them. A rebuild is very risky. I am a risky kind of guy and prefer the rebuild because identiying top talent is statistically a lot more difficult with a high draft pick, and a 36 year old QB is in decline and inevitably gets injured over and over.

Talking about the approach to cap management does not = BB hater.

Agreed. But saying "not in a good way" when it is really a business decision that might work out or not, is being judgmental instead of balanced.

 

[Hyped]

Doesn't matter.

Only two things matter:

1.) Do we spend to the cap limit every year?

2.) Are we winning games?

For 2023, it was Yes and No.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

The Patriot's cap performance 2023 stands out from the rest of the NFL clubs, besides having the second-lowest value of contracts ($194M APY) beginning the 2023 season. Those contracts also had the highest cap charges of any club.

That simply reflects the Pats refusal to use the League supplied credit card termed a void year. All the other teams purchased players by pushing cap charges out into the future, but the Pats for whatever reason declined to do that. That means other teams risk dead money if an expensive player gets a severe injury or simply stops playing well. But it means we are playing with one hand tied behind our back. The decision to not sign DeAndre Hopkins and let him sign for more money with the Titans was nuts given our future cap space.

 

[maust]

That simply reflects the Pats refusal to use the League supplied credit card termed a void year. All the other teams purchased players by pushing cap charges out into the future, but the Pats for whatever reason declined to do that. That means other teams risk dead money if an expensive player gets a severe injury or simply stops playing well. But it means we are playing with one hand tied behind our back. The decision to not sign DeAndre Hopkins and let him sign for more money with the Titans was nuts given our future cap space.

OFC using the void year methodology would require the good judgement to do so for the right player(s), not something we've seen an abundance of here the past few seasons. You are dead right on the mistake that was not signing Hopkins, that was huge.

 

[KCSVEN]

The NFL has such huge turnover, managing the salary cap is very much related to how much you pay your stars, especially the QB.
On average 50% of the roster is different every 2 years. You need a core of a few star players.
For 2026 season, currently there is an average of 16 players per team signed.
The Patriots #1 Cap hit for 2024 is Judon under $15 million,
Patriots are the ONLY team in the NFL without a $20 million cap hit player on the roster for 2024.
Patriots have not drafted, nor signed star players, Thuney is the one guy with a big contract they let go that has played great. Judon is the only free agent that lived up to a large contract.
Guys like Onwenu you need to sign long term and pay up. They just have not had many good players and thus the lower spending.

For this team they need a couple years to add talent so if the guy is not under 28, they should not resign them.
That leaves Bryant, Wilson, Uche, Jennings, Reagor, Onwenu, as the only guys that have played NFL snaps regularly and are under 28. Everyone else, just let them go.