Where does Penix go if Pats trade back?

[Real fan 02]

Right. But let's pretend it isn't Penix. They might like Nix or McCarthy. I expect Arizona and the Chargers are open for business to trade down if a QB-hungry team decides they need to move up before all the QBs are gone.

Not that Harborough would do it.. but would you entertain if Herbert was offered for the 3rd?

 

[40yrpatsfan]

My favorite deal remains trading down 1 spot with AZ for minor compensation - eg swap 34 for their 27, plus their 4th rounder. Get something for little to no risk. Incent AZ by making them think that the Chargers want to trade up to 3.

 

[mike_usagisan]

My favorite deal remains trading down 1 spot with AZ for minor compensation - eg swap 34 for their 27, plus their 4th rounder. Get something for little to no risk. Incent AZ by making them think that the Chargers want to trade up to 3.

I think the Giants are as far down as they're willing to go in order to be sure to get a QB they want.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Not that Harborough would do it.. but would you entertain if Herbert was offered for the 3rd?

I can't imagine the Chargers actually trading Herbert in reality, but absolutely, I think you make that trade. A guy who has shown what he can do in the NFL is better than someone who hasn't.

 

[Blackluck]

The upside of trading down is of course the extra draft picks, which also gives you ammunition to trade back up.

The downside is spelled out above. A player that in theory should be available at (fill in the blank, let's say 34) now is suddenly long gone, didn't even make it to to 20.

Once that happens, what's the Plan B? You may have to reach much further than you would have for the next tier guy - and at the same time end up with less quality and less value. There's a genuine potential for a nightmare scenario draft, where you lose out on all the top three positions/prospects you were targeting.


I do love the concept of trading down and accumulating those extra picks if the team is not absolutely in love with whomever is still available at #3. But doing so can be risky and is far from a sure thing.

Two ways to approach it I think.

1. Completely punt on QB and take a Michael Pratt or Jordan Travis later in the draft (4, maybe 5.) It's a caretaker position, akin to what Houston did with Mills. Use the premium picks (rounds 1-3) to load up on positions of need. I wager the chances are zero or very close to it that NE would adopt this strategy.

or

2. Trade with the NYG but find out what it would take to move from 6 to 4 or 5 first. AZ and LAC don't want to lose out on blue chip players going to 11 (although AZ has the ammo to move back up to grab one of the top 3 receivers.) That's the only way they can guarantee getting whichever QB is left (JJ likely. As you already noted, it's a big gamble otherwise for a Tier 2 QB.)

AZ and LAC are going to charge a premium for MIN or whoever to move up. The question is, would those teams pay that price to move up for JJ? MIN can just take Penix at 11 without losing all that draft capital. (I think they only move up for Maye, but that's just a guess of course.)

 

[Ross12]

"Where does Penix go?" That's a question for mom and dad, sport

 

[jmt57]

I'm sure it is due in large part to the Patriots drafting do early - but also as an NFL fan, I'm finding myself more intrigued with this draft than any other in quite some time.

- Many teams in need of a QB, and multiple QBs that could go early.
- Multiple legitimate draft day trade scenarios.
- Besides the question of where the QBs will go, there's also plenty of quality and depth at OT and WR - both extremely important positions in today's NFL.
- No real consensus other than Caleb Williams at #1.

 

[mgteich]

Super risky, if you see a franchise QB grab him.
If you don’t think he’s a franchise QB trade down it’s that simple.

IMO, this discussion is only relevant if we don't see the two top QB's available at 3 to be a franchise QB. Even trading to 6 leaves the possibility (likelihood?) or 4 QB's and a WR in the top 5. Say you get a wink-wink from the Giants and they pick a WR. MIN will get AZ or LAC to trade. Then, the issue is whether the other team takes a very good deal from a team wanting the 4th QB. In any case, even if we get the 4th QB at 4 or 5, Penix will still be bid for starting at 6 or 7.
=================
WE GIVE UP ON THE TOP FOUR AND TRADE DOWN TO 11 AND GREATLY PREFER PENIX TO NIX
----------------------------------------------------------------
I think that we would try to move up to 7 or 8 to get Penix. At most, we could trade everything we got from MIN other than next year's first (or even give up the 1st for a 2nd back to us). So, we would get Penix and a 2025 1st (or at worst a 2nd) for our 3rd. Understand this is presuming that we don't want the two available at 3.

I do indeed think that there will be teams interested into trading up past 11 and 12 to get Penix (or Nix if that is their preference). But Penix isn't worth a trade up. OK. So? If DEN or LV were picking him at 12 or 13, I would think that they would consider trading up a couple of spots to get him. And, as media keeps saying, there is likely another team who might be able to move up with the right package.

So, the serious bidding starts after the #4 is picked, perhaps at 6 (with 4 QB's and 2 WR's taken in the first 6 picks). So, how much do the teams like Penix over Nix. There are four spots: 7, 8, 9 and 10. Maybe all four will have a player available that they consider better than any deal offered. I doubt it.

BOTTOM LINE
We are getting one or the top 6 QB's
A) a franchise QB at 3
B) the 4th QB at 4 or 5
C) Penix is we like him enough over Nix at 6, 7, 8, 9 or 10
D) Nix

ALL ARE WINNERS
We get what we think is a franchise QB or we get another QB plus at least a 2025 first

 

[mgteich]

Right. Essentially, you'd be trading 3 and 34 for 7 or 8 and 23. Even if you assume the Minnesota trade is 3 for 11, 23 and '25 R1, giving up 34 hurts. So then you'd be 7 or 8, 23 and then 68. Then you need to pray that the guy you passed on isn't a future ring bearing HoFer. I don't see a scenario where you trade out of 3 for 11 and 23 and then one of the QBs drop to 11. Might, but I don't see it right now.

Stay at 3, take your guy with confidence. Don't trade out of top 10.

So, you are saying if the two available are NOT our guy, we stay at 3 and pick a non-QB?

Or, are you saying that if Penix is our preference at QB over the 2 available, we should pick him at 3?

 

[KCSVEN]

There's a lot of buzz about the Patriots trading back and drafting Penix. I'm not debating the merits of Maye vs. Penix or another QB. I'm just curious about the draft strategy.

This is the first time I’ve heard this, where is this buzz?

 

[Love The Drake]

I’m calling my shot its McCarthy, he basically checks the boxes on everything the Patriots said they wanted in a QB.

I

 

[mike_usagisan]

This is the first time I’ve heard this, where is this buzz?

Twitter. So take it with a big grain of salt.

 

[mgteich]

I’m calling my shot its McCarthy, he basically checks the boxes on everything the Patriots said they wanted in a QB.

I

so? maybe McCarthy will be there, perhaps not.

 

[mgteich]

Two ways to approach it I think.

1. Completely punt on QB and take a Michael Pratt or Jordan Travis later in the draft (4, maybe 5.) It's a caretaker position, akin to what Houston did with Mills. Use the premium picks (rounds 1-3) to load up on positions of need. I wager the chances are zero or very close to it that NE would adopt this strategy.

or

2. Trade with the NYG but find out what it would take to move from 6 to 4 or 5 first. AZ and LAC don't want to lose out on blue chip players going to 11 (although AZ has the ammo to move back up to grab one of the top 3 receivers.) That's the only way they can guarantee getting whichever QB is left (JJ likely. As you already noted, it's a big gamble otherwise for a Tier 2 QB.)

AZ and LAC are going to charge a premium for MIN or whoever to move up. The question is, would those teams pay that price to move up for JJ? MIN can just take Penix at 11 without losing all that draft capital. (I think they only move up for Maye, but that's just a guess of course.)

what deal. We find out that we can tade back to 5 at a reasonable price. We trade with MIN who picks a QB and then a team gives a great deal to AZ for someone to pick the 4th QB at 4. AZ would then use some of the additional capital to trade back up for a WR.

So, there is ONE loser, the patriots who traded down to 6 to gain an "extra" pick. I guess the pick Penix at 6.

 

[Love The Drake]

so? maybe McCarthy will be there, perhaps not.

Washington is taking Daniels, they said the owner has said in private hr wanted a Lamar Jackson Clone.

Hearing the story about McCarthy telling his players if they were going to be partying and drinking all night he didn’t want them to show up. That all they cared about was winning football games that’s cementing it for me.

It’s shades of Brady

 

[Love The Drake]

what deal. We find out that we can tade back to 5 at a reasonable price. We trade with MIN who picks a QB and then a team gives a great deal to AZ for someone to pick the 4th QB at 4. AZ would then use some of the additional capital to trade back up for a WR.

So, there is ONE loser, the patriots who traded down to 6 to gain an "extra" pick. I guess the pick Penix at 6.

Lunacy we were talking about Penix in the middle second and of first and now he’s a top 10 pick no way.

 

[Ross12]

Washington is taking Daniels, they said the owner has said in private hr wanted a Lamar Jackson Clone.

Hearing the story about McCarthy telling his players if they were going to be partying and drinking all night he didn’t want them to show up. That all they cared about was winning football games that’s cementing it for me.

It’s shades of Brady

McCarthy talked up the Pats quite a bit on Schefter's podcast today.

 

[Love The Drake]

McCarthy talked up the Pats quite a bit on Schefter's podcast today.

Send it to me?

 

[Ross12]

Send it to me?

This article summarizes much of what he said, but not all - and there's a link to the podcast in the article.

NFL draft QB says it would be 'tremendous honor' to play for Patriots

Following in Tom Brady's footsteps would be quite the honor for one NFL draft prospect.

www.masslive.com

 

[Love The Drake]

This article summarizes much of what he said, but not all - and there's a link to the podcast in the article.

NFL draft QB says it would be 'tremendous honor' to play for Patriots

Following in Tom Brady's footsteps would be quite the honor for one NFL draft prospect.

www.masslive.com

Damn he sold that.
Now he’s my super binkie even more.
It’s gotta be JJ.
I’m going to be disappointed if we don’t draft him cause I think the kid will win at the NFL level.