Where does Penix go if Pats trade back?

[mike_usagisan]

There's a lot of buzz about the Patriots trading back and drafting Penix. I'm not debating the merits of Maye vs. Penix or another QB. I'm just curious about the draft strategy.

If the Pats do trade back, it's obvious that they probably want Penix and it signals to other teams that need a QB (Giants, Broncos, Raiders) that if they want Penix, they need to get in front of the Pats to get him.

I wonder if there's a scenario where Penix is gone by 11?

 

[Steve102]

There's a lot of buzz about the Patriots trading back and drafting Penix. I'm not debating the merits of Maye vs. Penix or another QB. I'm just curious about the draft strategy.

If the Pats do trade back, it's obvious that they probably want Penix and it signals to other teams that need a QB (Giants, Broncos, Raiders) that if they want Penix, they need to get in front of the Pats to get him.

I wonder if there's a scenario where Penix is gone by 11?

Giants are at 6. I think we can assume that Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy all are picked before Tennessee is on the clock at 7. That leaves the Vikings and Broncos at 11 and 12. Is it a reach to think that Nix and Penix go here? This of course assumes that there's no trades.

I think the Pats can't get to cute with the trading back, they could miss out on all 4 guys if they do. It appears they are out on Nix, so do you just trade back a little to the Giants at 6 and take who's left out of the 4? Do you go with @State's plan and take the trade with Minnesota, and then take Rattler at 34? You could get a top WR and OT at 11 and 23, and then take Rattler.

It's dizzying.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Giants are at 6. I think we can assume that Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy all are picked before Tennessee is on the clock at 7. That leaves the Vikings and Broncos at 11 and 12. Is it a reach to think that Nix and Penix go here? This of course assumes that there's no trades.

I think the Pats can't get to cute with the trading back, they could miss out on all 4 guys if they do. It appears they are out on Nix, so do you just trade back a little to the Giants at 6 and take who's left out of the 4? Do you go with @State's plan and take the trade with Minnesota, and then take Rattler at 34? You could get a top WR and OT at 11 and 23, and then take Rattler.

It's dizzying.

Yeah, I think there are 4-6 first round QBs and at least 7 teams looking for a QB. I don't think the Pats can get too cute if there's one they specifically want, but there seems a lot of buzz about trading to the Vikings and taking Penix later. But how much later than 11 could they wait in that scenario?

And which teams want which QBs?
Bears - Williams
Commanders - Daniels
Vikings - Maye?
Giants - McCarthy?
Pats - Penix?
Broncos - Nix?
Las Vegas - Rattler?

 

[Steve102]

Yeah, I think there are 4-6 first round QBs and at least 7 teams looking for a QB. I don't think the Pats can get too cute if there's one they specifically want, but there seems a lot of buzz about trading to the Vikings and taking Penix later. But how much later than 11 could they wait in that scenario?

And which teams want which QBs?
Bears - Williams
Commanders - Daniels
Vikings - Maye?
Giants - McCarthy?
Pats - Penix?
Broncos - Nix?
Las Vegas - Rattler?

I know there's draftnix out there that say "trust your draft board" and don't reach for guys if you have them ranked at a certain spot. For instance, Rattler is ranked #112 by NFL Draft Buzz. According to talking heads like Kiper, you have to leave him there until your in that range and then take him around #112. That's fine in a vacuum, but when there's a run on QBs, suddenly the overall ranking doesn't matter. If you get to #34 and you need a QB, and Rattler is the top QB left, do you stretch and take him? Someone else is going to, yes?

I guess I look at it as if you have a guy you want, get him. I they want Penix, and he's ranked player #9, trade with the Giants and take him at 6. Don't wait for the Vikes at 11. If they want whoever is left of Daniels or Maye, then take him at 3. If it's Rattler, don't wait until R4, get him earlier and take the bag from Minnesota.

I think there's gonna be a run on QBs this year, and that means someone else in another position group is going to fall to you at 34 and then again at 68. That's where they can make their bones in this draft.

 

[patman52]

Why would you want Penix? My thought he would go to the raiders. Penix to me is a pick that would get the team better next year, but where is the upside in him. He has played 6 years and had a premium set of receivers in college. Maye and McCarthry offer upside, and Maye has the upside of a top 10 qb. People ragging on Maye is something I cant understand. His Oline sucks, His WR sucks, especially when Walker was out 4 games. when a team needs a qb and one with potential is there you take him.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Why would you want Penix? My thought he would go to the raiders. Penix to me is a pick that would get the team better next year, but where is the upside in him. He has played 6 years and had a premium set of receivers in college. Maye and McCarthry offer upside, and Maye has the upside of a top 10 qb. People ragging on Maye is something I cant understand. His Oline sucks, His WR sucks, especially when Walker was out 4 games. when a team needs a qb and one with potential is there you take him.

No idea. But I know I am no judge of QBs. I'm just playing out the scenario based on some of the buzz out there.

 

[mike_usagisan]

I know there's draftnix out there that say "trust your draft board" and don't reach for guys if you have them ranked at a certain spot. For instance, Rattler is ranked #112 by NFL Draft Buzz. According to talking heads like Kiper, you have to leave him there until your in that range and then take him around #112. That's fine in a vacuum, but when there's a run on QBs, suddenly the overall ranking doesn't matter. If you get to #34 and you need a QB, and Rattler is the top QB left, do you stretch and take him? Someone else is going to, yes?

I guess I look at it as if you have a guy you want, get him. I they want Penix, and he's ranked player #9, trade with the Giants and take him at 6. Don't wait for the Vikes at 11. If they want whoever is left of Daniels or Maye, then take him at 3. If it's Rattler, don't wait until R4, get him earlier and take the bag from Minnesota.

I think there's gonna be a run on QBs this year, and that means someone else in another position group is going to fall to you at 34 and then again at 68. That's where they can make their bones in this draft.

I agree about picking your guy when you can. But I think it also has to do with looking around at the other teams nearby and if they're in the market for a QB. There seem to be a lot of them in the top 12 or 13 picks, so I don't think teams can wait too long to grab their QB if they want to get a specific one.

 

[holyredeemer]

This entire scenario would make me sick. We would have to draft him high to avoid losing out on him. I don’t think he even makes it to 11 unless teams demand so much in trades it blocks others from jumping up. I don’t want anything to do with Penix. Guy played behind a stout OL and had great receivers. Yes he had to do the work and deliver, but his body has already proven it cant hold up to a beating. You just dont draft a guy with that injury history in the top half of the first rd. You just dont!

 

[mike_usagisan]

This entire scenario would make me sick. We would have to draft him high to avoid losing out on him. I don’t think he even makes it to 11 unless teams demand so much in trades it blocks others from jumping up. I don’t want anything to do with Penix. Guy played behind a stout OL and had great receivers. Yes he had to do the work and deliver, but his body has already proven it cant hold up to a beating. You just dont draft a guy with that injury history in the top half of the first rd. You just dont!

Right. But let's pretend it isn't Penix. They might like Nix or McCarthy. I expect Arizona and the Chargers are open for business to trade down if a QB-hungry team decides they need to move up before all the QBs are gone.

 

[yukon cornelius]

I know there's draftnix out there that say "trust your draft board" and don't reach for guys if you have them ranked at a certain spot. For instance, Rattler is ranked #112 by NFL Draft Buzz. According to talking heads like Kiper, you have to leave him there until your in that range and then take him around #112. That's fine in a vacuum, but when there's a run on QBs, suddenly the overall ranking doesn't matter. If you get to #34 and you need a QB, and Rattler is the top QB left, do you stretch and take him? Someone else is going to, yes?

I guess I look at it as if you have a guy you want, get him. I they want Penix, and he's ranked player #9, trade with the Giants and take him at 6. Don't wait for the Vikes at 11. If they want whoever is left of Daniels or Maye, then take him at 3. If it's Rattler, don't wait until R4, get him earlier and take the bag from Minnesota.

I think there's gonna be a run on QBs this year, and that means someone else in another position group is going to fall to you at 34 and then again at 68. That's where they can make their bones in this draft.

that's the problem......6 or 7 QBs will go in round 1......but how many of them are actually RD 1 talent, or worthy of the draft slot they are going to go at

that's the issue with drafting QBs.....they all go higher than they should, all are over valued

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I saw the scenario where the Bears trade up from 9 to 3 to draft MHJ. They then have the best QB and the best WR in the draft. Pretty exciting for their fan base. The Bears still have Carolina's 2nd round pick next year, so they can offer a 1st and 2nd in 2024 and a 1st and 2nd in 2025. That is 7 picks in the top of the first 2 rounds this year and next for the Pats. And 9 possibly still gets one of the top 4 QBs although some team would probably jump ahead of us, like the Vikings. But we could give a 2nd to jump back up to 7. Lots of possibilities

 

[jmt57]

The upside of trading down is of course the extra draft picks, which also gives you ammunition to trade back up.

The downside is spelled out above. A player that in theory should be available at (fill in the blank, let's say 34) now is suddenly long gone, didn't even make it to to 20.

Once that happens, what's the Plan B? You may have to reach much further than you would have for the next tier guy - and at the same time end up with less quality and less value. There's a genuine potential for a nightmare scenario draft, where you lose out on all the top three positions/prospects you were targeting.


I do love the concept of trading down and accumulating those extra picks if the team is not absolutely in love with whomever is still available at #3. But doing so can be risky and is far from a sure thing.

 

[mike_usagisan]

The upside of trading down is of course the extra draft picks, which also gives you ammunition to trade back up.

The downside is spelled out above. A player that in theory should be available at (fill in the blank, let's say 34) now is suddenly long gone, didn't even make it to to 20.

Once that happens, what's the Plan B? You may have to reach much further than you would have for the next tier guy - and at the same time end up with less quality and less value. There's a genuine potential for a nightmare scenario draft, where you lose out on all the top three positions/prospects you were targeting.


I do love the concept of trading down and accumulating those extra picks if the team is not absolutely in love with whomever is still available at #3. But doing so can be risky and is far from a sure thing.

Agreed. I think if they're thinking of trading back, they're not trading back far.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

if we trade down to 11, I think Denver at 12 will not trade up after the Zack Wilson acquisition and with Stidham also on the roster. The Raiders at 13 are a threat to jump above 11 though. So if you assume worst case is that Chicago, Washington, Minnesota, and the Giants all take QB's at 1, 2, 3, and 6, then Williamms-Daniels-Maye-McCarthy are gone. So if we love Penix, it would take brass balls to sit and hope that LV doesn't make a move. We'd have to move up to 7 or 8 to make sure we get Penix, which would cost at least a 2nd rounder.

 

[mike_usagisan]

if we trade down to 11, I think Denver at 12 will not trade up after the Zack Wilson acquisition and with Stidham also on the roster. The Raiders at 13 are a threat to jump above 11 though. So if you assume worst case is that Chicago, Washington, Minnesota, and the Giants all take QB's at 1, 2, 3, and 6, then Williamms-Daniels-Maye-McCarthy are gone. So if we love Penix, it would take brass balls to sit and hope that LV doesn't make a move. We'd have to move up to 7 or 8 to make sure we get Penix, which would cost at least a 2nd rounder.

That's my thinking as well. After the Giants pick, it seems like anything could happen.

 

[Real fan 02]

There's a lot of buzz about the Patriots trading back and drafting Penix. I'm not debating the merits of Maye vs. Penix or another QB. I'm just curious about the draft strategy.

If the Pats do trade back, it's obvious that they probably want Penix and it signals to other teams that need a QB (Giants, Broncos, Raiders) that if they want Penix, they need to get in front of the Pats to get him.

I wonder if there's a scenario where Penix is gone by 11?

Thanks for this! I've been waiting for someone to speak on penix Jr. Seeing as how the Vikings and Broncos are at #11 &12. I'd really be focusing in on those 2 teams.. there is something to the recent talk from O'Connell and Sean Payton comments about what they're willing to do to get to #3. I believe penix will end up coming to us if we do business with those teams wanting to move up..

How do we turn down a Jefferson offer?
Imagine penix, Jefferson and the left tackle all being attainable on draft day. Wow!

 

[Love The Drake]

Super risky, if you see a franchise QB grab him.
If you don’t think he’s a franchise QB trade down it’s that simple.

 

[Steve102]

if we trade down to 11, I think Denver at 12 will not trade up after the Zack Wilson acquisition and with Stidham also on the roster. The Raiders at 13 are a threat to jump above 11 though. So if you assume worst case is that Chicago, Washington, Minnesota, and the Giants all take QB's at 1, 2, 3, and 6, then Williamms-Daniels-Maye-McCarthy are gone. So if we love Penix, it would take brass balls to sit and hope that LV doesn't make a move. We'd have to move up to 7 or 8 to make sure we get Penix, which would cost at least a 2nd rounder.

Right. Essentially, you'd be trading 3 and 34 for 7 or 8 and 23. Even if you assume the Minnesota trade is 3 for 11, 23 and '25 R1, giving up 34 hurts. So then you'd be 7 or 8, 23 and then 68. Then you need to pray that the guy you passed on isn't a future ring bearing HoFer. I don't see a scenario where you trade out of 3 for 11 and 23 and then one of the QBs drop to 11. Might, but I don't see it right now.

Stay at 3, take your guy with confidence. Don't trade out of top 10.

 

[Triumph]

Interest has been flaccid.

 

[Steve102]

Interest has been flaccid.

Anytime someone says that word, this is in my head.