Welcome to PatsFans.com

What I don't get about the Wheatley pick

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by Patsman, Apr 27, 2008.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Patsman

    Patsman Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 22, 2007
    Messages:
    98
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Is why there? - did the Pats think someone else really like the guy in the next 6 picks, even next full round? Are there other teams out there that were ready to hop on him if the Pats let him slide? Could we have not waited and picked up someone that might have been a little higher on the value charts. My thoughts are that their next three might be a tad unusual as well because when I look at Wheatleys value pre-draft, I'm seeing most evaluators tab him as a 4th rounder at best, nevermind a second rounder. I just don't understand that pick at all.
  2. Pedrorocks458

    Pedrorocks458 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    First of all, there is already a thread about him.

    Second of all, there's no way you know that he wouldn't have gone. I love this weekend but this is my pet peeve. Usually it comes out that he was being targeted. Worry about the player not the pick they used.
  3. CopenhagenPatsfan

    CopenhagenPatsfan Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    89
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I am sure if you take the time to read the other 10 threads on the subject you will find your answer:D
  4. JoePats

    JoePats Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2006
    Messages:
    2,145
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I'd say clearly the answer to your question is yes. And I'd also say they were awfully confident he would not be there just 6 picks later. It's not like they were going to have to sweat it out over the course of a whole round, which is kind of like roulette. They easily could have waited 6 picks but they thought he would be gone.
  5. PATRIOT64

    PATRIOT64 Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2006
    Messages:
    3,775
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I still question the pick of Ben Watson who at the time may have been the biggest head scratcher in BB's era here,Watson more assuredly would have been around the next time NE came up to bat.

    Watson is now a borderline above average TE but better than I thought anyways
  6. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    11,111
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +32 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Are you basing your "he'd be there later" convictions on draft site rankings? Try this: go back and rank the CBs in order of measurables, skills and production and you'll find that Wheatley suddenly looks like a stud at 62. Seriously, he is much, much better athlete than most of the players ranked above him and has terrific football character and intelligence. If other teams were comfortable with his wrist, he could easily have gone soon.
  7. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2004
    Messages:
    3,150
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The why there question can't be answered by us. We don't have the info teams have. Maybe they think he was going to go before it got back to them. Maybe they just thought a corner run was coming and he was their top guy and wanted to get him.

    I really thought the whole "he'd have definitely been there later" thing was put to rest with the Mankins pick. There was a whole lot of that being thrown around and then the 49ers GM comes out and says they were going to take Mankins with their pick - 1 pick after the pats.
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2008
  8. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    19,975
    Likes Received:
    24
    Ratings:
    +28 / 1 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The patriots did not want to risk the Giants taking him at the very next pick.

  9. bradmahn

    bradmahn Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2006
    Messages:
    2,008
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The corner run was absolutely what happened, so excellent observation.

    Is it not widely regarded that it is folly to attempt to judge a draft after one year? Don't we say it's ridiculous to try to judge a draft before rookies have even had an opportunity to report to their teams? Why, then, would you try to make any sort of judgments about where a player "would have been" before the next ten picks have even been selected? This is especially true when a player is "borderline."

    ******* Relax! Goddamnit!
  10. jeffbiologist

    jeffbiologist Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Messages:
    1,429
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Yes there was a corner run.....but with 4 picks so close(62-94)they likely didnt like ANY of the next 3-4 CBs. Further, NOW(end of the 3rd rd)it also looks like they dont like ANY of our guys....trading away for a SD 2nd?? 69 in a good draft vs say 58 a year later in a so-so draft?? Ya, we get a 5th, but again not good value I dont think....
  11. Pedrorocks458

    Pedrorocks458 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Next year is a so-so draft late in the 2nd round? Seems like a premature analysis.
  12. bradmahn

    bradmahn Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2006
    Messages:
    2,008
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The selection of Wheatley could mean a couple things, including the possibility that they didn't like any of the next 3-4 CBs, but it's impossible to tell given our knowledge. Maybe they really, really like Wheatley. Maybe they expected the run on CBs and didn't think any of their guys would be available at the top of the third. Maybe they had Wheatley graded higher than any and all of the other CBs in round two and three (given how fast they got their selection in, this, to me, is probably the most likely). We don't know what their thinking is or was so it's faulty to proclaim that it was a reach or not worth the pick.

    I think you're up in arms because they don't look to like any of your guys, not that they don't like any of their guys.
  13. RayClay

    RayClay Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2005
    Messages:
    17,518
    Likes Received:
    40
    Ratings:
    +50 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    #75 Jersey
    Why would they risk losing the player they wanted so they could select someone they didn't want because a guy on ESPN with a hair hat who never played even high school football said they should?

    It's really backwards when you think about it.

    It's like asking why someone in Florida would buy a bathing suit at full price when ski parkas were on sale.:D
  14. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 11, 2006
    Messages:
    17,226
    Likes Received:
    11
    Ratings:
    +12 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I wondered why they took Wheatly also. So I did some reading up on the other prospects that went just before,and that were still on the board. Some had more height, some had more bulk, some had more experiance etc. But none had Wheatleys overall athletic ability. I watched a combine workout tape of him,and he is incredible as far as speed, quickness, agility, and he is not afraid to through his body around.And he supposidly can add 10-12 lbs of bulk and still maintain his speed. So I'm satisfied with him.
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2008
  15. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    23,732
    Likes Received:
    45
    Ratings:
    +49 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    #50 Jersey
    Adam Schefter, through Mike Mayock, broke that if the Pats hadn't taken Wheatley where they did, he was going to be the pick of the Giants.

    As for the evaluators, you have to ignore them when it comes to how the Patriots scouting department rates the players. The Patriots do NOT use the 2 scouting agencies that provide information on players to the teams in the league. The Pats have their own staff that do the evaluations.
  16. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    23,732
    Likes Received:
    45
    Ratings:
    +49 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    #50 Jersey
    So, now you can see the future and you know that next year is going to be a "so-so" draft? Not only can you tell that it will be a so-so draft, but that the pick will be at 58 (which would mean that SD makes it to the 2nd round of the play-offs or the AFCCG).

    Are you sure you're not Ms. Cleo Redux?
  17. DocE

    DocE Rookie

    Joined:
    Feb 5, 2008
    Messages:
    513
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I would assume the Patriots simply wanted Wheatley and didn't want to risk moving down and missing out on him. There was a great thread this year on Patriots visits and workouts, and the Patriots showed a lot of interest in the CB class. I think the Patriots considered a CB a priority and wanted to make sure they got one in this draft. After all their evaluations, why would they risk getting a cb they like less (possibly much less) for the purposes of simply adding an additional 4th or 5th rounder in a trade down? It's entirely possible that Wheatley was graded as a first round pick on their draft board and that the next available cb on their board was graded as a 3rd rounder. In that type of hypothetical scenario, it would make absolutely no sense to risk missing out on him.
  18. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    1. Wheatley has production, measurables, brains, and apparent character. What's not to like?

    2. For the next pick, the Pats DID risk still getting their guy -- they called Crable, said they expected to take him, and then left him on the board until their next third-rounder when they made the SD trade.
  19. JoeShmoe

    JoeShmoe Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2008
    Messages:
    1,623
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Am I right in thinking Wheatley is around the same size as Champ Bailey and Asante?

    I think he has the pontential to be a much better version of Hobbs
  20. alvinnf

    alvinnf Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2008
    Messages:
    3,296
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Well they probably wanted Lee from Auburn so once he was off the board with GB, why would you wait?
    Your trying to get the best guys you can at the time on your football team not get them where everyone else thinks they should be go.
  21. RussFrancis

    RussFrancis Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 10, 2007
    Messages:
    929
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    The arm chair draft generals are funny. Getting so caught up in "value". Its understandable that some would be perplexed with the Wheatley pick or the Slater and O'Connell picks because you were likely, like myself and many others, unfamiliar with these kids and just how good they are. And of course there are far more factors that go into talent evaluation than any of us consider. But you look at the GMs that supposedly get the most "value" out of the draft. Polian, AJ Smith, Jerry Jones. All worked the board. All stole "value" away from other teams. They do it every year. AJ Smith robbed us our '08 3rd for his '09 2nd? Really? We'll need to remind people of that next year, when theyve once again lost a big playoff game to our team, and at next year's draft, we're sitting on their 2nd round pick and grabbing a future TE or offensive lineman "too early" once again. And what is Jerry Jones' drafting for value doing for that team? Its certainly not resulting in playoff wins. They havent tasted a post season win in 12 years. And Polian has been putting together championship teams for years and years. But in all his years, theyve only won a single title.

    Maximizing value is certainly a good way to assemble a quality team. But you win championships with specific players that embody exactly what it takes to win big football games. Who really cares if you take him in the 2nd vs. the 3rd round? or the 5th vs. the 7th? VALUE does not win titles. Players do.
  22. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    8,329
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +17 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    This is a dumb question if you think about it.

    The only possible answer is that the Pats thought he would NOT be around.

    Otherwise you are suggesting that BB turns to SP and says, "Hey I don't think that anyone else wants this guy. We could easily get him with our next pick, but let's draft him anyway and lose whatever guy we have rated higher."

    Think, man, think.

    Can you say to yourself, "BB and SP saw something in this guy, perhaps something they saw in the many man-days of research they put into analyzing this kid, that I did not see in the ESPN Draft Guide."

    If not, you will be forever puzzled by this choice.
  23. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    8,329
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +17 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    They also risked losing Crable by taking Mayo and leaving Crable on the board. And they risked losing Crable by taking Wheatley and leaving Crable on the board.

    They risked losing him every pick they did not trade up to get him.

    They risked Mayo by trading down to ten. They risked Mayo by not trading up to get him.

    They were calculated risks designed to maximize value, getting the best players they can while spending as little as possible for them so they can sign FAs with the money saved, and/or drafting additional players.

    Half the people on this board are complaining that the Pats reach for players and the other half say the Pats must not have liked that player because they waited to draft him.

    Teams that work the draft board are trying to maximize value. The Pats and Ravens and others do better IMO that those who sit and wait and just take was is available when it is their turn to pick.
  24. DW Toys

    DW Toys Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2007
    Messages:
    2,822
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Cousins,
    I see it this way. BB and Pioli do not scout these players, the paid scouts do. They recommend certain players and put the values on them. Yes BB and Pioli have the final say BUT.....a bad scout can make a bad choice and make the F.O. look tainted.

    It's like these "Presidential" candidates that say they can do this or that. We all know they can do crap. It's Congress and the Senate that actually do these things. We don't believe the "new jobs" or "change" (change could be going to meet major world dignitaries in your Jockey shorts) etc. promises garbage. Well the F.O. here is the "President" and it's the array of scouts that are the Congress and actually push for their own agenda that will get approved if they can b.s. to get their own way. The scouts and congress all influence the decision in both cases.

    BB doesn't have but a few occasions before a draft like visits etc, where he will work out or chat with a kid. We also know the teams also do that for smoke screens too. So BB relies on scouts. Last year in 07 the scouts did a terrible job. We'll see about this year.

    It also has to do with marketing. BB or Pioli must market the picks or pick when they move up or down the draft to get a "buyer". They buy and sell. If a scout says that Matt Slater is a "By-God" fifth round draft choice, then the F.O. drafts that way, BUT....if they get duped into thinking "so in so" is a true fifth rounder because "X" team is "hot" on him if you don't take him, and then chuckle as the Pats draft that kid. The other team wins by default because they suckered us into drafting him. It's poker.

    There is enough information out there today for the fans to get a reasonable temperature on a player. We do not have the whole story though, it's true. But some of the moves are still puzzling. Look at the success rate in the NFL for draft choices. What are they, less than 20% per year, per draft class? It's all scouts. Someone told BB that Slater is worth a trade-up to a higher fifth round position. BB approved the move because he trusts (and pays) that scout who put Slater on the draft board to begin with.

    What I am saying is that the fans (or talking heads) could generate probably within a few percentage points, within the success rate of the majority on the NFL teams. I really believe that. There are other factors such as CAP and present roster status and quality that are caveats to my theory.

    So by saying a fan is out of touch today or does not really know what a team should do or what the value of a player is, may not be a fair statement.
    DW Toys
    Last edited: May 6, 2008
  25. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    8,329
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +17 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Yeah, I read that BB spends his entire off-season surfing the web and doesm't look at any film of any player or talk to anyone or work anyone out.

    He just asks the scouts to put the draft choices in numerical order and just picks off the top player off the list.

    Get real.

    We all have our favorites based on the SI draft magazine and watching ESPN and NFLN. To say that this provides one millionth of the knowledge that the Pats FO has is ludicrous. Not to mention that we don't know what the plan is. Fans say, "We have to replace so-and-so who left." Teams don't do that. They draft players to fit a plan/scheme they have for the future.

    It is like when we get upset because a "player was out of position." Like we know where he is supposed to be. Remember when the entire board went ape**** because Randall Gay got beat by Plaxico. Had a feeding frenzy of *****ing for four days, and then in an interview Rodney says he was out of position on that play and the TD was his fault.
  26. Pedrorocks458

    Pedrorocks458 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    218
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    I would be extremely surprised if Lee was even on their draft board.
  27. Metaphors

    Metaphors Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2005
    Messages:
    3,670
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Agreed. I had Lee as a Pats target for the draft contest but soon after started second-guessing myself. Lee is talented and was productive at Auburn, but he really is better suited for a zone/cover 2 scheme. I think that the Pats were looking for a different type of CB and hopefully they hit gold with Wheatley and Wilhite.
  28. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2005
    Messages:
    20,236
    Likes Received:
    32
    Ratings:
    +33 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Actually, I would suggest a slightly different but more encompassing answer: they didn't want to risk that he might not be there. Given that three of the six intervening picks were CBs, they might well have been correct.
  29. Patslifer

    Patslifer Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2008
    Messages:
    758
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:


    Total insanity....:bricks:
  30. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2004
    Messages:
    8,341
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +5 / 0 / -0

    My Jersey:

    Maybe...maybe not. Brock Williams, Kenyatta Jones, Jabari Holloway, Bethel Johnson, Dan Klecko, Marquise Hill (RIP), Guss Scott, Dexter Reid, Cedric Cobbs, PK Sam, Ryan Claridge, Garrett Mills, Kareem Brown and Clint Oldenburg, plus all the 6th and 7th-round duds, are living testimony that this FO is not infallible.

    If anyone before the draft suggested that NE select a QB at #94, Jonathan Wilhite with its 4th-rounder, trade its 7th-rounder to move UP to take Matt Slater in the 5th round, and Bo Ruud with its 6th-rounder, would have been laughed off the thread, and justifiably so. So why should the ridicule be any less severe, when the FO does what no sane poster would have suggested?

    We have not won the last 3 SBs partly because of poor decisions on draft weekend. The idea of giving this FO, or any FO, or any organization in a decision-making position, a free pass without accountability, because of past - but not most recent - success is naive at best, suicidal at worst.

    As for lil' Terry Wheatley, I would have taken Oklahoma's Reggie Smith at #62. Of all the available CBs remaining, Smith is the best combination of size, durability, fluid hips and production.

    At #78, I would have chosen Cliff Avril over Shawn Crable.

    At #94, I would have chosen Tyvon Branch, or Mike McGlynn.

    There are other rounds, and players not named Wilhite, Slater and Ruud to select. But it's late, and I'm tired. Good night now.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page