One of the memes going around is that Tom Brady doesn't have two bad games in a row. Is that really true? Let's make this scale (this isn't a "Tom Brady" scale, which is higher than most QBs...it's an "objective" scale that applies to all QBs): QB Rating - Category 115+ - excellent 100-114.9 - very good 85-99.9 - good 75-84.9 - average 65-74.9 - poor <65 - terrible Tom Brady, in his entire career, has played in 181 games (regular season + post season). Here's the number of games he's played in each of those categories: excellent: 41 (22.7%) very good: 41 (22.7%) good: 26 (14.4%) average: 29 (16.0%) poor: 19 (10.5%) terrible: 25 (13.8%) Now, let's focus on just the terrible games, since what we're looking for is how Brady does when he comes off a terrible game. Last week's AFCCG qualifies, by QB rating, as a "terrible" game (57.5). So let's zero in on those 25 terrible games. How has Brady done in the games following those 25 terrible games? Well, in 3 of them, he didn't have a "next" game (obviously he hasn't had a "next" game yet after this most recent one, once came in the 2009 wild card game against Baltimore so that ended the season, and the other was his short appearance in his 2000 debut). So there were really 22 terrible games where he then played a next game. Of those 22, here's where his next games ended up on this scale: excellent: 4 (18.2%) very good: 3 (13.6%) good: 4 (18.2%) average: 7 (31.8%) poor: 2 (9.1%) terrible: 2 (9.1%) Here were the actual QB ratings in his games following a terrible performance: 149.0 124.4 116.4 115.2 108.8 105.8 101.5 93.4 93.4 91.6 87.1 84.6 84.2 82.6 79.7 79.6 79.5 75.4 70.4 68.5 63.6 57.6 11 of them were over an 85 rating, and 11 of them were under. The average QB rating for Brady following a terrible game is 91.5. On 3 of these 22 occasions Brady's terrible performance was followed up by a playoff game. Here was Brady's QB rating in the playoffs following a terrible performance (either in a previous playoff game or in a week 16 game): 116.4 (2005 - WC win over Jax, 28-3) 79.5 (2006 - AFCCG loss to Ind, 38-34) 70.4 (2001 - Divisional win over Oak, 16-13) So here's the history: Brady is a great quarterback. He normally plays very well. His career playoff QB rating is significantly lower than his career regular season QB rating (87.6 vs. 96.4). And he really has been about 50/50 in terms of following up a terrible performance over the course of his career. If you expand this study to look at how he does following up a game where he is anything less than "good" (i.e., he has an "average", "poor", or "terrible" game), the numbers are more encouraging. Following up any of these three levels, he has done this in his next game (65 occasions): excellent: 14 (21.5%) very good: 15 (23.1%) good: 9 (13.8%) average: 14 (21.5%) poor: 6 (9.2%) terrible: 7 (10.8%) So he follows up a less than good game with a good, very good, or excellent game 58.5% of the time. So he's a better than average bet to play pretty well. But it isn't nearly the slam-dunk that most Pats fans think, unfortunately.