The possibilities of trading either up or down

[JoeSixPat]

Back in reality, I do think that the idea of at least partially trading into 09's first round is probably the fall-back if we can't find a suitable trading partner for 08.

Recognizing this IS Oakland we're talking about - but at a certain point, what's the sense of trading away #7 this year for a TBD 1st round pick next year?

That's a heckuva risk to take that you'll have a lower pick next year. Now trading #28 for next year's pick is a no-brainer. The chances that didn't work out to our advantage were pretty low.

But you'd really have to pile on the extra draft picks to make having the Patriots trade out of the top 7 in 2008 for the top 32 in 2009 worth the risk.

If we trade down I think the bulk of the value is going to have to be in THIS draft - not the nebulous prospect of a pick anywhere in the first round next year.

 

[Jimke]

Recognizing this IS Oakland we're talking about - but at a certain point, what's the sense of trading away #7 this year for a TBD 1st round pick next year?

That's a heckuva risk to take that you'll have a lower pick next year. Now trading #28 for next year's pick is a no-brainer. The chances that didn't work out to our advantage.

But you'd really have to pile on the extra draft picks to make having the Patriots trade out of the top 7 in 2008 for the top 32 in 2009 worth the risk.

If we trade down I think the bulk of the value is going to have to be in THIS draft - not the nebulous prospect of a pick anywhere in the first round next year.

It's time to acknowlege that the 2008 team has some holes to fill at

cornerback, linebacker, and tight end before talking about adding picks

for 2009. The Pats are assured of having some compensatory picks

in 2009.

 

[BradyManny]

If we trade down I think the bulk of the value is going to have to be in THIS draft - not the nebulous prospect of a pick anywhere in the first round next year.

I agree that's best case scenario. But if it comes down between overpaying for somebody at #7 that they don't like or trading into 09, I'd choose the later. It'd have to be more than just an 09 first and an 08 2nd, obviously, even from the worst teams in the league.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I agree that's best case scenario. But if it comes down between overpaying for somebody at #7 that they don't like or trading into 09, I'd choose the later. It'd have to be more than just an 09 first and an 08 2nd, obviously, even from the worst teams in the league.

Right - I think we're all agreed that we have needs THIS year and that its unlikely we'd turn #7 into a higher pick next year.

But anything is possible if there aren't guys that BB is high on at #7. Trading back to the teens and picking up some draft pick this year or next - even 1st rounders next year - can't be ruled out.

The bottom line for me in this discussion is that many of these players do need time to develop (less so in the Top Ten though) - and that having a player a year sooner gives him that much more time to develop in our system.

We've been lucky that we haven't had too many areas of IMMEDIATE need. And even as pressing as our needs feel at CB and LB, I'm confident we can make it through this year with just a few more free agents, trades or picking up some cut players - but again, let's get some young players in here so they can develop for when we REALLY need them 2 years from now.

 

[Metaphors]

Assuming the Pats don't trade out of the 1st round completely, it looks to me like there are 11 potential trade partners (in order of selection):

#9 Cincinnati
Target: Ellis
Assuming Dorsey is gone by #7, they would be going after Ellis. Considering the Pats don't need Ellis and the Ravens have bigger fish to fry, why trade up 2 spots. Well because...

#10 New Orleans
Target: Ellis
The Saints could try to jump over the Bengals for Ellis, though it would likely cost them their #3 pick (78). There is a significant dropoff at DT after Ellis which could be used to engage CIN and NO at the last minute if other tradedown attempts don't work out.

#12 Denver
Target: Ellis or Clady
While Denver needs line help, I can see them waiting here and getting an OT that drops to them. They also don't have their #3 which would be a key piece in getting to #7. I think they would have to fall completely in love with Ellis or Clady and overpay to move up.

#13 Carolina
Target: Clady or Ryan
Can probably still wait on an OT, but if Ryan is sitting there at #7 (realizing he won't make it past the Ravens) I can see Carolina going after him. Delhomme can give him a year to sit and learn. They don't have an ideal pick to trade (#43 is too much and #67 is too little) but could likely get a deal done.

#14 Chicago
Target: Ryan or Clady
Same situation as with Carolina...which is nice to set up a bidding war especially if Ryan is still on the board at 7.

#15 Detroit
Target: McFadden or Clady
Now waiting for a top OT to drop gets a little riskier. Don't want to be at the end of a run and get left out. If McFadden is sitting on the board, the Lions would be tempted but he likely won't make it to #7.

#17 Minnesota
Target: Clady
Same comments as above. Carolina, Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota all have an extra pick in the 3rd round which could make trading easier.

#18 Houston
Target: Clady
The Texans could really use a tackle and would have to hope they don't get stuck at the end of a run. They don't have much to trade (no #2 pick) and have enough other needs that they likely won't be moving up.

#19 Philadelphia
Target: Clady
Would likely have to part with their 2nd and 3rd picks and that just isn't their style.

#20 Tampa Bay
Target: Ellis
The Bucs are interesting since they really need some DT help and won't find much this low. I don't think they would pay the price to get to #7 (2nd and 3rd). Plus they need CB help and #20 is a prime spot for good CB value in this draft.

#22 Dallas
Target: McFadden
As much as Leather-face protests, I can't see him resisting the urge to part with #28 to get McFadden. Not holding my breath that DMc makes it to #7.

So I don't see the Pats trade down possibilities as being optimal unless Ryan or McFadden drop to #7. I have Ryan going to Atlanta at #3 and McFadden going to Oakland (or other) at #4. Ryan gets Carolina and Chicago on the phone and McFadden gets Detroit and Dallas involved.

I think the Pats will try to get Detroit to part with #45 to trade up for Clady. Since Detroit's pick at #15 is a sweet spot for the Pats (can get a good corner and sign for 6 years), I can see the Pats cutting a deal for less. My darkhouse trading partner is Tampa Bay. The Bucs would have to REALLY fall in love with Ellis but anything is possible.

I think the most likely scenario is trading out to #10 (NO gets Ellis) and taking a CB. While they could trade down again, the Pats would just be accumulating mid-round picks. I don't think there are that many open roster spots to fill so they would have to hope those picks could be packaged in a later trade up scenario.

 

[Jimke]

Right - I think we're all agreed that we have needs THIS year and that its unlikely we'd turn #7 into a higher pick next year.

But anything is possible if there aren't guys that BB is high on at #7. Trading back to the teens and picking up some draft pick this year or next - even 1st rounders next year - can't be ruled out.

The bottom line for me in this discussion is that many of these players do need time to develop (less so in the Top Ten though) - and that having a player a year sooner gives him that much more time to develop in our system.

We've been lucky that we haven't had too many areas of IMMEDIATE need. And even as pressing as our needs feel at CB and LB, I'm confident we can make it through this year with just a few more free agents, trades or picking up some cut players - but again, let's get some young players in here so they can develop for when we REALLY need them 2 years from now.

After the 2009 season, the Patriots may lose as many as 10 starters.

The Pats have only a couple of years to draft and develop some

replacements. If we have a couple more years where only two or three

draft picks make the team, the task may near impossible.

 

[primetime]

If the Patriots could trade back and get the Cowboys' two picks, I'd be elated. The two guys I really want out of this draft are Antoine Cason and Beau Bell, but neither provide good value at #7. However, they would be perfect for the high pick and I think would fit perfectly into the Patriots' defense as well.

 

[Metaphors]

If the Patriots could trade back and get the Cowboys' two picks, I'd be elated. The two guys I really want out of this draft are Antoine Cason and Beau Bell, but neither provide good value at #7. However, they would be perfect for the high pick and I think would fit perfectly into the Patriots' defense as well.

Cason is fine but Bell didn't exactly pass the eye test at the combine. I know that isn't everything, but if his 245 pounds is due to pizza and fried twinkies, I not sure he would "fit perfectly" into anything.

 

[bakes781]

The only player I can see the Pats trading UP for is Chris Long & that's only if he slips past #3. Otherwise it makes no sense IMO. Gholston's stock along with all LBs is primarily boosted because of a weak class at that position. So it would make more sense to trade down &/or into next year's draft.

 

[BradyManny]

I think the most likely scenario is trading out to #10 (NO gets Ellis) and taking a CB. While they could trade down again, the Pats would just be accumulating mid-round picks. I don't think there are that many open roster spots to fill so they would have to hope those picks could be packaged in a later trade up scenario.

Good post.

 

[My2Cents]

:bricks:I should have seen this coming sooner. It's all so clear now. The Patriots will trade up to #1 to draft Darren McFadden. Here is why?

1. BB believes the game has shifted to Offense, not Defense.
2. The Tuna is just begging to give the top overall pick away.
3. The Patriots see an opportunity and they pounce on it.
4. McFadden is unquestionably the biggest impact player.
5. The quickest way to take pressure of Brady is to run well.
6. Even when he had Dillon, BB wanted to pair him up at RB.
7. Packaging picks to Miami could also land them Jason Taylor.
8. If Brady were to go down, McFadden could help carry them.
9. Brady wants to be surrounded by playmakers who can score.
10. The League loses power to bully Pats if they trade picks.

 

[DW Toys]

I agree that's best case scenario. But if it comes down between overpaying for somebody at #7 that they don't like or trading into 09, I'd choose the later. It'd have to be more than just an 09 first and an 08 2nd, obviously, even from the worst teams in the league.

I am in favor of trading out too. I am scared of Gholston as a work out warrior. He came up looking bad against LSU. We have had a few like Watson who is ok and Chad Jackson who is...who knows.
I put this in another thread but it was more suited for this one. What are your thoughts? The numbers actually work. We trade up, to trade down!

I would not mind Gholston but I think we can do better than a first round #7 pick with a few first round choices and and player in return. This is all based on the stars aligning, but why not. It's fun to speculate (don't hate Hitler youth out there, this is conjecture. This is made for pleasure not debate about my ancestry or mental capacity.).

Oakland lost a high pick in the Hall deal. I say swap out our #7 first rounder (worth 1,500) and our second rounder #62 (worth 284) for Oaklands' 4th (worth 1,800).
We know Jerry Jones has said he would not go for McFadden if he has to move that high because he figures it will cost him his #22 and his #28 in round one and his second rounder as well plus maybe RB Marion Barber III. But would he swap #22 and #28 (worth about 1,460) and ILB Bobby Carpenter (6' 2" 250 lbs and 4.62 40) for our then #4 first?
We could snag maybe CB DRC at#22 and OLB Dan Conner at #28 (Rivers received some bad Wonderlick numbers)and get Carpenter too. Just thinking out loud, but the Cowboys are shopping Carpenter for a #3, and a late #3 is about the same (360) in value. Would you do this? The numbers all about work and Jones doesn't have to give up almost the whole first day.
Hence the #7 brings us three possible starters.
Now we still have a pair of threes (I like ND TE Carlson early if he is still there and ASU SS Josh Barrett later in three and his 4.39 40 at 229 lbs).
In my opinion that would be a decent day one.
DW Toys

 

[14thDragon]

I think the most likely scenario is trading out to #10 (NO gets Ellis) and taking a CB. While they could trade down again, the Pats would just be accumulating mid-round picks. I don't think there are that many open roster spots to fill so they would have to hope those picks could be packaged in a later trade up scenario.

Well, I would rather have 4-5 guys make from the first 3 rounds and then have 4-7 compete against back-ups. Rather then try and find game day roster guys in the later rounds. If you can trade Down twice, then package to move up in the second, then you can get some good value.

I kinda like the thought of moving down with NO, then down with Detriot. Then take Groves at 15, package the threes with the 2 and move up with Miami in rd 2 and get Cason.

 

[DW Toys]

Well, I would rather have 4-5 guys make from the first 3 rounds and then have 4-7 compete against back-ups. Rather then try and find game day roster guys in the later rounds. If you can trade Down twice, then package to move up in the second, then you can get some good value.

I kinda like the thought of moving down with NO, then down with Detriot. Then take Groves at 15, package the threes with the 2 and move up with Miami in rd 2 and get Cason.

Excellent post sir.
DW Toys