The SF example is clear. If you can have all your defensive starters able to play 92% of the available snaps, your defense will thrive. The Pats (and 90% of the rest of the league) haven't come close to that standard. The Niners have been extraordinarily lucky with injuries this season....so far.
So why are people surprised the Pats defense didn't look great against the Jags, when they lost 3 starters and and had 2 more forced to switch positions (McCourty and Ninko)l. Compare that to the Niner D which literally collapsed when they lost just ONE guy.
Ken, aside from this obvious point, the point I was trying to make with the "reverse engineering" post about the 49ers was slightly different. Let me rephrase it.
Justin Smith will need offseason surgery and will be 34 at the beginning of the 2013 season. Though I expect him to be back at close to full strength next year, it's reasonable to assume that he's getting close to the downside of his career. The 49ers have the oldest starting DL in the NFL. Without Justin Smith the 49ers' previously elite defense has been very poor, albeit over a small sample size. We haven't even seen the Pats' defense at "full strength" this season (Talib/Dennard outside, McCourty at FS, Mayo-Spikes-Hightower at LB health, and a healthy Jones outside on one side and Ninkovich/Cunningham on the other with Wilfork-Love healthy in the middle). But for the small sample size that we've had with the secondary at it's ideal formation, that defense has been considerably better than the 49ers' defense has been without Smith.
So going into 2013, consider the following 2 defenses (ages of the players at the start of the 2013 season will be listed in parentheses):
Defense A:
DL: Jean-Francois (26) - Sapaoga (31) - McDonald (29)
LB: Brooks (29) - Willis (28) - Bowman (25) - ASmith (23)
DB: Whitner (28) - Goldson (28) - Rogers (32) - Brown (28)
Defense B:
DL: Ninkovich (29) - Wilfork (31) - Love (26) - Jones (23)
LB: Hgihtower (23) - Spikes (25) - Mayo (27)
DB: McCourty (26) - Gregory (30) - Talib (27) - Dennard (23)
Note that for defense B Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Alfonzo Dennard can be reasonably expected to significantly improve from their rookie seasons. That's not a given, it's a reasonable assumption for a second year starter.
Ask yourself the following 2 questions:
1. Which defense would you rather take as a base to build on for the future? Personally, I'd take defense B. It's younger, and the small body of evidence suggests that when that group is healthy it's a good defense, perhaps better than defense A right now (assuming no Justin Smith).
2. Given that Justin Smith transforms defense A from a mediocre defense to an elite one, what one or two players would you see adding to defense B that could transform it to an elite defense? It seems to me that there are 4 areas of defense B that could be improved, outside from improved health, continued development, and continuity from guys actually getting to be on the field together:
- A true dominant LDE opposite Chandler Jones. Ninkovich and Cunningham are solid, but a true stud would make a big difference getting outside pressure from bith edges.
- A more dominant inside presence next to Vince Wilfork. Depth at DT would be nice, and another beast inside would provide interior pressure and free Wilfork up to be more of a playmaker.
- A cover LB to shore up the middle of the field. We still get kills on those soft spots in the middle of the field.
- An upgrade at S opposite Devin McCourty. Unless Tavon Wilson makes a huge jump next year, we don't have the "answer" on the roster right now, though we can make do with what we have.
- One more CB. Unless Ras-I Dowling steps up, we could use a bit more depth outside. No one wants to see Kyle Arrington outside, and moving Devin McCourty outside in a pinch hurts the safety position and the secondary as a whole.
Again, we're adequate with what we have. The question is, which move(s) would have the most impact in transforming us from adequate to good to dominant?
If you look at the 2009 49ers' defense (a team that finished 6-10, with a defense that allowed 21+ PPG and a 65% completion percentage), that team had major problems in a number of areas:
- DL: Justin Smith was a Pro Bowler, but NT Aubrayo Franklin - a franchise tag player - underperformed. Changes for 2011: Franklin was let go, Isaac Sapaoga was moved inside, and sub Ray McDonald was promoted.
- LB: Patrick Willis was a Pro Bowler. Takeo Spikes played reasonably well but was aging, and OLBs Manny Lawson and Parys Harrylson didn't get much pressure. Changes for 2011: Spikes was let leave in FA and 2nd year man NaVorro Bowman was promoted, becoming an impact player. Aldon Smith was drafted with a top 10 pick and became a double digit sack force behind Justin Smith. And sub Ahmad Brooks was promoted, and provided a much more physical presence.
- DB: Dashon Goldson had been good in 2008 but had a down year in 2009, and the team had to decide whether to keep him. The other safety position was in flux between Shawntae Spencer and Reggie Smith. Nate Clements hadn't played up to his big money contract at CB, and Michael Lewis was a liability as well. Changes for 2011: Clements was cut and FA CB Carlos Rogers signed. Nickel back Tarrell Brown was promoted to outside CB opposite Rogers and thrived playing man defense with a good pass rush in front of him. Goldson was re-signed and made the Pro Bowl. FA S Donte Whitner was signed to shore up the other safety spot and provded a physical presence in the secondary.
The result was transforming a 21+ PPG defense with a porous secondary and no pass rush into a 14 PPG defense (for 29 games). The Pats' defense needs a heck of a lot less changes than the 2009 49ers' defense required. The question is whether the Pats can address them effectively for 2013 given their cap situation and meager draft picks.
If, for the sake of argument, I were to consider the 5 areas I listed above, my personal priority would be something like the following:
1. LDE. JJ Watt is the gold standard. Calais Campbell would be my second choice - if Arizona went into rebuild mode I'd trade our 1st and Mallett and something else for him an a second (he's only 26), if we could deal with his cap hit. The Pats went after Red Bryant last offseason, and then tried to fill the hole with Jonathan Fanene. Neither option worked out. Michael Johnson is a FA, but I'm not sure he offers enough against the run. Henry Melton could be intriguing as both a DT and a DE. Given that we don't likely have the cap space to address this in FA, the draft is the most likely possibility. Ziggy Ansah, Sam Montgomery, Tank Carradine (not likely to help in 2013) and Margus Hunt are options. Trent Murphy if he declares. Dion Jordan is intriguing, but not strong enough to be a full time end for us (see below). Stephon Tuitt for 2014 would be beastly, but will likely be a top 15 pick, so we'd have to trade into 2014 and double up. Another option would be to move Dont'a Hightower up on the line, which would increase the need for a LB, preferably one with more coverage ability (see #4).
2. DT. There's some overlap between this and LDE, given that some players may be able to play both outside and in, as Bryant and Fanene would have done. Someone like Henry Melton of Chicago could play an inside penetrating DT role but also move outside (he came out of Texas as a DE). Someone like Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams in the draft could help right away, and also move outside in a Red Bryant kind of role.
3. S. I could actually see Ras-I Dowling being moved to safety, but I'm in the minority on still believing Dowling has much upside. That would create a need at CB, and would flip-flop this with #5 below. Gregory-Wilson is uninspiring - great depth, but not great starters. Unless Nate Ebner channels his inner Super Man and bursts forth next year (very unlikely), someone like Kenny Phillips would be a big upgrade. A lot of people on this board want Ed Reed. I don't see it personally - he's 35, will cost more than he's worth, and is a short term rental at best. We need to build for the long term. We'd get at most one season from Reed, and I'm not interested in that.
4. Coverage LB. I wanted Lavonte David badly last year. A guy like Kyle Van Noy or Alec Ogletree could be a nice option, especially if Dont'a Hightower is moved up on the line. Someone like Dion Jordan could be intriguing as both a rush end and a coverage player, possibly alternating with Hightower as both a LB and a line player.
5. Extra CB. I'm hopeful that Dowling will step up as the #3 outside CB, but I'm in the minority in still believing in Dowling, and I actually like the idea of moving him to safety opposite Arrington.
A lot will depend on how much room the Pats have to address these needs. The 49ers did an exceptional job of addressing their needs between the 2009 and 2010 seasons, and hit on at least major decisions. The Pats don't need nearly that much to transform our current defense - when healthy and at full strength - into a potentially dominant unit.