The Patriots Defense ~ A Return to Dominance ~ The Quickening!!

[supafly]

Why are people surprised the Pats defense didn't look great when the lost 3 starters and and had 2 more have to switch positions (McCourty and Ninko)

Arrington could certainly count too, having switched from the slot CB where he is much, much better, back to the outside where he is a major liability.

The Pats are a beat up team right now and I have no idea how ready they'll be for the playoffs. I think we have been pretty luck in not losing too many people to the IR this season (just Fletcher, Dowling, and Pryor, IIRC)

Edelman was placed on IR also.

 

[mayoclinic]

The SF example is clear. If you can have all your defensive starters able to play 92% of the available snaps, your defense will thrive. The Pats (and 90% of the rest of the league) haven't come close to that standard. The Niners have been extraordinarily lucky with injuries this season....so far.

So why are people surprised the Pats defense didn't look great against the Jags, when they lost 3 starters and and had 2 more forced to switch positions (McCourty and Ninko)l. Compare that to the Niner D which literally collapsed when they lost just ONE guy.

Ken, aside from this obvious point, the point I was trying to make with the "reverse engineering" post about the 49ers was slightly different. Let me rephrase it.

Justin Smith will need offseason surgery and will be 34 at the beginning of the 2013 season. Though I expect him to be back at close to full strength next year, it's reasonable to assume that he's getting close to the downside of his career. The 49ers have the oldest starting DL in the NFL. Without Justin Smith the 49ers' previously elite defense has been very poor, albeit over a small sample size. We haven't even seen the Pats' defense at "full strength" this season (Talib/Dennard outside, McCourty at FS, Mayo-Spikes-Hightower at LB health, and a healthy Jones outside on one side and Ninkovich/Cunningham on the other with Wilfork-Love healthy in the middle). But for the small sample size that we've had with the secondary at it's ideal formation, that defense has been considerably better than the 49ers' defense has been without Smith.

So going into 2013, consider the following 2 defenses (ages of the players at the start of the 2013 season will be listed in parentheses):

Defense A:

DL: Jean-Francois (26) - Sapaoga (31) - McDonald (29)

LB: Brooks (29) - Willis (28) - Bowman (25) - ASmith (23)

DB: Whitner (28) - Goldson (28) - Rogers (32) - Brown (28)

Defense B:

DL: Ninkovich (29) - Wilfork (31) - Love (26) - Jones (23)

LB: Hgihtower (23) - Spikes (25) - Mayo (27)

DB: McCourty (26) - Gregory (30) - Talib (27) - Dennard (23)

Note that for defense B Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower and Alfonzo Dennard can be reasonably expected to significantly improve from their rookie seasons. That's not a given, it's a reasonable assumption for a second year starter.

Ask yourself the following 2 questions:

1. Which defense would you rather take as a base to build on for the future? Personally, I'd take defense B. It's younger, and the small body of evidence suggests that when that group is healthy it's a good defense, perhaps better than defense A right now (assuming no Justin Smith).

2. Given that Justin Smith transforms defense A from a mediocre defense to an elite one, what one or two players would you see adding to defense B that could transform it to an elite defense? It seems to me that there are 4 areas of defense B that could be improved, outside from improved health, continued development, and continuity from guys actually getting to be on the field together:

- A true dominant LDE opposite Chandler Jones. Ninkovich and Cunningham are solid, but a true stud would make a big difference getting outside pressure from bith edges.
- A more dominant inside presence next to Vince Wilfork. Depth at DT would be nice, and another beast inside would provide interior pressure and free Wilfork up to be more of a playmaker.
- A cover LB to shore up the middle of the field. We still get kills on those soft spots in the middle of the field.
- An upgrade at S opposite Devin McCourty. Unless Tavon Wilson makes a huge jump next year, we don't have the "answer" on the roster right now, though we can make do with what we have.
- One more CB. Unless Ras-I Dowling steps up, we could use a bit more depth outside. No one wants to see Kyle Arrington outside, and moving Devin McCourty outside in a pinch hurts the safety position and the secondary as a whole.

Again, we're adequate with what we have. The question is, which move(s) would have the most impact in transforming us from adequate to good to dominant?

If you look at the 2009 49ers' defense (a team that finished 6-10, with a defense that allowed 21+ PPG and a 65% completion percentage), that team had major problems in a number of areas:

- DL: Justin Smith was a Pro Bowler, but NT Aubrayo Franklin - a franchise tag player - underperformed. Changes for 2011: Franklin was let go, Isaac Sapaoga was moved inside, and sub Ray McDonald was promoted.

- LB: Patrick Willis was a Pro Bowler. Takeo Spikes played reasonably well but was aging, and OLBs Manny Lawson and Parys Harrylson didn't get much pressure. Changes for 2011: Spikes was let leave in FA and 2nd year man NaVorro Bowman was promoted, becoming an impact player. Aldon Smith was drafted with a top 10 pick and became a double digit sack force behind Justin Smith. And sub Ahmad Brooks was promoted, and provided a much more physical presence.

- DB: Dashon Goldson had been good in 2008 but had a down year in 2009, and the team had to decide whether to keep him. The other safety position was in flux between Shawntae Spencer and Reggie Smith. Nate Clements hadn't played up to his big money contract at CB, and Michael Lewis was a liability as well. Changes for 2011: Clements was cut and FA CB Carlos Rogers signed. Nickel back Tarrell Brown was promoted to outside CB opposite Rogers and thrived playing man defense with a good pass rush in front of him. Goldson was re-signed and made the Pro Bowl. FA S Donte Whitner was signed to shore up the other safety spot and provded a physical presence in the secondary.

The result was transforming a 21+ PPG defense with a porous secondary and no pass rush into a 14 PPG defense (for 29 games). The Pats' defense needs a heck of a lot less changes than the 2009 49ers' defense required. The question is whether the Pats can address them effectively for 2013 given their cap situation and meager draft picks.

If, for the sake of argument, I were to consider the 5 areas I listed above, my personal priority would be something like the following:

1. LDE. JJ Watt is the gold standard. Calais Campbell would be my second choice - if Arizona went into rebuild mode I'd trade our 1st and Mallett and something else for him an a second (he's only 26), if we could deal with his cap hit. The Pats went after Red Bryant last offseason, and then tried to fill the hole with Jonathan Fanene. Neither option worked out. Michael Johnson is a FA, but I'm not sure he offers enough against the run. Henry Melton could be intriguing as both a DT and a DE. Given that we don't likely have the cap space to address this in FA, the draft is the most likely possibility. Ziggy Ansah, Sam Montgomery, Tank Carradine (not likely to help in 2013) and Margus Hunt are options. Trent Murphy if he declares. Dion Jordan is intriguing, but not strong enough to be a full time end for us (see below). Stephon Tuitt for 2014 would be beastly, but will likely be a top 15 pick, so we'd have to trade into 2014 and double up. Another option would be to move Dont'a Hightower up on the line, which would increase the need for a LB, preferably one with more coverage ability (see #4).

2. DT. There's some overlap between this and LDE, given that some players may be able to play both outside and in, as Bryant and Fanene would have done. Someone like Henry Melton of Chicago could play an inside penetrating DT role but also move outside (he came out of Texas as a DE). Someone like Johnathan Hankins or Jesse Williams in the draft could help right away, and also move outside in a Red Bryant kind of role.

3. S. I could actually see Ras-I Dowling being moved to safety, but I'm in the minority on still believing Dowling has much upside. That would create a need at CB, and would flip-flop this with #5 below. Gregory-Wilson is uninspiring - great depth, but not great starters. Unless Nate Ebner channels his inner Super Man and bursts forth next year (very unlikely), someone like Kenny Phillips would be a big upgrade. A lot of people on this board want Ed Reed. I don't see it personally - he's 35, will cost more than he's worth, and is a short term rental at best. We need to build for the long term. We'd get at most one season from Reed, and I'm not interested in that.

4. Coverage LB. I wanted Lavonte David badly last year. A guy like Kyle Van Noy or Alec Ogletree could be a nice option, especially if Dont'a Hightower is moved up on the line. Someone like Dion Jordan could be intriguing as both a rush end and a coverage player, possibly alternating with Hightower as both a LB and a line player.

5. Extra CB. I'm hopeful that Dowling will step up as the #3 outside CB, but I'm in the minority in still believing in Dowling, and I actually like the idea of moving him to safety opposite Arrington.

A lot will depend on how much room the Pats have to address these needs. The 49ers did an exceptional job of addressing their needs between the 2009 and 2010 seasons, and hit on at least major decisions. The Pats don't need nearly that much to transform our current defense - when healthy and at full strength - into a potentially dominant unit.

 

[patsfan13]

- A true dominant LDE opposite Chandler Jones. Ninkovich and Cunningham are solid, but a true stud would make a big difference getting outside pressure from bith edges.

Desirable but tough to find, not sure who would be available in the draft, Francis seems to have a good upside, it will be interesting to see how he develops after a full off season program.

- A more dominant inside presence next to Vince Wilfork. Depth at DT would be nice, and another beast inside would provide interior pressure and free Wilfork up to be more of a playmaker.

I think Love is doing a good job growing into this role, of course Cunningham is part of a sub package on passing downs. Does Forston have talent to develop, I do see a draft pick here however. For depth behind Love and VW.

- A cover LB to shore up the middle of the field. We still get kills on those soft spots in the middle of the field.

Is Fletcher a fit for this role in the absence of adding a player here? Could Ebner be used in some situation role as a big nickle role?

- An upgrade at S opposite Devin McCourty. Unless Tavon Wilson makes a huge jump next year, we don't have the "answer" on the roster right now, though we can make do with what we have.

Well Chung will be gone, Gregory in a 3rd S role I am happy with, Dowling is intriguing in this spot. I do however expect to see Wilson stepping up and being a starter next to MCCourty.

- One more CB. Unless Ras-I Dowling steps up, we could use a bit more depth outside. No one wants to see Kyle Arrington outside, and moving Devin McCourty outside in a pinch hurts the safety position and the secondary as a whole.

Yep even if Wilson works out and Dowling stays at CB we need another body here, preferably a guy who can play both the slot and outside. As long as Talib's hip isn't a ongoing issue I am happy with him and Dennard as the starters.

With Fletcher coming back we can use Hightower and Mayo more to provide extra pass rush.

Again, we're adequate with what we have. The question is, which move(s) would have the most impact in transforming us from adequate to good to dominant?

The biggest move is the development of the young'uns and a healthy season for a change.

In terms of roster think of adding a player at each level, pass rushing DE, coverage LB and a DB position TBD based on Dowling, Talib & Wilson health/development.


The rebuilt D is on the verge of having the personnel to go on a 3-5 year run as an elite D, if this were to pan out this team may pick up a few Lombardi's.

We sometimes forget how YOUNG this group is.

 

[mayoclinic]

The biggest move is the development of the young'uns and a healthy season for a change.

In terms of roster think of adding a player at each level, pass rushing DE, coverage LB and a DB position TBD based on Dowling, Talib & Wilson health/development.

The rebuilt D is on the verge of having the personnel to go on a 3-5 year run as an elite D, if this were to pan out this team may pick up a few Lombardi's.

We sometimes forget how YOUNG this group is.

I've listed some of the FA/draft candidates of interest to me later in m post. But I agree, there is room for development, on several levels:

1. We have 3 rookie starters - Jones, Hightower and Dennard - who can reasonably be expected to take a significant step forward in their second year.

2. We have a number potential role players who are still young and who could continue to develop: DEs Cunningham, Francis and possibly Bequette, DTs Love and Deaderick (and Pryor may be back), LB Fletcher and DBs Dowling, Wilson and possibly even Ebner. If any of these guys takes a significant step forward, it will be a major plus.

3. The defense has barely had any time together as a unit. Talib has only been with the team for 6 weeks, Jones missed part of that time due to injury, Cunningham due to suspension, Talib and Dennard have been banged up the past few weeks. Imagine what the defense could do with an offseason and a training camp together with their roles defined.

The 49ers made at least 8 significant defensive changes between the 2010 and 2011 seasons:

- DL: letting Aubrayo Franklin walk, moving Isaac Sapaoga to nose and promoting Ray McDonald to a starting role

- LB: letting Takeo Spikes and Manny Lawson walk, the emergence of second year ILB NaVorro Bowman as a force, the emergence of rookie DE/OLB Aldon Smith as a pass rushing force, and promoting Ahmad Brooks to a starting role

- DB: dumping Nate Clements, re-signing Dashon Goldson, signing Carlos Rogers and Donte Whitner, making Tarrell Brown a starting outside CB, and drafting Chris Culliver to be the new nickel back

That's a huge turnover. Most of those moves succeeded spectacularly and produced almost immediate results, which is a credit to the 49ers FO and coaching staff. McDonald, Bowman, Brooks, Aldon Smith, Rogers, Brown, Whitner and Goldson all stepped up and produced at a significantly higher level in 2011 than had their predecessors (or they themselves had) in 2010.

In contrast, the Pats have made slightly less significant changes this season:

- DL: letting Andre Carter and Mark Anderson Walk, drafting Chandler Jones as the core LDE and moving Rob Ninkovitch to DE

- LB: drafting Dont'a Hightower

- DB: moving Devin McCourty to FS, siging Steve Gregory and drafting Tavon Wilson, trading for Aqib Talib and drafting Alfonzo Dennard, with Kyle Arrington moving to the nickel back

The core is hopefully set. Keeping continuity by retaining the current players and positional assignments, letting the dust settle, and perhaps adding 1-2 key additions through the draft, should make a huge difference. If the FO and coaching staff can accomplish those things, I think we'll see a big jump next year.

 

[aluminum seats]

Arrington could certainly count too, having switched from the slot CB where he is much, much better, back to the outside where he is a major liability.



Edelman was placed on IR also.

And Demps....would have been nice to have that KR threat this year.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

What'd you guys think of Chung's performance on Sunday? Truthfully I didn't notice him much outside of the picks and his personal foul. Is that a good thing? Do you think he's in for an increase in PT even when/if all the guys are healthy?

 

[Mack Herron]

What'd you guys think of Chung's performance on Sunday? Truthfully I didn't notice him much outside of the picks and his personal foul. Is that a good thing? Do you think he's in for an increase in PT even when/if all the guys are healthy?

It wasn't perfect but I didn't see passes flying over his head and he laid the wood which adds a toughness to the secondary that is absent without him. With all the injuries at CB McCourty will have to move to CB again Sun and I expect to see more of Chung.

 

[mayoclinic]

What'd you guys think of Chung's performance on Sunday? Truthfully I didn't notice him much outside of the picks and his personal foul. Is that a good thing? Do you think he's in for an increase in PT even when/if all the guys are healthy?

I hope not.

 

[cstjohn17]

I'm fairly confident that this defense at full strength can be quite good. I don't have much confidence in this defense when it's patched together with band aids and guys playing out of position.

I haven't seen enough consistency to be confident, SF came in and lit them up at home. I was expecting them to march and beat Jacksonville within an edge of their life but instead I watched Chad "Dan Marino" Henne march up and down the field.

They play so vanilla, last year they were making strides heading into the playoffs. Maybe Miami can change my opinion but at this point they haven't proven much.

Hopefully Spikes is healthy because he is a force and changes the tone of the defense but more importantly Brady better be lights for the team to be a true contender, the defense is just along for the ride.

 

[mayoclinic]

I haven't seen enough consistency to be confident, SF came in and lit them up at home. I was expecting them to march and beat Jacksonville within an edge of their life but instead I watched Chad "Dan Marino" Henne march up and down the field.

What do you think "at full strength" means? Talib and Dennard got hurt against Houston, Dennard got banged up again against San Francisco. In spite of that they didn't play that badly against San Francisco, but they had their backs against the wall with poor field position for too long. Dennard didn't play against Jacksonville, Talib played all of 8 snaps, McCourty had to be moved to CB, Kyle Arrington played outside, we had Chung and Gregory back at safety, and Brandon Spikes was out. As I said, I have no confidence in a patchwork defense band-aided together with guys out of position, and how can you expect anything but vanilla schemes from that kind of mish-mash? Chandler Jones only showed flashes of regaining his former form at the end of the Jacksonville game, so he really hasn't been a factor since his return. Cunningham has been out.

Give me the defense at full strength and playing their appropriate positions, and I'm reasonably comfortable.

 

[ddanny1992]

As much as I have seen chung regress, last sunday he bought more of a physical presence to the secondary, he is a hard hitter but he has coverage issues. I would like to see him get more playing time, I think he will also be back next year, he won't be let go.

 

[mayoclinic]

As much as I have seen chung regress, last sunday he bought more of a physical presence to the secondary, he is a hard hitter but he has coverage issues. I would like to see him get more playing time, I think he will also be back next year, he won't be let go.

Chung's "coverage issues" terrify me.

The bottom line is that he's a FA after this year. Where does he fit? Is he a starter? I don't think he's proven it, and if the Pats pay him starting money it's going to impact elsewhere. It would be a terrible decision, IMHO. Even to give him backup money will probably mean not re-signing someone else. Would I take Chung over Gregory and Wilson? Maybe, if his role could be defined in a way to limit his coverage liabilities, but that's a big "if". But even so, Gregory is under contract, and Chung isn't.

I can't see it. I think Chung is auditioning for someone else to pay him.

 

[mayoclinic]

A few predictions of my own:

1. By the end of season the Pats' defense will be averaging under 20 PPG. They have given up 274 points for the season, which means they will have to average around 15 PPG over the next 3 games to achieve that. I believe that is eminently manageable against San Francisco, Jacksonville and Miami. I think we will end up around 6th or 7th in scoring defense.

Well, the SF game blew my prediction out of the water, but not by much. The Pats' D finishes with it's first shutout since 2009 (the 59-0 Tennessee game) to end up with 331 points on the season, for an average of slightly under 20.7 PPG. I'm guessing that will leave them around 10th in scoring defense when all is said and done. Except for the SF game - which was influenced by poor field position due to ST play and turnovers - the defense has averaged 15.25 PPG since the St. Louis game.

Congrats to the defense on finishing on a high note. Hopefully this will set the tone for a playoff defense. If the defense plays like this - and with Talib and Dennard rested for 2 weeks, it should be better - and home field advantage for at least 1 game, the Pats should be well positioned to make a Super Bowl run.

 

[mayoclinic]

Washington and Dallas have both already given up more points than the Pats, so it looks like the Pats will finish tied with Houston for 9th in fewest points allowed with 331 (20.7 PPG):

1. Seattle - 245 (15.3 PPG)
2. San Francisco - 273 (17.1 PPG)
3. Chicago - 277 (17.3 PPG)
4. Denver - 289 (18.1 PPG)
5. Atlanta - 299 (18.7 PPG)
6. Pittsburgh - 314 (19.6 PPG)
7. Miami - 317 (19.8 PPG)
8. Cincinnati - 320 (20 PPG)

 

[Off The Grid]

Washington and Dallas have both already given up more points than the Pats, so it looks like the Pats will finish tied with Houston for 9th in fewest points allowed with 331 (20.7 PPG):

1. Seattle - 245 (15.3 PPG)
2. San Francisco - 273 (17.1 PPG)
3. Chicago - 277 (17.3 PPG)
4. Denver - 289 (18.1 PPG)
5. Atlanta - 299 (18.7 PPG)
6. Pittsburgh - 314 (19.6 PPG)
7. Miami - 317 (19.8 PPG)
8. Cincinnati - 320 (20 PPG)

You called it, Buddy.

And of course we get the TieBreaker over Planet Hoosten.

Not exactly "dominant" ~ yet ~ but light years better than the nightmarish debacle that some of the spastic colons around here were forecasting!!

Better Yet: 18.666 Points Per Game since the week after Devin McCourty moved to Free Safety.

That would've been good enough for 5th. :rocker:

As I, you, and others've said all along: It's how you finish the Season that counts.

And we're about to find out...in the weeks ahead.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some nice stuff regarding the defense against Miami, as reported by Reiss from the "Patriots All-Access" show:

X's & O's: Pressure & Chandler Jones - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

"Strong coverage + strong pass rush = good defense". Sounds pretty simple. Not to mention a good run defense. And hearing BB say that Chandler Jones may have played his best game of the season is music to my ears.

The defense has not yet played a full game with Talib/Dennard at CB, McCourty at FS, Jones at RDE, and all healthy. Jones left early against Indy, was a shadow of his self aganst Houston, and Talib only played half a game against Houston. The Pats' run defense also suffered with Jones out, as he is an extraordinary edge setter.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I think there are a couple of options, depending on how the draft falls:

1. Pick up a potential LDE to pair opposite Jones. Guys who come to mind include Ziggy Ansah, Tank Carradine (not likely to see the field in 2013 due to an ACL injury), Margus Hunt, Datone Jones, and possibly Devin Taylor. It's also not out of the questoin that someone could fall.

2. Move Dont'a Hightower primarily to LDE and pick up a more mobile 4-3 OLB type. Alec Ogletree would be one such example.

3. Pick up a "big" DT/DE with the versatility to play outside. The wouldn't provide an edge rush, but it would add some versatility. The Pats obviously had some interest in this given their interest in Red Bryant and the Jonathan Fanene signing. The Pats could use what they currently have for edge rushing alternatives.

Just some preliminary thoughts.

Just think about how much losing Justin Smith has impacted the 49ers Defense. Justin Smith might not get as many sacks as Aldon Smith, but when he is in there, he allows Aldon Smith to shine. If the Pats could get that type of player, I think Chandler Jones would make an even bigger impact for us.

As for the Pats overall defense this year, I've definitely seen improvements. Week 17's shutout points to good things for us defensively peaking at the right time. 3 more shutouts is too much to ask for but darn wouldn't that be a great return to Superbowl form? ^_^

 

[mayoclinic]

Just think about how much losing Justin Smith has impacted the 49ers Defense. Justin Smith might not get as many sacks as Aldon Smith, but when he is in there, he allows Aldon Smith to shine. If the Pats could get that type of player, I think Chandler Jones would make an even bigger impact for us.

As for the Pats overall defense this year, I've definitely seen improvements. Week 17's shutout points to good things for us defensively peaking at the right time. 3 more shutouts is too much to ask for but darn wouldn't that be a great return to Superbowl form? ^_^

See posts #59 and #62 above. Losing Justin Smith has transformed the 49ers defense from one of the top 2 in the NFL to ordinary. Aldon Smith hasn't had a sack since Justin Smith got hurt. Losing Smith has allowed teams to run right at Aldon Smith, and the lack of effective pressure has made it easier for them to attack SF's man coverage schemes. The 49ers have good but not great CBs, who do great as long as they generate pressure up front with a 4 man rush, but who don't do nearly as well when the front 4 can't get pressure or when the team has to blitz. It's a reverse example of the "domino effect" that the Pats experienced when Talib was added and things settled down in the secondary.

Adding one or two more studs to the defense (assuming Talib is re-signed and the core from 2012 remains intact) could have a similar impact on the Pats' defense for 2013, putting it over the top as a top 10, or even top 5 defense. That player or players could be any of:

- A playmaking safety to complement McCourty
- A LB with coverage ability, allowing Hightower to move up on the DL
- An impact LDE
- An interior pass rusher

 

[RobertWeathers]

Just think about how much losing Justin Smith has impacted the 49ers Defense. Justin Smith might not get as many sacks as Aldon Smith, but when he is in there, he allows Aldon Smith to shine. If the Pats could get that type of player, I think Chandler Jones would make an even bigger impact for us.As for the Pats overall defense this year, I've definitely seen improvements. Week 17's shutout points to good things for us defensively peaking at the right time. 3 more shutouts is too much to ask for but darn wouldn't that be a great return to Superbowl form? ^_^

In no way am I implying that Brandon Deaderick is the equivilent to what Justin Smith brings to the field but having the rush come from the interior is, in my opinion the single-most important part of the defense for 3 reasons.

1) Collapse the pocket and force the QB to move, thus helping the secondary.
2) Force the RB to go sideways and help the LBs flow the ballcarrier unimpeded.
3) Force either guard to help the center and allow for the ends to rush 1:1 over the tackle or other DTs to stunt.

Personally, I thought in his prime Seymour was the MVP of the defense because of those 3 things and if Deaderick can do 50% of what guys like Sey, Smith, Suh can do, that'll make a world of difference down the road.

 

[mayoclinic]

So let's try an exercise in reverse analysis:

- Since drafting Aldon Smith and acquiring FA Carlos Rogers in 2011 along with re-signing FS Dashon Goldson and the maturation of Navorro Bowman into an impact player, the 49ers' defense allowed an average of just over 14 PPG throughout the 2011 season and for the first 13 games of the 2012 season. As mentioned above, they had the good fortune to be able to have 10 of their 11 starters play over 92% of the defensive snap count for those 13 games this season. They held the most prolific offense in the NFL to 3 points for most of 3 quarters in game 14.

- Since Justin Smith injured his elbow against the Patriots, the 49ers have given up 73 points in slightly more than 5 quarters.

What has causes such a drastic change in a dominant defense? In an interesting piece, Bucky Brooks of NFL.com looks at some of the issues behind the "collapse" of the San Francisco defense:

San Francisco 49ers' defense falling apart without Justin Smith - NFL.com

Brooks' analysis focuses on 3 basic elements:

1. Offenses running the ball at Aldon Smith.
2. Easier ability for offenses to scheme against Aldon Smith in pass protection with Justin Smith setting picks for him against opposing guards.
3. With the pass rush neutralized, it has been much easier to attack the 49ers secondary and straightforward man coverage schemes.

What's interesting about this analysis is that it shows the kind of "domino" effect that we saw with the Aqib Talib trade, but in reverse: take away one key player, and the entire nature of the defense changes dramatically.

Looking at the Pats' defense - assuming that Talib and Dennard stay at CB and McCourty at FS for the long term - it would seem to me that if the Pats had succeeded in getting a guy like Red Bryant (or even Jonathan Fanene, had he been able to play as expected) who had been able to play outside or inside and generate a combination of effective run stopping and outside and inside pressure, that it would have had a similar impact on the overall effectiveness of the defense. Imagine what a Calais Campbell or a Henry Melton (who came out as a defensive end) could do. Even a rookie like Ziggy Ansah, Sam Montgomery or Sheldon Richardson could potentially have a significant impact.

For people that think are skeptical that this defense might only be 1-2 players away from being dominant, it's interesting how the loss of Justin Smith - just 1 player - has transformed the 49ers defense from giving up 14 PPG over the previous 29 games to averaging 38 PPG over its last 2 games.

Another example of reverse analysison view this weekend: Seattle lost Chris Clemons to an ACL injury against Washington last week, and they have been able to generate no effective pressure against Atlanta, and have also been getting shredded in the run game - not surprising, since Bruce Irvin is nowhere near the run defender that Clemons is. Irvin the impact 3rd down pass rusher becomes Irvin the every down liability. Again, an example of how the loss of just one key player is having a huge effect on what was previously an elite defense. The run defense has already given up 142 yards in less than 3 quarters, and the lack of pressure on Ryan has made things too difficult for even a very good secondary, matched up against equally good receivers. Seattle hadn't given up more than 28 points all season, but has already given up 27 through less than 3 quarters.

The Pats' D has been making do with band-aids all season. Healthy, they're not far off of these other D's. Add one or two players, and they're close to taking the next step towards becoming elite. Take the Pats' current D, all healthy, re-sign Aqib Talib, get Ras-I Dowling back as either an extra CB or as a safety to pair with McCourty, and add a DL like Armond Armstead ... pow. Instant impact defense going into 2013, without even looking at FA or the draft.