The Patriots Defense ~ A Return to Dominance ~ The Quickening!!

[patsfaninpa]

1) Sure, I'd like a premier pass-rushing LDE. Stud LDE's are hard to get given where we pick. Every team would like a stud, pass-rushing DE. I'm fine with Ninkovich, Jones, Wilfork, Deaderick, Francis, Love, and Cunningham. I would note that we have 2-3 youngsters in that group who should develop.

2) You must be assuming that we are re-signing Talib, Vollmer and Welker. I'm fine with our safety situation for 2013. Are you?

I like the hybrid 4-3 we're playing. I'd put Hightower at Ninko's spot. Improves athleticism there. Draft a dt to help the interior pass rush and olb who can play in space. A 6'2"230lb who can run 4.55 - 4.60 not Donta Hightower. He's got to be 270lb. Not a 4-3 olb. I think that improves at 3 positions; dt, de and olb. The other slot would be the safety opposite McCourty. Not sure we have the answer on our roster.

 

[mayoclinic]

1) Sure, I'd like a premier pass-rushing LDE. Stud LDE's are hard to get given where we pick. Every team would like a stud, pass-rushing DE. I'm fine with Ninkovich, Jones, Wilfork, Deaderick, Francis, Love, and Cunningham. I would note that we have 2-3 youngsters in that group who should develop.

2) You must be assuming that we are re-signing Talib, Vollmer and Welker. I'm fine with our safety situation for 2013. Are you?

I like the hybrid 4-3 we're playing. I'd put Hightower at Ninko's spot. Improves athleticism there. Draft a dt to help the interior pass rush and olb who can play in space. A 6'2"230lb who can run 4.55 - 4.60 not Donta Hightower. He's got to be 270lb. Not a 4-3 olb. I think that improves at 3 positions; dt, de and olb. The other slot would be the safety opposite McCourty. Not sure we have the answer on our roster.

I think there are a couple of options, depending on how the draft falls:

1. Pick up a potential LDE to pair opposite Jones. Guys who come to mind include Ziggy Ansah, Tank Carradine (not likely to see the field in 2013 due to an ACL injury), Margus Hunt, Datone Jones, and possibly Devin Taylor. It's also not out of the questoin that someone could fall.

2. Move Dont'a Hightower primarily to LDE and pick up a more mobile 4-3 OLB type. Alec Ogletree would be one such example.

3. Pick up a "big" DT/DE with the versatility to play outside. The wouldn't provide an edge rush, but it would add some versatility. The Pats obviously had some interest in this given their interest in Red Bryant and the Jonathan Fanene signing. The Pats could use what they currently have for edge rushing alternatives.

Just some preliminary thoughts.

 

[Off The Grid]

1 ~ A nice Game with a severely undermanned Crew against the Jaguars, despite an opening 10:00 that induced the usual Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth from those with weak hearts and short attention spans.

2 ~ Even so: If this Defense is going to fulfill my aggressively ambitious Prediction at the dawn of this Season, they will have to do so when it counts most: in the Dark Depths of Winter, against the best teams in the League.

But they are, in The Immortal Words of Brother Bluto, just the guys to do it.

 

[mayoclinic]

1 ~ A nice Game with a severely undermanned Crew against the Jaguars, despite an opening 10:00 that induced the usual Wailing & Gnashing of Teeth from those with weak hearts and short attention spans.

2 ~ Even so: If this Defense is going to fulfill my aggressively ambitious Prediction at the dawn of this Season, they will have to do so when it counts most: in the Dark Depths of Winter, against the best teams in the League.

But they are, in The Immortal Words of Brother Bluto, just the guys to do it.

The defense with Arrington outside and Chung-Gregory at safety isn't going to dominate a Pop Warner game, so I make no judgments based on the Jacksonville debacle.

The transformation of San Francisco's defense from averaging 14PPG to giving up 73 points in the last 5+ quarters since Justin Smith got hurt shows how much an injury to a single key player can affect a defense. Prior to that point, San Francisco had played the entire season with 10 starters playing over 92% of the defensive snap count (DBs Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Tarrell Brown and Carols Rogers; LBs Patrick Willis, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks; and DLs Justin Smith and Ray McDonald). Great players, but it's a heck lot easier for a defense to be "dominant" with that kind of continuity. The Pats have had only 2 players play only 90%+ of the defensive snap count this season - Jerod Mayo and Devin McCourty, and McCourty has had to flip flop positions all season.

I'm fairly confident that this defense at full strength can be quite good. I don't have much confidence in this defense when it's patched together with band aids and guys playing out of position.

Jones showed signs of finally re-gaining his early form. Cunningham will be back. The DL should be at full strength going into the playoffs barring injuries this week.

Spikes was out against Jacksonville, and that hurt. Hopefully he will be fully healthy for the playoffs. Hightower is rounding into form.

The secondary is the biggest question. We need Talib and Dennard healthy.

Let's see how things look after this week, and re-assess.

 

[Gwedd]

Pretty much what MayoClinic wrote.

We get the defense back in shape with all of it's players back from injury, and I'm not going to worry much about any other team in the playoffs.

 

[robbomango]

I thought BB's WEEI interview was interesting, he had some straight forward answers to the defensive troubles early on.

a few BB comments:

"As it turned out they came in with a little bit of a new look with the no huddle and long cadences at the line trying get the right play, trying to take advantage of our defensive looks being very patient with our disguised looks"

"We weren't really prepared for that as we should'v been"

"Jacksonville was attacking us different than what we prepared for and what we practiced against with a bit of a Denver type of attack, Peyton Manning Broncos type of attack."

"The things we did in the game were mostly things we hadn't done all week in practice"

"Once we saw what was going on we were able to defend it much better"

Sounded like the Defensive problems had a lot to do with Jacksonvilles surprise game plan and BB's lack of preparation for it. Another Super Bowl game plan/effort launched on the Patriots falls victim to BB's mysterious in game adjustments. I was a little more impressed with the W after hearing that.

EDIT: link Bill Belichick on WEEI - 12/24/2012

 

[Triumph]

I love Nink, but I've been saying a stud LDE is our top defensive priority for 2013 for a while.

Safety is also a top priority.

 

[mayoclinic]

I thought BB's WEEI interview was interesting, he had some straight forward answers to the defensive troubles early on.

a few BB comments:

"As it turned out they came in with a little bit of a new look with the no huddle and long cadences at the line trying get the right play, trying to take advantage of our defensive looks being very patient with our disguised looks"

"We weren't really prepared for that as we should'v been"

"Jacksonville was attacking us different than what we prepared for and what we practiced against with a bit of a Denver type of attack, Peyton Manning Broncos type of attack."

"The things we did in the game were mostly things we hadn't done all week in practice"

"Once we saw what was going on we were able to defend it much better"

Sounded like the Defensive problems had a lot to do with Jacksonvilles surprise game plan and BB's lack of preparation for it. Another Super Bowl game plan/effort launched on the Patriots falls victim to BB's mysterious in game adjustments. I was a little more impressed with the W after hearing that.

EDIT: link Bill Belichick on WEEI - 12/24/2012

In spite of the abysmal start to the Jacksonville game, the Pats still held them to 16 points, making it less than 20 points in 4 of their last 5 games: 19 to the Jets, 16 to Miami, 14 to Houston (including a garbage time TD with good field position off a Mallett INT and 16 to Jax. The 41 to SF was at least in part a product of abysmal field position due to turnovers and ST play.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm fine with our safety situation for 2013. Are you?

Safety is also a top priority.

I'm somewhat in between these 2 extremes.

As I've stated many times, I want McCourty to stay at FS. I think he has Earl Thomas potential as a perenniel Pro Bowl caliber FS - perhaps even a bit better than Thomas once his instincts develop. I think the position plays to his strength in terms of reading the field (and he's better looking forward than looking back), reaction speed, procesisng speed, and functioning as the "QB" of the secondary. He improves the overall secondary play and communication at FS. I hate all of this jerking him back and forth between S and CB.

I've also been clear that I want no part of Pat Chung in our future plans, and no part of Arrington at outside CB. If Arrington can be retained for the slot at reasonable cost, fine, but otherwise Cole is solid, and I want Talib and Dennard outside.

As for the rest of the safety position, I consider Gregory-Wilson-Ebner to be far from ideal, so I wouldn't go so far as to echo the "I'm fine with our safety situation for 2013". But as long as McCourty is at FS I can live with it. I don't think a rookie is likely to add much. I have some hopes for Wilson and Ebner improving, and I think that limiting Gregory's role improves his effectiveness. I'd like a FA like Kenny Phillips if we can afford it, though I'm not sure we can. So my take is that I can life with what we have for 2013, and it's not as high a priority for me as the DL, but I'd still like to upgrade the other safety position if possible.

Of course, if McCourty doesn't stay at safety, then the position because an acute need of the absolute highest priority, without question.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

It's been a decade now of teams regardless of overall performance or their own best interest focusing a lot of attention on coming to play when they face us and that includes their coaching and game planning. It's a compliment I could live without. We should always find time to anticipate the unanticipated because that's the situation we often end up facing. Miami will again be playing for a win over us at home and the all important 8-8, just like Saban's swan song. For those players this week is all about resumes.

Love this thread title. This season overall has been a Quckening of sorts, close but someone or something just a hair off... Hopefully everyone can pull together as we enter the home stretch because it's true in the end there can be only one...

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Re: The Patriots Defense ~ A Return to Dominance ~ The Quckening!!

The defense with Arrington outside and Chung-Gregory at safety isn't going to dominate a Pop Warner game, so I make no judgments based on the Jacksonville debacle.

The transformation of San Francisco's defense from averaging 14PPG to giving up 73 points in the last 5+ quarters since Justin Smith got hurt shows how much an injury to a single key player can affect a defense. Prior to that point, San Francisco had played the entire season with 10 starters playing over 92% of the defensive snap count (DBs Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Tarrell Brown and Carols Rogers; LBs Patrick Willis, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks; and DLs Justin Smith and Ray McDonald). Great players, but it's a heck lot easier for a defense to be "dominant" with that kind of continuity. The Pats have had only 2 players play only 90%+ of the defensive snap count this season - Jerod Mayo and Devin McCourty, and McCourty has had to flip flop positions all season.

I'm fairly confident that this defense at full strength can be quite good. I don't have much confidence in this defense when it's patched together with band aids and guys playing out of position.

Jones showed signs of finally re-gaining his early form. Cunningham will be back. The DL should be at full strength going into the playoffs barring injuries this week.

Spikes was out against Jacksonville, and that hurt. Hopefully he will be fully healthy for the playoffs. Hightower is rounding into form.

The secondary is the biggest question. We need Talib and Dennard healthy.

Let's see how things look after this week, and re-assess.

Spot on analysis. Let's get Talib-Dennard-Spikes healthy and Jones back to form, this defense could look even better than they did against Houston with a dominant pass rush off the edge.

 

[Marqui]

Re: The Patriots Defense ~ A Return to Dominance ~ The Quckening!!

Spot on analysis. Let's get Talib-Dennard-Spikes healthy and Jones back to form, this defense could look even better than they did against Houston with a dominant pass rush off the edge.

Pats definitely don't have the personnel to have a "dominant pass rush off the edge" this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: The Patriots Defense ~ A Return to Dominance ~ The Quckening!!

Pats definitely don't have the personnel to have a "dominant pass rush off the edge" this year.

No, but a healthy Chandler Jones should give them a better one than they had in the Houston game.

 

[Mack Herron]

Re: The Patriots Defense ~ A Return to Dominance ~ The Quckening!!

No, but a healthy Chandler Jones should give them a better one than they had in the Houston game.

Not to mention Cunningham. Not fearsome, but as good as have had this year, especially if we can work in some LB blitzing.

 

[mayoclinic]

Re: The Patriots Defense ~ A Return to Dominance ~ The Quckening!!

Not to mention Cunningham. Not fearsome, but as good as have had this year, especially if we can work in some LB blitzing.

Forgot to mention him. Thanks for the reminder. The pass rush hasn't been at full strength since before the Indy game.

 

[BananaRepublican]

The 41 to SF was at least in part a product of abysmal field position due to turnovers and ST play.

Exactamente señor.

I don't know if it ever got mentioned but their punter beat the living crap out of us all night long. He averaged about 55. I never saw a more Guy'esque performance in a big game. He really kept us pinned in extremely poor field position. If you three-and-out after starting on your 12 then things get really ugly. The pre-Dennard injury defense was not the problem no matter what the score said.

 

[mayoclinic]

Exactamente señor.

I don't know if it ever got mentioned but their punter beat the living crap out of us all night long. He averaged about 55. I never saw a more Guy'esque performance in a big game. He really kept us pinned in extremely poor field position. If you three-and-out after starting on your 12 then things get really ugly. The pre-Dennard injury defense was not the problem no matter what the score said.

Andy Lee's been one of the best punters in the NFL for years, if not the best. He does that kind of stuff all the time.

 

[Off The Grid]

We get the defense back in shape with all of it's players back from injury, and I'm not going to worry much about any other team in the playoffs.

Exquisitely put.

 

[mayoclinic]

The defense with Arrington outside and Chung-Gregory at safety isn't going to dominate a Pop Warner game, so I make no judgments based on the Jacksonville debacle.

The transformation of San Francisco's defense from averaging 14PPG to giving up 73 points in the last 5+ quarters since Justin Smith got hurt shows how much an injury to a single key player can affect a defense. Prior to that point, San Francisco had played the entire season with 10 starters playing over 92% of the defensive snap count (DBs Dashon Goldson, Donte Whitner, Tarrell Brown and Carols Rogers; LBs Patrick Willis, Navorro Bowman, Aldon Smith and Ahmad Brooks; and DLs Justin Smith and Ray McDonald). Great players, but it's a heck lot easier for a defense to be "dominant" with that kind of continuity. The Pats have had only 2 players play only 90%+ of the defensive snap count this season - Jerod Mayo and Devin McCourty, and McCourty has had to flip flop positions all season.

I'm fairly confident that this defense at full strength can be quite good. I don't have much confidence in this defense when it's patched together with band aids and guys playing out of position.

Jones showed signs of finally re-gaining his early form. Cunningham will be back. The DL should be at full strength going into the playoffs barring injuries this week.

Spikes was out against Jacksonville, and that hurt. Hopefully he will be fully healthy for the playoffs. Hightower is rounding into form.

The secondary is the biggest question. We need Talib and Dennard healthy.

Let's see how things look after this week, and re-assess.

So let's try an exercise in reverse analysis:

- Since drafting Aldon Smith and acquiring FA Carlos Rogers in 2011 along with re-signing FS Dashon Goldson and the maturation of Navorro Bowman into an impact player, the 49ers' defense allowed an average of just over 14 PPG throughout the 2011 season and for the first 13 games of the 2012 season. As mentioned above, they had the good fortune to be able to have 10 of their 11 starters play over 92% of the defensive snap count for those 13 games this season. They held the most prolific offense in the NFL to 3 points for most of 3 quarters in game 14.

- Since Justin Smith injured his elbow against the Patriots, the 49ers have given up 73 points in slightly more than 5 quarters.

What has causes such a drastic change in a dominant defense? In an interesting piece, Bucky Brooks of NFL.com looks at some of the issues behind the "collapse" of the San Francisco defense:

San Francisco 49ers' defense falling apart without Justin Smith - NFL.com

Brooks' analysis focuses on 3 basic elements:

1. Offenses running the ball at Aldon Smith.
2. Easier ability for offenses to scheme against Aldon Smith in pass protection with Justin Smith setting picks for him against opposing guards.
3. With the pass rush neutralized, it has been much easier to attack the 49ers secondary and straightforward man coverage schemes.

What's interesting about this analysis is that it shows the kind of "domino" effect that we saw with the Aqib Talib trade, but in reverse: take away one key player, and the entire nature of the defense changes dramatically.

Looking at the Pats' defense - assuming that Talib and Dennard stay at CB and McCourty at FS for the long term - it would seem to me that if the Pats had succeeded in getting a guy like Red Bryant (or even Jonathan Fanene, had he been able to play as expected) who had been able to play outside or inside and generate a combination of effective run stopping and outside and inside pressure, that it would have had a similar impact on the overall effectiveness of the defense. Imagine what a Calais Campbell or a Henry Melton (who came out as a defensive end) could do. Even a rookie like Ziggy Ansah, Sam Montgomery or Sheldon Richardson could potentially have a significant impact.

For people that think are skeptical that this defense might only be 1-2 players away from being dominant, it's interesting how the loss of Justin Smith - just 1 player - has transformed the 49ers defense from giving up 14 PPG over the previous 29 games to averaging 38 PPG over its last 2 games.

 

[patfanken]

The SF example is clear. If you can have all your defensive starters able to play 92% of the available snaps, your defense will thrive. The Pats (and 90% of the rest of the league) haven't come close to that standard. The Niners have been extraordinarily lucky with injuries this season....so far.

So why are people surprised the Pats defense didn't look great against the Jags, when they lost 3 starters and and had 2 more forced to switch positions (McCourty and Ninko)l. Compare that to the Niner D which literally collapsed when they lost just ONE guy.

The Pats are a beat up team right now and I have no idea how ready they'll be for the playoffs. I'm a lot more concerned about the health of this team than any individual potential opponent. I think we have been pretty lucky in not losing many people to the IR this season (just Fletcher, Dowling, and Pryor, IIRC), but we've been very unlucky with so many key guys missing games or being limited by injuries and playing anyway. And what people sometimes fail to understand is how not being able to full practice effects the execution on game days. Because the Pats are a team that coaches so well, they get better as the season goes on, and its very hard to continue to improve when you can't practice fully and effectively because so many players are "limited".

If I had to point out one thing that proves how much the Pats defense has improved over last season's talent, it would be this. The biggest boost to the Pats defense last season was the return of Patrick Chung. By the time the playoffs rolled around, there could be an argument made that Chung was the best overall DB the Pats had last year. Just one year later Chung is the #3 Safety and wouldn't be considered to be in the top 4. That shows you just how far the Pats secondary has come.

BTW- it also points how amazing it was the Pats managed to get to the Superbowl with the defensive talent they had on the field.