The JimmyG pick(s)

[manxman2601]

Because as always there will be someone in the top 8 that is immensely in love with Garrett who didn't think there was any realistic chance to get him. And then the same will happen with the traded top 8 pick and another player.

Will it be the almost criminal haul that the Rams got for RG3 ? No, of course not. But there is a lot of space between a robbery like that and getting "cents on the dollar" like you suggest. It just requires careful navigating and bargaining.

There is no one else I'd trust more to exploit a top 3 pick into future assets than Bill Belichick.

I'm not saying it's impossible, just harder when there aren't any decent QBs worth trading up for. And I was thinking more too three than no 1 overall. Garrett might be worth trading up for to no 1. I'm less convinced teams will pay a kings ransom for the other guys up there. All I'm saying is that I don't think it's a given we'll find a partner willing to give up lots to get into the top 3 and I caution against assuming a trade down is a lock.

 

[Wilfork#75]

Why easier? The cost is more punitive for the trading up team as we've seen in recent years. Unless you're prepared to trade for cents on the dollar. Is Trent Richardson the only top 3 non-QB traded up for in the last few years? Genuine question. I have a lousy memory and am at work so don't have time to research it.

Miami traded up to #3 for Dion Jordan in 2013, although that was at a discount.

The kind of value I would look for from a trade back out of the top 3 would be at least what Buffalo gave up for Sammy Watkins in 2014. They gave up a future 1st and 4th to move up from #9 to #4.

I think the absolute perfect scenario would be to trade Jimmy G to SF for #2 overall. Not only because it's a great return for him, but because of the control we would have over the QB market. If Cleveland misses out on Jimmy there will be growing pressure to take a QB #1 overall. It seems like Myles Garrett is the obvious #1 pick, but as the QB options start to dwindle they may get desperate. Even in a weak QB class I don't think any of the top options make it to #12.

If Cleveland were to panic and take a QB #1 (Trubisky?) teams will be lining up to trade for Myles Garrett. If the Browns hold their nerve and take Garrett, I think there will be some competition for the top QB's. If any team falls in love with one of these QB's they will probably feel they need to jump ahead of Chicago at #3, making the #2 from SF very valuable. Maybe even Chicago is worried someone will jump them and are willing to move up 1 spot for their guy.

Even in the worst case scenario where none of the QBs rise to the top, I think we can still get good value from a few small trades down. Just as an example, I can see Jacksonville trading up from #4 to #2 to jump Chicago for Jonathan Allen. Then I could see Cincinnati trying to trade up from #9 to #4 to jump Tennessee for their choice of top safety. It might not result in an RG3 type haul, but I think in a strong draft it is still a much better option than using all of that potential value on a single player.

 

[luuked]

I'm not saying it's impossible, just harder when there aren't any decent QBs worth trading up for. And I was thinking more too three than no 1 overall. Garrett might be worth trading up for to no 1. I'm less convinced teams will pay a kings ransom for the other guys up there. All I'm saying is that I don't think it's a given we'll find a partner willing to give up lots to get into the top 3 and I caution against assuming a trade down is a lock.

Personally, I just don't see why you'd put all your eggs into that one basket if you can even when selling cheap get a fine number of picks out of it. QB is the only position where I feel you have to take that risk.

 

[manxman2601]

Personally, I just don't see why you'd put all your eggs into that one basket if you can even when selling cheap get a fine number of picks out of it. QB is the only position where I feel you have to take that risk.

I'm not against a trade down, just saying it's not a given. In fact, a trade down would be preferential. I'd rather grab a pick or two and still get one of Thomas, Adams, Lattimore or even Hooker, Allen or Howard. But you need a partner to dance.

 

[manxman2601]

Miami traded up to #3 for Dion Jordan in 2013, although that was at a discount.

The kind of value I would look for from a trade back out of the top 3 would be at least what Buffalo gave up for Sammy Watkins in 2014. They gave up a future 1st and 4th to move up from #9 to #4.

I think the absolute perfect scenario would be to trade Jimmy G to SF for #2 overall. Not only because it's a great return for him, but because of the control we would have over the QB market. If Cleveland misses out on Jimmy there will be growing pressure to take a QB #1 overall. It seems like Myles Garrett is the obvious #1 pick, but as the QB options start to dwindle they may get desperate. Even in a weak QB class I don't think any of the top options make it to #12.

If Cleveland were to panic and take a QB #1 (Trubisky?) teams will be lining up to trade for Myles Garrett. If the Browns hold their nerve and take Garrett, I think there will be some competition for the top QB's. If any team falls in love with one of these QB's they will probably feel they need to jump ahead of Chicago at #3, making the #2 from SF very valuable. Maybe even Chicago is worried someone will jump them and are willing to move up 1 spot for their guy.

Even in the worst case scenario where none of the QBs rise to the top, I think we can still get good value from a few small trades down. Just as an example, I can see Jacksonville trading up from #4 to #2 to jump Chicago for Jonathan Allen. Then I could see Cincinnati trying to trade up from #9 to #4 to jump Tennessee for their choice of top safety. It might not result in an RG3 type haul, but I think in a strong draft it is still a much better option than using all of that potential value on a single player.

I think you are valuing the QBs more than I think they will get valued. Trubisky might draw some interest but I'm not convinced anyone will want to trade up for him. I think teams won't trade up for Kizer or Watson.

Let's play it out.

Option 1

• We trade JG to 49ers for their no 2.
• Cleveland takes Garrett
• Bears know we won't take Trubisky and I don't see the Jets trading with us.
• Bears are going to take Trubisky so Allen will be there at 4 for Jax.
• The Titans GM is from the BB school so won't give up a lot to trade up presumably.
• Chargers have their pick of safeties probably.
• I don't think safety is Cincinnati's biggest need. I think they'll take Corey Davis or Mike Williams or Foster if he's still on the board.

Option 2

• Somehow we get the no 1 overall. For the record, If we're trading with Cle, I'd rather 12 and more (second rounder or 2018 first).
• We're at 1. Yes a team might fall in love with Garrett so there's always a possibility. But if they don't absolutely love him, is there a need to give up a bunch if your need is pass rusher with such a strong pass rusher class?
• Maybe the Bears really love Trubisky and want him ahead of the 49ers.
• So you're relying on a team falling in love with Garrett or the Bears falling in love with, and willing to trade a bunch for a QB with one years experience.

Option 3

• We trade with the Bears.
• Let's assume the 49ers don't take Trubisky. There are probably four teams in need of a QB: Jets, Bills, Cle, NO. Jets are next in line so don't need to trade up. We don't know what's happening with Tyrod. Would the Saints give up picks for Trubisky to be backup for a year or two? Which leaves Cleveland.
• Trade chart difference between 12 and 3 is effectively their two second rounders. If they wanted a QB that much, I'd imagine they'd probably think they should have offered that for Jimmy G anyway and I think BB would have preferred 12, 33, 52 than one of the top 3 picks.
• On the other hand, it's certainly possible a team might really like someone enough to trade up to 3 where it's cheaper. The differnce between 4 and 2 is 800 points. Those same 800 points at 3 means someone trading up from 8. So there's certainly greater scope.

Your options are possible but, playing devil's advocate as I am, so are mine. I'm not saying it won't happen or that I wouldn't want a trade to happen. But I do think there is a very real possibility that the opportunity to trade down might not necessarily be there and that we shouldn't necessarily assume that it will be. That's part of the reason why I lean towards wanting, ideally, 12 plus the two Cleveland 2nd rounders or 12 and a 2018 first.

 

[long distance]

I'm not saying it's impossible, just harder when there aren't any decent QBs worth trading up for. And I was thinking more too three than no 1 overall. Garrett might be worth trading up for to no 1. I'm less convinced teams will pay a kings ransom for the other guys up there. All I'm saying is that I don't think it's a given we'll find a partner willing to give up lots to get into the top 3 and I caution against assuming a trade down is a lock.

That's why it might be better to go immediately for #12 + 2018 1st with Browns

EDIT: I see this comment after all was not necessary..

 

[Snooky97]

Right, lets get this thread going again.. I want browns #12 pick, a second round pick, and a conditional First or second next year..

We can dream right..

 

[manxman2601]

Strong links between the Browns and Trubisky at 1 today. John Lynch really talked up Kizer. I'm starting to think Jimmy G won't get traded as Schefter reported. Certainly won't be mocking on that basis until/if it happens.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Strong links between the Browns and Trubisky at 1 today. John Lynch really talked up Kizer. I'm starting to think Jimmy G won't get traded as Schefter reported. Certainly won't be mocking on that basis until/if it happens.

Here's the story on Trubisky and the Browns:

Browns strongly considering Mitch Trubisky No. 1 overall, sources say

 

[Sfpat]

Strong links between the Browns and Trubisky at 1 today. John Lynch really talked up Kizer. I'm starting to think Jimmy G won't get traded as Schefter reported. Certainly won't be mocking on that basis until/if it happens.

Posturing on all sides. Will be fun to follow between now and the draft (or when/if JG is traded)

 

[Sfpat]

Here's the story on Trubisky and the Browns:

Browns strongly considering Mitch Trubisky No. 1 overall, sources say

It's why the Browns are the Browns. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[manxman2601]

Hold your horses.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Hold your horses.

This shouldn't be a surprise.

Pats come out against trading JimmyG.

Days later, Brown's thinking about drafting Trubisky at 1.
Bears and 49ers thinking about drafter Kizer?

On cue, more leaks about how a deal could still get done.

It will be posturing until it is not.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Hold your horses.

On the other hand, who's been wrong more than Charley Casserly since he left the Redskins? His percentage is like a meteorologist.

 

[manxman2601]

On the other hand, who's been wrong more than Charley Casserly since he left the Redskins? His percentage is like a meteorologist.

Do you think he's wrong here? I sure don't.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Do you think he's wrong here? I sure don't.

No, I don't either. Just having fun since that was a direct quote from Bill Belichick a few years back.

 

[manxman2601]

Can't have him and Garrett. Could have JG and Garrett though. Come on Browns be sensible. Don't hang on to draft picks that are worthless to a team without a QB.

 

[luuked]

Via Loyko:



That is the definition of an idiot move. "Lets get the worse player because we have to give up fewer draft resources to get him." For Bears fans sake I hope that this is just a smoke screen.

 

[manxman2601]

Via Loyko:



That is the definition of idiot move. "Lets get the worse player because we have to give up fewer draft resources to get him." For Bears fans sake I hope that this is just a smoke screen.

Scam for Sam (Darnold).

 

[yopats]

Scam for Sam (Darnold).

Poor John Fox.. he will be fired before he gets his QB