The 1st pick in the draft is ONE pick better than the SB winner.

[mgteich]

Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not.

After the first pick, the worst team picks one AFTER the Super Bowl winner throughout the draft (ignoring trades and comp picks). Let's say we are the 1st pick and PHI is pick 32.
============
1. NE gets the first pick.
2. PHI gets 32, NE get 33.
3. PHI gets 65, NE gets 66
4. PHI gets 97, NE gets 98 (actually lower because of comp picks.
4. PHI gets last in the 4th, patriots get first in the 5th (the next pick)
and so on.
===============
BOTTOM LINE
After the results of the first pick, we have slightly less draft resources than the SB winner.

We are kidding ourselves if we think that we make a meaningful step toward the SB by drafting a WR or OT at 4 or 5. There is only one FAST step toward being a good team: getting a top QB. To me, FAST to me means 2-3 years. .

 

[Wozzy]

Doesn’t matter whether they get the first pick or the 15th again… the only desperate need on this team is a QB.

 

[festy1986]

They will draft a QB. Probably two of them.

Until you get the QB, nothing else matters.

 

[upstater1]

Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not.

After the first pick, the worst team picks one AFTER the Super Bowl winner throughout the draft (ignoring trades and comp picks). Let's say we are the 1st pick and PHI is pick 32.
============
1. NE gets the first pick.
2. PHI gets 32, NE get 33.
3. PHI gets 65, NE gets 66
4. PHI gets 97, NE gets 98 (actually lower because of comp picks.
4. PHI gets last in the 4th, patriots get first in the 5th (the next pick)
and so on.
===============
BOTTOM LINE
After the results of the first pick, we have slightly less draft resources than the SB winner.

We are kidding ourselves if we think that we make a meaningful step toward the SB by drafting a WR or OT at 4 or 5. There is only one FAST step toward being a good team: getting a top QB. To me, FAST to me means 2-3 years. .

I agree that the draft isn't a total makeover. Still, grabbing 2 of the best 35 players is much better than grabbing one of them.

I'm also of the belief that there are only 20 top players in each draft and that everyone from 20-50 is a second rounder.

So grabbing a top guy means they are franchise cornerstones that you have to hit on. A lot of teams don't. And yet though teams like the Jets and Bills have constantly missed that high, you can still build a team by making up for it in later rounds.

The Patriots draft history is excellent if you look at their picks in the upper part of the first. The struggles have come 22-32.

 

[archstanton543]

Shouldn't the thread title be "The 2nd Pick"?

===============
BOTTOM LINE

This thread has a confusing title.

 

[denverpatsfan]

Eagles drafted the defensive rookie of the year after making the super bowl. Bill is drafting Boney T and Harry. Time for a new GM.

 

[sb1]

Doesn’t matter whether they get the first pick or the 15th again… the only desperate need on this team is a QB.

QB's mean everything to the offense and their team doesn't matter at all. That's why it was all Brady.

 

[FCB02062]

wow, this is mental gymnastics to the fullest on the draft - would you rather a snake draft? Yes, the team needs a qb...But I would have no qualms, say Zappe starts the rest of the year and goes 3-3 or 4-2, going with Zappe next year and dedicating every ****ing pick to offense - receiver, tight end, qb, line and no running backs. drafting a qb high is not a fool proof recipe for success.

 

[XLIX]

Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not.

After the first pick, the worst team picks one AFTER the Super Bowl winner throughout the draft (ignoring trades and comp picks). Let's say we are the 1st pick and PHI is pick 32.
============
1. NE gets the first pick.
2. PHI gets 32, NE get 33.
3. PHI gets 65, NE gets 66
4. PHI gets 97, NE gets 98 (actually lower because of comp picks.
4. PHI gets last in the 4th, patriots get first in the 5th (the next pick)
and so on.
===============
BOTTOM LINE
After the results of the first pick, we have slightly less draft resources than the SB winner.

This is horrible logic. If you go by that NFL draft score chart, the #1 team has something like 4,000 total points and the #32 team has something like 1,100 total points. You are literally saying "take away 3,000 points from the #1 team, and they're practically the same!!"

Fact is that in every round, the #1 pick is 31 spots ahead of the Super Bowl winner (ignoring trades). That is a HUGE difference.

 

[Twentytothree]

Yes, a top 5 pick is important. Folks seem to think that we have advantages throughout the draft, We do not.

After the first pick, the worst team picks one AFTER the Super Bowl winner throughout the draft (ignoring trades and comp picks). Let's say we are the 1st pick and PHI is pick 32....

Some pretty, uhm, interesting math there. Pick 1 is worth as much as picks 28, 29, 30, 31 and 32 combined, so with a bit of effort (starting Malik?) the Pats can have multiple times the capital at the sharp end of the draft compared to the SB winner.
(edit: what XLIX said...)

 

[Wozzy]

QB's mean everything to the offense and their team doesn't matter at all. That's why it was all Brady.

So the decade in between 2005-2013 it was Brady’s fault they didn’t win a ring?

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

That top 5 pick is still incredibly important.

Goes without saying man. Why try to reinvent the wheel?

Game changing players go early. The Bengals rebuild and their offense was centered around Burrow. Look at how their offense plays without him.

Hitting on the wrong guy can also devastate a franchise.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Doesn’t matter whether they get the first pick or the 15th again… the only desperate need on this team is a QB.

Oh that's weird. You always used to say that it's a team game and a QB doesn't magically win a game by himself.

What changed with you Wozzy?

 

[Wozzy]

That top 5 pick is still incredibly important.

Goes without saying man. Why try to reinvent the wheel?

Game changing players go early. The Bengals rebuild and their offense was centered around Burrow. Look at how their offense plays without him.

Hitting on the wrong guy can also devastate a franchise.

While I agree in premise, Brock Purdy is a great example of missing on a guy but getting it right eventually.

The 49ers didn’t just miss, they traded the house to get up in the top three and missed. Look at them now.

 

[Wozzy]

Oh that's weird. You always used to say that it's a team game and a QB doesn't magically win a game by himself.

What changed with you Wozzy?

They don’t… ask Justin Herbert or Matt Stafford.

 

[sb1]

So the decade in between 2005-2013 it was Brady’s fault they didn’t win a ring?

Can't win every year.

It was all Brady. Could have been a totally different team and he still would have won all those rings. It's all the QB, team doesn't matter at all.

 

[Wozzy]

Archstanton laughs at my every post, he laughed at me earlier in the season when I said “Mac sucked” and people were still arguing he was good and the team was bad.

Now Mac is a quivering jellyfish, is he agreeing when he laughs or disagreeing, he doesn’t say anything, he just laughs… odd?

 

[Wozzy]

Can't win every year.

So it was Brady’s fault. Good to know.

 

[sb1]

So it was Brady’s fault. Good to know.

Oh noes Brady didn't win 8 rings instead of 7 he's like the worst ever!1!1

Look at Bill, defensive genius but once Brady left he became only coach in NFL history to oversee his defense in the playoffs get a perfect game rung up on them. Drives: TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD. Funny how that happened when Brady left. It was all Brady. It always is the QB, his team doesn't matter.

 

[Wozzy]

Oh noes Brady didn't win 8 rings instead of 7 he's like the worst ever!1!1