The JimmyG pick(s)

[I.M. Fletcher]

You had to know this thread was coming....

So, last year this board was a bit of a snooze fest, as most of us were just ticked at the league for snatching away something we can sometimes love as much as the games themselves. 1st round draft picks are only part of the draft, but it's the part that provides the most hope, and therefore the most enjoyment. The league punished the Pats, but the fan enjoyment really got snuffed out by their actions.

But with many things, there is light on the other side of the tunnel. As we saw last night, the thought of JimmyG getting moved for a Brinks truck worth of assets is moving from fantasy to possibility. I say we spend the year celebrating it, and enjoying the heck out of it, since we basically avoided the draft all last year.

Usually we are talking about guys falling to 32nd, or maybe taking a chance on a top talent who got injured. Why not talk about the wild and insane idea of what Bill would do with a top 5 pick? Multiple picks?

I want to start reading scouting reports on Leonard Fournette and Myles Garret, not just some guy Belichick will grab at the end of the round and turn in to a perennial pro bowler.

So there you have it. Dream big. Talk about the best prospects. Float your favourite trade ideas. Enjoy the heck out of this season, cause it's been 8 years since we have been in the top half of the draft, and 16 since we've been in the top 5.

Here is my first crack at it

Pats trade
JimmyG

Browns trade
Joe Thomas
Philadelphia 1st
Pats select Jamal Adams

Enjoy the ride, cause there is nothing like debating what to do with a winning lottery ticket.

 

[BobDigital]

Jimmy G was pick #62.

We lost pick #29 and are losing pick #132 give or take

Though I am not a big believer in the draft value chart if you go by that it if the Pats were to trade Jimmy G to get all this value back they would need pick #29, 62 and 132 which if all traded up would be (640+284+40= 964 which means if you got the 16th overall pick(1000) you would get full value back plus some.

If this keeps up that 16th pick should be easy to get and then some.

So if the Pats win all 4 games (3 more to go) and are able to get a 16th or higher pick for Jimmy then then this whole deflate game thing has cost the Pats nothing and perhaps gained us quite a lot as Jimmy would never have a chance to have the kind of value if not for this.

Personally though IDK if I want to trade Jimmy. Maybe Brady can play 5 more years and then you worry about it then but the idea of Jimmy being on this team and having till Brady is getting closer to 41 than 40 to make that decision is not a bad thing.

So if a team wants Jimmy I am open to offers but it would have to be an amazing offer cause frankly I don't want to trade him.

So either I want a top 2 pick.
2 top 10 picks
3 picks anywhere in the first round

Those are the things I move Jimmy for. If a team doesn't want to pay it I am perfectly happy to hang on to him. I would not trade Jimmy for a player though likely and If i did I do it for a young proven player with 2+ years left on a cheap rookie contract + a high draft pick.

 

[reflexblue]

Jimmy G was pick #62.

We lost pick #29 and are losing pick #132 give or take

Though I am not a big believer in the draft value chart if you go by that it if the Pats were to trade Jimmy G to get all this value back they would need pick #29, 62 and 132 which if all traded up would be (640+284+40= 964 which means if you got the 16th overall pick(1000) you would get full value back plus some.

If this keeps up that 16th pick should be easy to get and then some.

So if the Pats win all 4 games (3 more to go) and are able to get a 16th or higher pick for Jimmy then then this whole deflate game thing has cost the Pats nothing and perhaps gained us quite a lot as Jimmy would never have a chance to have the kind of value if not for this.

If jimmy g can keep this up for four games the wins the states, than i could see boat load of picks. This years first and next years first for example. There are oganazations that aren't very well run that would over pay for a proven QB. Look what washington gave up for RG111.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

It's gonna be glorious.

The list of teams that I could see entertaining the idea of trading for JimmyG looks something like this.

Browns- two 1sts and multiple additional picks over the next two drafts.
Currently zero long term answers on the roster with RG3 going down. They have a great QB coach in Hue Jackson, so he may want someone polished like Jimmy, or may want to pick his own guy.
San Fran: all its current picks.
Zero long term answers on the roster with gabbert and Kaep dying a slow death. They have Chip Kelly who has shown a willingness to deal for a qb he likes. Hasn't focused much attention in the pros on mobile qbs, but Jimmy would provide a bit of both.

Chicago: hold all their own picks. cutler is getting up there and has been the same qb for years. They will finally cut bait this summer.
John fox has usually had guys who have bootleg potential and good accuracy. Add in that he got a view of him in training camp only helps.

Chiefs: hold all their own picks
Just Alex smith for today and the future, but time is running out on this core. Jimmy fits the andy reid qb mold to a Tee, with his quick decision and accuracy, plus his ability to escape. If Alex smith fails once again, they have to try to find a true replacement. Reid and Belichick have a long relationship and a lot of trust in making deals, so this is my dark horse.

Lions: own all their own picks. Matthew stafford is going to start running out of rope soon if he doesn't get this team moving in the right direction. I have my money on this being where McDaniels lands, and I can't imagine him wanting stafford as his guy, given his inaccuracy and improvising. They have strong Pats ties in the front office, so again trust won't be an issue.

Cards: hold all their own picks. We know how much pressure on this team after last night, so we know that Palmer has a lot of pressure on him. At the same time, they have a very young core that is worth building around with a young qb for the future. If Palmer doesn't get it going this year, I would expect them to reach out before their window closes around him.

Saints: hold all their own picks.
a longer shot with Brees just getting extended, but it's just one more year. Peyton obviously saw him in training camp as well, has a good relationship with us, and would be intimately aware of Jimmy from eastern Illinois connection.

Jets. They hold all their picks.
The longest shot given the relationship, so I question even listing them. On the flip side, Jimmy is what they have needed since testaverde left. He's better than fitzy, younger and can grow with the younger core they have. Otherwise, this older core will keep sinking them, which would be plenty fine for me

Best case scenario, the Browns fall in love with him and we can borrow from their draft pick treasure chest.

Worst case scenario, teams don't want to deal with the pats because they are afraid of getting burned leaving a team like the Chiefs or cards with a lower pick as the only offer.

Most realistic, the chips will fall around where mcdaniels ends up, and they will work around him landing well. If it's Detroit, that would mean working out a trade with Jimmy.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

If we had a chance to get Garrett, I don't see how we could pass that up. But he's probably going top 3, barring injury. He's likely the best pass rusher to come out since Demarcus Ware or Julius Peppers. It's not happening, though I suppose I can dream.

I'm heavily scouting tackles next year, but last night made me rethink my strategy. Maybe we don't need a new RT and a new swing tackle. Maybe Fleming and Cannon are serviceable after all. Vollmer's health and age concerns me, but I also don't think we can replace him easily. He's the best RT in the league when healthy.

I'd love to win the Super Bowl and then load up on talent in the draft. What an offseason that would be!

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Personally though IDK if I want to trade Jimmy. Maybe Brady can play 5 more years and then you worry about it then but the idea of Jimmy being on this team and having till Brady is getting closer to 41 than 40 to make that decision is not a bad thing.

So if a team wants Jimmy I am open to offers but it would have to be an amazing offer cause frankly I don't want to trade him.

So either I want a top 2 pick.
2 top 10 picks
3 picks anywhere in the first round

Those are the things I move Jimmy for. If a team doesn't want to pay it I am perfectly happy to hang on to him. I would not trade Jimmy for a player though likely and If i did I do it for a young proven player with 2+ years left on a cheap rookie contract + a high draft pick.

First of all, I will preface this by stating that I hope we're not jinxing everything and speaking too soon! That said, this is the Jimmy G that I saw in the 2014 and 2015 preseasons; I wonder if (like Cassel in 2008 preseason), they specifically were putting Garoppolo in situations he wasn't comfortable in during this year's preseason games because he certainly didn't shine like those other years. Reports from training camp prior to the preseason games themselves were good, so that gives me hope on that front. Add in the fact that he was able to recover from a critical 2nd quarter fumble yesterday to not only play well the rest of the way, but impressively lead a game-winning come from behind 4th quarter drive, and I'm cautiously optimistic.

That said..... Brady's suspension was already reinstated by the time the 2016 draft rolled around. The team drafted Jacoby Brissett knowing it was likely (although not 100% set in stone yet) that Jimmy would be starting the first 4 games.

The question: given those facts, why did they draft Brissett with a 3rd round pick? Brian Hoyer was still a free agent at that point (eventually signed a 1-year, $2M contract with the Bears - not chump change, but not horrible). Matt Cassel and Ryan Mallet could have been acquired for a song (6th or 7th round pick). I'm sure there were other veteran free agents they would have been comfortable signing for 1 year with a full training camp and preseason under the Pats' system. Garoppolo is still under contract for another season after this one; Jimmy himself wasn't drafted until prior to Mallet's 4th season.

I think the team is pretty much intending on moving on from Jimmy G next year regardless of how well he plays. They drafted Brissett because they were planning on moving on from Jimmy G and thought Brissett could be the next Brady backup and possible successor. They like him so much that he's already the #2 right now with no veteran competition in camp at all, and he looked very promising in the preseason games. I cannot possibly imagine a circumstance by which Garoppolo is on this team next year - basically it would take a major injury/regression from Brissett. They're not trading Brady this offseason, his dead cap money would be too large. It makes no sense to hold on to Garoppolo absent that, in my opinion.

So depending on how the next 3 games go, it could be a 6th round pick, or it could be a top 5 pick+. But it'll be something.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

My particular guess -- most likely landing spot is wherever Josh McDaniels winds up next year as HC. Possibly Detroit with Bob Quinn as GM, and them working out a Matt Stafford trade in the process (doesn't seem to fit McDaniels' style, similar to what happened with Cutler). My #2 guess would be San Francisco if Chip Kelly is still there; Jimmy seems like he can fit Kelly's style, and you know Kelly and Belichick have a great relationship. Depends on what the actual pick is; if the 49ers have the #1 overall pick they'd probably just use it on Kizer as he seems to be a better fit than Jimmy. Maybe Watson too. If their pick is outside of those two guys, I could see them trading for Jimmy G.

If the Pats do get a high pick? Well..... we know how much Belichick loves his linebackers. Manx mentioned Reuben Foster the other day. That seems like a possible choice if his character checks out (apparently he was present at a triple-homicide this spring; he wasn't involved, but I'm sure the Patriots are especially leery of this type of thing nowadays).

 

[Hammer of Thor]

One thing to temper our expectations a bit. All of the other QBs who have been traded recently still had the shine of being a high draft pick. RGIII was a #2 overall. Sam Bradford was #1 overall. They haven't played that way (or RGIII hasn't since his rookie year), but it takes a long time for that promise to come off.

Whereas Garoppolo was #62 overall. The Patriots traded Cassel for #34 a few years back (hands tied due to salary cap concerns), but the Chiefs only got 2 decent years out of him before falling apart and becoming a backup. I think there is going to be a lot of concern that Garoppolo is going to be considered Belichick magic, and he won't pull down nearly as much as someone like Bradford who really hasn't been a good NFL player (hasn't been bad, just hasn't been good).

If Garoppolo continues to play well, I think a single 1st will be it. In a way, that's why we need McDaniels to get a HC job somewhere next year. It gives us a guaranteed market, and could potentially raise the price (as the Pats won't have the franchise cap constraints like they did with Cassel).

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

First of all, I will preface this by stating that I hope we're not jinxing everything and speaking too soon! That said, this is the Jimmy G that I saw in the 2014 and 2015 preseasons; I wonder if (like Cassel in 2008 preseason), they specifically were putting Garoppolo in situations he wasn't comfortable in during this year's preseason games because he certainly didn't shine like those other years. Reports from training camp prior to the preseason games themselves were good, so that gives me hope on that front. Add in the fact that he was able to recover from a critical 2nd quarter fumble yesterday to not only play well the rest of the way, but impressively lead a game-winning come from behind 4th quarter drive, and I'm cautiously optimistic.

That said..... Brady's suspension was already reinstated by the time the 2016 draft rolled around. The team drafted Jacoby Brissett knowing it was likely (although not 100% set in stone yet) that Jimmy would be starting the first 4 games.

The question: given those facts, why did they draft Brissett with a 3rd round pick? Brian Hoyer was still a free agent at that point (eventually signed a 1-year, $2M contract with the Bears - not chump change, but not horrible). Matt Cassel and Ryan Mallet could have been acquired for a song (6th or 7th round pick). I'm sure there were other veteran free agents they would have been comfortable signing for 1 year with a full training camp and preseason under the Pats' system. Garoppolo is still under contract for another season after this one; Jimmy himself wasn't drafted until prior to Mallet's 4th season.

I think the team is pretty much intending on moving on from Jimmy G next year regardless of how well he plays. They drafted Brissett because they were planning on moving on from Jimmy G and thought Brissett could be the next Brady backup and possible successor. They like him so much that he's already the #2 right now with no veteran competition in camp at all, and he looked very promising in the preseason games. I cannot possibly imagine a circumstance by which Garoppolo is on this team next year - basically it would take a major injury/regression from Brissett. They're not trading Brady this offseason, his dead cap money would be too large. It makes no sense to hold on to Garoppolo absent that, in my opinion.

So depending on how the next 3 games go, it could be a 6th round pick, or it could be a top 5 pick+. But it'll be something.

I agree on Jimmy getting the Cassel treatment in pre season. We saw the last two years Jimmy slinging it all around the field, but all of a sudden he's only hitting check downs? It didn't make any sense.

The Brissett pick might end up looking like a genius pick on a lot of levels. For starters, it eliminates any secondary conversations about having to find a guy in the draft to not only replace Brady, but now also Jimmy. If Brissett isn't on the roster, and hadn't shown his talent level already, a lot of pundits would be claiming that Jimmy is the only QB that the Pats have ever been able to draft. The team now has a built in foundation going forward, without having to turn whatever bounty they receiver into a new younger QB. Brissett also gets real weeks of prep this month and is a full year in to his development for next season when he will be asked to do more as a backup.

It really sets up an ideal for everyone involved next year. Pats get to stock up on assets. JimmyG gets a starters job somewhere. Pats fans know they have Brissett ready to go. Brady knows he is still the guy, but more aware that he is on some level replaceable. And the league will continue to fear the Pats monster, even after Brady retires.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

Add one more team to the pile.

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[BobDigital]

Add one more team to the pile.

This is a Washington football team insider

Looks like they are starting 0-1. Good start if this is the case.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm not quite as optimistic as the rest of you for a number of reasons:

1. He'll be in the last year of his contract next year which will affect his price.
2. I'm not sure he's showcased the type of skills the NFL covets. I'm thinking in particular of velocity and deep ability. I think he's good in those areas but I'm not convinced teams will covet him without showcasing those skills (which he won't in this offense).
3. There's potentially going to be a number of QBs available this year so there likely won't be much of a bidding war. Fitzpatrick, Cutler, Cousins, Kaepernick and Bradford (possibly). I'm not saying any of those are better but they are more experienced.
4. I do think there's a perception that the Pats offense is a system one.

I think @Hammer of Thor is right. The best chance is for Jimmy G to follow Josh McDaniels somewhere. The other possibility is someone losing a QB between now and The trade deadline on Nov 1st which would make Jimmy tradeable after week 4 is over.

It's not impossible, but if we did get a first for Jimmy and slapped a first found tag on Butler which another team decided to go for then we could (stressing the uncertainty of could) end up with three firsts. This board wouldn't be quite so dead then.

It must be horrible to be a Browns fan, but they're going to have some fun between the end of their season and draft day. Is it 12 or 13 picks they've got now?

 

[manxman2601]

However, embracing the spirit of the thread, put me down for:

Jabrill Peppers
Jonathan Allen
Reuben Foster
Mike McGlinchey
Christian McCaffrey

One (or two) would be fine, I'm not greedy

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

There is a lot of truth to that Manx, but there are a few things that do play in their favor.

1. a lot of the options that will be available this coming summer were available last summer. Kaep, Bradford, fitzy and cousins were all, in some capacity, available for trade or free agency. Bradford ended up being the only one that someone bit on, but teams usually don't grow more enamored with a player the longer he is available.

2. While other options have shown there level of talent, JimmyG is largely an unknown. That obviously can work either for or against his value, but I am guessing it will have a positive effect for most teams

3. Young teams looking for QBs won't be looking for a vet starter. You could make the case for a team like the Rams wanting to protect a younger starter for a year, but for the most part the options available will be looked at as stop-gaps. If jimmy gets dealt, it would be because a team is looking for a starter.

4. Recent history shows that starter caliber qbs do not hit the market. Osweiler will have a similar length resume, and ended up for the 4th highest guarantees among any QB in the league. Bradford was a very specific situation, but the price was the price. Teams will pay for starters because there are so few of them. Ryan Tannehill is making 19m a year right now as a bottom 10 starter in the league.

5. This ties back to Osweiler, but while JimmyG only has the one extra year, it's enough to be able to spread out the cap hit to open up more possibilities. That might seem like just be a housekeeping issue, but that extra year helps protest against severe cap escalation.

As an example, Brock and Tyrod signed similar deals (try got an extra year) but Brock's cap hit hits 20m in the second year, while Tyrods never goes above 17. Again, it's a smaller point, but smart teams want to give themselves enough room to operate around the QB, and it's always best to do that with years remaining.

So, as always, the market will dictate itself, but I will live inside the fantasy until it blows up in my face.

 

[manxman2601]

There is a lot of truth to that Manx, but there are a few things that do play in their favor.

1. a lot of the options that will be available this coming summer were available last summer. Kaep, Bradford, fitzy and cousins were all, in some capacity, available for trade or free agency. Bradford ended up being the only one that someone bit on, but teams usually don't grow more enamored with a player the longer he is available.

2. While other options have shown there level of talent, JimmyG is largely an unknown. That obviously can work either for or against his value, but I am guessing it will have a positive effect for most teams

3. Young teams looking for QBs won't be looking for a vet starter. You could make the case for a team like the Rams wanting to protect a younger starter for a year, but for the most part the options available will be looked at as stop-gaps. If jimmy gets dealt, it would be because a team is looking for a starter.

4. Recent history shows that starter caliber qbs do not hit the market. Osweiler will have a similar length resume, and ended up for the 4th highest guarantees among any QB in the league. Bradford was a very specific situation, but the price was the price. Teams will pay for starters because there are so few of them. Ryan Tannehill is making 19m a year right now as a bottom 10 starter in the league.

5. This ties back to Osweiler, but while JimmyG only has the one extra year, it's enough to be able to spread out the cap hit to open up more possibilities. That might seem like just be a housekeeping issue, but that extra year helps protest against severe cap escalation.

As an example, Brock and Tyrod signed similar deals (try got an extra year) but Brock's cap hit hits 20m in the second year, while Tyrods never goes above 17. Again, it's a smaller point, but smart teams want to give themselves enough room to operate around the QB, and it's always best to do that with years remaining.

So, as always, the market will dictate itself, but I will live inside the fantasy until it blows up in my face.

How Kizer, Kaaya and Watson fare will be important. Jimmy gives one year of low cost QB play, they give four. One other factor that's just occurred to me. If Dak does well in Dallas, does Romo end up on the market? I realise he's seriously injury prone right now but that didn't stop Bradford being traded.

Here's a question for everyone. If an NFC contender lost their QB to injury between week 4 and the trade deadline, would you be prepared to trade a Garropolo to them for a single first rounder (which would be a low one). I was thinking about Russell Wilson's injury at the weekend which inspired the question.

And would you trade him to Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh if the same thing happened?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

As of now I don't a QB or WR, for that matter with a 1st round grade. They will slip in but it's a very weak class.

I think some are crazy if you think we're getting 2 first etc. I'd be extremely happy with a top 40 pick. Definitely the year of Cb and RB, with Dline/Edge coming in next.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

How Kizer, Kaaya and Watson fare will be important. Jimmy gives one year of low cost QB play, they give four. One other factor that's just occurred to me. If Dak does well in Dallas, does Romo end up on the market? I realise he's seriously injury prone right now but that didn't stop Bradford being traded.

Here's a question for everyone. If an NFC contender lost their QB to injury between week 4 and the trade deadline, would you be prepared to trade a Garropolo to them for a single first rounder (which would be a low one). I was thinking about Russell Wilson's injury at the weekend which inspired the question.

And would you trade him to Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh if the same thing happened?

The qb class is important. I am hoping kaaya bombs out and kizer stays another year as sophomore.

As for trading him, I would be in favour for it if it was the nfc, but I don't think I would pull the trigger with an AFC rival. The chance of facing him in the playoffs does scare me a bit. One of the reason I am so enthusiastic about his value is that I think he can be a great starter in the league. Going to a team like Cincy that has had good but not great qb work worries me, since it could be the missing piece for them.

My preference would obviously be a rebuilding team first, and an nfc team second. Even the Chiefs would worry me a bit, cause they have the type of roster that fits jimmys skillset very well, and would make them dangerous.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

How Kizer, Kaaya and Watson fare will be important. Jimmy gives one year of low cost QB play, they give four. One other factor that's just occurred to me. If Dak does well in Dallas, does Romo end up on the market? I realise he's seriously injury prone right now but that didn't stop Bradford being traded.

Here's a question for everyone. If an NFC contender lost their QB to injury between week 4 and the trade deadline, would you be prepared to trade a Garropolo to them for a single first rounder (which would be a low one). I was thinking about Russell Wilson's injury at the weekend which inspired the question.

And would you trade him to Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh if the same thing happened?

I wouldn't be prepared to trade him mid-season. If he continues to do well, we know that he's a very capable backup for Brady in the event Brady gets injured, and could potentially keep our Super Bowl dreams alive. While Brissett looks good, he's still a rookie with just one training camp and preseason behind him. Next year Brissett may be in much better position to take over should an injury happen.

Of course, on the other hand, that same argument could have been used as reasons not to trade Ryan Mallet at cut-downs in 2014.....

 

[BobDigital]

All depends on the value if an offer comes after game 4. Too many people are in the mind set of "we have to trade him or we get nothing!" A 2 year insurance policy in case anything happens is pretty damn good and not nothing.

 

[BelichickFan]

Add one more team to the pile.

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I don't know a thing about this guy. The Redskins seem like the perfect fit, though :

- NFC, so we're not directly competing with them.

- Although JG only has one "cheap" year left, Cousins has none.

- Snyder has been waiting for a good QB forever, I doubt draft picks would stand in his way.

- Similar to the above, Snyder has gone the "trade up for the stud draft pick" route and that ended very badly.

- Redskins will be in draft pick limbo; likely not happy with their season but not high enough for the high ranked QB (if there are any).

I could see a nice deal of JG for Redskins #2 this year with a conditional pick ranging from first to third round in 2018 depending on success.