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The economic pinciple behind Belichick's drafting system

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Kasmir, Apr 29, 2011.

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  1. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    It's interesting that so many folks seemingly haven't figured out the economics of Belichick's draft system after so many years. While there's variation every year, there's a simple principle at work:

    If you "bank" a first round pick, you'll get an extra 2nd round pick as "interest" *every year*. Likewise, if you "bank" a 2nd round pick, you'll get an extra third round pick *every year*.

    He's *already* invested draft picks to get extra return *every year*. Fans and media types seem to have trouble understanding this simple economic system. Fans look at the two first round picks and ever year expect two first rounders when they should instead expect one first rounder and an extra *2nd*. The 2nd round pick similarly produces an extra 3rd every year.

    It's that simple in principle. Expect a a pair of 2's and 3's next year, not a pair of 1's and 2's. In practice, it's not that exact, because the "banked" pick has to regenerate itself via a trade, and future draft picks have uncertain value, and trading partners are inherently unreliable. Also, the consensus value equivalence tables are not that simple, but roughly work out to a one down round interest rate for the first two rounds.

    Belichick will only with great reluctance spend his banked picks. That's why he almost never will spend both picks in a round, but will rather trade one forward to get one down.

    But that's what he's trying to do: think of it as if the Patriots have a perpetual extra 2nd and 3rd rounder vs all the other teams not practicing this system. Fans are impatient, and mediia types can be superficial, but the Belichick system -- like everything else he does -- is very well thought out. and he patiently stats within his system. Everything about Belichick's football operations is under impressive quality control.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2011
  2. condon84

    condon84 In the Starting Line-Up

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    BB is great at trading draft picks for multiple later round picks or following year draft picks. We all know that. But does it really matter how many picks you can horde when the time you finally pick, you pick players who do not pan out? This year for example was a culmination of shrewd maneuvers by BB to set him up for a type of draft that we all though could reap us impact players, but look what happened. A developmental LT, two reaches at RBs, a QB with question marks all over the place, an oft-injured CB who'll be nothing more than depth. Meanwhile, the areas where we really need help, OLB and G, we failed to address.

    BB is a great wheeler and dealer, but his draft picks have been hit-or-miss.
     
  3. WhiZa

    WhiZa Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    it's true we are spoiled with picks and while people complain about getting 2 RBs it's certainly better then 1 RB like most teams. Is anyone talking about the economics of what it took to get the extra picks? No, it's all about who is drafted there and BB has proven to make something of these overdrafted players
     
  4. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well everyone's draft sucks if I get to analyze it by saying they are all not going to be any good.
    We drafted a guy who could be a probowl caliber player at one of the most important positions on the field for 10 years in round 1.
    We drafted a DB at 33, after being 30th in pass D. Thats a bad idea?
    We added 2 RBs since we are losing 3 off of last years team.

    It is very likely that none of the OLBs were players BB felt would really fit his system effectively enough to help. With all other holes filled, why wouldn't OLB be a FA move?
    We have both starting Gs back. It's not unlikely that one of our 3 OTs could be playing G this year.
    We were 14-2. We added signigicantly above average players in Warren, Stroud and Bodden to what we had last year. We are loaded with youth and depth on defense.
    Where are all of these holes? OLB.
    What OLB was out there that you are sure would have helped this team this year if we drafted him?
     
  5. condon84

    condon84 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Our pass defense was 30th because we couldn't get near the QB. Not because our DBs are awful. McCourty is a good one, Arrington, after a rough start became decent. It's not like our DBs can't cover. It's just they can't cover for 7 seconds. That's mission impossible. What have we done to address the lack of pass rush?

    BTW, our OL was considered the best or one of the best in football last year. Neal retired, so did we get a replacement for him? Mankins is franchized but say we sign him and Light, we have Light, Mankins, Koppen, Connolly, Vollmer as our OL. That's still pretty good. It's not like I have anything against Soder, but if we view VOllmer as our LT of the future, couldn't we get a RT at a later round who we can develop? Wouldn't getting a G be a more immediate concern if we were to go OL.

    Then we go get Dowling, who will be burried behing McCourty, Bodden, Arrington, and Butler. This guy has great straight line speed but lack quickness which suggest he would be usesless in the slot against quicker WRs. So where does that put McCourty and Bodden? Did we give up on Butler as well?

    Then we drafted Vereen, who we could have gotten in the 3rd round. Stevan might have gone undrafted. And Mallett is a luxury pick.
     
  6. goz421

    goz421 Practice Squad Player

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    He plays for depth and for players he can pay. His genius is he is an economic major. One offensive lineman out one 6"8" top rated potential beast in.


    They were 14-2 last year. Every year the best a coach can do is give his team a chance to win. He does that. After that it's a crap shoot . Luck takes over.


    He gambles on several players. Others gamble on a few. He is hedging his bets. And leveraging with his future.

    No one understands his system. Think, were are the Cowboys, forty niners now.


    Consistency
     
  7. goz421

    goz421 Practice Squad Player

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    What other teams draft picks aren't hit or miss?

    The thing is we got several of them. Hedging his bets.
     
  8. Triumph

    Triumph Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    LOLZ

    I guarantee that Butler is gone. He sucks.
     
  9. RayClay

    RayClay Pro Bowl Player

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    I wouldn't go quite that far (OP). He always has plenty of picks and has the #1s if he needs them. It's an inexact science. Having a lot of choices is almost as good as having very top picks, except when you see a great player, great fit and you want to pull the trigger. Pretty sure he felt that way with Seymour as he planned to transition to a 3-4.

    It's a lottery ticket for most players, I guess. Look at Mayo and McCourty, he still traded down there.
     
  10. skinnydog

    skinnydog On the Game Day Roster

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    There is nothing more fundamental to defensive success in todays NFL than a good pass rush.
     
  11. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Your confusing Butler with Wilhite..... But Butler has to upgrade his play this year.
     
  12. condon84

    condon84 In the Starting Line-Up

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    They are all hit or miss. But if we're going to roll the dice, shouldn't it be rolled on positions where we are weakest or vulnerable due to lack of depth like OLB or G?
     
  13. Phokus

    Phokus Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    You're forgetting the other part of Belichick's drafting, in terms of economics. Since Belichick has the best job security in the NFL, he doesn't need to draft big to keep his job. Other coaches don't have that security, so they are more willing to part with their future draft picks to 'win now', thus they would tend to hyperdiscount and give up more future value than they would normally if they had that future job security.
     
  14. tobias funke

    tobias funke Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Thank god for a somewhat sane thread in this sea of goddamn dumb.

    Belichick's 2010 draft was literally a work of art. While other teams are mortgaging their entire drafts for one WR, the Patriots managed to come up with 4 rookie starters, none chosen higher than late in the first. Meanwhile, 2009 "busts" are just starting to show real value to the team.

    Fast forward one year and we're supposed to believe he's an idiot because he didn't draft a rookie to fit a particular need-as-determined-by-the-media-slash-fanbase?

    The Colts say "Tarik Glenn retired, what do we do! Draft a tackle at whatever spot we're sitting in! Hi Tony!"

    The Patriots say "My god, this guy has more potential as a football player than anyone else left in this entire draft. We were going to move Vollmer over eventually but imagine what Dante could do with this kid! Grab him!"

    Meanwhile, the fans are chanting for Jerry Hughes.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2011
  15. Hercules Rockefeller

    Hercules Rockefeller Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Thank you Tobias! Goodness, it's as if everyone has forgotten what team we cheer for, and who is pulling the trigger on these selections. This happens EVERY YEAR, and every year the sky is falling. Miraculously, the sky always winds up back in its place. I see the logic in what they are doing, and I am anxious to see their next moves in the draft and free agency. Enjoy the process, and do not allow yourself to get so emotionally attached to the ideas you have about a particular player.
     
  16. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    No.:D:D:D:D
     
  17. Triple-T

    Triple-T Practice Squad Player

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    Even worse, the colts traded a #1 for Ugoh who was released after 4 years of suckage. That's now two #1s to fill a position. They better pray they didn't screw the pooch again. And Polian is a very good drafter.

    Conversely, Belichick already had an LT replacement on the team and only spent a #2. He now may have someone even better.
     
  18. letekro

    letekro In the Starting Line-Up

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    You're right that not all needs were addressed. But calling Nate Solder, Gosselin's 13th overall player, a developmental LT, is a stretch. Saying Mallett is full of question marks without mentioning that he dominated SEC competition in a pro-style offense, BB couldn't wear him out in film study, and that he will likely have the strongest arm in the NFL, shows you have an Agenda. And Vereen and Dowling were taken within 13 slots of their Gosselin ranking and likely would've been gone before the next Patriots pick. Why don't you mention that Malllett was taken 34 slots AFTER his Gosselin rannking??

    Ridley was a reach, but BB wanted to make the trade with the raiders and thought Ridley would be gone by the 5th, so he pulled the trigger. Again, this is a player than ran for 15 TDs in the SEC last year.
     
  19. letekro

    letekro In the Starting Line-Up

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    As Reiss often says, when you pick based on need, you often end up picking the same position next year (See Butler, Darius). need should always be a factor in your analysis, but it should not control your analysis. I don't think we will be getting our LT or even Mike Vrabel this year, but Stroud and Ty Warren will improve our DL depth. I fully expect that Dowling, with his 4 years of experience in a BB defense, will start opposite McCourty, making Bodden the nickel--which is a HUGE improvement over last year. Hopefully Mike Wright returns and Pryor's back issues are a thing of the past, which would improve the inside rush. Cunningham should be improved. Yes, the other OLB spot is a problem, but which team has a stud at every position? The Packers rolled out a bunch of nonames after Nick Barnett and Popinga went down, and they won the SB.
     
  20. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This is right on the mark. BB majored in Economics, and the way he manipulates the draft board is true to his educational background. BB uses those picks to gain additional picks, then reinvests them so he always gets extra picks. That's why we get to make 10 extra picks over the past two drafts, including 8 picks in the first 2 rounds. BB does use the picks, just not directly, but to gain picks.

    Imagine you have $5M in the bank. If you did absolutely nothing but kept it in a 2% interest savings account, you'd make $100K a year. You could live off that forever. But you'd have some guys who would blow through the $5M within 5 to 10 years living the high life, and needing money when they should have been set for life.

    You can use that 1st and 2nd rounder today and never have them again. Or you can use them to generate extra 2nd and 3rd round picks every year. I know some people will still say screw the future, live for today. Those are the same fools that would blow through a fortune quite quickly.
     
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