It's interesting that so many folks seemingly haven't figured out the economics of Belichick's draft system after so many years. While there's variation every year, there's a simple principle at work:
If you "bank" a first round pick, you'll get an extra 2nd round pick as "interest" *every year*. Likewise, if you "bank" a 2nd round pick, you'll get an extra third round pick *every year*.
He's *already* invested draft picks to get extra return *every year*. Fans and media types seem to have trouble understanding this simple economic system. Fans look at the two first round picks and ever year expect two first rounders when they should instead expect one first rounder and an extra *2nd*. The 2nd round pick similarly produces an extra 3rd every year.
It's that simple in principle. Expect a a pair of 2's and 3's next year, not a pair of 1's and 2's. In practice, it's not that exact, because the "banked" pick has to regenerate itself via a trade, and future draft picks have uncertain value, and trading partners are inherently unreliable. Also, the consensus value equivalence tables are not that simple, but roughly work out to a one down round interest rate for the first two rounds.
Belichick will only with great reluctance spend his banked picks. That's why he almost never will spend both picks in a round, but will rather trade one forward to get one down.
But that's what he's trying to do: think of it as if the Patriots have a perpetual extra 2nd and 3rd rounder vs all the other teams not practicing this system. Fans are impatient, and mediia types can be superficial, but the Belichick system -- like everything else he does -- is very well thought out. and he patiently stats within his system. Everything about Belichick's football operations is under impressive quality control.
If you "bank" a first round pick, you'll get an extra 2nd round pick as "interest" *every year*. Likewise, if you "bank" a 2nd round pick, you'll get an extra third round pick *every year*.
He's *already* invested draft picks to get extra return *every year*. Fans and media types seem to have trouble understanding this simple economic system. Fans look at the two first round picks and ever year expect two first rounders when they should instead expect one first rounder and an extra *2nd*. The 2nd round pick similarly produces an extra 3rd every year.
It's that simple in principle. Expect a a pair of 2's and 3's next year, not a pair of 1's and 2's. In practice, it's not that exact, because the "banked" pick has to regenerate itself via a trade, and future draft picks have uncertain value, and trading partners are inherently unreliable. Also, the consensus value equivalence tables are not that simple, but roughly work out to a one down round interest rate for the first two rounds.
Belichick will only with great reluctance spend his banked picks. That's why he almost never will spend both picks in a round, but will rather trade one forward to get one down.
But that's what he's trying to do: think of it as if the Patriots have a perpetual extra 2nd and 3rd rounder vs all the other teams not practicing this system. Fans are impatient, and mediia types can be superficial, but the Belichick system -- like everything else he does -- is very well thought out. and he patiently stats within his system. Everything about Belichick's football operations is under impressive quality control.
Last edited:
