The #1 draft need is likely to be DL

[mayoclinic]

Very good question.

I probably would grade them equally (maybe a slight edge to Cooper) but if you think they'll both prove to be equally good in the long-term, then I'd default to who provides the biggest immediate boost rather than your approach of prioritising positions (an equally valid philosophy). As I've said I think OL is our biggest need, that means that Cooper would get my vote.

In reality, I would pinch myself if either of those guys fell to within 5 picks of where we were picking, and would hope that we would consider making a move for either (depending on who else was on the board). It's hard to go wrong either way.

Just to be clear, when I personally say things like "I hope they go for DL in the draft" or something to that effect, what I mean is:

1) ASSUMING that BB takes his usual approach to the offseason and re-signs the key players and fills the major holes so that he goes into the draft with no glaring needs; and

2) ASSUMING that there are quality DL values available at various points in the draft, which are at least comparable to the values at other positions,

then I hope the Pats use at least some - hopefully more than 1 pick - of their meager draft capital from this draft on the DL position. I don't mean take DL at the cost of ignoring other areas of need, or reaching for prospects, or passing up better prospects.

As for OL, I've always valued it highly. It all depends on the valuation of the prospects. I hated the rumors that the Pats were enamored of Mike Pouncey in 2011, though I loved his brother in 2010. I was frankly hoping when the Pats traded up to #25 that Pittsburgh would have taken Hightower at 24 and the Pat taken David DeCastro. I loved DeCastro's toughness. Then maybe we would have taken Lavonte David at 48.

Ochmed loves Barrett Jones' versatility, smarts, and blue collar toughness. I like all those things but just don't see a guy who's ceiling is high enough to take in the 1st round over other guys. Cooper, on the other hand, I can buy into in the 1st without question. Who knows how BB will see it?

 

[manxman2601]

In reality, I would pinch myself if either of those guys fell to within 5 picks of where we were picking, and would hope that we would consider making a move for either (depending on who else was on the board). It's hard to go wrong either way.

Just to be clear, when I personally say things like "I hope they go for DL in the draft" or something to that effect, what I mean is:

1) ASSUMING that BB takes his usual approach to the offseason and re-signs the key players and fills the major holes so that he goes into the draft with no glaring needs; and

2) ASSUMING that there are quality DL values available at various points in the draft, which are at least comparable to the values at other positions,

then I hope the Pats use at least some - hopefully more than 1 pick - of their meager draft capital from this draft on the DL position. I don't mean take DL at the cost of ignoring other areas of need, or reaching for prospects, or passing up better prospects.

As for OL, I've always valued it highly. It all depends on the valuation of the prospects. I hated the rumors that the Pats were enamored of Mike Pouncey in 2011, though I loved his brother in 2010. I was frankly hoping when the Pats traded up to #25 that Pittsburgh would have taken Hightower at 24 and the Pat taken David DeCastro. I loved DeCastro's toughness. Then maybe we would have taken Lavonte David at 48.

Ochmed loves Barrett Jones' versatility, smarts, and blue collar toughness. I like all those things but just don't see a guy who's ceiling is high enough to take in the 1st round over other guys. Cooper, on the other hand, I can buy into in the 1st without question. Who knows how BB will see it?

Like x100....

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm with you on almost every point but I strongly disagree on #4. Our O/L is actually pretty poor, is aging and with the growth of the Running game and the ageing of Brady becoming even more vital. For me, interior OL is our biggest need by a mile.

I'm mostly with you on this one, Manx - I wouldn't go so far as to say that interior OL is our "biggest need by a mile", but I certainly have it as a high priority, and it's the one area that I also disagree with Ken's assessment.

For me, OL is the 3rd most important area of the team after QB and DL. It's a vitally important area to keep healthy and to replenish. Scar is a master at plugging holes and making the sum greater than the parts, but there's nothing like having good starting material to work with. I'm always willing to invest in both the DL and OL whether they are acute needs or not, believing that those are vitally important areas of the team where you want to build depth and have a pipeline of talent. Those positions also taking an enormous beating, making depth all the more important.

It's clear to me that interior OL is just as important as the tackle positions. Center may be the 2nd most important position on offense in some respects, and it's currently a bit of a weakness. The guards are vitally important to the running game, as you note, and are key in limiting interior pressure, especially with an aging Brady, also as you note. So I'm 100% on board with that. Mankins will be 31 and hasn't been at his peak in 2 years. He may be on the downside of his career, or he may just need to get healthy. That's an important evaluation for the team to make, especially with his $10M+ cap figure for the next few years. Connolly is on the wrong side of 30 and banged up, and he's been more effective at center than at guard. Thomas is a FA. He's exceeded expectations as a LG, but doesn't really seem to fit at RG. Cannon has intriguing athleticism and size, but is unproven inside. The rest are solid backups and role players, but haven't proven themselves to be more. So I can certainly buy in to investing in the OG position. Many of us had hoped this would have been addressed in 2012, either via day 2 prospects such as Amino Sitatolu or day 3 guys like Senio Kelemete.

The tackle position is not without question marks either. Solder looks solid at this point, despite a few blips. But Vollmer's status needs to be resolved, making RT potentially a major area to address in the draft if he leaves. Even if he stays, a swing tackle should probably be addressed at some point in the draft.

So I'm personally hoping to pick up 2 linemen out of this draft: a swing tackle and a guard. I'd personally like the luxury of something like Brian Winters in the 3rd round and someone like Reid Fragel or Luke Marquardt Day 3, but I recongize that the area may need more immediate attention than that.

I'd like to be able to address the defense, and specifically the DL, in the draft. I personally think we're not that far off. But if BB decides that the OL needs a major infusion of talent and chooses to address it, I have no problem with that at all. Either OT, OG, or both. There's no question in my mind that it's worth the investment.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm mostly with you on this one, Manx - I wouldn't go so far as to say that interior OL is our "biggest need by a mile", but I certainly have it as a high priority, and it's the one area that I also disagree with Ken's assessment.

For me, OL is the 3rd most important area of the team after QB and DL. It's a vitally important area to keep healthy and to replenish. Scar is a master at plugging holes and making the sum greater than the parts, but there's nothing like having good starting material to work with. I'm always willing to invest in both the DL and OL whether they are acute needs or not, believing that those are vitally important areas of the team where you want to build depth and have a pipeline of talent. Those positions also taking an enormous beating, making depth all the more important.

It's clear to me that interior OL is just as important as the tackle positions. Center may be the 2nd most important position on offense in some respects, and it's currently a bit of a weakness. The guards are vitally important to the running game, as you note, and are key in limiting interior pressure, especially with an aging Brady, also as you note. So I'm 100% on board with that. Mankins will be 31 and hasn't been at his peak in 2 years. He may be on the downside of his career, or he may just need to get healthy. That's an important evaluation for the team to make, especially with his $10M+ cap figure for the next few years. Connolly is on the wrong side of 30 and banged up, and he's been more effective at center than at guard. Thomas is a FA. He's exceeded expectations as a LG, but doesn't really seem to fit at RG. Cannon has intriguing athleticism and size, but is unproven inside. The rest are solid backups and role players, but haven't proven themselves to be more. So I can certainly buy in to investing in the OG position. Many of us had hoped this would have been addressed in 2012, either via day 2 prospects such as Amino Sitatolu or day 3 guys like Senio Kelemete.

The tackle position is not without question marks either. Solder looks solid at this point, despite a few blips. But Vollmer's status needs to be resolved, making RT potentially a major area to address in the draft if he leaves. Even if he stays, a swing tackle should probably be addressed at some point in the draft.

So I'm personally hoping to pick up 2 linemen out of this draft: a swing tackle and a guard. I'd personally like the luxury of something like Brian Winters in the 3rd round and someone like Reid Fragel or Luke Marquardt Day 3, but I recongize that the area may need more immediate attention than that.

I'd like to be able to address the defense, and specifically the DL, in the draft. I personally think we're not that far off. But if BB decides that the OL needs a major infusion of talent and chooses to address it, I have no problem with that at all. Either OT, OG, or both. There's no question in my mind that it's worth the investment.

Yup.

I'd like one from each of the two groups below:

J. Cooper
D. Thomas
B. Winters


Lane Johnson (perhaps lost in my Armstead post. I love Lane Johnson)
Reid Fragel (Who I do think is good enough straight away)

And then picking up one of the development guys we've been talking about (Armstead, Gilkey, Marquadt) would also be nice.

Note: Whilst I didn't rate Kyle Long at OG, I may have to take another look as too many rate him at OT. Can't say I want him yet, but I'm not closed to the idea.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yup.

I'd like one from each of the two groups below:

J. Cooper
D. Thomas
B. Winters


Lane Johnson (perhaps lost in my Armstead post. I love Lane Johnson)
Reid Fragel (Who I do think is good enough straight away)

And then picking up one of the development guys we've been talking about (Armstead, Gilkey, Marquadt) would also be nice.

Note: Whilst I didn't rate Kyle Long at OG, I may have to take another look as too many rate him at OT. Can't say I want him yet, but I'm not closed to the idea.

Fabulous short list. Darn near perfect, at least for me. With the inclusion of Kyle Long, that's pretty much my list, too. If you look at most of the mocks that I've done this year, I think you'll find "one from column A and one from column B" has been a fairly constant feature. I was also the first person to bring up Lane Johnson, Kyle Long and Reid Fragel on the draft prospect thread (as you were with Marquardt, Gilkey, Armstead and many, many others), so I'm very much on board with this group.

 

[kennyb]

Apparently you think that the 2013 draft is all about 2013. Drafts are to build teams for the future.
============================
We have only Wilfork, Jones, Bequette and Francis signed beyond 2013. 2012 was a good first step; but we need more. And for Belichick, the best place to find defensive linemen is in the draft.
===========================
Obviously WR and CB are our highest offseason needs, given that Welker, Edelman, Branch, Talib, Arrington and Cole are all free agents. This situation does NOT translate into a draft need. We are more likely to fill these needs through re-signing and free agency.
===========================
IMHO, complaining about the OL is a matter of ignorance. Of course, Bill and Dante will look for developmental offensive lineman as they do every year. However, no immediate help is required, except for veteran RT, which will likely be Vollmer or a free agent.

No, I don't think the draft is only about 2013. Didn't say it or imply it.

I think the line is a need, IMHO. Vollmer is gone to the highest bidder and the interior line is weak. They need help now or at least a good backup if cannon can play RT.

Yes, an "impact" DL player would be nice. And how do you separate out the wheat from the chaff when so many DL bust? YOu can't know you'll get an "impact DL" even in the late 1st round. To imply otherwise, is, IMHO, ignorant. Justin Francis and Trevor Scott were making something of an "impact", so toss them aside for a rookie?

If you start from the assertion that all FAs will be signed (how? with what? Vollmer, Welker, Talib all free market rate signings?), then of course there's little need anywhere.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Vollmer is more likely to get decent money with the Patriots than with anyone else with those back issues. Talib has a reputation. Neither of those two players is demanding the retail value of the top end money at their position. Vollmer is premier...if he can stand up. Talib is a good corner...if he isn't opening fire on his brother in law. Ifs don't equal dollar signs. At least not those kind of ifs.

Welker, I firmly believe will get some stupid money from someone. If Pierre Garcon is worth a 40 mil contract, Welker certainly is, even if he is running the option route with the aid of a walker by the end of the contract.

The o-line just seems to happen. I pay no attention to OL prospects because it seems like there's a 50% success rate with the guys we bring in. Donald friggin Thomas has been outplaying Mankins from time to time. I maintain that Scar could make Edelman, Welker, Slater, Bethel Johnson, and Betty White work together as a decent line.

 

[manxman2601]

Vollmer is more likely to get decent money with the Patriots than with anyone else with those back issues. Talib has a reputation. Neither of those two players is demanding the retail value of the top end money at their position. Vollmer is premier...if he can stand up. Talib is a good corner...if he isn't opening fire on his brother in law. Ifs don't equal dollar signs. At least not those kind of ifs.

Welker, I firmly believe will get some stupid money from someone. If Pierre Garcon is worth a 40 mil contract, Welker certainly is, even if he is running the option route with the aid of a walker by the end of the contract.

The o-line just seems to happen. I pay no attention to OL prospects because it seems like there's a 50% success rate with the guys we bring in. Donald friggin Thomas has been outplaying Mankins from time to time. I maintain that Scar could make Edelman, Welker, Slater, Bethel Johnson, and Betty White work together as a decent line.

And yet we've drafted:

Nate Solder - 1st Round
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd Round
Logan Mankins - 1st Round
Matt Light - 2nd Round
Nick Kaczur - 3rd Round

With the exceptions of Koppen, Neal and Connolly, most our OL the last decade have been high draft picks. Ignoring OL prospects seems a little short-sighted in light of that I'd argue.

 

[mayoclinic]

And yet we've drafted:

Nate Solder - 1st Round
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd Round
Logan Mankins - 1st Round
Matt Light - 2nd Round
Nick Kaczur - 3rd Round

With the exceptions of Koppen, Neal and Connolly, most our OL the last decade have been high draft picks. Ignoring OL prospects seems a little short-sighted in light of that I'd argue.

It's hard to argue against taking OL if Scar sees value, no matter what the level. I would have been thrilled to take guys like David DeCastro, Amini Sitatolu, Mitchell Schwartz, Danny Watkins and Jared Veldheer if Scar had decided they were worth the investment.

 

[manxman2601]

It's hard to argue against taking OL if Scar sees value, no matter what the level. I would have been thrilled to take guys like David DeCastro, Amini Sitatolu, Mitchell Schwartz, Danny Watkins and Jared Veldheer if Scar had decided they were worth the investment.

Of note, Kevin Zeitler is having an outstanding year by all accounts. Think I saw he was the 2nd rated RG in the NFL although I can't remember the source.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

And yet we've drafted:

Nate Solder - 1st Round
Sebastian Vollmer - 2nd Round
Logan Mankins - 1st Round
Matt Light - 2nd Round
Nick Kaczur - 3rd Round

With the exceptions of Koppen, Neal and Connolly, most our OL the last decade have been high draft picks. Ignoring OL prospects seems a little short-sighted in light of that I'd argue.

I don't devalue them, I just don't spend anywhere near the time I'd spend on a DL or LB "evaluating" OL prospects because it seems like whomever they grab will work. That's exhausting.

Most people just let the thread go the way its going and chime in when they can offer something. For some reason, I advertised that I had nothing to contribute to the OL conversation.

 

[manxman2601]

I don't devalue them, I just don't spend anywhere near the time I'd spend on a DL or LB "evaluating" OL prospects because it seems like whomever they grab will work. That's exhausting.

Most people just let the thread go the way its going and chime in when they can offer something. For some reason, I advertised that I had nothing to contribute to the OL conversation.

I wasn't having a go, was just pointing out that OL is worth focusing on. Of course I would say that as I've gone on record saying it's our biggest need. There are some really interesting OL's this year, both at the top end of the draft and at the bottom developmental end. They're well worth the time and effort.

 

[mayoclinic]

Of note, Kevin Zeitler is having an outstanding year by all accounts. Think I saw he was the 2nd rated RG in the NFL although I can't remember the source.

Cincinnati surprised a lot of people taking Zeitler, and I believe the had him rated ahead of DeCastro.

I have a different version of SeymourTrophies' "I pay no attention to Offensive Line prospects". I kind of discount the position, because of Scar. If Scar sees someone he really wants, he'll get BB's attention and probably end up getting that guy, no matter where. And he'll end up being good. So I don't worry about the position that much.

 

[manxman2601]

Cincinnati surprised a lot of people taking Zeitler, and I believe the had him rated ahead of DeCastro.

I have a different version of SeymourTrophies' "I pay no attention to Offensive Line prospects". I kind of discount the position, because of Scar. If Scar sees someone he really wants, he'll get BB's attention and probably end up getting that guy, no matter where. And he'll end up being good. So I don't worry about the position that much.

After watching a bit of Eric Fisher last night, I wouldn't mind Scar telling BB he wants him. Outstanding.

As a thought, if Vollmer does leave in FA, and bearing in mind some of Solder's struggles, I wonder whether we take another OT for the LT position and switch Solder to RT.

I'm not overly down on Solder, a period of development was always on his radar and I think by and large he's done very well, but if there is a better LT prospect available like Fisher potentially, I wouldn't be entirely opposed.

 

[mayoclinic]

After watching a bit of Eric Fisher last night, I wouldn't mind Scar telling BB he wants him. Outstanding.

As a thought, if Vollmer does leave in FA, and bearing in mind some of Solder's struggles, I wonder whether we take another OT for the LT position and switch Solder to RT.

I'm not overly down on Solder, a period of development was always on his radar and I think by and large he's done very well, but if there is a better LT prospect available like Fisher potentially, I wouldn't be entirely opposed.

I was wondering if Fisher would make your list. That was my only qualification to the "darn near perfect" comment. I doubt he'll last to us, but he'd be a good fit. Ochmed as already discussed him as a possibility, and the idea that tackle would be a high priority if Vollmer leaves.

I've also speculated about the idea of moving Solder to RT if Vollmer leaves and a LT like Fisher is available. I think it depends on who is available. Someone like Lane Johnson, Kyle Long or Reid Fragel probably steps in at RT. But Risher would probably step in at LT with Solder moving to RT.

Right now with 5 picks I'd be very happy to use 2 on DL, 2 on OL, and 1 on WR. I think tha secondary can hopefully be addressed in FA, though I'd love to get a late round guy like Dexter McCoil.

 

[manxman2601]

I was wondering if Fisher would make your list. That was my only qualification to the "darn near perfect" comment. I doubt he'll last to us, but he'd be a good fit. Ochmed as already discussed him as a possibility, and the idea that tackle would be a high priority if Vollmer leaves.

I've also speculated about the idea of moving Solder to RT if Vollmer leaves and a LT like Fisher is available. I think it depends on who is available. Someone like Lane Johnson, Kyle Long or Reid Fragel probably steps in at RT. But Risher would probably step in at LT with Solder moving to RT.

Right now with 5 picks I'd be very happy to use 2 on DL, 2 on OL, and 1 on WR. I think tha secondary can hopefully be addressed in FA, though I'd love to get a late round guy like Dexter McCoil.

This will depend on Welker and Edelman. It would be very hard to go through next year with one draft pick, Lloyd and a collection of JAG FA's. If anyone can succeed with that it's Brady but as injuries are showing this year, our effectiveness is severely reduced as Brady's options are.

Starting to think that it would be better to let Vollmer go, re-sign Welker and use this year to rebuild the OL. Heck, maybe even re-sign Edelman and forget WR for another year.

Only trouble with forgetting WR is that this is a really nice class for the first two days.

Edit: Hadn't mentioned Fisher earlier because I've thought he's out of reach and therefore hadn't considered him.

 

[patsfaninpa]

After watching a bit of Eric Fisher last night, I wouldn't mind Scar telling BB he wants him. Outstanding.

As a thought, if Vollmer does leave in FA, and bearing in mind some of Solder's struggles, I wonder whether we take another OT for the LT position and switch Solder to RT.

I'm not overly down on Solder, a period of development was always on his radar and I think by and large he's done very well, but if there is a better LT prospect available like Fisher potentially, I wouldn't be entirely opposed.

I don't think Fisher is a better prospect than Solder. Solder's struggles. Yeah, against Aldon Smith. Who has Fisher played against? My god, he's been in the MAC. Re-up Vollmer, we have a backup for him already in Cannon. Total waste of resources to spend another first on a tackle when we have two good ones.

 

[mayoclinic]

This will depend on Welker and Edelman. It would be very hard to go through next year with one draft pick, Lloyd and a collection of JAG FA's. If anyone can succeed with that it's Brady but as injuries are showing this year, our effectiveness is severely reduced as Brady's options are.

Starting to think that it would be better to re-sign Welker and use this year to rebuild the OL. Heck, maybe even re-sign Edelman and forget WR for another year. Only trouble with forgetting WR is that this is a really nice class for the first two days.

As I've discussed in the "Blueprint" thread, re=signing Welker and Edelman has been one of my priorities for the Pats. I don't see both of them leaving under any circumstances, and I doubt that even one leaves without a FA signing in return. But that would obviously affect the WR situation going into the draft. I do believe that it would be folly to expect the draft to produce immediate productivity at the WR position, so to go into next season with Lloyd, some JAGs and some rookies would not make a lot of sense, and I doubt the FO will let that happen. But we'll see.

Starting to think that it would be better to let Vollmer go and use this year to rebuild the OL. Hadn't mentioned Fisher earlier because I've thought he's out of reach and therefore hadn't considered him.

I don't think Fisher is a better prospect than Solder. Solder's struggles. Yeah, against Aldon Smith. Who has Fisher played against? My god, he's been in the MAC. Re-up Vollmer, we have a backup for him already in Cannon. Total waste of resources to spend another first on a tackle when we have two good ones.

I would agree with you completely, except for the issues regarding Vollmer's back and long term health, and the cap situation. The team will have to make a judgment call as to how much he's worth, and whether he is likely to be someone they can count on for the long term. There's no doubt that healthy he's the best RT in the NFL, and that's the way he was playing for the first 10 games or so of the season, but he's been a different player down the stretch due to injuries. We're not privy to his medical information, so it's hard to make that call, and we don't know what the market will be like. My preference would obviously be a healthy Vollmer signed for the long term, but I recognize that that may not be in the cards, so it's not imprudent to consider other alternatives. We'll know a lot more by the time the draft rolls around. It will be etiher be resolved by then, or a major priority.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I'm willing to gamble on Vollmer knowing how good he is. The contracts aren't guaranteed. The other teams know he has back issues. He's not going to get a huge signing bonus. He does deserve a decent one though. And, maybe give him a pretty good roster bonus for year 2. If he gets hurt after year two, the cap hit isn't going to be very large. We won 15 straight, 17-2 OVERALL and won the Super Bowl with Tom Ashworth at RT. The best offensive team in league history had Nick Kaczur at RT. Defense with 2 of the first 3 picks. Would like a wr in round 2 or 3. I'd be willing to bet Marcus Cannon would be fine at RT if we needed him.

 

[manxman2601]

I don't think Fisher is a better prospect than Solder. Solder's struggles. Yeah, against Aldon Smith. Who has Fisher played against? My god, he's been in the MAC. Re-up Vollmer, we have a backup for him already in Cannon. Total waste of resources to spend another first on a tackle when we have two good ones.

Yeah, yeah I get it. You and me don't see eye to eye. Seems like nothing new recently.

Unless of course you count "Mayo's binky" Ezekiel Ansah. you obviously weren't here before he became his binky - he was someone else's too. :rocker: