The #1 draft need is likely to be DL

[patsfaninpa]

I think DL is the last are the team needs. OL/WR/CB is where I think they need the most help. They seem to be able to pick up decent DL anywhere especially now that they're 4-3 more often. Myron Pryor is also coming back. Cunningham will be back I think also.

Fourth 500 pt seasons in the last 6 years and likely no championships. Yup, need to bolster the offense.

 

[manxman2601]

Fourth 500 pt seasons in the last 6 years and likely no championships. Yup, need to bolster the offense.

Two SB's in five years when we scored a combined 31 points. Our defense did what was required, it was our offense, particularly depth, that let us down.

 

[patsfaninpa]

Two SB's in five years when we scored a combined 31 points. Our defense did what was required, it was our offense, particularly depth, that let us down.

I saw those games as a defense that couldn't make a stop when it had to.

 

[DocHoliday]

I saw those games as a defense that couldn't make a stop when it had to.

Which is easier - change the character of the team or to ensure nobody takes alway your high scoring identity?

We are a stud WR away from overcoming the physical man defenses.

We are two or more drafts from becoming a defensive powerhouse.

 

[manxman2601]

We are two or more drafts from becoming a defensive powerhouse.

Assuming we hit on both those drafts.

 

[jsull87]

Assuming we hit on both those drafts.

I honestly think this defense we have right now is 1-2 players away from being a consistant, good defense. Assuming the personnel we have now, to be a really good defense we need a true LDE (Red Bryant would have been the guy here we thought Fenene was the man but were mistaken... this could have made a huge difference with this team).

More of a luxury but we could also do with a Saftey across from McCourty. But #1 is the DL.

I think those two things would make this Defense top 5 calibre and i am not sure they both are accomplished through the draft.

You see the great change in our D and our playcalling since Talib has arrived. I think that flow would be even greater with a DL capable of taking advantage of the better coverage skills.

FA's or Trade:

The guy i could see taking the spot opposite Jones is Johnson from Cincinatti. He is young and has increased his playing time and QB pressures every year of his career. He has the length at 6'7 270 that BB seems to covet and could be the best option in FA here (assuming we stick to more of a 4-3 front).

Trade for Darnell Docket. He is a ready made top teir NFL DLineman who has had a run in with his team and isn't happy. He would be my #1 option as he could play DE in the 3-4 and LDE in the 4-3, is a seasoned Pro and can be a dominant force. It would take a high draft pick IMO to get him (probably a 2nd) but if you want to take advantage of Brady's back 9 then i this would honestly be my preference (if he is up for trade).

Henry Melton: DE/DT prospect who is young and a penetrating presence on the DL. I don't think Chicago wil let him go but i like him.

 

[mayoclinic]

I honestly think this defense we have right now is 1-2 players away from being a consistant, good defense. Assuming the personnel we have now, to be a really good defense we need a true LDE (Red Bryant would have been the guy here we thought Fenene was the man but were mistaken... this could have made a huge difference with this team).

More of a luxury but we could also do with a Saftey across from McCourty. But #1 is the DL.

I think those two things would make this Defense top 5 calibre and i am not sure they both are accomplished through the draft.

You see the great change in our D and our playcalling since Talib has arrived. I think that flow would be even greater with a DL capable of taking advantage of the better coverage skills.

FA's or Trade:

The guy i could see taking the spot opposite Jones is Johnson from Cincinatti. He is young and has increased his playing time and QB pressures every year of his career. He has the length at 6'7 270 that BB seems to covet and could be the best option in FA here (assuming we stick to more of a 4-3 front).

Trade for Darnell Docket. He is a ready made top teir NFL DLineman who has had a run in with his team and isn't happy. He would be my #1 option as he could play DE in the 3-4 and LDE in the 4-3, is a seasoned Pro and can be a dominant force. It would take a high draft pick IMO to get him (probably a 2nd) but if you want to take advantage of Brady's back 9 then i this would honestly be my preference (if he is up for trade).

Henry Melton: DE/DT prospect who is young and a penetrating presence on the DL. I don't think Chicago wil let him go but i like him.

All of those FA options will be somewhat problematic under the current cap situation. Dockett has a cap hit of $6.9M in 2013, and is 31. Johnson and Melton will be FAs and will not come cheap, especially Melton, who will probably command $7-8M/year in the unlikely event that he gets out of Chicago. I'm not sure where that money would come from. I'd trade a 1st in a heartbeat for someone like Calais Campbell, but Arizona would never trade him, and his contract would create cap problems.

OTOH, someone like Ziggy Ansah, Sam Montgomery, Margus Hunt or Trent Murphy (if he declares) would be quite cost effective. Neither would be as proven, and both might take longer to develop. But I dont see the FA route being an viable option unless we somehow free up a lot of cap space.

 

[jsull87]

All of those FA options will be somewhat problematic under the current cap situation. Dockett has a cap hit of $6.9M in 2013, and is 31. Johnson and Melton will be FAs and will not come cheap, especially Melton, who will probably command $7-8M/year in the unlikely event that he gets out of Chicago. I'm not sure where that money would come from. I'd trade a 1st in a heartbeat for someone like Calais Campbell, but Arizona would never trade him, and his contract would create cap problems.

OTOH, someone like Ziggy Ansah, Sam Montgomery, Margus Hunt or Trent Murphy (if he declares) would be quite cost effective. Neither would be as proven, and both might take longer to develop. But I dont see the FA route being an viable option unless we somehow free up a lot of cap space.

The cost is the issue with all FA signings i guess. I agree with you that this year it looks like the FA's we'll be targeting most are our own Vollmer, Welker, Talib and Woodhead. Extending Brady could help free some room. But i am not sure we will have much to spend after this on the defense.

Irrespective of cost i just wanted to point out that there are a few players out there in FA/Trade that would make this defense take the next step. I am not sure if a Rookie DE/DT (outside a 1st half 1st round pick) will be able to make the impact we are looking for.

After Hunt's Bowl Game performance and the fact he will obviously tear up the combine. I think we'll find he will end up being a Dontari Poe type out of reach run by the end of the draft process.

Hopefully i am wrong and we pick up another Jones in the draft, i have just formed the opinion over this season that adding a Vet starter might just be what this D needs rather than getting younger. More on a confidence and leardership than anything. One thing under rated with the Talib signing is he was a guy who has played in the NFL and knew he could cut it with the best. I think it gave the coaches and defense more confidence.

 

[mayoclinic]

The cost is the issue with all FA signings i guess. I agree with you that this year it looks like the FA's we'll be targeting most are our own Vollmer, Welker, Talib and Woodhead. Extending Brady could help free some room. But i am not sure we will have much to spend after this on the defense.

Irrespective of cost i just wanted to point out that there are a few players out there in FA/Trade that would make this defense take the next step. I am not sure if a Rookie DE/DT (outside a 1st half 1st round pick) will be able to make the impact we are looking for.

After Hunt's Bowl Game performance and the fact he will obviously tear up the combine. I think we'll find he will end up being a Dontari Poe type out of reach run by the end of the draft process.

Hopefully i am wrong and we pick up another Jones in the draft, i have just formed the opinion over this season that adding a Vet starter might just be what this D needs rather than getting younger. More on a confidence and leardership than anything. One thing under rated with the Talib signing is he was a guy who has played in the NFL and knew he could cut it with the best. I think it gave the coaches and defense more confidence.

I doubt Hunt will rise like Poe did. He'll probably be a day 2 pick instead of a day 3 pick, but that's ok. His age and lack of technique will keep him down. And if someone wants to take him high, it will push someone else down.

I'm all for adding an impact DL like Melton or Campbell, but I have no idea how it would happen.

 

[SeymourTrophies]

Two SB's in five years when we scored a combined 31 points. Our defense did what was required, it was our offense, particularly depth, that let us down.

A defense that does not force one 3 and out is not without fault. IIRC, both touchdown drives started in the shadow of our own goalpost. We actually force a 3 and out on the eventual go ahead TD drive if Nink doesn't jump offside. Sorry, OT.

Wilfork is an underrated pusher of the pocket. If we can get a guy who is reliable at eating up blocks in the middle, Vince can move around and occupy blocks. A few of us were giggling at the thought of Red Bryant coming to pair with Vince. It'll be interesting to see how they approach the offseason because they clearly thought they had addressed the situation with Fanene. The developing crop of mobile pocket passers creates a huge issue with our gigantic front seven. I would sacrifice a little bit of edge setting for a guy who can run down any QB and spread a line out with some speed. Right now, Jerod Mayo is the fastest guy in our front seven by a lot with Hightower being the second. I loved the Hightower pick, but a part of me wanted Mercilus to replace Mark Anderson in a role that is severely underrated (obviously after moving back).

 

[mayoclinic]

A defense that does not force one 3 and out is not without fault. IIRC, both touchdown drives started in the shadow of our own goalpost. We actually force a 3 and out on the eventual go ahead TD drive if Nink doesn't jump offside. Sorry, OT.

Wilfork is an underrated pusher of the pocket. If we can get a guy who is reliable at eating up blocks in the middle, Vince can move around and occupy blocks. A few of us were giggling at the thought of Red Bryant coming to pair with Vince. It'll be interesting to see how they approach the offseason because they clearly thought they had addressed the situation with Fanene. The developing crop of mobile pocket passers creates a huge issue with our gigantic front seven. I would sacrifice a little bit of edge setting for a guy who can run down any QB and spread a line out with some speed. Right now, Jerod Mayo is the fastest guy in our front seven by a lot with Hightower being the second. I loved the Hightower pick, but a part of me wanted Mercilus to replace Mark Anderson in a role that is severely underrated (obviously after moving back).

Someone like Jesse Williams or Johnathan Hankins could pair inside with Wilfork quite nicely, or move outside as a 3-4 DE or even a 4-3 LDE.

The idea of moving Hightower up on the line at times and adding a Dion Jordan, Alec Ogletree or Kyle Van Noy is also rather appealing .

 

[mgteich]

Are we simply presuming the re-signing of players or at least signing their equal in free agency? I agree that WR and CB are free agency issues. However, let's not make believe that the offense would be as good without these players

The offense will need to re-sign or replace/upgrade Welker, Edelman, Vollmer, Woodhead and Thomas. For me, these issues are not draft issues, other than the annual waste of a pick on a wide receiver.

===========
Yes, given our current team, the critical DRAFT need is on the defensive line, presuming that we re-sign or replace Talib and Arrington in free agency. Some would say that we also need to re-sign or upgrade Chung. I certainly am not sold on the idea that Wilson is better than Chung.
===========
As an aside, there will not be much cap room in 2014. This draft is the time to add to the DL, and/or extended some of the four: Cunningham, Love, Deaderick and Ninkovich.

Fourth 500 pt seasons in the last 6 years and likely no championships. Yup, need to bolster the offense.

 

[mayoclinic]

We are a stud WR away from overcoming the physical man defenses.

We are two or more drafts from becoming a defensive powerhouse.

Assuming we hit on both those drafts.

Many would disagree with both premises - that we're 2 full drafts away on defense, and that a "stud WR" will solve all problems on offense.

Even granting both premises, our draft history under BB suggests we may get 2 complete drafts of solid defensive players long before we hit on a "stud WR" in the draft.

 

[patfanken]

I can't add anything to the discussion of the individual prospects. You guys are much more knowledgeable. However I do have some thoughts on the basic draft strategy and needs.

1. Its clear that the primary need is on the DL, especially at DT. We need an interior pocking pushing DLman. Unfortunately we are joined in this need by about 25 other NFL teams. Despite the nice depth that's there this year, I doubt that any "sure thing" drops to us. By the time we get to draft, and player available will have enough question marks that it will make the pick a risk.

2. So no matter who is taken, I doubt it will be someone who can step in and fill that need right out of the box. I fear, that if we want that kind of player, we will have to get him in FA.

3. We need a WR. We need to get younger there. I am philosophically against using a first round pick, especially a low one, but I hope we can find someone on the 2nd day that can fill that need. Any WR that we draft will be viewed skeptically, given our past lack of success, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying.

4. WR is the ONLY offensive position worthy of a pick in the top 6 rounds. The OL personnel we have on the team is good enough to be successful. Of course that all changes if we don't resign Volmer and Thomas.

5. Normally I'd say that given we have 2 rookie Safeties already in training, it might be a good year to stay away from that position in the first 3 rounds. However this is going to be one of the deepest and best safety drafts in several years. I would look very closely at who drops to us in the first 3 rounds.

I think the safety position is rising in value in general. With some many new formations like the diamond and pistol. With all the new rules and defensive restrictions. With so many teams starting to copy what the Pats have developed in attacking the defense inside the numbers, good safety play is becoming a bigger component to playing good defense than ever before. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats pick one fairly early.

6. Spikes future will be an interesting one to contemplate as his rookie due date nears. There will be a lot of heated debate on that topic. Too early to have an opinion on that for me, but I'd be disappointed to see an ILB chosen this draft. I recognize the need for a cover LB, but I"d rather fill that need in FA or see if Dane Fletcher can fill it.

7. I wonder if the 4-3 will be our basic DL look long term, or will BB be looking to add 3-4 type players in future drafts and get back to what he started with. Another speed DE early would confirm that the 4-3 is here to stay

 

[manxman2601]

Many would disagree with both premises - that we're 2 full drafts away on defense, and that a "stud WR" will solve all problems on offense.

Even granting both premises, our draft history under BB suggests we may get 2 complete drafts of solid defensive players long before we hit on a "stud WR" in the draft.

Well I actually think a quality O/L is the greater offensive need than a "stud WR" but many may disagree, it doesn't necessarily follow that they are right. Of course I may not be either.

To be honest, my comments on offense are a reaction to the incessant "draft for defensive need as a priority" type comments which I absolutely don't agree with. Regardless of offense or defense, we should be drafting the best possible player with the exception of a couple of positions. That's where I stand.

 

[manxman2601]

I can't add anything to the discussion of the individual prospects. You guys are much more knowledgeable. However I do have some thoughts on the basic draft strategy and needs.

1. Its clear that the primary need is on the DL, especially at DT. We need an interior pocking pushing DLman. Unfortunately we are joined in this need by about 25 other NFL teams. Despite the nice depth that's there this year, I doubt that any "sure thing" drops to us. By the time we get to draft, and player available will have enough question marks that it will make the pick a risk.

2. So no matter who is taken, I doubt it will be someone who can step in and fill that need right out of the box. I fear, that if we want that kind of player, we will have to get him in FA.

3. We need a WR. We need to get younger there. I am philosophically against using a first round pick, especially a low one, but I hope we can find someone on the 2nd day that can fill that need. Any WR that we draft will be viewed skeptically, given our past lack of success, but that doesn't mean we should stop trying.

4. WR is the ONLY offensive position worthy of a pick in the top 6 rounds. The OL personnel we have on the team is good enough to be successful. Of course that all changes if we don't resign Volmer and Thomas.

5. Normally I'd say that given we have 2 rookie Safeties already in training, it might be a good year to stay away from that position in the first 3 rounds. However this is going to be one of the deepest and best safety drafts in several years. I would look very closely at who drops to us in the first 3 rounds.

I think the safety position is rising in value in general. With some many new formations like the diamond and pistol. With all the new rules and defensive restrictions. With so many teams starting to copy what the Pats have developed in attacking the defense inside the numbers, good safety play is becoming a bigger component to playing good defense than ever before. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats pick one fairly early.

6. Spikes future will be an interesting one to contemplate as his rookie due date nears. There will be a lot of heated debate on that topic. Too early to have an opinion on that for me, but I'd be disappointed to see an ILB chosen this draft. I recognize the need for a cover LB, but I"d rather fill that need in FA or see if Dane Fletcher can fill it.

7. I wonder if the 4-3 will be our basic DL look long term, or will BB be looking to add 3-4 type players in future drafts and get back to what he started with. Another speed DE early would confirm that the 4-3 is here to stay

I'm with you on almost every point but I strongly disagree on #4. Our O/L is actually pretty poor, is aging and with the growth of the Running game and the ageing of Brady becoming even more vital. For me, interior OL is our biggest need by a mile.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I'm with you on almost every point but I strongly disagree on #4. Our O/L is actually pretty poor, is aging and with the growth of the Running game and the ageing of Brady becoming even more vital. For me, interior OL is our biggest need by a mile.

Seems like we have a lot of bodies for the interior OL now, however if we add a Barrett Jones in the draft,, I would not be upset in the least.

On the DT front, there is no doubt, there will be a DT with a 1st round grade on the board when we draft. Does BB pull the trigger? I don't think so, but the beauty of this draft is he can come back in the third round and still pick up a quality DT if need be.

 

[mayoclinic]

To be honest, my comments on offense are a reaction to the incessant "draft for defensive need as a priority" type comments which I absolutely don't agree with. Regardless of offense or defense, we should be drafting the best possible player with the exception of a couple of positions. That's where I stand.

My personal biases obviously mean diddly squat to what the Pats actually do, but as I've said, I don't particularly disagree with you. I have a bit of a "defense first" bias and a "build around the trenches" bias, so other things being equal I would tend to go DL >= OL >> WR, DB, RB. But I've never favored taking a clear less talented DL over a superior offensive lineman.

What would you do if Johnathan Hankins and Jonathan Cooper were both on the board and you rated them about equal? In that scenario I'd personally do with the DL, believing it has the bigger impact and that Ai had a better chance of getting someone like Brian Winters later in the draft. Obviously, if you feel Cooper is vastly superior, you don't swap a blue chip player for a red chip guy.

 

[Big-T]

DT, DE, nickel LB would be my first 3 picks now.

Love is good against the run but doesn't offer much pass rush so a penetrating DT first then with the amount of DEs this year taking one in the 2nd round will still net a good player to use on passing downs as a rookie and nickel LB hardly needs explaining.

Of course free agency could change that.

 

[manxman2601]

My personal biases obviously mean diddly squat to what the Pats actually do, but as I've said, I don't particularly disagree with you. I have a bit of a "defense first" bias and a "build around the trenches" bias, so other things being equal I would tend to go DL >= OL >> WR, DB, RB. But I've never favored taking a clear less talented DL over a superior offensive lineman.

What would you do if Johnathan Hankins and Jonathan Cooper were both on the board and you rated them about equal? In that scenario I'd personally do with the DL, believing it has the bigger impact and that Ai had a better chance of getting someone like Brian Winters later in the draft. Obviously, if you feel Cooper is vastly superior, you don't swap a blue chip player for a red chip guy.

Very good question.

I probably would grade them equally (maybe a slight edge to Cooper) but if you think they'll both prove to be equally good in the long-term, then I'd default to who provides the biggest immediate boost rather than your approach of prioritising positions (an equally valid philosophy). As I've said I think OL is our biggest need, that means that Cooper would get my vote.