AJ,
I have to ask your opinion then. Where do you put the Patriots in the AFC East? Do you see them taking the division, if so why? I appreciate your caution and you optimism, but what have you seen this off season to make your assurances any more relative than my opinions? I try not to jump to conclusions so this is a departure for me. I just look back at the time from the end of the season to today and I see disarray. Hell, they even released their best and only tight end with no replacement.
If you look at the Patriots roster and compare it to either the Miami or Jets rosters I don't see how you can say the other rosters aren't better. The difference is Tom Brady, and he is in the last year of hs contract, along with many more members of this year's roster. In the past I always thought that the Pats had it under control, this year I don't see it that way. I see them reacting rather than acting. I see them scrambling to sign their own players rather than trying to fill the holes in the team. I believe in how they do business, but last year we knew where the problems were and their fixes didn't work. Their defensive backfield got better while their pass rush got worse. Their best pass rusher going into the season turned against the head coach, and their offense became timid at the worst possible times.
I am not overacting here, I am stating facts. Unless they do something to fill some of the glaring holes in their defense they will not make the playoffs next year. To fill those holes they have to sign veterans, not draft picks. Unless they find some speed on the outside the offense will again revolve around Moss and the slot, and how did that work out last year against the good teams, and this year our division is filled with good teams.
I wish I could be as positive as you are, but at this point history shows us a team ready to fall. The timing of this year's uncapped year should have made the Patriots players, instead they are bystanders and bargain hunters. I know one man's junk is another mans treasure but usually junk ends up being junk.
Well, we won the division. We won it somewhat handily too, since we didnt even need to show up for our last 2 games.
I don't see what has happened that elevated those teams above us.
The Jets signed 1 player who, IMO, helps them not at all.
Miami signed 1 player.
Have you looked at their losses, and potential losses?
The Jets lost their top RB on a team that cant throw. Miami lost Porter and possibly Taylor.
I havent even looked at what else they lost because its March.
Another way to look at it is the first week of FA belongs to the losers trying to strike it big. (Always has)
We have always chosen to spread money across the roster.
Im beginning to ramble and your question requires detail.
Essentially, my view of the Patriots is this:
-Starting in 2003-2004 the overall talent on the roster has steadily declined.
-That was inevitable because it would have taken 2 salary caps to afford all of our players when their contracts matured, or to replace them with equal talent.
-BB did, IMO, a tremendous job of hiding that for 4-5 years.
-He did that, IMO, by shifting the team from one that was solid at every position; able to dominate any teams weakness, and not be dominated by any teams strength. We did nothing the best of anyone, but did everything better than most. Over the ensuing years, he shifted to a team that was heavily talented at the top end, but had weaknesses that could be picked on by excellent teams, players and units.
-2006 masked it because the collapse in the 2nd half of the AFCC was thought to be a fluke
-2007 masked it because we did one thing so well, better than anyone ever had, that mediocrity in other areas wasn't noticed, until the SB.
-2008 masked it because it doesnt count if Brady is out.
-2009 put it in the spotlight.
We didnt degrade because we don't have good players. We didn't degrade because we suck at anything.
We degraded because our weakest areas were weaker than ever, and we could be dominated by the right players in the right scenarios. (Look back and there were hints each season, where 03-04 there were not)
What we lack is not a bunch of missing superstars. What we lack is the 'middle class'.
To simplify to the extreme, the worst 4 players (out of 22) you put on the field have a lot more to do with your success than the best 4 players.
You can extend that to say that really there are more like 30 players that have full time roles, and the guys between 18th and 30th best are the key to success.
What we need to do is to return to those routes. If we surround:
Brady
Moss
Welker
Mankins
Light and Vollmer
Wilfork
Warren
Mayo
TBC
Meriwhether
with players who can:
1) Trounce bad players
2) Beat average players
3) Not get dominated by great players
in other words, no worse than average or adequate,
we are back in Championship contention.
I listed 11 players above.
I would add
Maroney/Taylor/Morris (take your pick)
Koppen (I'll leave Neal out due to injuries)
Faulk
Butler
Kaczur (top backup OL)
Wright
Guyton
Sanders
as 8 more that certainly fit the description above.
That is 19 of the 30.
We also have:
Edelmen
Tate
Ornberger
Pryor
MCkenzie
Chung
Wilhite
Brace
as examples of guys who could fill in the rest of that 30.
IMO, the areas of need that most of us all agree upon only need to be filled by guys who fit that description of 'effective' like dozens of players on all of our Championship teams.
That is why I am patient about the tweaking that I think is necessary on this team.
I mean, we were a top 5 offense, and our defense was 5th in points allowed. Sure we can bemoan the imperfection of those ratings, but the bottom line is this:
When you look at those numbers and you consider points and yards gained and allowed, typically the favored metric, we were good enough to win the SB, but we fell short, well short for one critical reason:
We were bad in the clutch. That issue by itself separates this squad from 01,03,04 and even 07. Talent wise it was at least on a par.
But when it was time to make critical plays the 2009 oftentimes (and agaisnt the best competition) was at its worst, while the opposite of that statement was the heart and soul of the 01,03,04 teams.
When all is said and done, if you step back and analyze clutch play, it is blatantly obvious to me that clutch play in the NFL depends on the worst players on the field not the best ones. Plays are made when one player beats another, and when you are the highest level of competition, and at the most critical juncture game changing plays are usually made by the failure of one player in an 11 man unit not the superhuman play of one player in a group of 11.
Example: If you have one weak OL, it doesnt matter what the other 10 players do.
If you have one guy that cant cover, someone is always open.
Show me a team with an OL that is a terrible pass blocker or a DB that cant cover anyone, and I'll show you a team that fails in the clutch.
To wrap up this way too long post, my optimism is based upon the fact that I see us just as many players 'away' as you do, but I see those players needing to be adequate as part of the team concept, not superstars, meaning some are already here, and the resources we have to get the rest are sufficient.
This is why I deride the FA pursuit of high profile guys. Every one you sign ultimately creates 3 potential areas of weakness, because you have fewer resources to elevate bad to adequate. I will say for the 20th time in the last 3 days, show me one example of a team that used that approach and won big.
