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Stop compaining about the RB situation

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by xmarkd400x, Dec 20, 2007.

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  1. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    The goal of this post is to quiet the naysayers. Darren McFadden might be drafted top 5. He might be a special running back. The Patriots, in their infinite wisdom, will probably not draft him. The Patriots should not draft him.

    People on this board (judging by the amount of posts) seem to think that a great running back is the key to being a great team. This is just not true. Having a great quarterback is the key to being a great team.

    Don't believe me? Take a look at the facts. I looked up the top 20 individual rushing seasons. I got the name of 17 running backs (some RBs have 2 entries), most of whom enter the discussion of greatest ever. You have the likes of Dickerson, Sanders, Campbell, and Payton.

    I want to show that there is no correlation between being a great running back (and by extension having one on your team) and being successful. Among the 17 running backs who have an individual rushing effort in the top 20 all time, there are a combined 7 super bowl victories. They belong to Jamal Lewis (1), Terrell Davis (2), Walter Payton (1), and Emmitt Smith (3).

    What do all these running backs have in common? They were part of a great team, not the reason for it. Payton and Lewis had the benefit of two of the best defenses of all time, and Smith and Davis had the benefit of HOF quarterbacks. These running backs contributed greatly to their teams, but they were not the reason for success.

    Code:
          Player              Yards Year Team     Pick          SB Wins
    1. Eric Dickerson         2,105 1984 RAM     2nd overall	0
    2. Jamal Lewis            2,066 2003 BAL     5th overall	1
    3. Barry Sanders          2,053 1997 DET     3rd overall	0
    4. Terrell Davis          2,008 1998 DEN     6th ROUND	        2
    5. O.J. Simpson           2,003 1973 BUF     1 overall	        0
    6. Earl Campbell          1,934 1980 HOU     1st overall	0
    7. Ahman Green            1,883 2003 GNB     76 overall (R3)    0
    9. Shaun Alexander        1,880 2005 SEA     19 overall         0
    10. Jim Brown             1,863 1963 CLE     6 overall          0
    11. Tiki Barber           1,860 2005 NYG     2nd round          0
    12. Ricky Williams        1,853 2002 MIA     5th overall	0
    13. Walter Payton         1,852 1977 CHI     4th overall	1
    14. Jamal Anderson        1,846 1998 ATL     201 overall (R7)   0
    17. LaDainian Tomlinson   1,815 2006 SDG     5th overall	0
    19. Larry Johnson         1,789 2006 KAN     27th overall	0
    20. Emmitt Smith          1,773 1995 DAL     17th overall	3
    
    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rush_yds_career.htm?redir

    Great running backs do not make great teams. Great QBs and great defenses do.
  2. oldskool138

    oldskool138 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    *yawn* I'll continue to complain about anything that happens to bug me about the Pats. If everyone was in agreement, they there wouldn't be a need for a forum to discuss and debate.
  3. borg

    borg Rookie

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    Your premise is illconceived. If RB's "best year ever" is the criteria, then I assume you won't complain when I add QB's "best year ever" stats.
    Comparing stats, looks like big time RBs have accomplished more.

    http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/pass_yds_single_season.htm

    1. Dan Marino+ (23) 5,084 1984 MIA
    2. Kurt Warner (30) 4,830 2001 STL
    3. Dan Fouts+ (30) 4,802 1981 SDG
    4. Dan Marino+ (25) 4,746 1986 MIA
    5. Daunte Culpepper (27) 4,717 2004 MIN
    6. Dan Fouts+ (29) 4,715 1980 SDG
    7. Warren Moon+ (35) 4,690 1991 HOU
    8. Warren Moon+ (34) 4,689 1990 HOU
    Rich Gannon (37) 4,689 2002 OAK
    10. Neil Lomax (25) 4,614 1984 STL
    11. Trent Green (34) 4,591 2004 KAN
    12. Peyton Manning (28) 4,557 2004 IND
    13. Drew Bledsoe (22) 4,555 1994 NWE
    14. Lynn Dickey (34) 4,458 1983 GNB
    15. Dan Marino+ (33) 4,453 1994 MIA
    16. Steve Beuerlein (34) 4,436 1999 CAR
    17. Dan Marino+ (27) 4,434 1988 MIA
    18. Drew Brees (27) 4,418 2006 NOR
    19. Peyton Manning (24) 4,413 2000 IND
    Brett Favre (26) 4,413 1995 GNB
  4. MetalBleachers

    MetalBleachers Rookie

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    most are in agreement: At this point, Maroney is not the every-down back we thought he would be. He's not the explosive playmaker we thought he would be. He has not produced like the first-round, highly-touted pick most predicted (myself included).

    On the other hand, picking McFadden would be reactionary and ineffective considering the future (and present) needs on defense. Why pick a first-down back when the one picked last year hasn't panned out as expected? Better to try a defender (ILB or pass-rusher).

    So, I'll stop discussing the RB situation as soon as it's all set.
  5. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    True. I suppose I did accidentaly cherry pick my stats. :bricks: What is there, 4 super bowls among this group? (Manning, Bledsoe as a backup, Favre, Warner?)

    I wonder what stat correlates with SB wins. Perhaps a YPA for RBs vs. QBs? It is my preconcieved notion that great QBs can win a superbowl without a great RB, but a great RB cannot win winout at least a good QB.
  6. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So, the presumption is that because we have a great QB, that we don't need an upgrade at RB? Or is that we don't know how to draft running backs, so don't bother?

    BTW, I would expect the patriots to draft a CB, DE or OT if we pick in the top ten. If McFadden is even CLOSE to the value pick, I suspect that we will trade down. HOWEVER, make no mistake, this team would be made much better with the addition of a top level running back, which is why we used a 1st rounder to draft Maroney.
  7. onegameatatime

    onegameatatime Rookie

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    If the Pats do nothing at RB this offseason and have a healthy Maroney, Morris, and Faulk next season, I will be quite content.

    I'm looking for us to get younger and better at LB, better at CB, and re-sign Moss. Anything else is just icing on the cake IMHO.
  8. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    My opinion is that running backs are not with top-of-the-first-round tender. They have short careers and play a position where they are likely to have some kind of injury.
  9. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

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    Maroney -- inconsistent and not terribly durable
    Faulk -- outstanding in the shotgun. Inconsistent and not durable otherwise.
    Morris -- unproven durability
    Evans -- JAG as a ball-carrier

    Frankly, if we're going to go shotgun most of the time, we're set. If we go with a more conventional formation mix, however, I'd love to see a Barber type in here, and he'd be worth a late first round pick in value. (Of course, we don't have that absent a trade down, but I'm talking theory here.)
  10. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Interestingly, Football Outsiders has Maroney with the 2nd best Success Rate in the entire league (and the 8th best overall RB) - I agree with them that he is consistent in getting what we need, although I am VERY surprised he's not producing more big plays to go along with it.

    Anyway, I am 100% fine with our RB situation as long as no-one else gets hurt. With the loss of Morris, though, we are thin with our depth.
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sure, we're fine as long as everyone is healthy. Otherwise we are unlucky, and we whine.
  12. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    I agree with the premise of the thread...RB is an overrated position in some ways. For all the bytching and moaning about Maroney, if he got 20+ carries a game, he'd probably rush for 85-95 yards a game, making him a "premiere back".

    Is he any different of a running back simply b/c he's not getting those carries and there's no need for him to be that guy on this team (at this point in time)?
  13. ClevTrev

    ClevTrev Rookie

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    I think you're on the right track. If you were to list all the RBs taken in the first round over the past 20 years and map those guys to Super Bowl wins, it would give you a good idea of how one who is thought of as a premier RB correlates to SB wins. That's really the statistic that will show that while many RBs have had big roles in SB wins, not all were highly touted 1st rounders coming out of college (Roger Craig, 2nd round) and some 1st rounders (Antowain Smith) won Super Bowls after their careers were on the downhill with teams that didn't originally draft them.

    How many Super Bowls will Reggie Bush have in 10 years?

    If I get some time, I'll try and run this correlation.

    Edit: words out of order corrected.
    Last edited: Dec 20, 2007
  14. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Why did this need yet another thread?
  15. xmarkd400x

    xmarkd400x Rookie

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    Thanks for the bump =)
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