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State of the Patriots ~ 03/25/18


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How's Bill The Mad (Genius) doing so far??


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So how do we think we're doing, so far? I've got a few thoughts:

01 ~ I love the fact that Mad Bill has held his fire in Free Agency. There're some exceptions to that, to be sure, and some moves that I would've made...But when it comes to Free Agency, I'd much prefer to see less moves than more. Others'll disagree with my perspective on this, but I believe that building through The Draft is 1000 times more effective, and that history agrees.

02 ~ Mad Bill has already made more mistakes than I can count, this off season. I refer, of course, to the fact that there've been dozens of Free Agents out there, and dozens of our own players to make decisions on, and not once has he called me to seek my wisdom. Inexplicable.
icon_shrug.gif


03 ~ But he's nevertheless managed to plot a wise course. He's had the balls and discipline to steer clear of the madness of Free Agency, and somehow managed to find bargains despite a bloated market. That affords optimal flexibility not only this year, but in the years to come.

04 ~ Left Tackle is in a terrifying spot, because Matthew Tobin cannot play Left Tackle...But while I do not trust LaAdrian Waddle to stay healthy, I do believe that, despite his poor play last year, his fundamental athleticism and, far more so, his WingSpan, is sufficient to develop into an adequate, potentially an exceptional Left Tackle, which is obviously a precious and rare commodity. Coach Scarnecchia just might transform this guy into the year's greatest Free Agent bargain.

05 ~ Amazingly, Offense seems, otherwise, locked and loaded!! :eek: Sure, we could always stand more Depth of Talent anywhere, especially at PowerBack...But we're remarkably deep for March.

06 ~ I do not know if anyone else believes that the Defensive outlook has changed even one tenth as dramatically as I do. There is simply no model, mathematical or otherwise, to extrapolate the potentially enormous and indeed exponential impact of embedding a Trench Gorilla of Danny Shelton's skills into our Defensive Line next to Malcom Brown, and of further strengthening our Front 6 with Adrian Clayborn. The combined effect of these two moves could be amazing.

07 ~ Brown, toiling away in The Trenches without any top caliber help, was a man on an island. But with Shelton next to'm on Double Bear Downs or sharing the Snap Load on Single Bear Downs, the effect they will potentially have on each other's Games is far more than the some of the parts: Shelton's addition doesn't sure up a weakness. It transforms it into a gigantic strength.

08 ~ Ditto, the addition of Clayborn: The sum of his potential impact is greater than the sum of one part in his case: Lion is my term for guys at about 6.4 or 6.5 and about 300 pounds who profile as Defensive Ends in a 3 man front and Defensive Tackles in a 4 man front. Before signing Clayborn, that was a weakness, with only Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler...now we're suddenly deep. The rotational possibilities, allowing guys to play at a higher level because they're not worn out, and enabling guys to sustain themselves against the injuries that excessive wear and tear cause, are immense. They significantly increase our chances both of efficacy and of lasting health. That's precisely the formula that the 2013 SeaHawks used for their Front 7: historic greatness.

09 ~ The ripple effect on the rest of the Defense is Part III of the sum of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts: A deeper, more talented interior defensive line, combined with a deeper, more talented Line/Edge crew ~ Clayborn is instantly the best of them, of course ~ enables the Dragons and Bandits ~ the Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy types, respectively ~ to cut loose more: reduce responsibilities that compensate for a shaky line, and attack...And this in turn, combined with enormous improvement in front of them, drastically increases the pressure on the opponent's Offense...to the enormous advantage of our MidFielders and above all of our Secondary.

10 ~ Getting McCourty to replace Butler is about a Push, and I'd always like to get more MidFielders, of course...But as far as the scheme that Mad Bill plays ~ and this amazes me even before I write it, though it really shouldn't, after years of watching Mad Bill operate ~ we're already set. :eek:

I'm always in pursuit of more Depth of Talent everywhere, but my list of Draft needs?

01 ~ Left Tackle.

That is all. :eek:
 
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It is not a great offseason because losing your starting OT is always a bit concerning. The problem is that the mistake was not made this year because paying him what the Giants offered was just silly. Reiss said it right in today's column when he was wondering if the Pats should not have extended him 2 years ago for longer giving up a bit more money but solidifying the LT position for a long time. He looked at how the Colts got Costanzo done for 4 years at what now is a bargain.

That being said it always requires two to dance so this might have been just a brilliant move by Solder's agent who looked at the rising cap and at which tackles would be available 2018 and designed an amazing situation for himself and Solder.

Apart from that I think the trade for Shelton is a vintage BB genius move. Similarly getting JMac (for peanuts) and signing Clayborn -- who projects to fit in nicely -- are classic Patriots offseason moves.

I am curious if Corderelle's role will extend beyond ST. I would not bet on it but McD usually is pretty creative so who knows.

All in all it really is a good offseason so far. Taking care of Brady and resolving the Gronk situation could move it into great territory despite the loss of Solder.
 
So how do we think we're doing, so far? I've got a few thoughts:

01 ~ I love the fact that Mad Bill has held his fire in Free Agency. There're some exceptions to that, to be sure, and some moves that I would've made...But when it comes to Free Agency, I'd much prefer to see less moves than more. Others'll disagree with my perspective on this, but I believe that building through The Draft is 1000 times more effective, and that history agrees.

02 ~ Mad Bill has already made more mistakes than I can count, this off season. I refer, of course, to the fact that there've been dozens of Free Agents out there, and dozens of our own players to make decisions on, and not once has he called me to seek my wisdom. Inexplicable.
icon_shrug.gif


03 ~ But he's nevertheless managed to plot a wise course. He's had the balls and discipline to steer clear of the madness of Free Agency, and somehow managed to find bargains despite a bloated market. That affords optimal flexibility not only this year, but in the years to come.

04 ~ Left Tackle is in a terrifying spot, because Matthew Tobin cannot play Left Tackle...But while I do not trust LaAdrian Waddle to stay healthy, I do believe that, despite his poor play last year, his fundamental athleticism and, far more so, his WingSpan, is sufficient to develop into an adequate, potentially an exceptional Left Tackle, which is obviously a precious and rare commodity. Coach Scarnecchia just might transform this guy into the year's greatest Free Agent bargain.

05 ~ Amazingly, Offense seems, otherwise, locked and loaded!! :eek: Sure, we could always stand more Depth of Talent anywhere, especially at PowerBack...But we're remarkably deep for March.

06 ~ I do not know if anyone else believes that the Defensive outlook has changed even one tenth as dramatically as I do. There is simply no model, mathematical or otherwise, to extrapolate the potentially enormous and indeed exponential impact of embedding a Trench Gorilla of Danny Shelton's skills into our Defensive Line next to Malcom Brown, and of further strengthening our Front 6 with Adrian Clayborn. The combined effect of these two moves could be amazing.

07 ~ Brown, toiling away in The Trenches without any top caliber help was a man on an island. But with Shelton next to'm on Double Bear Downs or sharing the Snap Load on Single Bear Downs, the effect they will potentially have on each other's Games is far more than the some of the parts: Shelton's addition doesn't sure up a weakness. It transforms it into a gigantic strength.

08 ~ Ditto, the addition of Clayborn: The sum of his potential impact is greater than the sum of one part in his case: Lion is my term for guys at about 6.4 or 6.5 and about 300 pounds who profile as Defensive Ends in a 3 man front and Defensive Tackles in a 4 man front. Before signing Clayborn, that was a weakness, with only Lawrence Guy and Adam Butler...now we're suddenly deep. The rotational possibilities, allowing guys to play at a higher level because they're not worn out, and enabling guys to sustain themselves against the injuries that excessive wear and tear cause, are immense. They significantly increase our chances both of efficacy and of lasting health. That's precisely the formula that the 2013 SeaHawks used for their Front 7: historic greatness.

09 ~ The ripple effect on the rest of the Defense is Part III of the sum of the whole being greater than the sum of the parts: A deeper, more talented interior defensive line, combined with a deeper, more talented Line/Edge crew ~ Clayborn is instantly the best of them, of course ~ enables the Dragons and Bandits ~ the Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy types, respectively ~ to cut loose more: reduce responsibilities that compensate for a shaky line, and attack...And this in turn, combined with enormous improvement in front of them, drastically increases the pressure on the opponent's Offense...to the enormous advantage of our MidFielders and above all of our Secondary.

10 ~ Getting McCourty to replace Butler is about a Push, and I'd always like to get more MidFielders, of course...But as far as the scheme that Mad Bill plays ~ and this amazes me even before I write it, though it really shouldn't, after years of watching Mad Bill operate ~ we're already set. :eek:

I'm always in pursuit of more Depth of Talent everywhere, but my list of Draft needs?

01 ~ Left Tackle.

That is all. :eek:
Good post.

Disgree with your opinion on Waddle's play. He's certainly not a cornerstone OT but for the situation he played pretty well last year.
 
Left tackle for sure. I hope we add a LB and safety. Although, there are a couple on the practice squad that might work.
 
It is not a great offseason because losing your starting OT is always a bit concerning. The problem is that the mistake was not made this year because paying him what the Giants offered was just silly. Reiss said it right in today's column when he was wondering if the Pats should not have extended him 2 years ago for longer giving up a bit more money but solidifying the LT position for a long time. He looked at how the Colts got Costanzo done for 4 years at what now is a bargain.

That being said it always requires two to dance so this might have been just a brilliant move by Solder's agent who looked at the rising cap and at which tackles would be available 2018 and designed an amazing situation for himself and Solder.

Apart from that I think the trade for Shelton is a vintage BB genius move. Similarly getting JMac (for peanuts) and signing Clayborn -- who projects to fit in nicely -- are classic Patriots offseason moves.

I am curious if Corderelle's role will extend beyond ST. I would not bet on it but McD usually is pretty creative so who knows.

All in all it really is a good offseason so far. Taking care of Brady and resolving the Gronk situation could move it into great territory despite the loss of Solder.
Like all of these "what ifs" if the team paid Nate a 4y/45m deal, how much cap space would they have this year to upgrade the roster?

They are sitting at ~$9m in space right now. More than enough to sign picks and add a decent player via trading a pick.

They also might be thinking about extending a young player thus using space this year to accomplish that.
 
Any look at the off-season has to account for the return of both Edelman and Hightower. I too would have liked to seen Solder re-signed. At least BB did retain Waddle. There was no way Butler was coming back, so that was expected after the Super Bowl. Shelton for Branch is a wash, Clayborn is an upgrade over anyone. The secondary, aside from Gillmore, is still horrible. I doubt seriously adding another McCourty is going to help. The Pats defense plays best when they have a top notch safety, and they have none. The only real upgrade possible now, would be to trade for Thomas from the Seahawks, but that is not going to happen.

Now Harmon will most likely be facing a suspension of some sort, which would normally not be a big loss, but being that his replacement is gong to be Richards, that is scary!

I don't think the Pats have enough draft capital to fix this, especially since they are most likely going to waste yet another high round pick on a back-up QB.
 
Like all of these "what ifs" if the team paid Nate a 4y/45m deal, how much cap space would they have this year to upgrade the roster?

They are sitting at ~$9m in space right now. More than enough to sign picks and add a decent player via trading a pick.

They also might be thinking about extending a young player thus using space this year to accomplish that.

According to reports they were ready to offer up to 13m this year. So I dont really see cap space as any argument. Especially because contracts can easily be designed around it. Not to mention the absurd amount we had last year.

Cap space will never be an issue for a team that BB is running. The roster is designed too well for that from a financial perspective. It always is about the internal evaluation of how much a player is worth relative to the overall cap number.
 
Any look at the off-season has to account for the return of both Edelman and Hightower. I too would have liked to seen Solder re-signed. At least BB did retain Waddle. There was no way Butler was coming back, so that was expected after the Super Bowl. Shelton for Branch is a wash, Clayborn is an upgrade over anyone. The secondary, aside from Gillmore, is still horrible. I doubt seriously adding another McCourty is going to help. The Pats defense plays best when they have a top notch safety, and they have none. The only real upgrade possible now, would be to trade for Thomas from the Seahawks, but that is not going to happen.

Now Harmon will most likely be facing a suspension of some sort, which would normally not be a big loss, but being that his replacement is gong to be Richards, that is scary!

I don't think the Pats have enough draft capital to fix this, especially since they are most likely going to waste yet another high round pick on a back-up QB.
Too pessimistic

Sheldon > 2017 Branch

The secondary was average last year- not horrible. Malcolm was slightly better than ave last year. Jason is a CB2/3 and was playing well before his high ankle sprain. The pass rush would have helped.

DMC, Chung are above average and were last year.

Harmon is TBD. If it's his 1st offense nothing will happen
 
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It is not a great offseason because losing your starting OT is always a bit concerning. The problem is that the mistake was not made this year because paying him what the Giants offered was just silly. Reiss said it right in today's column when he was wondering if the Pats should not have extended him 2 years ago for longer giving up a bit more money but solidifying the LT position for a long time. He looked at how the Colts got Costanzo done for 4 years at what now is a bargain.

That being said it always requires two to dance so this might have been just a brilliant move by Solder's agent who looked at the rising cap and at which tackles would be available 2018 and designed an amazing situation for himself and Solder.

Good stuff, Brother Luuked.

Me, I've been looking to replace Solder for years...But the guys that I keep drafting to try to replace'm with all kinda...suck...maybe Coach Dante could've saved'm?? :oops:

* Addendum: I think signing Solder would've been courting disaster, because I consider him to be a high and increasing Injury Risk at that towering height...and because I have enormous doubts about his commitment, going forward, no disrespect to his excellent character.
 
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According to reports they were ready to offer up to 13m this year. So I dont really see cap space as any argument. Especially because contracts can easily be designed around it. Not to mention the absurd amount we had last year.

Cap space will never be an issue for a team that BB is running. The roster is designed too well for that from a financial perspective. It always is about the internal evaluation of how much a player is worth relative to the overall cap number.
I don't know how you can say cap space is not an issue. For BB everything he does is based on cap space.

Yes- they did have a lot last year and they chewed through it pretty quickly.

As for Nate's $13m rumor it's all about the structure.
 
Any look at the off-season has to account for the return of both Edelman and Hightower. I too would have liked to seen Solder re-signed. At least BB did retain Waddle. There was no way Butler was coming back, so that was expected after the Super Bowl. Shelton for Branch is a wash, Clayborn is an upgrade over anyone. The secondary, aside from Gillmore, is still horrible. I doubt seriously adding another McCourty is going to help. The Pats defense plays best when they have a top notch safety, and they have none. The only real upgrade possible now, would be to trade for Thomas from the Seahawks, but that is not going to happen.

Now Harmon will most likely be facing a suspension of some sort, which would normally not be a big loss, but being that his replacement is gong to be Richards, that is scary!

I don't think the Pats have enough draft capital to fix this, especially since they are most likely going to waste yet another high round pick on a back-up QB.

Stop trolling.

Branch could not even get on the field last year and single-handedly lost us the SB with that. Saying Shelton is a wash is the highest degree of ********.

We have one of the best secondaries in the league and a particularly good safety duo. Sucks that your prejudice against certain types of players makes you competely inept at evaluating them.

Harmon will not face any suspension unless he has been -- unknown to everyone -- already a few steps deep in the NFL substance abuse program. In fact without a positive test not even that is certain.

But please keep repeating this nonsense the same way you kept repeating your fairy tales about comp picks this year.
 
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Good post.

Disgree with your opinion on Waddle's play. He's certainly not a cornerstone OT but for the situation he played pretty well last year.

Uhh...Just to be clear to anyone reading this who didn't read mine: I do not in a thousand years consider Waddle a "cornerstone OT"...just one with potential. :eek:

I assume that you were referring to my assessment of how he played last year.

Thank you, by the way. :D
 
I don't see Clayborn at 6'3 280 as a DE/DT type lumped in with Guy and Butler, but rather as a Trey Flowers type whose size translates purely as a 4 man DE (too big to stand up because there's no real threat of playing coverage). But perhaps like Flowers, he can do some damage from the DT spot, just only in pass rush situations. It's worth noting (and this has been mentioned plenty of times) that he almost exclusively lines up as a right defensive end.
 
It sounds like Antonio Garcia was the contingency plan for Solder last year. I don't know where he is physically after this blood clot issue, but I believe he had most of the preseason so maybe he isn't a true rookie despite not playing a regular season game.

I didn't study him in the preseason, so really no clue what is known of him other than the injury. If he showed promise, then Waddle and he would not seem to be a bad combo for now (color me in the "not that heartbroken with Solder's departure" department after watching years of Brady almost getting decapitated by speed rushers that Solder whiffed on - Solder was not Matt Light).

With that said, you can never go wrong with drafting a good left tackle.
 
Uhh...Just to be clear to anyone reading this who didn't read mine: I do not in a thousand years consider Waddle a "cornerstone OT"...just one with potential. :eek:

I assume that you were referring to my assessment of how he played last year.

Thank you, by the way. :D
I know. You had said Waddle played poorly last year and I respectfully do not agree with you. He did ok.

With that said he better not be starting 16 games...
 
I don't know how you can say cap space is not an issue. For BB everything he does is based on cap space.

Yes- they did have a lot last year and they chewed through it pretty quickly.

As for Nate's $13m rumor it's all about the structure.

That is exactly my point. The roster is so well designed that there are no constraints that limit us from signing whoever we want if the value is there. There are no toxic contracts or players that we have to string along for their dead cap hit.

There is a reason BB is among the best GMs since the salary cap came into existence. And unless you have unexpected things happening (e.g. Hernandez murdering people) there is a lot of flexibility to get things done as long as there is value.

The driver for BB's entire philosophy is value and not trying to get everyone as cheap as possible. They would sign a player for 20m APY if they determined internally that his impact would be huge enough to warrant that number.
 
I know. You had said Waddle played poorly last year and I respectfully do not agree with you. He did ok.

With that said he better not be starting 16 games...

I certainly wouldn't want to count on it. But while you give'm a higher grade than I do for last year's play, it seems I give'm a higher grade than you for'is potential...Then again: There's good reason to suspect that I suck at evaluating Left Tackles. :eek:
 
I certainly wouldn't want to count on it. But while you give'm a higher grade than I do for last year's play, it seems I give'm a higher grade than you for'is potential...Then again: There's good reason to suspect that I suck at evaluating Left Tackles. :eek:
I hate the word "potential". He has good size and good feet but I think he is what he is at this point. He can start a few game for you but hes not going to dominate.

With that said if this team can win Super Bowls win Brandon freaking Gorin at RT then they can do anything
 
I don't see Clayborn at 6'3 280 as a DE/DT type lumped in with Guy and Butler, but rather as a Trey Flowers type whose size translates purely as a 4 man DE (too big to stand up because there's no real threat of playing coverage). But perhaps like Flowers, he can do some damage from the DT spot, just only in pass rush situations. It's worth noting (and this has been mentioned plenty of times) that he almost exclusively lines up as a right defensive end.

That's fair. I'm actually toying with the idea of introducing yet another new term this year ~ Tiger ~ to describe players like Clayborn who're too big to be considered a Dragon like Flowers but too small to be considered a Lion like Guy or Butler.

I was rounding up, you see. Trying to simplify things. ;)
 
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