my 2 cents worth...
on first glance it is hard not to think that KC (Pioli) got the better end of the deal. Then again - with the Pats cap situation as it was - they sooner they moved Matt, the better. Now they can use the money to chase some decent FA's instead of just bottom of the barrel JAG's. Or contract extentions to Wilfork, or any of a number of core players whose contracts are up next year.
So Pats 'backs were against the wall' which means they could not get more than they gave in this deal. Remember, it is not just the player for picks exchange - it is the $$ the other team will have to shell out for Cassell - probably 10-14 mill per year for many years. With very little tape on him as he didn't play at USC. Yes he looked great this year (and ONLY this year) but then again the Pats have away of making the players better than they are. (the whole is greater than the sum of the parts).
IF PATS HAD GOTTEN A BETTER OFFER - THEY WOULD HAVE TAKEN IT.
Sorry to scream but I can't stress the last sentence enough. The time to move Cassell was NOW. You can't just expect him to be traded (for a good trade) in training camp. It is not just enough that another team wants him - it is also that another team can AFFORD him under their cap for the next 4-6 years. An in a few weeks most teams probably would have tied up most of their cap space (minus draft rookie pool).
Obviously, the Vrable throw in makes it quite confusing. BB has always shown great respect for his players - cutting Vets early in TC so they could possibly sign with another team and so on....
So there must be much more to the Vrable situation than meets the eye. He certainly didn't look last season like the Vrable of former days. And BB sees him every day in practice and knows (any) medical situation as well. So I will trust BB on this......If he was going to be a cap casualty - better to send him to a non-divisional competitor as a goodwill gesture while he makes the final 4 million on his last remaining year on his contract.
Now that is one less (starting) OLB for Pats in 2009. BUT:
1) Pats have some young bodies there (Woods, Crable, Vince Redd, TBC is back and also Guyton is a possibility). Pats Fans - we all know that non of them is as good as a declining Vrable. Granted. BUT these young guys are NOT going to get any better sitting on the bench. Just look at Cassell - he improved by PLAYING on Sundays. Not as much by just practicing the last 4 years (see pre-season 2008 game tape).
2) This should be a pretty good to great draft for OLB and DE tweeners. As more and more teams start transitioning to 3-4 defenses, better to get some of those players NOW.
3) Pats are now loaded with first day picks. Yes - I would have loved to get a 1st rounder for Cassell (Vrable). But not any later round picks (say 4th for Vrable or such which won't make the team and just end up on another teams (Clevelands) practice squad. So better to get as high a pick as possible instead (#34) instead of a 3rd and a 4th. If another team had offered more than the 34th pick - BB would have taken it!
How does the draft round chosen matter. It was just stated recently in one of the national writers how most of the Pro Bowl players were from 1st or 2nd rounds (duh!). Plus the following:
Team-by-team analysis: Judging without grades - NFL - CBSSports.com Football
I did a 10-year study on the draft to judge the success rate of players selected in each round. I defined a successful player as one who is starting four years after being drafted. Four years gives him a chance to prove himself, and if you are not starting after four years you will probably be replaced on the roster. The results were as follows:
Round 1 -- 75 percent
Round 2 -- 50 percent
Round 3 -- 30 percent
Round 4 -- 25 percent
Round 5 -- 20 percent
Round 6 -- 9 percent
Round 7 -- 9 percent
Summary: while the trade is more of a benefit to KC than to NE - it was a necessary evil for Pats to move Cassel as early as possible and the extra cap space plus pick #34 for a former 7th rounder is a blessing. Vrable (thanks for the good times) was declining and not exactly cheap at $4 Mill a year. It gives playing time for growth of our OLB core and hopefully Mike will be replaced at OLB at pick # 23 (Matthews?) or at # 34 (Connor Barwin?).
P.S. Don't worry - be Happy!
