SB51 Review: Did Malcolm Butler play himself out of a big contract with NE?

[PatsBoy12]

Yea I think BB wanted WW but because of his age wasn't willing to go to the next level to try and keep him.

Not sure if the drop hurt WW in contract dealings. No evidence to support it but I have suspicions.

With that said I think DAs clutchness only helps him in trying to keep his job w NE and BB

I think it worked out fine for the Pats anyway. WW was not right after the 2013 season, though I'm sure Manning throwing him into traffic didn't help matters.

 

[patfanken]

Thank you Ice for this informative analysis. A much better alternative from the usual over reactions one way or the other. It has made for a very interesting thread. Here are a few of my own thoughts on the various subject in the discussion.

1. I never thought of Butler as the epitome of a "true #1 CB" in the Revis/Talib mold who locks down one side of the field. Just like the Pats don't usually flop their S's into true SS/FS modes, they use their CB's the same way so their D is always flexible. That is why Butler/Ryan/Rowe were all used both in the slot and outside depending on what the game plan and match ups they wanted. Teams couldn't depend on knowing where the Pats would line up presnap

That is a big part of the Pats defensive philosophy. Which is much as possible, never give the offense what they expect. And that is why we might see Butler on one receiver for most of the time but not ALL of the time.

2. Very interesting and entertaining discussion on whether or not Butler got his foot stepped on. But in one sense its a waste of time. The fact is, in a league where bad offenses are completing 60% of their passes, and the good ones close to 70%,; its pretty clear that DB's are getting beat.....a LOT. So whether Butler got beat on THAT particular play isn't important in the great scheme of things. It happens.

The point being Butler isn't being judged on a single play or a single game for that matter. I think Samuel was let go because they determined he couldn't play man, was more effective in a zone, and took too many chances, to be worth the money he wanted. This didn't make him a bad CB, just one that wasn't good enough to make elite CB money at the time. The Eagles gave him that money and later regretted it.

3. The same goes for Butler. He is what he is, and the Pats know what they have. That's why I hope and think they are going to keep him for this season (at least). Our DL/LB situation has a lot of questions right now, so it makes it more critical that we make the backend even stronger than last season (especially given the QB's we will see). Ealy and Guy have to viewed as a downgrade from Long and Sheard, at least right now. Having the best and deepest secondary in the league (JMHO) will go a long way to overcome any potential deficiencies in the front 7.

4. I wonder about all the talk about Butler's dissatisfaction with the contract process, and the possibilities he'll hold out or be a locker room problem, are just media driven. The mediots are projecting those feelings on him because as selfish and self centered people that is how THEY would feel.

I don't think Butler is going to begrudge Gilmore his money. Players usually contratulate team mates who hit it big, not pout. It's an enviroment where players are always happy for their teammates successes.

Butler, from his ACTUAL comments, seems to understand how RFA works, better than the media who covers it and SHOULD know better. Gilmore waited 5 years to get his payday and Butler knows he will get his chance next year. Why would he feel resentment against Gilmore? He wouldn't

5. I think its only speculation whether the agent is an impediment to any negotiations, or whether or not the Pats are actively seeking to extend him. The Pats simply have no reason to initiate any such talks, and we don't know if the agent even knew the onus was on him. From all indications the guy is a competent lawyer, just not an experienced agent

I think we all would be happy if Butler is extended and can get a well deserved pay day. But the fact is he's only been in the league 3 years, and when he signs the tender, $4MM is a still a pretty good payday. BTW- that's $77,000/wk, or $250,000/16 game checks. So there is no need to throw Malcolm a testimonial, he's doing OK. I think sometime we lose perception on just how MUCH these guys are making.

6. Also for those who might complain about Butler's situation. What about Andrews and Mason Those guys are watching a lot of offensive lineman make a LOT of money, while they will be making $600,000 and 700,000 this season. And NONE of the guys making the big dough ever started on a championship team that went 17.2. Where is the outrage over that? There isn't any and there shouldn't be, because THAT is the system they all play under. That's why I think most of the drama about Butler is media driven, just because it's an interesting narrative.

BOTTOM LINE - Right now I only care about THIS year. And this year we are best served by having Malcom Butler on the team. According to Miguel, after all we have already done, the Pats have $35MM left to spend. That's a lot of space to possibily work out something for Malcolm. But, if Malcom wants to be paid more than the RFA tag, he's going to have to give back something on the back end. Otherwise he is going to have to "wait until next year".

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

GREAT post, Ken. Agree 100% on your Asante take.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

Malcolm is in a bad position -- unfortunately for him he's paid like a undrafted player and has performed like a top 15 CB

Maybe he could get offers like 5 years, 50 million I doubt he'll get much more given a team has to give up a 1st round pick.

Malcolm's best play is probably just to sign a 1 year deal with the Pats -- make his 4m. Get tagged following year -- make 15 million, and then sign elsewhere for 5 years 80 million.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Butler may have had a bad game or two in the playoffs but at the end for the day, he gives us a better chance to win this year than any CB in this draft.

His agent's inexperience is giving bb fits, but I feel pretty confident bb will find a workable solution. And I am willing to bet it involves butler being on our team for 2017.

 

[robbomango]

He stepped on Butler's foot. The pics you posted aren't the right frames or the right angle. See this thread:

That "ankle breaking" juke on Butler? He stepped on Butler's foot

In particular look at post 5 where I locked in on the relevant frames. I was skeptical at first, too, until I saw that camera angle slowed down. Here's the three frames clearly showing him step on Butler's left foot. It is impossible to see in real-time from the angle shown in the game:

That said, Butler definitely gets burned on go routes when he is covering a fast x-receiver. That's why we don't typically have him cover such people by himself, he needs safety help over the top. He's very good at covering the slot receiver 1 on 1, though. Gabriel was a "no-name", but a no-name that ran a 4.27 40-yard dash on his pro day (wind at his back, but still--Butler has always had trouble with guys with raw top-end speed).

We hashed this crap out quite a bit before the Steelers game:
Do you trust Butler to take on Antonio Brown? And if not, what adjustments do you make in coverage?

I believe there should be a drop shadow over Malcolm's foot in frame 2 and 3 if he's being stepped on. Instead the light is still hitting the top of his foot, It looks to be in front, imo.

 

[robbomango]

The Great Juke Caper lol

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Malcolm is in a bad position -- unfortunately for him he's paid like a undrafted player and has performed like a top 15 CB

Maybe he could get offers like 5 years, 50 million I doubt he'll get much more given a team has to give up a 1st round pick.

Malcolm's best play is probably just to sign a 1 year deal with the Pats -- make his 4m. Get tagged following year -- make 15 million, and then sign elsewhere for 5 years 80 million.

A 5-year, 80 million dollar contract at age 29???? You really think so?

 

[neuronet]

I'm starting to think the "did he step on his foot or not" is sort of like the blue dress/gold dress thing. My bet is Butler would answer honestly if asked. Let's call him now. His number is 555-1231

 

[n6249c]

Thank you Ice everybody for this informative analysis. A much better alternative from the usual over reactions one way or the other. It has made for a very interesting thread. Here are a few of my own thoughts on the various subject in the discussion.

[...]

4. I wonder about all the talk about Butler's dissatisfaction with the contract process, and the possibilities he'll hold out or be a locker room problem, are just media driven. The mediots are projecting those feelings on him because as selfish and self centered people that is how THEY would feel.

I don't think Butler is going to begrudge Gilmore his money. Players usually contratulate team mates who hit it big, not pout. It's an enviroment where players are always happy for their teammates successes.

Butler, from his ACTUAL comments, seems to understand how RFA works, better than the media who covers it and SHOULD know better. Gilmore waited 5 years to get his payday and Butler knows he will get his chance next year. Why would he feel resentment against Gilmore? He wouldn't

5. I think its only speculation whether the agent is an impediment to any negotiations, or whether or not the Pats are actively seeking to extend him. The Pats simply have no reason to initiate any such talks, and we don't know if the agent even knew the onus was on him. From all indications the guy is a competent lawyer, just not an experienced agent

I think we all would be happy if Butler is extended and can get a well deserved pay day. But the fact is he's only been in the league 3 years, and when he signs the tender, $4MM is a still a pretty good payday. BTW- that's $77,000/wk, or $250,000/16 game checks. So there is no need to throw Malcolm a testimonial, he's doing OK. I think sometime we lose perception on just how MUCH these guys are making.

[...]

BOTTOM LINE - Right now I only care about THIS year. And this year we are best served by having Malcom Butler on the team. According to Miguel, after all we have already done, the Pats have $35MM left to spend. That's a lot of space to possibily work out something for Malcolm. But, if Malcom wants to be paid more than the RFA tag, he's going to have to give back something on the back end. Otherwise he is going to have to "wait until next year".

Lots of good insights, Ken, as always.

Agree entirely with your comments about projections from the peanut gallery, that seem unsubstantiated by actual evidence. Think that also goes for the comments bashing his agent. Seems to me there is a lot of dissatisfaction about not having him locked up in s long term extension, which at this point would only be possible on team friendly terms. So somebody must be to blame, and his inexperienced agent is an easy scapegoat.

But consider this. The Pats often take the approach of letting the market decide (viz, Hightower). If they and the player were both taking such an approach, how would anything be different than it is today?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just to clarify, the play where he fell down was not the entire focus of my post. He just did not play a good game and was arguably the weakest point of the team's entire defense. I'm not saying the Patriots had a long term deal worked out for him and then ripped it up the moment he fell to the turf. One might just say he just had a bad game, while others might say he was somewhat exposed against a "Super Offense" and showed the Patriots do not have a true elite corner necessary to beat, for example: an Aaron Rodgers offense, a Pittsburgh offense with Brown, Bryant, Bell, and Green all healthy, etc. We are all happy with the opportune plays by the defense in the SB, but Atlanta only had the ball for like 33 plays. Last take is this, to simplify my point: he certainly didn't help his case as a rare player who gets extended early with the Patriots, as they reserve those contracts only for truly elite players, and sometimes even those guys don't get them. If there were any chance the Patriots were planning on giving him Gilmore money, I can't imagine that SB51 made them feel reassured that he should be the highest paid player on the team besides Brady. That's all.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

So you put in quotation marks something I didn't say the way you quoted it? And ignore the rest of the post to boot? The premise of the post was not that we won the game. That part was like icing. The premise of the quote is Gabriel did very little of actual consequence all game. In fact, his only other "big" play besides the one being discussed in this thread was an 18-yarder in zone coverage. So pointing to one play in man, albeit he really did beat Butler, and painting the picture that Butler had a bad game is irresponsible... and we won.

My apologies. I did not mean to attribute that quote to you...it was more of a general theme that I've found many subscribe to, and I thought you were alluding to the idea that since we won the game, all is well. We also trailed 28-3 and put ourselves in position where the previous 93 postseason teams have lost after trailing by that much entering the fourth quarter. Brady's superhuman will and some terrible calls by Atlanta helped us pull off a miracle...that does not mean we can expect the same results without re-evaluating the players that led to a huge, unexpected collapse through three quarters.

Regarding the rest of your post, I've said a few times, though not directly in response to you, that this wasn't just about the Gabriel play - and I stand corrected if indeed this was due to a trip and bad luck..I just know he looked burned on that play as well, totally faked out regardless. If you go back and watch the game, you'll see that Butler was way off his game regardless of the receiver.

 

[TennisBallHead]

I love it. One bad game and he's played himself out of a contract (didn't stop Happy Gilmore from getting 14 mil per year, though, and with no experience in this system).

Let's also ship Brady out. He's had a rating under 80 in thirteen of his playoff games.

 

[kennyb]

A 5-year, 80 million dollar contract at age 29???? You really think so?

I know, the homers here are something. He'll average more than revis made in his prime. Very reasonable.

Bottom line, butler is a try hard guy, but he isnt that good. He thinks he's due a huge contract, but even if he were an ufa, he wouldnt get it. Logan ryan money maybe. He'll play for a year then be set free. No franchise tag, he's not worth the risk.
I hope they bench his delusional malcontent self to hurt his marketability further.

 

[TennisBallHead]

And what was Butler's agent thinking, not taking that silly lowball offer the Pats gave?

 

[patfanken]

A couple of points.

1. Mike Reiss had a great take in his blog about why there isn't a big push for Hightower this FA season. He's heard from a few of his sources that Hightower's skills don't necessarily translate to a lot of defensive systems.

And that makes sense. To me Hightower's greatest assts are his versatility and being able to seamlessly morph each week into whatever defense Patricia has dreamed up and help his teammates do the same. But in a league that is more and more going to speed in the middle, a 270lb MLB at $12MM.yr doesn't seem to be a good fit. Some teams want him because he IS a good player, but the fact is, his production numbers and snap counts, simply don't match what you want in a top dollar FA

It goes back to what I've been saying, which is Hightower is probably more valuable to the the Pats that he is to most teams. Of course that doesn't mean that some team with a lot cap space might be willing to overpay a bit to make a statement to their fans for a guy who might not be worth all the money, but will still be a quality player, leader and lockerroom guy.

2. On the negative side: If you ever get in trouble you really should look into hiring Donta Hightower PR firm, because they are doing a GREAT job of creating an image of an elite FA talent which doesn't match the production he's put up.

For example, we hear about Donta's run stopping ability when he's only come close to 100 tackles once in his career and that was back in 2013 (coincidently his only season playing 16 games). We hear about his great ability to blitz, yet the production doesn't match the rep. Averaging 3 over the last 2 years and just under 3.5 for his career. Plus we never hear his name associated with the dreaded "injury prone" label, yet over the last 3 years he's actually miss one MORE regular season game than Gronk. (11 vs 10) Yeah that one surprised me too.

3. That's not to disparage Hightower. I WANT him back, and would go as high as $12MM/ with around 50% guaranteed, if there were protections for the Pats for games he doesn't play. That seems fair. But.it DOES shine a bit of a light on why this hasn't happened one way or the other yet.

4. What is most surprising, at least to me, is that there hasn't been even one offer yet, even one low enough to be turned down\

5. This crap about Hightower to the Jets makes ZERO sense on any level and is clearly either agent or media BS. Donta' doesn't fit their scheme. He doesn't fit their locker room. They'd clearly have to vastly over pay to get him to come, and that makes no sense for them to do given there limited budget and massive needs. If they are smart they should be in Pats circa 2000 mode, which if you recall was massive salary cap dumps and lots of mid level FA signings Picking up big name FA's at top dollar is NOT what a team undergoing a total rebuild would do. A total fabrication IMHO

 

[PatsBoy12]

My apologies. I did not mean to attribute that quote to you...it was more of a general theme that I've found many subscribe to, and I thought you were alluding to the idea that since we won the game, all is well. We also trailed 28-3 and put ourselves in position where the previous 93 postseason teams have lost after trailing by that much entering the fourth quarter. Brady's superhuman will and some terrible calls by Atlanta helped us pull off a miracle...that does not mean we can expect the same results without re-evaluating the players that led to a huge, unexpected collapse through three quarters.

Regarding the rest of your post, I've said a few times, though not directly in response to you, that this wasn't just about the Gabriel play - and I stand corrected if indeed this was due to a trip and bad luck..I just know he looked burned on that play as well, totally faked out regardless. If you go back and watch the game, you'll see that Butler was way off his game regardless of the receiver.

I hear you, bud. I feel I haven't noticed anything outstandingly bad about his play. I saw some tight coverage at times, but I will definitely be back to let you know what I think when I watch it again. He did have the PI, but I felt that could have been a no-call.

Nonetheless, I still feel it has little to do with his situation as it stands now. It seems to have to do more with an inexperienced agent who did a little too much talking. You have to come correct when dealing with the Pats. He severely misjudged the market, it seems. I hope MB is a member of this team for years to come. I just don't see that happening.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I hear you, bud. I feel I haven't noticed anything outstandingly bad about his play. I saw some tight coverage at times, but I will definitely be back to let you know what I think when I watch it again. He did have the PI, but I felt that could have been a no-call.

Nonetheless, I still feel it has little to do with his situation as it stands now. It seems to have to do more with an inexperienced agent who did a little too much talking. You have to come correct when dealing with the Pats. He severely misjudged the market, it seems. I hope MB is a member of this team for years to come. I just don't see that happening.

The agent may have been telling the truth when he said Butler wasn't asking for the moon, though I haven't seen Mike Lombardi lie, and Lombardi said he was asking for the moon and more, while attorneys lie for a living. Even given the agent the benefit of the doubt, I'm suspecting it had more to do with making an ultimatum, something along the lines of, "look, Malcolm still has another year left on his contract, and he's willing to take a reasonable deal. But if you don't extend him now, he's gone after 2017." The fact he was complaining about Butler not getting an extension would confirm that he doesn't understand the NFL, and particularly the Patriots operate with their players. He saw this extension as something he felt the Patriots should feel obligated to do, whereas that's not how it works.

That just isn't a standard operating procedure in the NFL for any front office. Having a team option for year 4 of an UDFA is a collectively bargained right for the team, and I don't think it would sit well with Belichick being pushed to extend a guy a year early. The fact that Butler's agent grumbled after the Gilmore deal makes me think this is the more likely story, although this is just my speculation. They rarely offer extensions, and if they do, it better be a sweetheart deal...they are risking the player will not suffer a major injury during their would-be contract year, and there is a fairly big discount necessary to essentially get a market free agency deal when you are not actually a market free agent. Look at what Gronkowski is making, way below his value, but he took the deal with two years left on his contract, hence the risk reward. On the flip side, I'm sure the Patriots wish they hadn't also extended Hernandez in 2011; look at how much money (which is the least of the damage he caused) they would have saved had they waited for him to play out his contract before deciding on his long-term future. A lot can change in a year...and always does.

 

[PatsBoy12]

I love it. One bad game and he's played himself out of a contract (didn't stop Happy Gilmore from getting 14 mil per year, though, and with no experience in this system).

Let's also ship Brady out. He's had a rating under 80 in thirteen of his playoff games.

Don't forget the pick six...

 

[PatsBoy12]

The agent may have been telling the truth when he said Butler wasn't asking for the moon, though I haven't seen Mike Lombardi lie, and Lombardi said he was asking for the moon and more, while attorneys lie for a living. Even given the agent the benefit of the doubt, I'm suspecting it had more to do with making an ultimatum, something along the lines of, "look, Malcolm still has another year left on his contract, and he's willing to take a reasonable deal. But if you don't extend him now, he's gone after 2017." The fact he was complaining about Butler not getting an extension would confirm that he doesn't understand the NFL, and particularly the Patriots operate with their players. He saw this extension as something he felt the Patriots should feel obligated to do, whereas that's not how it works.

That just isn't a standard operating procedure in the NFL for any front office. Having a team option for year 4 of an UDFA is a collectively bargained right for the team, and I don't think it would sit well with Belichick being pushed to extend a guy a year early. The fact that Butler's agent grumbled after the Gilmore deal makes me think this is the more likely story, although this is just my speculation. They rarely offer extensions, and if they do, it better be a sweetheart deal...they are risking the player will not suffer a major injury during their would-be contract year, and there is a fairly big discount necessary to essentially get a market free agency deal when you are not actually a market free agent. Look at what Gronkowski is making, way below his value, but he took the deal with two years left on his contract, hence the risk reward. On the flip side, I'm sure the Patriots wish they hadn't also extended Hernandez in 2011; look at how much money (which is the least of the damage he caused) they would have saved had they waited for him to play out his contract before deciding on his long-term future. A lot can change in a year...and always does.

Both Gronk and AHern probably gives the Pats some pause with this sorta thing too.