This post is long, but it has a lot of meat.
I am reminded of SB42, when the Patriots had franchised Asante Samuel and were considering a huge, long-term deal for him. After the game, Jonathan Kraft had some very negative comments about Samuel's performance down the stretch. I think we know the plays he was referring to, so no need to rub salt. The point was, I was surprised that the Patriots management does place a higher value on "big game" performances and does not really see it as more of a random variance as many statisticians do. Before the game, Samuel was a priority. After the game, the Patriots were absolutely through with him.
I've probably watched SB51 game 20 times now, mostly the second half but the first half a few times as well. One thing that stood out to me was that Butler really played a crappy game. He got burned on an ankle breaking deep pass (he actually fell down! on a pretty basic route) in the third quarter and followed that up with a terrible PI penalty on third down that same series, resulting in a Falcons TD to go up 28-3. On that play, it was a huge bail-out penalty, as Matt Ryan was heavily pressured, and Butler committed the PI despite the receiver being short of the first down. Honestly, I can't remember if it was Benjamin or Sanu on these plays, but I believe both of them pretty much burned him multiple times. The gameplan was to take Julio Jones out of the game with Ryan and McCourty; Jones finished 4/4 for 87 yards, but every catch was despite great coverage. In using that strategy, the Patriots counted on Butler to shutdown the Falcons other wideouts, and you'd think an all-pro corner would have at least put up a tough battle. Combined, Sanu and Gabriel were 5/7 for 101 yards. He just looked totally overmatched.
Butler was also bailed out on the turning play of the SB. Several articles have broken down the play, and it amounts to this: Falcons WR Aldrick Robinson (who???) had badly beaten Butler up the seam and was open for what could have been the game clinching 70-yard TD...if not for the missed block by Freeman and the split second difference in Hightower's rush, things would have turned out very different, with Butler being the game's clear and undeniable goat. Let's remember that Ryan flirted with a perfect QB rating, and that nearly all of the key plays in by the defense were from the front 7 with opportune sacks at critical junctures, hardly coverage sacks either.
It has been brought up before that the Patriots played a historically weak schedule of passing offenses in 2016. There were not a lot of high scoring teams with multiple receiving threats and a strong quarterback, with Atlanta being far and away the best offense. I am also reminded that the Patriots have had a tremendous, deep secondary with excellent safeties, so it is hard to evaluate any player, from a fan's perspective, without fully understanding the schemes and assignments. Another way of looking at it is this: Butler plays in arguably the league's best defensive scheme (NE or Seattle) with year in, year out consistency in their concepts. Gilmore has had four different coordinators in five years and plays with crappy support, terrible safeties, and an overall mess with Rex Ryan and the turnstile of coaches. Despite that, though Butler has been very good and has outperformed Gilmore in the eyes of many, the gap hasn't been that great. If you flipped the two, maybe the Patriots think these players would have very different production and accolades.
This thread isn't to bash Butler, who in my book is an awesome Patriot, total overachiever, a guy who plays the game with tremendous effort and has improved by miles. He is a great cornerback, and I have assumed since 2015 that he would be locked up long-term as a no-brainer. I love Butler, and if he gets sent packing, it would be a huge sentimental blow to all of us who fell in love with his underdog story and his all-time legendary play in SB49. It would suck as a fan to not see him as a long-term Patriot, but how many times have we heard this story before, only to bow down to Belichick when we realize that winning is infinitely better than sentimental loyalty for a certain name and number.
I am just wondering if the Patriots didn't rate Butler as high as we thought they did, partly due to his lackluster Super Bowl when he was tasked with shutting down very good (but not elite) receivers one-on-one...and further, I wonder if his play in the 2016 season dropped off on film, again considering the overall poor passing offenses we faced. Maybe I'm wrong and Butler will back on a big contract as well...I just think the most likely answer here, considering the trade speculation and the Gilmore contract, is that they don't plan to invest two huge contracts for a CB1 and a CB2 and they've made their choice.
