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Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora (merged many times)


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Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

This would be great if it was 2007. Osi, Albert, Chad........Moss?

Sigh! Just take Osi out of the Giants, we would be... let's not go there again.
 
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Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

We play 43 early in camp most years, and we have this discussion every year. BB has never played 1 gap defense.
Versatility is not less important if the scheme changes.

According to Michael Holly, Tedy Bruschi, and Troy Brown yesterday, this defense that they have been running in practice is far different than what we have seen from Belichick. I trust their assessment. All of them are savvy enough to know the difference between just implementing the subpackages early in training camp and a change in defensive philosophy.

Most years you are right, but I think Belichick may want to go with a simplier, more aggressive defense this year because it is easier to learn and implement. Since they lost the offseason, they might not want to try to implement a lite version of their complex defense.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

All of the "capologist's" in this thread will be the first ones lining up to give Osi the Patsfans forum version of a slurpie if this deal actually goes down.

Osi is a beast dipped in monster batter. SIGN ME UP with the bring him in crowd.
yeah, a beast who needs to come off the field on 1st and 2nd down, and wants $12M a year to play 20 plays a game.

SIGN ME UP!:bricks:
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

I agree with the overall point - but based on my perusal of Miguel's pages and my assumptions about the cap going forward, they could afford to add Osi. It might require them to do some of the stuff Rob talks about in the post above - which isn't necessarily their style. So it probably won't happen. But I can't rule it out.

Of course they could "afford to", the question is whether or not they could "afford to" without it hamstringing them in the future. The answer to that is no.

If this was D'Marcus Ware, I'd be all over it, but Osi just isn't good enough to take up this much cap.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

why the hell would you link us any clip from black sunday??????:mad:

so we never forget!!!
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

yeah, a beast who needs to come off the field on 1st and 2nd down, and wants $12M a year to play 20 plays a game.

SIGN ME UP!:bricks:


You will be the first ball washer in line if this happens. :)
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

If this was D'Marcus Ware, I'd be all over it, but Osi just isn't good enough to take up this much cap.
So, are you saying that should Osi sign and his sack of Vick in the dying moments of this years SB seals the deal for a Pats win then he's not worth it?
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

Why did you count 2008 as a season? He missed the whole year with an injury, so you probably should have used 7 years, but who cares anyway.
I simply looked at the list of top 50 active sacks and divided sacks by years. It wasn't scientific. If there were 4 guys on the list it would be different than there being 15.

The fact of the matter is that you said earlier that you don't understand why so many fans have become stat chasers, yet you are using stats to back some of your logic. That seems a bit inconsistent. Why are you using sacks per year to determine the "eliteness" of certain pass rushers if stats aren't that useful and "stat chasers" don't know how to truly build a team?
Because YOU called him an ELITE pass rusher and sacks measure that. Feel free to tell me what makes him elite beyond that. Elite is just overrating him. My list wasn't intended as an iron clad self contained argument, it was an anecdotal way of showing you missed a lot of better guys in your comments.

I don't know how much you've seen of Osi play, and you're entitled to your opinion, but you seem to be in the minority on this one. A lot of people see him as a better all around player than you give him credit for. I agree that he is a bit weaker than ideal vs the run, but I don't think he's an atrocity like you claim.
No so sure I'm in the minority, but you are entitled to your opinion too.

Even so, all the other guys you allege as being "more elite" than him have warts in their games too, yet most are still paid top dollar. Obviously, everyone is looking for a guy like Lawrence Taylor, but those are once in a generation types of players. You can say bad things about all of those guys you listed as being better than Osi in terms of sacks. Some are weak vs the run, some take plays off, some don't maintain the level of consistency from game to game, some are one-trick ponies, some are only good because of the scheme and/or talent surrounding them, etc.
I wasn't commenting on who the best players are, I was illustrating that elite pass rusher is incorrect.

The point is that when you watch Osi Umenyoria play, the guy can wreak havoc, put pressure on the QB, blow plays up in the backfield, and force turnovers. He is a big time difference maker as a pass rusher, regardless of how many sacks per year he has. If you put him on a DL with Haynesworth and Wilfork, who basically both command double teams, Osi would have a monstrous year for the Patriots.
Again, I think you overrate him.

A lot of top flight pass rushers are considered "weak" against the run because they are more interested in getting sacks and "killing the QB" than playing with contain principles or setting the edge. I have seen Osi play a good amount of football and I do not think he is as bad against the run as you think he is. That's just a difference of opinion.
So if he changes his game to pay more attention to the run, like in a 2gap, his pass rushing will suffer. Thats part of the point of the fit.

I think Osi is well worth a second round pick and $8-$10 million per year. He is a great all around pass rusher. I've seen him have success speed rushing, bull rushing, using swim/rip/spin moves, blitzing as a stand up LB in an exotic package. Yes, there is no doubting that he's not a great run stuffer, but he's still good enough in that area that he is worth the investment. This team has not had an elite pass rusher for a very long time.
He is due 7.1mill and asking for a trade, so 8 wont cut it. I think 10mill a year is foolish. Part of the reason we havent had an elite pass rusher in years is the team defense concept that limits individual accomplishment for the sake of the defense. He would not have the sack totals that are on his stat sheet if he had been here for those 8 years.

I know you said you don't mind getting a pass rushing demon to play in sub packages and play 60% of the total defensive snaps, but who do you plan on going out and getting and how are you going to do it?
Whether there is another guy to fill that role quite as well is not a 10mill a year issue.

Regardless of how good a guy is against the run, if he's a good pass rusher, he's going to get big money. This league has become a glorified 7 on 7 game, and guys that can get after the QB and put him on his back are consistently given big time money.
That has never happened here. Can you not see the difference?

Jason Babin had one good year and just got around $5.5-$6 million per year for 5 years at the age of 31. He never had a double digit sack season before 2010, when he racked up 12.5. The highest he ever had before 2010 was 5 sacks, back in 2006.

Charles Johnson had one good year and just got $12 million per year for 6 years. He's had one double digit sack season and was given $12 million dollars per year.
Someone will pay him, I hope it isn't us.

Osi Umenyoria has had 3 double digit sack seasons. He has been a key part of a defense that beat the greatest offense of all time in the SB. He still managed 7 sacks in 2009, despite feuding with the coaching staff, being benched, and having his snaps reduced which led also led to lower confidence and morale levels.
Should we have ot make excuses for a 10mill a year player?

Maybe he doesn't meet your sacks per game assessment, but I'd take him over a ton of guys on your list of people who have more sacks than him. Out of the guys on that list, he's closer to the top than he is to the bottom in terms of pass rushing ability IMO. He is a playmaker at a position where the Pats have desperately needed a playmaker for a long time.
Lets try to take some context. The list of players was solely in response to you calling him elite, no more, no less.
I accept he is a good pass rusher, but at 10mill a year, he is a bad fit here.
You disagree. That is fine.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

So, are you saying that should Osi sign and his sack of Vick in the dying moments of this years SB seals the deal for a Pats win then he's not worth it?

If they need to blow up the team in 2 years because of cap issues, then yeah, it wasn't worth it IMO.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

According to Michael Holly, Tedy Bruschi, and Troy Brown yesterday, this defense that they have been running in practice is far different than what we have seen from Belichick. I trust their assessment. All of them are savvy enough to know the difference between just implementing the subpackages early in training camp and a change in defensive philosophy.

Most years you are right, but I think Belichick may want to go with a simplier, more aggressive defense this year because it is easier to learn and implement. Since they lost the offseason, they might not want to try to implement a lite version of their complex defense.
Well, every year what I am saying has been right, not most.
If you look back there have been a number of years where training camp reports had us changing defense. Its common for BB to run 43 at the start of camp, and sometime in preseason games. It has never happened that he fielded a 1gap defense.
I don't care so much to try to read tea leaves. I will simply believe it when I see it. Why is that so distressing to you guys?
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

As to Umenyiora's cap hit and salary: If the Pats really want him, they can give him a real cap friendly deal even if they pay him what Umenyiora is looking for if they take the Jets' approach. The Jets are currently signing big contracts backloading the money into 2014 where the cap is expected to jump 50-70% when the new TV deals kick in. I guarantee you when the details of Holmes' and Harris' deals are released, you see that.

It is a gamble. There is no guarantee the cap will jump nearly that much. It is a low risk gamble if you do it with one or two salaries. Gets riskier if you do it with more.

I don't know if Belichick will do that. I know there will be teams that abuse it when they catch on. I doubt the Pats would. The question is would Belichick use this gamble to get a marquee name like Umenyiora.
You are recommending following the cap strategy of a team with 25 min salary players in their top 53? Ouch.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

Some of you guys think it coming out of your pocket or something. Sign him, don't sign him, doesn't matter as BB will do something.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

Of course they could "afford to", the question is whether or not they could "afford to" without it hamstringing them in the future. The answer to that is no.

So you aren’t arrogant enough to think you can tell the difference between a guy who runs stiff and a guy who runs with agility, but you are arrogant enough to think you understand the intricacies of manipulating the NFL salary cap.

Makes sense.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

According to Michael Holly, Tedy Bruschi, and Troy Brown yesterday, this defense that they have been running in practice is far different than what we have seen from Belichick. I trust their assessment. All of them are savvy enough to know the difference between just implementing the subpackages early in training camp and a change in defensive philosophy.

Most years you are right, but I think Belichick may want to go with a simplier, more aggressive defense this year because it is easier to learn and implement. Since they lost the offseason, they might not want to try to implement a lite version of their complex defense.

I agree with Andy, a 4-3 or a base nickel is very different from a 3-4. However, I would be shocked if Belichick went away from the read and react defense he has played his entire career. I still expect to see some 3-4 some 4-2-5 3-3-5 and all types of other defenses. Bill isn't really a stay in the base defense the entire game type of coach.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

If they need to blow up the team in 2 years because of cap issues, then yeah, it wasn't worth it IMO.
I think you're being overly concerned about the possible consequence here when you need not be.

Teams get blown up due to a series of poor signings where those additions contribute diddley squat to the well being of the team. The Pats are not in bad future cap shape and certainly won't be due to 1 (Osi) signing.

And, even if they were penalized by having to cut a couple of players to remedy an inflated cap issue, if the result is the hoisting of another Lombardi, then a great many Pats fans would make that exchange in a heartbeat.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

You are recommending following the cap strategy of a team with 25 min salary players in their top 53? Ouch.

I am not saying following their strategy to pay six or seven players on the team elite money. I am saying that Tanenbaum might have found a loophole though that the Pats can exploit without being ridiculous like them.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

So what's going through BB's mind as he assembles the 2011 D?
Lets review a few stats from the Patriots 2010 Defense:

Total Defense Rankings:

25th.....points scored against...passing
19th.....yds/play
30th.....yds/game
23rd.....time of possesion
21st.....TDs
32nd.....1st downs against
32nd.....3rd down %

Defense of the Pass

23rd.....completion %
25th.....TDs
26th.....plays over 20 yds
31st.....passing attempts
27th.....yds/pass
25th.....passing yds/game

1st.....INTs
14th...Sacks

Rushing defense

Top 10 in most categories....
Biggest strength...eliminating big plays

Interesting Stats compared to Jets

Patriots gave up 57 MORE 1st downs through the air than the Jets
Worst 3rd down D by far. Pats failed on 3rd down 47% of the time...Jets 37%
Patriots gave up 5 more 1st downs/game than Jets

Analysis: the 2010 Pass defense was brutal.....nothing new there. I suspect early season deficiencies skewed the total rankings and the secondary became ballhawks the back half of the year. Also, opponents played from behind more often than not due to the high scoring Patriots offense. The eyeball test showed both secondary lapses/inadequacies in the early season and anemic pass pressure behind the LOS throughout the year. With the exception of McCourty's INT proficiency and Mayo's tackling rate, the defense lacked disrupting forces.

What could alter the Patriots standing in the pass defense categories and win column?

I'll argue all day long that if the Pats can improve their QB pass pressure, the offense will benefit and their brutal 3rd down deficiencies will be minimized. JUST ONE extra 3 and out instead of a bend but hopefully not break defensive stand as the opponent marches would be statistically huge. Forcing JUST ONE extra punt would alter the time of possesion imbalance. Forcing JUST ONE errant pass or JUST ONE QB fumble would provide a higher % scoring oportunity for the offense. Finally, JUST ONE extra disruptive play could change the fortunes of a close game.....ahem...cough cough....Jets playoffs.
One last point, Big money has been thrown at the offense .....Brady/Light/Mankins/Koppen/Ocho and to a lesser extent Welker and Branch.
On the defense...Vince, Fat Al, Bodden. I realize Mayo will be comming up soon, but in $$$ terms, there is very little balance.
I'll take Osi in a second because just one extra disruptive play a game can have a huge domino affect over the course of that game. And with Vince and Fat Al in the middle, I expect much more disruption than JUST ONE
 
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Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

great post, Borg - well done I like your analysis......
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

So what's going through BB's mind as he assembles the 2011 D?
Lets review a few stats from the Patriots 2010 Defense:

Total Defense Rankings:

25th.....points against
19th.....yds/play
30th.....yds/game
23rd.....time of possesion
21st.....TDs
32nd.....1st downs against
32nd.....3rd down %

Defense of the Pass

23rd.....completion %
25th.....TDs
26th.....plays over 20 yds
31st.....passing attempts
27th.....yds/pass
25th.....passing yds/game

1st.....INTs
14th...Sacks

Rushing defense

Top 10 in most categories....
Biggest strength...eliminating big plays

Interesting Stats compared to Jets

Patriots gave up 57 MORE 1st downs through the air than the Jets
Worst 3rd down D by far. Pats failed on 3rd down 47% of the time...Jets 37%
Patriots gave up 5 more 1st downs/game than Jets

Analysis: the 2010 Pass defense was brutal.....nothing new there. I suspect early season deficiencies skewed the total rankings and the secondary became ballhawks the back half of the year. Also, opponents played from behind more often than not due to the high scoring Patriots offense. The eyeball test showed both secondary lapses/inadequacies in the early season and anemic pass pressure behind the LOS throughout the year. With the exception of McCourty's INT proficiency and Mayo's tackling rate, the defense lacked disrupting forces.

What could alter the Patriots standing in the pass defense categories and win column?

I'll argue all day long that if the Pats can improve their QB pass pressure, the offense will benefit and their brutal 3rd down deficiencies will be minimized. JUST ONE extra 3 and out instead of a bend but hopefully not break defensive stand as the opponent marches would be statistically huge. Forcing JUST ONE extra punt would alter the time of possesion imbalance. Forcing JUST ONE errant pass or JUST ONE QB fumble would provide a higher % scoring oportunity for the offense. Finally, JUST ONE extra disruptive play could change the fortunes of a close game.....ahem...cough cough....Jets playoffs.
One last point, Big money has been thrown at the offense .....Brady/Light/Mankins/Koppen/Ocho and to a lesser extent Welker and Branch.
On the defense...Vince, Fat Al, Bodden. I realize Mayo will be comming up soon, but in $$$ terms, there is very little balance.
I'll take Osi in a second because just one extra disruptive play a game can have a huge domino affect over the course of that game. And with Vince and Fat Al in the middle, I expect much more disruption than JUST ONE

You might be my new favorite poster. I love you.
 
Re: Report: Pats interested in Umenyiora, price now down to 2nd rounder

"The Patriots have been lining up with Eric Moore and Jermaine Cunningham at end through the first week of training camp." -M.Reiss

Um, yeah, so, ahhh, I think we need some help.
 
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