Reiss' take on the final roster

[PatsWickedPissah]

There has been a silent battle for the leadership of the rebuilt STs, that few have followed. Neither looks to play much on regular Defense. The Safety situation is deep and if Andrews is kept (another potential ST captain candidate), it gets complicated. The question is does keeping one or the other jeopardize a keeper and useful player on their own nominal position or the other nominal position?

I think the Pats have found three future regulat players at LB beyond the big 5. Woods, Rodgers and Alexander. And possibly Lua, #4, someday. It is true by experience that Woods and Alexander are a very good ST; Rodgers has more ST tackles this preseason than Izzo, and regular starting possibilities as well; and Lua is a question mark. Lua might be a contributor on both ST and regular LB but it is not clear, and he might better be seasoned on PS.

OTOH Hawkins has been cut already at Safety. Did the Pats do that to hold a position for Andrews or Mitchell ? Of for both? If Izzo loses out would he be available on the Shadow roster, more likely than Andrews or Mitchell?. Or would he get snapped up more likely than either alternative?. I think its possible that many teams would evaluate his recent work, and pass on him than they would on the other two alternatives. (If Belichick, like George Allen, says you're done, who are we to argue?)

I add it up as 8 LBs; Lua to PS; and both Andrews and Mitchell are targeted for ST duties and an extra DB position. Izzo goes to the Shadow and Rodgers, Woods and Alexander join the big 5 on the 8 man LB corps.

Don't forget this gets easier and safer, since Chad Brown is already targeted, (by me), to Shadow and callable in an emergency if you only carry 8 LBs, as well as Lua on PS, and Izzo on the Shadow. With injuries common to both LB and STs, it easy to envison Larry rejoining the team later.

Such pleasant problems to have.

While I agree with much of what you say and would LIKE to see an Izzo beaten out by an up and comming youngin' I don't think that Rogers has more ST tackles than Izzo.

 

[Vern]

When you're down at 5th or 6th WR the battle is as much with other roster spots as it is with other position players. So it's not just Caldwell, Gaffney and Washington, but guys like Lua and Rogers.

Specifically, I think there is a battle between 6th WR and 10th LB.

There are two factors: "contribution" and "future"

Contribution: Since these guys are all deep backups, you have to look at Special Teams play. I've seen a lot more from Washington than Lua on ST. Also, a 6th WR might play more on Offense than a 10th LB would on defense, so Washington has done a bit at least with WR spot inherently.

Future: This is a debate on where the injuries are going to be, where the rest of the depth is, and also key, who might be a longer term value to the team if kept. Here, you have to assess whether Lua could survive to the PS or be grabbed by someone (the Jets). Compare that to the shaky hammies for both Moss and Stallworth (historically) and two just as shaky guys on PUP health-wise and you might just need the extra WR.

It's very very close. I haven't seen ANYTHING from Lua, not even on ST. But I keep reading great things about him. Trouble is, BB doesn't care about hype, it's what you actually do. Lua has done zero so far, so I go by that right now. Maybe BB is seeing something I don't (hardly a surprise).

On the other hand, I see Washington contributing and doing the little things a lot more (coming back to the ball, in on at least a few plays on ST, etc.) This leads me to believe they can stash Lua on PS or just cut ties without fear anyway and look to Rogers and Woods as LBs of the future with Vets always moving in (Vrable, Thomas give them a few years cover, and there's always Vets out there like Seau somewhere.)

So right now, I say we keep a 6th WR, which is Washington, and not a 10th LB which means Lua is either cut or PS. Both win or lose on the basis of ST play and the last pre-season game. Injuries could of course, force a different decision.

The 5th WR is Caldwell.

The rest of the list, I pretty much agree with Reiss.

 

[The Gr8est]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyle Brady being cut and keeping Watson, Rivers and Mills.

I believe Brady only got a 1-yr deal, so if his health won't allow him to contribute soon, we may want to keep Mills for the future.

Is Rivers a strong enough blocker to get by with? He is certainly a better receiver than Brady.

Then when (if) Thomas is ready we have another interesting dilemma.

 

[DaBruinz]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyle Brady being cut and keeping Watson, Rivers and Mills.

I believe Brady only got a 1-yr deal, so if his health won't allow him to contribute soon, we may want to keep Mills for the future.

Is Rivers a strong enough blocker to get by with? He is certainly a better receiver than Brady.

Then when (if) Thomas is ready we have another interesting dilemma.

Brady was signed to a 2 year deal worth 5.3 million. He was given a $2 million signing bonus. I find it hard to believe that the Pats would cut him.

 

[Jimke]

When you're down at 5th or 6th WR the battle is as much with other roster spots as it is with other position players. So it's not just Caldwell, Gaffney and Washington, but guys like Lua and Rogers.

Specifically, I think there is a battle between 6th WR and 10th LB.

There are two factors: "contribution" and "future"

Contribution: Since these guys are all deep backups, you have to look at Special Teams play. I've seen a lot more from Washington than Lua on ST. Also, a 6th WR might play more on Offense than a 10th LB would on defense, so Washington has done a bit at least with WR spot inherently.

Future: This is a debate on where the injuries are going to be, where the rest of the depth is, and also key, who might be a longer term value to the team if kept. Here, you have to assess whether Lua could survive to the PS or be grabbed by someone (the Jets). Compare that to the shaky hammies for both Moss and Stallworth (historically) and two just as shaky guys on PUP health-wise and you might just need the extra WR.

It's very very close. I haven't seen ANYTHING from Lua, not even on ST. But I keep reading great things about him. Trouble is, BB doesn't care about hype, it's what you actually do. Lua has done zero so far, so I go by that right now. Maybe BB is seeing something I don't (hardly a surprise).

On the other hand, I see Washington contributing and doing the little things a lot more (coming back to the ball, in on at least a few plays on ST, etc.) This leads me to believe they can stash Lua on PS or just cut ties without fear anyway and look to Rogers and Woods as LBs of the future with Vets always moving in (Vrable, Thomas give them a few years cover, and there's always Vets out there like Seau somewhere.)

So right now, I say we keep a 6th WR, which is Washington, and not a 10th LB which means Lua is either cut or PS. Both win or lose on the basis of ST play and the last pre-season game. Injuries could of course, force a different decision.

The 5th WR is Caldwell.

The rest of the list, I pretty much agree with Reiss.

With regard to the wide receivers, keep in mind the Pats will probably have
2 on PUP available after game #6 and 1 or 2 on the practice squad for
emergency use. As for our linebacking corps, the case for Rogers and Lua
is our starting linebackers are 30, 30, 32, and 34 with a 38 year old
backup.

 

[PatsRI]

I had to laugh after coming back and reading this thread. I agree with the earlier post that said it's great to be able to have a 60+ post thread about who the backups are going to be. I remember the days when we couldn't figure out who the starters were going to be, and at LB 2 years ago that was the case. The whole Beisel/Brown and willl Bruschi return debate. I don't think anyone can complain about the Front Office this year.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

One thing we haven't mentioned is that it's a long season and BB takes that view into consideration. Since he knows the injury situation best, he may well keep an injured player or 2 whom he believes is a performer and wait for his recovery, looking towards the 2nd half of the regular season. Starting fast out of the gate is not a BB characteristic. In our winning seasons, our defenses improve substantially as the season progresses.

 

[patsox23]

Not sure why it would be a money issue to cut Caldwell.

Maybe because paying a guy 1.5 mill (or 1.9, whichever, can't recall) to be your 5th/6th receiver is poor value.

 

[patsox23]

Well, I have to say, I really like Reiss's projection because it pretty much backs up every single argument I've been making on this site for the last two weeks. Hope he's right. If he's not - for instance, re: Caldwell - fine with me. I like the guy, I just prefer Washington - but admittedly that could just be part of some baseless fan-boy sense of Washington as a measurables guy coming out of college and falling in love with athletic potential.

 

[patsox23]

I can't see Caldwell being cut. As it stands right now, we will be without Moss, Gaffney, Brown & Jackson.

"As it stands right now" isn't really relevant by that standard b/c Moss WILL be back before the final cuts, and it's possible Gaff will be, as well. I think I could accept your argument if it was "I can see Caldwell not being cut," but "I CAN'T see him bing cut?" That seems oddly certain and extreme for a guy who is clearly on the bubble.

 

[patsox23]

Re: injuries

make it hard to predict, but I have a couple of changes. A player Reiss overlooked is Rashad Baker, who has an undisclosed injury. If he can play, I say he sticks. Solid STer who was running with Sanders as backup safeties before his injury. Injuries may force BB to try to sneak somebody through. Lua does not stick IMO.

Good point re: Baker, he seems to be a solid player. As for Lua, I hope you're wrong. I'd love to see both young LB's stick on the 53 and develop.

 

[patsox23]

I wouldn't be surprised to see Kyle Brady being cut and keeping Watson, Rivers and Mills.

I believe Brady only got a 1-yr deal, so if his health won't allow him to contribute soon, we may want to keep Mills for the future.

Is Rivers a strong enough blocker to get by with? He is certainly a better receiver than Brady.

Then when (if) Thomas is ready we have another interesting dilemma.

There is NO CHANCE Kyle Brady gets cut. He's a "special" player as a blocking TE. Belichick loves him - he got a big-ish contract for a reason.

 

[JoeSixPat]

This is not the first time that Reiss has said that Caldwell is too expensive at $1.5 mil.

I don't see it that way - nor do I number our WRs and say that $1.5 is too much for a #6 WR. The way I view it we have depth with a needed deep threat in Moss and Stallworth (Let's call them 1a and 1b) and a quality #2 WR with Welker - and then three #3 WRs. Sure, I understand not all can be active on game day - but its GREAT to have that depth.

So seeing as the Patriots are in ok salary cap space I'd rather have depth and redundancy than $1.5 million in cap space that could probably be cleared in some other way if they need the space later. The cost of Caldwell's contract is a red herring to me.

 

[patsox23]

I can see your point, but I don't think it's the ONLY reason for jettisoning Caldwell. It just adds to the case for someone like Washington who plays S/T's and has, at least in the past, displayed a real talent/willingness for it.

 

[JoeSixPat]

I've got to admit, if Lua makes the 53 man roster I'll be pleasantly surprised... and that's from someone who argued that he had a shot at making the 53 man roster when some said he had an "uphill battle" to even make the practice squad.

He hasn't looked bad to me but I think its clear the staff (not to mention Bruschi) must really think he's got tremendous upside.

 

[Pat_Nasty]

Scott Benson of BSMW-offshoot Patriotsdaily.com had this to say about Washington's performance on Friday night:

I can see Kelley Washington one day developing into a long-term receiver for the Patriots as he earns his keep on special teams. I don’t know what this guy’s issue has been, but so far, he’s been nothing but competent for New England, including some surprisingly smooth routes and catches. On specials, he’s routinely one of the first on the scene.

Neither Reiss, Tomase or Breer have commented positively or negatively on Washington's ST performance so far, but the fact that, having sat through all of TC, they still cite special teams as a reason he might make the team would certainly imply that they haven't noticed him struggling in that role.

IMO, what I like the most about Washington is that he's looked better each pre-season game. It seems to me like he's catching on to the system as fast as Caldwell did last season, which to me makes Caldwell's added experience a very limited advantage, as it will be rendered negligible as the season goes on.

 

[fgssand]

Decisions are not easy at all....


My take:

Receivers...Washingtons value over Caldwell is special teams as has been noted..however, Red Zone is another area with his size that he could bring an option that Caldwell cannot.

I see it as:

Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Gaffney or Caldwell, but not both as #4 - Gaffney unless injury keeps him from playing for the first month, Washington.

PUP Brown & Jackson

Special teams: Izzo stays as does Andrews - these two are reliable and damn good!!

LB depth: Rogers and Lua both make it as the youth upgrade is in motion, add Alexander and of course Pierre Woods (who looks really good) to this group of youngsters.

TE: Mills is certainly gone, Rivers makes it, as long as Thomas is Pup'ed. Watson & Brady are 1 & 2.

As for both the D & O lines, I can agree with Reiss as really the final spots are anybodys guess.

 

[The Gr8est]

There is NO CHANCE Kyle Brady gets cut. He's a "special" player as a blocking TE. Belichick loves him - he got a big-ish contract for a reason.

Point taken. If Brady is not ready to start the season however, the extra flxibility of keeping him on the PUP list would allow us to keep a guy like Mills away from other teams as they put their final rosters together. Brady hasn't practiced yet though, is that correct?

 

[Mack Herron]

Brady has practiced and not eligible for PUP. He went out on teh plank and told hte media his injury was manageable, so no IR. He will be on the roster, period.

 

[mgteich]

Let's look at Reiss' roster. Personally, I would make ONE change. I might have taken Wesley over Mitchell, but if Mitchell is healthy, then I agree with Mitchell as a choice. Also, he knows better than I how ready Gaffney is. I might have chosen Caldwell, but I'm fine with Gaffney as a choice.

THE ONE CHANGE
I would cut Lua and replace him with James, a position of greater need, if not James, then Wesley. Reiss hides the need for a 4th corner by labeling Meriweather a corner (and all this to keep his binky who may not even make the Practice Squad).


OFFENSE (24)
QB (3) Brady, Cassell, Testaverde
RB (4) Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Evans
WR (5) Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Gaffney, Washington
TE (3) Watson, Brady, Rivers
OL (9) Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaycur,
O'Callaghan, Hochstein, Yates, Britt

DEFENSE (26)
DL (7) Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Smith, Wright, Brown
ILB (6) Thomas, Bruschi, Seau, Alexander, Izzo, Lua
OLB (4) Vrabel, Colvin, Woods, Rogers
CB (4) Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Meriweather
S (5) Harrison, Wilson, Sanders, Andrews, Mitchell

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Baugher
DS Paxton

PUP
WR Brown
WR Jackson
TE Thomas
CB Jackson