Reiss' take on the final roster

[Vern]

Let's look at Reiss' roster. Personally, I would make ONE change

Ok, I'll do the same, making ONE change as well (depending how you count it). Cut Lua to PS if possible, add Caldwell. The final nail in the coffin here is that by going with 6 WR, you have a much better chance of getting something in a trade (for say, Caldwell or Washington) if they are on the 53. The trade deadline is usually mid to late October, so you go back to 5 WR for a few weeks until the PUPsters come free. If you try to trade a WR now, you get nothing because teams know they are likely to be cut anyway.

Also, if injury strikes... while your LBs are old, Lua simply cannot be asked to play a down given his current skills. Depth is only depth if the guy can contribute when called. At WR Washington can play should Moss or Stallworth be inactive due to the usual things that plague WRs every year.

This presumes you can sneak Lua onto the PS, or that he is worth even worrying about.

OFFENSE (24)
QB (3) Brady, Cassell, Testaverde
RB (4) Maroney, Faulk, Morris, Evans
WR (6) Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Gaffney, Caldwell, Washington
TE (3) Watson, Brady, Rivers
OL (9) Light, Mankins, Koppen, Neal, Kaycur,
O'Callaghan, Hochstein, Yates, Britt

DEFENSE (26)
DL (7) Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Green, Smith, Wright, Brown
ILB (5) Thomas, Bruschi, Seau, Alexander, Izzo
OLB (4) Vrabel, Colvin, Woods, Rogers
CB (4) Samuel, Hobbs, Gay, Meriweather
S (5) Harrison, Wilson, Sanders, Andrews, Mitchell

SPECIALISTS (3)
K Gostkowski
P Baugher
DS Paxton

PUP
WR Brown
WR Jackson
TE Thomas
CB Jackson

 

[jct]

I want 2 Qbs, 6WRs and/or to trade away a WR (gaffney/caldwell/washington) for a pick next year
Mills to IR
Cut Wesley

But I agree this is a great team to be worrying about the 5th backup!!!

 

[mgteich]

Vern and I (when I accepted his change) didn't need to go to 3 QB's to end up with the sixth WR.)

I want 2 Qbs, 6WRs and/or to trade away a WR (gaffney/caldwell/washington) for a pick next year
Mills to IR
Cut Wesley

But I agree this is a great team to be worrying about the 5th backup!!!

 

[PatsSteve1]

Brady was signed to a 2 year deal worth 5.3 million. He was given a $2 million signing bonus. I find it hard to believe that the Pats would cut him.

That's probably true. I like what I've seen of Rivers. Blocks well and seems to have soft hands. Maybe we should cut Watson? -

 

[captain stone]

Great thread; lots of folks have brought tasty food for thought to this party.

QB - Reiss says 3; I want 2.
Vinnie should be kept on speed-dial, not on the 53.
If Gutierrez is claimed before he can be PS'ed, then oh well.

RB - Reiss says 4; I want 5.
This spot is reserved for Mills, unless a professional RB is signed within the next fortnight.

WR - Reiss says 5; I want 6.
The 6th is, of course, Caldwell, who could be the only leftover WR healthy enough to be active for Opening Day. This should not be underestimated.
If Moss and Gaffney are good to go, then Washington may become expendable.

TE - Reiss says 3; I agree.
If Brady is good to go, then Rivers may become expendable.

OL - Reiss says 9; I agree.
The 3 rookies are too inexperienced, and too untalented, to unseat any of the 9 on Reiss', and my, list.
If the jest want Mruc, then they can have him. No loss there.

DL - Reiss says 7; I agree.
My only change might be Rashard Moore instead of LeKevin Smith.
I want a legit backup NT on the 53; if LK can't cut the mustard there, then we need to find someone (Moore?) who can.

ILB - Reiss says 6; I want 5.
We should not keep 2 lousy ILBs (Alexander and Izzo) just because they both play STs. Either one should stay, or the other - not both. My choice to keep is Alexander; he is bigger, faster, younger and may (probably not, but may) still have a future on defense.
The only way that both Alexander and Izzo should be kept is if all of Moss, Gaffney and KBrady are healthy for the jest. Then we could carry 24 on Offense, and 26 on Defense.

OLB - Reiss says 4; I agree.
Chad Brown can be another speed-dial candidate.
Now, if an OLB who fits the NEP's size/experience/production profile is suddenly available, then I would PS Rogers. We already have one yoot at OLB.
Now that I think of it, I would do the same with Lua at ILB, too.

DB - Reiss says 9; I agree.
I combined Reiss' choices for CB and S because they are the same 9 names that I chose.
Wesley instead of Mitchell wouldn't upset me too much, because of Wesley's potential (if any) at FS/CB. His one penalty/game average bothers me, however.
Now that I think of it (again), if we can afford a 26th defender, it should be Wesley, not Izzo.

One thing I noticed, as did at least one other poster, is that Reiss seems worried about losing the rookies/bubble guys before they can be PS'ed.
I find that need unfounded; when the cutdown day from 75 to 53 arrives, there will be over 300 players available. I doubt that many execs will be waiting with baited breath for the release of the NEP's UDFA-quality draft picks and other flotsam.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Re: the Caldwell vs. Washington issue-

By the numbers, Caldwell, handed the number one WR spot by default, had a mediocre 2006 season- 61 Rec, 12.5yds/catch, 4TD, 2 Lost Fumbles, and X number of crucial drops. If this is a guy you feel we need to keep I ask, why?
Because he knows the offense? Year to year improvement is the Pat's aim but what gains can you expect to get from a guy who never really got any better/worse as last season wore on?

Reche doesn't play ST and that hurts. Washington is a solid gunner/ST and looks committed. More size, speed, versatility, and an apparent Pat's like attitude make Washington more valuable than Reche who was so disappointing at times last year.

And while it may seem like Monopoly money, saving $500K or more would be a viable part of the assessment on whether to keep player A or B. Every penny saved stays in Daddy Kraft's britches ready to become part of another mind bending bouns deal like Warren's.

Bottom line - Reche stays if Gaffney is hurt badly. A trade for a 6th or 7th would look good ( a steal since he'd likely be cut) otherwise....

 

[JoeSixPat]

Re: the Caldwell vs. Washington issue-

By the numbers, Caldwell, handed the number one WR spot by default, had a mediocre 2006 season- 61 Rec, 12.5yds/catch, 4TD, 2 Lost Fumbles, and X number of crucial drops.

I don't think anyone was tougher on Caldwell last season than me - but I'm not sure 61 passes can be deemed mediocre on the Patriots. How many passes do you expect Moss, Stallworth or Welker will have this year?

His YPC wasn't what it needed to be - but I don't think we can blame him for the fact that he and Watson were the only receiving threats, nor the playcalling either. 61 catches under those conditions when every defender knew the pass was going to him or Watson is nothing to sneeze at.

Statistically I don't think he'd be viewed as someone drop prone either - he had his share - notably in the playoffs, but so too do other players.

No one's going to assert he's a #1 WR - but a #3 WR? Sure. And having a #3 quality WR at your #6 spot ain't bad in my book.

After last year when the team suffered without WR depth my gut tells me that the team sees value in stockpiling WR talent in case of injury during the season. To me that means keeping 6 WRs to see how things shake out until we need to make a decision on Troy coming off the PUP.

I do think that Washington, Gaffney and/or Caldwell all do have trade value - even though I'm pretty much alone in that belief, but I'd still prefer to hold onto as much depth as possible for a SB run than gain a day 2 draft pick.

 

[DaBruinz]

Maybe because paying a guy 1.5 mill (or 1.9, whichever, can't recall) to be your 5th/6th receiver is poor value.

And cutting him after he led your team in receiving is bad business. Especially when he hasn't done anything to LOSE the job. If he was playing like garbage, I'd agree with you. But he hasn't been.

Oh, and how much VALUE to you place on actually KNOWING the offense? Especially after last year's debacle with the receivers?

 

[DaBruinz]

"As it stands right now" isn't really relevant by that standard b/c Moss WILL be back before the final cuts, and it's possible Gaff will be, as well. I think I could accept your argument if it was "I can see Caldwell not being cut," but "I CAN'T see him bing cut?" That seems oddly certain and extreme for a guy who is clearly on the bubble.

Gaffney is on crutches. I think its a LONGSHOT that he will be back by next Sunday.

 

[cstjohn17]

One thing I noticed, as did at least one other poster, is that Reiss seems worried about losing the rookies/bubble guys before they can be PS'ed.
I find that need unfounded; when the cutdown day from 75 to 53 arrives, there will be over 300 players available. I doubt that many execs will be waiting with baited breath for the release of the NEP's UDFA-quality draft picks and other flotsam.

Nice breakdown, I agree with the last statement, I think we tend to over value our own players. If we lose 1 or 2 of our PS candidates so be it. Most are easily replaceable parts.

 

[DaBruinz]

Scott Benson of BSMW-offshoot Patriotsdaily.com had this to say about Washington's performance on Friday night:



Neither Reiss, Tomase or Breer have commented positively or negatively on Washington's ST performance so far, but the fact that, having sat through all of TC, they still cite special teams as a reason he might make the team would certainly imply that they haven't noticed him struggling in that role.

IMO, what I like the most about Washington is that he's looked better each pre-season game. It seems to me like he's catching on to the system as fast as Caldwell did last season, which to me makes Caldwell's added experience a very limited advantage, as it will be rendered negligible as the season goes on.

Hmm.. I will have to re-watch the games because from what I have seen, Washington has been routinely LATE. As a gunner, he should be the 1st or 2nd guy there. And from what I remember, he's been the 4th to 6th guy there. That's not good.

 

[Fencer]

If both Hochstein and Yates are gimpy, who exactly is the game-day-active interior OL backup?

Does the answer to that question change anything?

Or did Yates recover while I wasn't looking?

 

[mgteich]

We'll see, but both are truly gimpy in a week, then we'll have 10 OL's on the roster, keeping Mruc.

If both Hochstein and Yates are gimpy, who exactly is the game-day-active interior OL backup?

Does the answer to that question change anything?

Or did Yates recover while I wasn't looking?

 

[DaBruinz]

Re: the Caldwell vs. Washington issue-

By the numbers, Caldwell, handed the number one WR spot by default, had a mediocre 2006 season- 61 Rec, 12.5yds/catch, 4TD, 2 Lost Fumbles, and X number of crucial drops. If this is a guy you feel we need to keep I ask, why?
Because he knows the offense? Year to year improvement is the Pat's aim but what gains can you expect to get from a guy who never really got any better/worse as last season wore on?

Reche doesn't play ST and that hurts. Washington is a solid gunner/ST and looks committed. More size, speed, versatility, and an apparent Pat's like attitude make Washington more valuable than Reche who was so disappointing at times last year.

And while it may seem like Monopoly money, saving $500K or more would be a viable part of the assessment on whether to keep player A or B. Every penny saved stays in Daddy Kraft's britches ready to become part of another mind bending bouns deal like Warren's.

Bottom line - Reche stays if Gaffney is hurt badly. A trade for a 6th or 7th would look good ( a steal since he'd likely be cut) otherwise....

Reche returned kicks (I mistakenly said punts previously) in San Deigo. Obviously the Pats aren't using him their for some reason. But its not as if he's incapable of playing on special teams.

Also, Reche was never brought in to be the #1 receiver. He was brought in to be the #2 opposite Branch. With the #1 job, he was going up against much better CBs. Now, lining up as the 2nd-4th receiver, Caldwell would see much lesser CBs and should be able to shine.

Also, your stats aren't correct. Reche had 1 drop during the regular season and 2 in the post season and its speculation whether the second one cost the Pats the game. Also, Caldwell had only 1 fumble, which he lost.

As far as Washington being a solid gunner. Sorry, but he hasn't shown it from what I saw. He's not able to beat the guys blocking him and usually is the 4th to 6th person to the return man. Granted, I am going to re-watch the last 3 games, but that was my initial assessment and no one has stepped up with information to the contrary.

 

[DaBruinz]

If both Hochstein and Yates are gimpy, who exactly is the game-day-active interior OL backup?

Does the answer to that question change anything?

Or did Yates recover while I wasn't looking?

Yates was playing in the Carolina game. He lined up at LG from what I saw. Not sure how many plays he was out there for.

 

[mgteich]

If (a big if) the prognosis on Gaffney is that he waon't be ready for a month, what would your choice be for dealing with Gaffney?

Mine would be to negotiate an injury settlement and move on.

 

[Fencer]

One way to look at the WRs. If the number winds up being 5:

A. Moss, Stallworth, and Welker have shown the most by far in the league.
B. Caldwell and Gaffney have, duh, shown the most by far in a Pats uniform.
C. Washington hasn't clearly surpassed any of those guys in preseason.

On the other hand, who would you rather keep: Washington or Mel Mitchell? The list of competent speed guys for kick coverage may not be all that high.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK. There will be approximately 15 guys at the speed positions. Who will or won't cover kicks if not on the roster?

Moss, Stallworth, and Caldwell won't, right?

How about Welker and Gaffney?

Meriweather, Sanders, and Andrews surely will.

Harrison and Wilson -- probably, at least if they're needed.

Samuel, Hobbs, and Gay -- probably not, for reasons of durability and value elsewhere. But they're surely available if needed.

Wesley -- if he makes the roster, of course.
Mitchell -- ditto.
Richardson -- ditto.

James -- anybody have a clue?

 

[mgteich]

I would rather keep the better of Mitchell or Wesley than a 6th wide receiver. As it is, Vern's and my roster now has 6 wide receiver AND also Mitchell.

One way to look at the WRs. If the number winds up being 5:

A. Moss, Stallworth, and Welker have shown the most by far in the league.
B. Caldwell and Gaffney have, duh, shown the most by far in a Pats uniform.
C. Washington hasn't clearly surpassed any of those guys in preseason.

On the other hand, who would you rather keep: Washington or Mel Mitchell? The list of competent speed guys for kick coverage may not be all that high.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK. There will be approximately 15 guys at the speed positions. Who will or won't cover kicks if not on the roster?

Moss, Stallworth, and Caldwell won't, right?

How about Welker and Gaffney?

Meriweather, Sanders, and Andrews surely will.

Harrison and Wilson -- probably, at least if they're needed.

Samuel, Hobbs, and Gay -- probably not, for reasons of durability and value elsewhere. But they're surely available if needed.

Wesley -- if he makes the roster, of course.
Mitchell -- ditto.
Richardson -- ditto.

James -- anybody have a clue?

 

[captain stone]

Gaffney is on crutches. I think its a LONGSHOT that he will be back by next Sunday.

Gaffney on crutches? That bums me in.

If Gaffney stays on the 53, then we definitely need a 6th WR.

 

[mgteich]

The open question is whether we should keep him on the 53.

Gaffney on crutches? That bums me in.

If Gaffney stays on the 53, then we definitely need a 6th WR.