Prediction: Ras-I Dowling is the new starting S

[shakadave]

This forum sometimes slams predictors, so congrats Andy on getting this out there anyway. My sense is that Dowling is NOT a cerebral player (apologies to Ivories) but that still doesn't automatically rule it out. Unfortunately he's only about 2 weeks of playing time into his Patriots career, as Patchick references. Too bad it wasn't a normal year or Dowling would have a better chance. I'm personally hoping we have him as a #3 corner (#2 by December) since I view 3rd corner as essentially a starter/must-have position.

 

[Triumph]

Trust Bill to take safety measures - BostonHerald.com

 

[Ivan]

I would love to see it but think it is more likely the second half of the season than right out of the gate. Like McCourty I-Dowling has all the tools, brains, and work ethic to turn into a really good pro DB but he had no senior season of football and no camps to learn how the Patriots secondary worls, let alone the position change. I think he can make the switch but can't imagine Belichik starting him against Miami. it would be a ballsy move and i would love to see him take that chance, we''ll see?

 

[Ring 6]

I foresee us playing a ton of cover-1, with one safety on the field, and 4 CB

What would make you think that?

 

[cavtroop]

What would make you think that?

How many safeties do we have on the roster?

 

[patchick]

My sense is that Dowling is NOT a cerebral player (apologies to Ivories)

I have to say, you're the first person I've every heard say that about him. Football intelligence has always been considered one of Dowling's biggest strengths: understanding his assignments, diagnosing plays, etc.

 

[Ring 6]

Right, the cap isn't an issue. If BB plans on getting a vet S in here, the key factor is time. The sooner he gets here, the better he will learn the system and play well. Saving a few bucks to sign someone after week 1 might be good for a 3rd TE or a 4th S, not so much for a starter.

But part of the issue is we don't save anything by guaranteeing one players contract then cutting him as opposed to bringing in a player before game 1 and guaranteeing his IF he is cut. It actually costs more to wait if the guy you bring in makes it and about the same if he doesnt.

 

[Ring 6]

How many safeties do we have on the roster?

4 or 5 depending on how you classify Dowling, the same or more than we always have.

 

[cavtroop]

4 or 5 depending on how you classify Dowling, the same or more than we always have.

I think Dowling is a CB myself, but I also think the lines between Safety/Cornerback are going to blur in this years Patriots D.

I see more man coverage, with more pressure from the front 6/7, more 3-3-5 or 4-2-5 coverages, with a single safety playing zone, and the rest of the DB (whether you call them S or CB isn't relevant really) playing man.

Just a hunch, and I'm wrong way more often than I'm right. But releasing Sanders, then Merriwether, leaving us with Chung and 3 so-so Safeties lends some weight here. Put your best players on the field, let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Ring 6]

I would love to see it but think it is more likely the second half of the season than right out of the gate. Like McCourty I-Dowling has all the tools, brains, and work ethic to turn into a really good pro DB but he had no senior season of football and no camps to learn how the Patriots secondary worls, let alone the position change. I think he can make the switch but can't imagine Belichik starting him against Miami. it would be a ballsy move and i would love to see him take that chance, we''ll see?

I think a lot of that stuff is overrated. Dowling has been here 6 weeks or so, and has been in the classroom even if injured.
We do not know how much time he has spent learning S responsibilities but the common discussion is that BB teaches players to know everyones assignment and often has rookies learn a few different spots.
I don't think it takes that much time for a guy who has played the secondary his entire life to understand the few different things a safety is asked to do.
How many different assignments does a safety really have, and how hard is it to learn the play calls in 6 weeks?

 

[bagwell368]

I foresee us playing a ton of cover-1, with one safety on the field, and 4 CB

So you see a 4-2-5? 5-1-5?

I think the Pats may set the record for most defensive sets this year, so we may see it, but as a common thing? Not sure about that.

 

[Ring 6]

I think Dowling is a CB myself, but I also think the lines between Safety/Cornerback are going to blur in this years Patriots D.

I see more man coverage, with more pressure from the front 6/7, more 3-3-5 or 4-2-5 coverages, with a single safety playing zone, and the rest of the DB (whether you call them S or CB isn't relevant really) playing man.

BB has never done this, other than the nickel personell which I think its hard to use more than the 57% of the snaps he used it last year.

Just a hunch, and I'm wrong way more often than I'm right. But releasing Sanders, than Merriwether, leaving us with Chung and 3 so-so Safeties lends some weight here. Put your best players on the field, let the chips fall where they may.

To me that is a matter of cutting guys he doesn't think are the best players to help the team win, not deciding safeties dont matter any more.
It could be argued very effectively that Sanders and Meriwhether are gone because the guys you called so-so are playing better football. Names dont make plays.

 

[BelichickFan]

I expect it to be Barrett and I want to see him fail in coverage before I'm willing to accept the "SS banger" label. He's got very good speed and athleticism, that doesn't mean he'll be good in coverage but I'm not blindly buying the label he's being given.

 

[Ring 6]

This forum sometimes slams predictors, so congrats Andy on getting this out there anyway. My sense is that Dowling is NOT a cerebral player (apologies to Ivories) but that still doesn't automatically rule it out. Unfortunately he's only about 2 weeks of playing time into his Patriots career, as Patchick references. Too bad it wasn't a normal year or Dowling would have a better chance. I'm personally hoping we have him as a #3 corner (#2 by December) since I view 3rd corner as essentially a starter/must-have position.

What do you base your feeling he is a dummy on?

 

[cavtroop]

So you see a 4-2-5? 5-1-5?

I think the Pats may set the record for most defensive sets this year, so we may see it, but as a common thing? Not sure about that.

I see 4-2-5, 3-3-5, 2-4-5, 4-4-3, lots and lots of different sets. I said this in my earlier post, but I think in this D the line between safety/cornerback is really blurring - I think BB is going to start thinking of them as 'defensive backs' and mostly - not completely - interchangeable. The one thing Belichick likes to do is shake things up, confuse defenses, etc. Getting your best players on the field - regardless if they are labelled 'FS' or 'CB' is what I think it's going to be all about. Really, what is the difference between a CB asked to play a deep zone versus a FS asked to cover the same zone? Semantics really.

Whatever it is, it's going to be fun to watch

 

[Ring 6]

I expect it to be Barrett and I want to see him fail in coverage before I'm willing to accept the "SS banger" label. He's got very good speed and athleticism, that doesn't mean he'll be good in coverage but I'm not blindly buying the label he's being given.

But he is a very big safety. Going from a 5'11 195 lb small safety who was a borderline corner to a 6'2 225 lb safety doesn't seem to be an improvement in coverage skill, but I do agree we haven't seen enough of Barrett to judge.
However, if he was 6'2 225 S and covered like a safety who was considered a possible corner, I'd think he would have been drafted earlier than the 7th round and would have a start or 2 under his belt in the NFL by now.

 

[BelichickFan]

But he is a very big safety. Going from a 5'11 195 lb small safety who was a borderline corner to a 6'2 225 lb safety doesn't seem to be an improvement in coverage skill, but I do agree we haven't seen enough of Barrett to judge.
However, if he was 6'2 225 S and covered like a safety who was considered a possible corner, I'd think he would have been drafted earlier than the 7th round and would have a start or 2 under his belt in the NFL by now.

Barrett is (was) a better athlete than Meriweather.

Combine numbers (Barrett first) :

40 yd : 4.34, 4.47
20 yd : 2.50, 2.61
10 yd : 1.50, 1.52
Shuttle : 4.27, 4.33
3 Cone : 7.07, 7.06
Long Jump : 10'1", 9'3"
Vert Jump : 31.5", 35"
225 reps : 17, 11

I'm not saying that Barrett is better nor that he's good in coverage nor that his injuries haven't slowed him from the above numbers.

But at the combine, Barrett was faster, quicker and stronger than Meriweather so, again, I'm not willing to buy the "thumper" role just yet. BTW the weights were 223 for Barrett and 195 for Meriweather.

 

[Trocadile]

I think if everyone is healthy (obviously a big if) then McCourty, Bodden, Chung and Dowling are the top 4 DBs, and BB will figure out a way to play them as much as he can. And I think that means Dowling at safety sometimes, but plenty at corner as well.

 

[PatsCanDoIt]

The way I understand it is that Geno Wilson was able to step in as starting safety his rookie year because Rodney was able to lead a secondary with Ty Law and Tyrone Poole as the corners. In 2003 they were all 29-31 years old.

Now with Chung, McCourty and Bodden we don't have the same level of experience. We'll need Dowling or Brown to assume more responsibility than Geno had.

 

[patfanken]

But he is a very big safety. Going from a 5'11 195 lb small safety who was a borderline corner to a 6'2 225 lb safety doesn't seem to be an improvement in coverage skill, but I do agree we haven't seen enough of Barrett to judge.
However, if he was 6'2 225 S and covered like a safety who was considered a possible corner, I'd think he would have been drafted earlier than the 7th round and would have a start or 2 under his belt in the NFL by now.

What is going to happen in the area of the Safeties is really an interesting topic if only because the possible answers are so varied.

Cavtroop brought up an interesting point that shouldn't be dismissed. I think the old stereotypes of 2 cover or zone CBs with a free ball hawking safety and a bigger strong S to cover TEs and help in the run game HAVE indeed become blurred in the era of so many varied combinations of nickel and dime coverages

Don't dismiss the possibility of Molden assuming the Wilson role in this defense. He has the size and the athletic skills to be an excellent coverage S. Maybe the position change could energize a rather disappointing start to his career.

The Dowling scenario is the common wisdom and has been since he was drafted. However I kind of liked what little I saw of him playing a cover corner vs the Giants. I think acquitted himself very well and was the kind of physical CB that could cause trouble for bigger WRs on the outside. JMHO of course.

If pass coverage is the issue back there, Brian Dawkins, (at this stage of his career) IS NOT the answer. I would very be surprised if he's brought in.

As for Barrett, he's the great question mark in all this. BB has kept him around for a long time without any benefit for a reason. Hopefully he's more than just a big banger back therre.