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"Please explain how the Pats, Steelers, and Ravens have "more talent" and where"

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Deus Irae, Aug 1, 2012.

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  1. NEGoldenAge

    NEGoldenAge Banned

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    You don't understand pass rushing. It is a group effort, not just about an individual's stats. Most sacks made by the outside rushers happen because the interior DL collapsed the pocket in front of the QB taking away sliding lanes. The complementary nature of the pass rush is fundamental.
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2012
  2. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Using ProfootballFocus as an authority abolishes any credibilty in your post.
  3. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    ProFootballFocus rates Mankins below average. That is the criteria Jason is using, what ProFootballFocus says.
  4. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Here are some responses:

    - I agree with you that Pouha is vastly underrated, BUT he is not in the same league as Wilfork. Wilfork is an elite player at his position and arguably had his most dominant year last year. There is a significant gap between him and Pouha, but that is no swipe at Pouha. If I was going to rank defensive players on both teams combined, Wilfork would come in at #2 after Revis.
    - I still think Maybin as a pass rusher is overrated. You can find the Youtube video of his 2011 highlights and a large number of his sacks are due to Revis. You can see the opposing QB wanting to throw Revis' way and holds onto the ball for 5-7 seconds while Maybin who initially got blocked out of the play had time to recover and make the play. Rob Ninkoich had as many sacks as Maybin. If the Pats resign Carter, he is easily a better pass rusher.
    - Waters was arguably the best RG in the league last year. I don't think Moore is as good as him.
    - Ferguson did have a disaster year last year, but I think he was never as good as he was given credit for in previous years.
    - I agree with what I think you are saying. The Jets seem to be better built for the post season than the regular season. Unfortunately, two of the three years of Rex Ryan they haven't been good enough team in the regular season (the Jets were lucky Rex's first year to face two teams at the end of the season with nothing to play for or they might have gone 8-8 or 7-9).
  5. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    No offense Jason, but Pro Football Focus is crap. I know the national media loves them (mostly because it gives them stats that they can quote to look smart). The problems with their credibility have been well documented on this site over time (poor math, using readers to calculate stats, using TV broadcasts to calculate stats). But all you have to do is look at their top 101 players of 2011 to see the flaws in their stats. They have Justin Smith as the second best player in the league last year.

    Personally, I think they have a bit of a bias against the Pats. They always downgrade Tom Brady in rankings because he is a system QB who doesn't throw down the field (he is ranked 13th in their Top 101 and 33rd in the 2010 version). Vince Wilfork isn't ranked in their top 101 players (Pouha is 36).
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2012
  6. BSR

    BSR Rookie

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Jason, according to pro-football reference the Jets only threw the ball 547 times last year. I am not sure where you are getting those statistics but I think they could be suspect.
  7. jason423

    jason423 Rookie

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Im not using their analysis as anything. Its my own analysis simply using their stats and putting them into their own metric. I cant speak for their scoring system (its similar to FO in that they rank good/bad/average etc... but more subjective in that FO uses a baseline stat number) as good or bad, but the numbers they collect are considered pretty accurate by most teams or stat groups. Ive always had issues with their own rankings- i.e giving equal weight to penalties when its such a small sample- but the actual stats are relatively accurate.
  8. jason423

    jason423 Rookie

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Thats passes not pass plays. By pass plays I mean a dropback. What I did was collect the stats for each player under what was considered pressure and non pressure. Remember that on a pass play there are a few options- passing the ball, running with the ball, getting sacked. Those last two numbers are not counted in PFRs pass attempts. When you look at the numbers there is a clear change from pressure. Run attempts go way up. Completion Percentage goes way down. Interceptions go up.

    The stats are from PFF and for whatever faults one may think they have with their analysis the stats themselves are considered pretty accurate. My analysis is 100% independent of PFFs. Certainly for these types of plays its pretty easy from any TV broadcast to get the QB stats correct.
  9. jason423

    jason423 Rookie

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    I cant really think of too many plays where Maybin got a Revis sack. Im sure there was 1 or 2, but most of the time they were fast sacks. Im not sold on him either. When a tackle gets his hands on him he is toast because he weighs nothing. Hes got a great motor and never gives up, but hes a first step sacker. I tend to think he wont be a factor by the end of the season, but part of that is because I want to believe in Coples making Maybin irrelevant.

    Brick was never an elite level talent. I dont think anyone outside of the Jets fanbase ever thought that. He was drafted to be Orlando Pace and hes not in that class. Joe Thomas is. Jake Long looked like he would be before last season. Brick never was. Hes still a good player that is capable of neutralizing great pass rushers. His problems are that he loses concentration at the line leading to way too many offsides, he too often misses outside rushers helping out inside and getting his QB hit, and every few games he just has a play where he gets caught leaning back and gets turned around real quick. The Freeny sacks he gave up were criminal and his failure to pick up a blitz in Pittsburgh may have cost them that game. I think hes a top 10 player with top 5 upside but hell never be top 3. Hes not paid to be top 3 either.

    The first season was a bit lucky with Indy. That Bengals team was no good though which is why the Jets handed them their behinds the following week as well. 2009 was a strange season. The defense was fantastic and they lost some bizarre games (two against Miami, the Falcons mess, etc...) which never balanced out. Usually when you lose those kind of games somewhere it gets made up. They were up on Indy when Indy pulled Manning but who knows. If Manning got hot the way he did in the championship game the Jets would have lost in week 16 as well. I thought it balanced out the next year though because the 11 wins had some miracles in there and Im not sure that balanced out either.
  10. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Very interesting tidbit on how you collect your own stats. If your salary cap pages are any indication of the quality of your work, then I'm sure that they were very meticulously collected. If you'd be willing to share any other conclusions that you've reached, especially ones that go against common perception, I'd definitely love to hear them; I'm sure I'd learn quite a bit.

    Regarding PFF, on the other hand, that site is pretty widely understood to be useless around here, and there's good reason for that. It's a decent tool for evaluating basic pre-snap stuff, such as participation rates and where guys are lining up, but damn near useless for evaluating performance/execution after the snap. Before the stats were made available only to paying customers, we had a running tally of some of the more ridiculous conclusions that PFF routinely reached. It was back-to-the-drawing-board type stuff, like one year where I think they ranked Stylez G. White as one of the best defensive players in the NFL, miles ahead of guys like Wilfork. Even that year, there wasn't a single team in the NFL that would have taken two Stylez G. Whites ahead of Wilfork.
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2012
  11. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    stats are fine and dandy but they are missing two very important ingredients that are key to WINNING an NFL foot ball game...heart and determination...on any given Sunday the team with more heart and the team more determined to play hard the full sixty minutes most often wins the game....no matter what the stats say.

    How do you quantify focus...for example? You take Santonio in the Pats/Jets 2nd meeting in the Meadowlands....his utter lack of heart and focus in that game crippled the Jet offense....you can crunch all the stats you want trying to answer why the Jets lost like that at home, but it basically came down to the team that was more focused the entire game, playing as a TEAM.That is quite obvious even to a neophyte of the game.
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2012
  12. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Here is a highlight video of Maybin's season. I only counted two sacks where Maybin got to the QB right away. Most of the other ones the QB either had to check off the read or just held onto the ball for too long or were forced to scramble by other defenders other than Maybin. In most Maybin was initially blocked out of the play and recovered:

    Aaron Maybin Highlights 2011 [HD] - YouTube
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2012
  13. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    There are plenty of stats that strongly indicate a lack of WR focus, starting with a lot of drops and low completion percentage on throws that are intended for him. Stats certainly don't tell the whole story, not even close where football is concerned, but they're not nearly as useless as you seem to think they are.
  14. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Of course you are. You used their grading system to call Mankins a below average G.
    You used their analysis in your Cromartie write up.
    The 'statistics' you are referring to are judgments made by people who admittedly are not football experienced watching the TV feed. You wrote an enitre article about corners using their judgment derived statistics, and you did the same with the OL.
    How PFF tallies QB pressures and sacks is not an agreed upon statistic, and in fact it is an inaccurate one.
    Their methodology concluded, among other bizarre findings, that Tom Brady was the 30th best player in the NFL when he was the unanimous MVP in 2010, primarily because they downgraded him for not completing passes to heavily covered receivers because he didn't throw to heavily covered receivers.
  15. jason423

    jason423 Rookie

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    I dont work for PFF nor do I work with them in any way. All I can say is that the statistics they produce are accepted within certain NFL communities as being relatively accurate and about as accurate as what comes out of Stats inc. There are some judgements made about assigning blame on sacks, completions etc...but its the best that there is out there to work with right now.

    You can disagree with their analysis system (thats the +2, -2 ranking system), but the actual work that goes into the stat collecting is pretty well done. Certainly the QB numbers have no subjectivity to them. Nor do reception stats. A person creating a pressure or registering a sack is pretty straightforward. Might there be a few incorrect assessments on who allows a sack or gives up a reception? Probably, but in such a huge sample of plays those errors would normally fix themselves.

    FWIW, they grade Mankins in terms of sacks better than Stats inc. Mankins was credited by stats with 5.5 sacks allowed while PFF gave him 4. Mankins sacks according to stats the last 3 years is 1, 3.5, and 5.5. Its the same type of progression you see from PFF. The number differential is basically attributed to 1 side always attributing a sack to someone whereas the other will hold off on it if they think they cant blame someone.

    Why does Brady grade poorly relative to others in their overall ranking system? Id imagine its the general overall safe play of the offense. I dont really agree with it and I think its a shortcoming of their system. Brees runs more plays and is going to amass more results. Scores for systems like that should always be tied into some base and they dont do that. You cant score a situational player better than others. They are never given an opportunity to fail and its why when they get more opportunities those players usually flop.

    I think you guys feel that there is a bias towards New England and thus it means their stats are totally useless. I would simply ask what better source is there outside of getting information from a team themselves? Neither FO nor PFF are football people. They are numbers people. FO used to grade, and maybe they still do, based off the situational box scores. The baselines are all subjective as are their rankings of WR1, WR2 etc... Doesnt mean its not worth anything. Id imagine you dont subscribe to their stats database but if you do go inside their stats database and look at the numbers for players other than the Patriots and say what is a glaring mistake with those stats. Not their plus/minus grades their actual stats.
  16. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    There's no bias toward New England. PFF's stats are useless because they are useless. That's an NFL wide phenomenon.
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2012
  17. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    I think their stats are useless because there are factual errors in their stats. They consistently have different stats than the official stats collected by other organizations. I think their stats are useless because they use TV broadcasts to compile stats which is not nearly as accurate as using the "All 22". I think their stats are useless because they do not have a team who collect the stats themselves and rely on others. For example, someone pointed out that they have the wrong amount pass attempts for the Jets.

    I do think they have a weird bias against the Pats at least Brady, but that is their analysis work, not their stat collection. They use poorly collected stats to make their analysis.
  18. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    From memory their degrees of freedom calculation was less than stellar.
  19. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    That is simply not true. Unless you are talking about participation stats which are black and white.
    To imply that they can assign credit or blame for a play (which you are absolutely using them for) by having an individual who lacks football knowledge watch the TV feed and CREATE stats is nothing but flat out ignorant.
    I understand they provide stats no one else does, but those stats have no accuracy or credibility to them at all.

    They are not collecting stats, they are creating them. The 2 'stats' I have seen you cite involve determining who is charged with failure as a blocker and who is charged with allowing plays in coverage when the people making this judgment admitedly have no clue about the blocking or coverage scheme.

    I'm not sure what numbers you are referring to that you need PFF for, but they did downgrade Brady becuase he didn't throw into double coverage enough?????????


    Sacks are an official stat. Sack or pressures 'credited' to an OL requires an insight they do not have.

    So your argument is that if they don't know what they are doing, the law of averages makes them right? Really??

    You stated that Mankins graded as a below average G. That is not taking stats, that is taking the grading system play by play of PFF and calling it fact. You ought to be able to admit that error.


    It has nothing to do with opportunities. Their analysis specifically downgraded him for not throwing into double coverage, while crediting other QBs for the nerve to throw Ints into double coverage. That is the logic you have hitched your wagon to. I suggest you look for something with more credibility to tie your credibility to.

    Not even close. We consistently dismiss their pro-Patriot ramblings.
    They are not credible because their methods, experience, and analysis are all substantially sub par.


    Is your argument seriously that no one else gives the stat, so the one unreliable place that does becomes credible? Again, really?



    Someone who doesn't understand coverage schemes assigning 'blame' for a reception to an individual is bad data. Bad data is bad date. end of story.



    Theiir ratings are based on the subjective measures you call stats.
    They are not 'stats'. They are the judgment of incompetant judges.
  20. TomBrady'sGoat

    TomBrady'sGoat Rookie

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    There are people in baseball circles who still accept HRs and RBI as being relatively accurate measures of ability. The fact that some people in NFL circles may value PFF's work doesn't impress me.

    and even if their work was the best out there, that wouldn't mean it's credible. the best of crap is still crap.

    if you think their methods are good then stick up for them, but don't try selling us on "NFL people use them" or "they're better than others" because nether of those arguments say that they have any value. they imply that PFF's work has value but don't account for the competence of the NFL people nor the value of competitor stats.
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