"Please explain how the Pats, Steelers, and Ravens have "more talent" and where"

[NEGoldenAge]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I cant speak on game to game stats, though I guess that could be collected if someone had the time to do it. What I have are aggregate stats for the guys who played a majority of snaps for all the teams last season. The formula I have basically looks at completions under pressure vs regular completions which can give an idea of just how many times a player giving up a pressure causes a failure (the average QB split is something like 64% completions per dropback with no pressure vs 43% when pressurized). I find it a far better estimation than the sites that simply say a pressure is about the same as a sack since a sack has no chance of being complete while QBs still complete passes under pressure.

The average numbers last year were as follows:

Tackles: Pressures on 5.87% and sacks on 1.17 % of dropbacks
Guards: Pressures on 3.7% and sacks on 0.45% of dropbacks
Centers: Pressures on 2.2% and sacks on 0.37% of dropbacks

Those outside pressures are far more effective. There are monsters like Suh and Ngata that play on the inside now, but its still coming from the outside. Guys on the inside help each other out alot while the outside guys are often on an island. I think the big difference now is that RT has slowly become as important as LT because teams are so often moving players around on the line and its no longer a guarantee that the best pass rusher is lining up against the LT. Hunter last year got brutalized by Ware and Miller on a few plays. Years ago that never would have happened.

You don't understand pass rushing. It is a group effort, not just about an individual's stats. Most sacks made by the outside rushers happen because the interior DL collapsed the pocket in front of the QB taking away sliding lanes. The complementary nature of the pass rush is fundamental.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I think everyone gets all over Cromartie because he is a poor tackler (which is true). But the corners primary job is coverage and he has been stellar at it. These were the statistical numbers on Cro the last three years Ranking the NFL Cornerbacks and he is right up there with the top players in the NFL. The one advantage he has is that he doesnt always go up against the best player (he only gets that assignment if the guy is both tall and a down field threat), but even in 2009 his numbers were top 10 in San Diego.

The depth on the Jets line is poor, but I thought this was just looking at starters. You have an unknown at LT, which is the most important spot on the field, and they have the advantage of blocking for a great QB. Sanchez makes the guys in front of him look worse, with the exception of Hunter who is a disaster.

I think what I meant to say was they were better suited for the playoffs those two years and that the regular seasons were not spectacular by any means. I do think the defense first mentality does pay off more if you make the playoffs than being a balanced wildcard team that is mediocre on both sides (i.e. the Bengals last season or the Dolphins the year they won the East), but the Jets run game is clearly not as good. They are banking on Greene running for a new contract and Tebow creating some surprises out there. Im not sure either will happen.

Using ProfootballFocus as an authority abolishes any credibilty in your post.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

That says it all. Mankins is an All Pro player, and still playing at or near that level. Slauson is not. Ferguson is wildly overrated, and his play the past couple of years has been proving that. Moore is pretty good, but was not close to Waters, and Vollmer could just lie down on the ground at the snap and still be better than Hunter.

ProFootballFocus rates Mankins below average. That is the criteria Jason is using, what ProFootballFocus says.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I think the writing is pretty much on the wall that the Jets will be transitioning to a 43 defense this season. Their last few drafts have pushed them that way and Rex pretty much said its going to happen.

Offensively its hard to even argue the skill positions. Quite frankly the Jets talent level is poor. Holmes has talent but is likely not going to be happy on the team. WR2 and WR3 is a mess. The Jets are right back where they were in 2009 before they made the move for Braylon Edwards. Their starting wideouts before that trade were Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, and Brad Smith.

I like the Jets line better than New Englands, though the Patriots line was better last season. Alot depends on Ferguson who was a disaster last season. I have no idea what happened with him, but he was a mess in the second half of the year to the point where I was surprised the front office gave him as much of a signing bonus as they did. I figured they would want to play it safer. Waters actually lines up against Moore not Slauson. Id call that a push though Ive never been the biggest Moore fan. Mankins is better than Slauson but that the most easily hidden spot on the line.

Id imagine the Jets D-line front this year will be Wilkerson, Pouha, Ellis, and Coples/Maybin. If Maybin plays like he did last season he is the best pass rusher for either team. Thats a big if though. He would be worthless on 1st and 2nd downs. I think you are selling Pouha short. I know Wilfork is the bigger name and more respected player but Pouha was dominant last season against the run. I can see calling Wilfork better, especially since Pouha only did it at that level for one season, but I dont think its a big gap. The secondary I think you have right.

To me the Jets secondary is, barring rookie 2nd year player surprises, almost as dominant compared to the Patriots as the Patriots skill guys are to the Jets. The corner tandem is the best in the NFL and the safeties are better than last season. The Jets deficiency last year (and probably this one too) is against teams like yours the secondary will look awful because once you spread them out it does no good to have Revis and Cromartie out there. Just avoid them and pick on the safeties or 3rd corner. They will be better than last season since Smith will be replaced, at least until Landry gets hurt, and Bell is better than Leonhard, but it will be a rough go against New England. Luckily very few teams have the personnel to do that to the Jets.

The one area where NEs secondary does well and while I wouldnt consider it as big a difference as the Jet/Pats WRs is they are extremely opportunistic and they dont seem to drop interceptions. The Jets are not a good interception team despite the fact that they do have great cover guys. Its the one thing missing from the team the last three years and why it was too bad Kerry Rhodes never bought in because he was the athletic guy with range they needed. They play better in the red zone as well and your coach does a great job of not having them do things they cant do, which limits the super huge plays and scores. Thats not really talent related but the results are the same regardless.

Still as a Jet fan its probably foolish to compare the Jets to the year over year elite squads in the AFC. The Jets have yet to prove to be a great regular season team and their mix works better in the playoffs where games tend to slow down, especially in the cold. If roles were reversed and they had Pittsburgh in 2009 rather than Indy on the fast track the Jets probably advance to the Super Bowl that year. But regular season wise the team has won 9, 11, and 8 games since Rex got here. That cant compare to teams that routinely win 10 or more games every year. The Jets need to be comparing themselves to teams like the Titans, Bengals, Bills (who I think are way overrated spending money on pass rushers who have not really proven to be worth the kind of money despite the name value), Chargers, etc.... at this stage. Start off the year 5-1 or something like that and you can start looking at how you match up with the big boys. But its not time for that. Hopefully there will be a time for it but right now its kind of a pointless exercise.

Here are some responses:

- I agree with you that Pouha is vastly underrated, BUT he is not in the same league as Wilfork. Wilfork is an elite player at his position and arguably had his most dominant year last year. There is a significant gap between him and Pouha, but that is no swipe at Pouha. If I was going to rank defensive players on both teams combined, Wilfork would come in at #2 after Revis.
- I still think Maybin as a pass rusher is overrated. You can find the Youtube video of his 2011 highlights and a large number of his sacks are due to Revis. You can see the opposing QB wanting to throw Revis' way and holds onto the ball for 5-7 seconds while Maybin who initially got blocked out of the play had time to recover and make the play. Rob Ninkoich had as many sacks as Maybin. If the Pats resign Carter, he is easily a better pass rusher.
- Waters was arguably the best RG in the league last year. I don't think Moore is as good as him.
- Ferguson did have a disaster year last year, but I think he was never as good as he was given credit for in previous years.
- I agree with what I think you are saying. The Jets seem to be better built for the post season than the regular season. Unfortunately, two of the three years of Rex Ryan they haven't been good enough team in the regular season (the Jets were lucky Rex's first year to face two teams at the end of the season with nothing to play for or they might have gone 8-8 or 7-9).

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I think everyone gets all over Cromartie because he is a poor tackler (which is true). But the corners primary job is coverage and he has been stellar at it. These were the statistical numbers on Cro the last three years Ranking the NFL Cornerbacks and he is right up there with the top players in the NFL. The one advantage he has is that he doesnt always go up against the best player (he only gets that assignment if the guy is both tall and a down field threat), but even in 2009 his numbers were top 10 in San Diego.

The depth on the Jets line is poor, but I thought this was just looking at starters. You have an unknown at LT, which is the most important spot on the field, and they have the advantage of blocking for a great QB. Sanchez makes the guys in front of him look worse, with the exception of Hunter who is a disaster.

I think what I meant to say was they were better suited for the playoffs those two years and that the regular seasons were not spectacular by any means. I do think the defense first mentality does pay off more if you make the playoffs than being a balanced wildcard team that is mediocre on both sides (i.e. the Bengals last season or the Dolphins the year they won the East), but the Jets run game is clearly not as good. They are banking on Greene running for a new contract and Tebow creating some surprises out there. Im not sure either will happen.

No offense Jason, but Pro Football Focus is crap. I know the national media loves them (mostly because it gives them stats that they can quote to look smart). The problems with their credibility have been well documented on this site over time (poor math, using readers to calculate stats, using TV broadcasts to calculate stats). But all you have to do is look at their top 101 players of 2011 to see the flaws in their stats. They have Justin Smith as the second best player in the league last year.

Personally, I think they have a bit of a bias against the Pats. They always downgrade Tom Brady in rankings because he is a system QB who doesn't throw down the field (he is ranked 13th in their Top 101 and 33rd in the 2010 version). Vince Wilfork isn't ranked in their top 101 players (Pouha is 36).

 

[BSR]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

Mankins last year allowed 4 sacks and 19 pressures in 564 pass plays with a QB that is an absolute stud with his mastery of the pocket. Slauson gave up 4 and 20 in 605 plays with a guy that runs around like a chicken with his head cut off. Im not sure how that is a dominating win for Mankins. Waters and Moore is close. It was 2 and 10 for Waters and 0 and 12 for Moore. Waters is an all time great while Moore is a PB alternate type, but its not a blowaway victory.

Jason, according to pro-football reference the Jets only threw the ball 547 times last year. I am not sure where you are getting those statistics but I think they could be suspect.

 

[jason423]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

Using ProfootballFocus as an authority abolishes any credibilty in your post.

Im not using their analysis as anything. Its my own analysis simply using their stats and putting them into their own metric. I cant speak for their scoring system (its similar to FO in that they rank good/bad/average etc... but more subjective in that FO uses a baseline stat number) as good or bad, but the numbers they collect are considered pretty accurate by most teams or stat groups. Ive always had issues with their own rankings- i.e giving equal weight to penalties when its such a small sample- but the actual stats are relatively accurate.

 

[jason423]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

Jason, according to pro-football reference the Jets only threw the ball 547 times last year. I am not sure where you are getting those statistics but I think they could be suspect.

Thats passes not pass plays. By pass plays I mean a dropback. What I did was collect the stats for each player under what was considered pressure and non pressure. Remember that on a pass play there are a few options- passing the ball, running with the ball, getting sacked. Those last two numbers are not counted in PFRs pass attempts. When you look at the numbers there is a clear change from pressure. Run attempts go way up. Completion Percentage goes way down. Interceptions go up.

The stats are from PFF and for whatever faults one may think they have with their analysis the stats themselves are considered pretty accurate. My analysis is 100% independent of PFFs. Certainly for these types of plays its pretty easy from any TV broadcast to get the QB stats correct.

 

[jason423]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

Here are some responses:

- I still think Maybin as a pass rusher is overrated. You can find the Youtube video of his 2011 highlights and a large number of his sacks are due to Revis. You can see the opposing QB wanting to throw Revis' way and holds onto the ball for 5-7 seconds while Maybin who initially got blocked out of the play had time to recover and make the play. Rob Ninkoich had as many sacks as Maybin. If the Pats resign Carter, he is easily a better pass rusher.
- Waters was arguably the best RG in the league last year. I don't think Moore is as good as him.
- Ferguson did have a disaster year last year, but I think he was never as good as he was given credit for in previous years.
- I agree with what I think you are saying. The Jets seem to be better built for the post season than the regular season. Unfortunately, two of the three years of Rex Ryan they haven't been good enough team in the regular season (the Jets were lucky Rex's first year to face two teams at the end of the season with nothing to play for or they might have gone 8-8 or 7-9).

I cant really think of too many plays where Maybin got a Revis sack. Im sure there was 1 or 2, but most of the time they were fast sacks. Im not sold on him either. When a tackle gets his hands on him he is toast because he weighs nothing. Hes got a great motor and never gives up, but hes a first step sacker. I tend to think he wont be a factor by the end of the season, but part of that is because I want to believe in Coples making Maybin irrelevant.

Brick was never an elite level talent. I dont think anyone outside of the Jets fanbase ever thought that. He was drafted to be Orlando Pace and hes not in that class. Joe Thomas is. Jake Long looked like he would be before last season. Brick never was. Hes still a good player that is capable of neutralizing great pass rushers. His problems are that he loses concentration at the line leading to way too many offsides, he too often misses outside rushers helping out inside and getting his QB hit, and every few games he just has a play where he gets caught leaning back and gets turned around real quick. The Freeny sacks he gave up were criminal and his failure to pick up a blitz in Pittsburgh may have cost them that game. I think hes a top 10 player with top 5 upside but hell never be top 3. Hes not paid to be top 3 either.

The first season was a bit lucky with Indy. That Bengals team was no good though which is why the Jets handed them their behinds the following week as well. 2009 was a strange season. The defense was fantastic and they lost some bizarre games (two against Miami, the Falcons mess, etc...) which never balanced out. Usually when you lose those kind of games somewhere it gets made up. They were up on Indy when Indy pulled Manning but who knows. If Manning got hot the way he did in the championship game the Jets would have lost in week 16 as well. I thought it balanced out the next year though because the 11 wins had some miracles in there and Im not sure that balanced out either.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

Thats passes not pass plays. By pass plays I mean a dropback. What I did was collect the stats for each player under what was considered pressure and non pressure. Remember that on a pass play there are a few options- passing the ball, running with the ball, getting sacked. Those last two numbers are not counted in PFRs pass attempts. When you look at the numbers there is a clear change from pressure. Run attempts go way up. Completion Percentage goes way down. Interceptions go up.

The stats are from PFF and for whatever faults one may think they have with their analysis the stats themselves are considered pretty accurate. My analysis is 100% independent of PFFs. Certainly for these types of plays its pretty easy from any TV broadcast to get the QB stats correct.

Very interesting tidbit on how you collect your own stats. If your salary cap pages are any indication of the quality of your work, then I'm sure that they were very meticulously collected. If you'd be willing to share any other conclusions that you've reached, especially ones that go against common perception, I'd definitely love to hear them; I'm sure I'd learn quite a bit.

Regarding PFF, on the other hand, that site is pretty widely understood to be useless around here, and there's good reason for that. It's a decent tool for evaluating basic pre-snap stuff, such as participation rates and where guys are lining up, but damn near useless for evaluating performance/execution after the snap. Before the stats were made available only to paying customers, we had a running tally of some of the more ridiculous conclusions that PFF routinely reached. It was back-to-the-drawing-board type stuff, like one year where I think they ranked Stylez G. White as one of the best defensive players in the NFL, miles ahead of guys like Wilfork. Even that year, there wasn't a single team in the NFL that would have taken two Stylez G. Whites ahead of Wilfork.

 

[Joker]

stats are fine and dandy but they are missing two very important ingredients that are key to WINNING an NFL foot ball game...heart and determination...on any given Sunday the team with more heart and the team more determined to play hard the full sixty minutes most often wins the game....no matter what the stats say.

How do you quantify focus...for example? You take Santonio in the Pats/Jets 2nd meeting in the Meadowlands....his utter lack of heart and focus in that game crippled the Jet offense....you can crunch all the stats you want trying to answer why the Jets lost like that at home, but it basically came down to the team that was more focused the entire game, playing as a TEAM.That is quite obvious even to a neophyte of the game.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I cant really think of too many plays where Maybin got a Revis sack. Im sure there was 1 or 2, but most of the time they were fast sacks. Im not sold on him either. When a tackle gets his hands on him he is toast because he weighs nothing. Hes got a great motor and never gives up, but hes a first step sacker. I tend to think he wont be a factor by the end of the season, but part of that is because I want to believe in Coples making Maybin irrelevant.

Brick was never an elite level talent. I dont think anyone outside of the Jets fanbase ever thought that. He was drafted to be Orlando Pace and hes not in that class. Joe Thomas is. Jake Long looked like he would be before last season. Brick never was. Hes still a good player that is capable of neutralizing great pass rushers. His problems are that he loses concentration at the line leading to way too many offsides, he too often misses outside rushers helping out inside and getting his QB hit, and every few games he just has a play where he gets caught leaning back and gets turned around real quick. The Freeny sacks he gave up were criminal and his failure to pick up a blitz in Pittsburgh may have cost them that game. I think hes a top 10 player with top 5 upside but hell never be top 3. Hes not paid to be top 3 either.

The first season was a bit lucky with Indy. That Bengals team was no good though which is why the Jets handed them their behinds the following week as well. 2009 was a strange season. The defense was fantastic and they lost some bizarre games (two against Miami, the Falcons mess, etc...) which never balanced out. Usually when you lose those kind of games somewhere it gets made up. They were up on Indy when Indy pulled Manning but who knows. If Manning got hot the way he did in the championship game the Jets would have lost in week 16 as well. I thought it balanced out the next year though because the 11 wins had some miracles in there and Im not sure that balanced out either.

Here is a highlight video of Maybin's season. I only counted two sacks where Maybin got to the QB right away. Most of the other ones the QB either had to check off the read or just held onto the ball for too long or were forced to scramble by other defenders other than Maybin. In most Maybin was initially blocked out of the play and recovered:

Aaron Maybin Highlights 2011 [HD] - YouTube

 

[BradyFTW!]

stats are fine and dandy but they are missing two very important ingredients that are key to WINNING an NFL foot ball game...heart and determination...on any given Sunday the team with more heart and the team more determined to play hard the full sixty minutes most often wins the game....no matter what the stats say.

How do you quantify focus...for example? You take Santonio in the Pats/Jets 2nd meeting in the Meadowlands....his utter lack of heart and focus in that game crippled the Jet offense....you can crunch all the stats you want trying to answer why the Jets lost like that at home, but it basically came down to the team that was more focused the entire game, playing as a TEAM.That is quite obvious even to a neophyte of the game.

There are plenty of stats that strongly indicate a lack of WR focus, starting with a lot of drops and low completion percentage on throws that are intended for him. Stats certainly don't tell the whole story, not even close where football is concerned, but they're not nearly as useless as you seem to think they are.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

Im not using their analysis as anything. Its my own analysis simply using their stats and putting them into their own metric. I cant speak for their scoring system (its similar to FO in that they rank good/bad/average etc... but more subjective in that FO uses a baseline stat number) as good or bad, but the numbers they collect are considered pretty accurate by most teams or stat groups. Ive always had issues with their own rankings- i.e giving equal weight to penalties when its such a small sample- but the actual stats are relatively accurate.

Of course you are. You used their grading system to call Mankins a below average G.
You used their analysis in your Cromartie write up.
The 'statistics' you are referring to are judgments made by people who admittedly are not football experienced watching the TV feed. You wrote an enitre article about corners using their judgment derived statistics, and you did the same with the OL.
How PFF tallies QB pressures and sacks is not an agreed upon statistic, and in fact it is an inaccurate one.
Their methodology concluded, among other bizarre findings, that Tom Brady was the 30th best player in the NFL when he was the unanimous MVP in 2010, primarily because they downgraded him for not completing passes to heavily covered receivers because he didn't throw to heavily covered receivers.

 

[jason423]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

Of course you are. You used their grading system to call Mankins a below average G.
You used their analysis in your Cromartie write up.
The 'statistics' you are referring to are judgments made by people who admittedly are not football experienced watching the TV feed. You wrote an enitre article about corners using their judgment derived statistics, and you did the same with the OL.
How PFF tallies QB pressures and sacks is not an agreed upon statistic, and in fact it is an inaccurate one.
Their methodology concluded, among other bizarre findings, that Tom Brady was the 30th best player in the NFL when he was the unanimous MVP in 2010, primarily because they downgraded him for not completing passes to heavily covered receivers because he didn't throw to heavily covered receivers.

I dont work for PFF nor do I work with them in any way. All I can say is that the statistics they produce are accepted within certain NFL communities as being relatively accurate and about as accurate as what comes out of Stats inc. There are some judgements made about assigning blame on sacks, completions etc...but its the best that there is out there to work with right now.

You can disagree with their analysis system (thats the +2, -2 ranking system), but the actual work that goes into the stat collecting is pretty well done. Certainly the QB numbers have no subjectivity to them. Nor do reception stats. A person creating a pressure or registering a sack is pretty straightforward. Might there be a few incorrect assessments on who allows a sack or gives up a reception? Probably, but in such a huge sample of plays those errors would normally fix themselves.

FWIW, they grade Mankins in terms of sacks better than Stats inc. Mankins was credited by stats with 5.5 sacks allowed while PFF gave him 4. Mankins sacks according to stats the last 3 years is 1, 3.5, and 5.5. Its the same type of progression you see from PFF. The number differential is basically attributed to 1 side always attributing a sack to someone whereas the other will hold off on it if they think they cant blame someone.

Why does Brady grade poorly relative to others in their overall ranking system? Id imagine its the general overall safe play of the offense. I dont really agree with it and I think its a shortcoming of their system. Brees runs more plays and is going to amass more results. Scores for systems like that should always be tied into some base and they dont do that. You cant score a situational player better than others. They are never given an opportunity to fail and its why when they get more opportunities those players usually flop.

I think you guys feel that there is a bias towards New England and thus it means their stats are totally useless. I would simply ask what better source is there outside of getting information from a team themselves? Neither FO nor PFF are football people. They are numbers people. FO used to grade, and maybe they still do, based off the situational box scores. The baselines are all subjective as are their rankings of WR1, WR2 etc... Doesnt mean its not worth anything. Id imagine you dont subscribe to their stats database but if you do go inside their stats database and look at the numbers for players other than the Patriots and say what is a glaring mistake with those stats. Not their plus/minus grades their actual stats.

 

[ausbacker]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I dont work for PFF nor do I work with them in any way. All I can say is that the statistics they produce are accepted within certain NFL communities as being relatively accurate and about as accurate as what comes out of Stats inc. There are some judgements made about assigning blame on sacks, completions etc...but its the best that there is out there to work with right now.

You can disagree with their analysis system (thats the +2, -2 ranking system), but the actual work that goes into the stat collecting is pretty well done. Certainly the QB numbers have no subjectivity to them. Nor do reception stats. A person creating a pressure or registering a sack is pretty straightforward. Might there be a few incorrect assessments on who allows a sack or gives up a reception? Probably, but in such a huge sample of plays those errors would normally fix themselves.

FWIW, they grade Mankins in terms of sacks better than Stats inc. Mankins was credited by stats with 5.5 sacks allowed while PFF gave him 4. Mankins sacks according to stats the last 3 years is 1, 3.5, and 5.5. Its the same type of progression you see from PFF. The number differential is basically attributed to 1 side always attributing a sack to someone whereas the other will hold off on it if they think they cant blame someone.

Why does Brady grade poorly relative to others in their overall ranking system? Id imagine its the general overall safe play of the offense. I dont really agree with it and I think its a shortcoming of their system. Brees runs more plays and is going to amass more results. Scores for systems like that should always be tied into some base and they dont do that. You cant score a situational player better than others. They are never given an opportunity to fail and its why when they get more opportunities those players usually flop.

I think you guys feel that there is a bias towards New England and thus it means their stats are totally useless. I would simply ask what better source is there outside of getting information from a team themselves? Neither FO nor PFF are football people. They are numbers people. FO used to grade, and maybe they still do, based off the situational box scores. The baselines are all subjective as are their rankings of WR1, WR2 etc... Doesnt mean its not worth anything. Id imagine you dont subscribe to their stats database but if you do go inside their stats database and look at the numbers for players other than the Patriots and say what is a glaring mistake with those stats. Not their plus/minus grades their actual stats.

There's no bias toward New England. PFF's stats are useless because they are useless. That's an NFL wide phenomenon.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I dont work for PFF nor do I work with them in any way. All I can say is that the statistics they produce are accepted within certain NFL communities as being relatively accurate and about as accurate as what comes out of Stats inc. There are some judgements made about assigning blame on sacks, completions etc...but its the best that there is out there to work with right now.

You can disagree with their analysis system (thats the +2, -2 ranking system), but the actual work that goes into the stat collecting is pretty well done. Certainly the QB numbers have no subjectivity to them. Nor do reception stats. A person creating a pressure or registering a sack is pretty straightforward. Might there be a few incorrect assessments on who allows a sack or gives up a reception? Probably, but in such a huge sample of plays those errors would normally fix themselves.

FWIW, they grade Mankins in terms of sacks better than Stats inc. Mankins was credited by stats with 5.5 sacks allowed while PFF gave him 4. Mankins sacks according to stats the last 3 years is 1, 3.5, and 5.5. Its the same type of progression you see from PFF. The number differential is basically attributed to 1 side always attributing a sack to someone whereas the other will hold off on it if they think they cant blame someone.

Why does Brady grade poorly relative to others in their overall ranking system? Id imagine its the general overall safe play of the offense. I dont really agree with it and I think its a shortcoming of their system. Brees runs more plays and is going to amass more results. Scores for systems like that should always be tied into some base and they dont do that. You cant score a situational player better than others. They are never given an opportunity to fail and its why when they get more opportunities those players usually flop.

I think you guys feel that there is a bias towards New England and thus it means their stats are totally useless. I would simply ask what better source is there outside of getting information from a team themselves? Neither FO nor PFF are football people. They are numbers people. FO used to grade, and maybe they still do, based off the situational box scores. The baselines are all subjective as are their rankings of WR1, WR2 etc... Doesnt mean its not worth anything. Id imagine you dont subscribe to their stats database but if you do go inside their stats database and look at the numbers for players other than the Patriots and say what is a glaring mistake with those stats. Not their plus/minus grades their actual stats.

I think their stats are useless because there are factual errors in their stats. They consistently have different stats than the official stats collected by other organizations. I think their stats are useless because they use TV broadcasts to compile stats which is not nearly as accurate as using the "All 22". I think their stats are useless because they do not have a team who collect the stats themselves and rely on others. For example, someone pointed out that they have the wrong amount pass attempts for the Jets.

I do think they have a weird bias against the Pats at least Brady, but that is their analysis work, not their stat collection. They use poorly collected stats to make their analysis.

 

[ausbacker]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I think their stats are useless because there are factual errors in their stats. They consistently have different stats than the official stats collected by other organizations. I think their stats are useless because they use TV broadcasts to compile stats which is not nearly as accurate as using the "All 22". I think their stats are useless because they do not have a team who collect the stats themselves and rely on others. For example, someone pointed out that they have the wrong amount pass attempts for the Jets.

I do think they have a weird bias against the Pats at least Brady, but that is their analysis work, not their stat collection. They use poorly collected stats to make their analysis.

From memory their degrees of freedom calculation was less than stellar.

 

[Ring 6]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

I dont work for PFF nor do I work with them in any way. All I can say is that the statistics they produce are accepted within certain NFL communities as being relatively accurate and about as accurate as what comes out of Stats inc. There are some judgements made about assigning blame on sacks, completions etc...but its the best that there is out there to work with right now.

That is simply not true. Unless you are talking about participation stats which are black and white.
To imply that they can assign credit or blame for a play (which you are absolutely using them for) by having an individual who lacks football knowledge watch the TV feed and CREATE stats is nothing but flat out ignorant.
I understand they provide stats no one else does, but those stats have no accuracy or credibility to them at all.

You can disagree with their analysis system (thats the +2, -2 ranking system), but the actual work that goes into the stat collecting is pretty well done.

They are not collecting stats, they are creating them. The 2 'stats' I have seen you cite involve determining who is charged with failure as a blocker and who is charged with allowing plays in coverage when the people making this judgment admitedly have no clue about the blocking or coverage scheme.

Certainly the QB numbers have no subjectivity to them. Nor do reception stats.

I'm not sure what numbers you are referring to that you need PFF for, but they did downgrade Brady becuase he didn't throw into double coverage enough?????????

A person creating a pressure or registering a sack is pretty straightforward.

Sacks are an official stat. Sack or pressures 'credited' to an OL requires an insight they do not have.

Might there be a few incorrect assessments on who allows a sack or gives up a reception? Probably, but in such a huge sample of plays those errors would normally fix themselves.

So your argument is that if they don't know what they are doing, the law of averages makes them right? Really??

FWIW, they grade Mankins in terms of sacks better than Stats inc. Mankins was credited by stats with 5.5 sacks allowed while PFF gave him 4. Mankins sacks according to stats the last 3 years is 1, 3.5, and 5.5. Its the same type of progression you see from PFF. The number differential is basically attributed to 1 side always attributing a sack to someone whereas the other will hold off on it if they think they cant blame someone.

You stated that Mankins graded as a below average G. That is not taking stats, that is taking the grading system play by play of PFF and calling it fact. You ought to be able to admit that error.

Why does Brady grade poorly relative to others in their overall ranking system? Id imagine its the general overall safe play of the offense. I dont really agree with it and I think its a shortcoming of their system. Brees runs more plays and is going to amass more results. Scores for systems like that should always be tied into some base and they dont do that. You cant score a situational player better than others. They are never given an opportunity to fail and its why when they get more opportunities those players usually flop.

It has nothing to do with opportunities. Their analysis specifically downgraded him for not throwing into double coverage, while crediting other QBs for the nerve to throw Ints into double coverage. That is the logic you have hitched your wagon to. I suggest you look for something with more credibility to tie your credibility to.

I think you guys feel that there is a bias towards New England and thus it means their stats are totally useless.

Not even close. We consistently dismiss their pro-Patriot ramblings.
They are not credible because their methods, experience, and analysis are all substantially sub par.

I would simply ask what better source is there outside of getting information from a team themselves?

Is your argument seriously that no one else gives the stat, so the one unreliable place that does becomes credible? Again, really?

Neither FO nor PFF are football people. They are numbers people. FO used to grade, and maybe they still do, based off the situational box scores. The baselines are all subjective as are their rankings of WR1, WR2 etc... Doesnt mean its not worth anything.

Someone who doesn't understand coverage schemes assigning 'blame' for a reception to an individual is bad data. Bad data is bad date. end of story.

Id imagine you dont subscribe to their stats database but if you do go inside their stats database and look at the numbers for players other than the Patriots and say what is a glaring mistake with those stats. Not their plus/minus grades their actual stats.

Theiir ratings are based on the subjective measures you call stats.
They are not 'stats'. They are the judgment of incompetant judges.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

All I can say is that the statistics they produce are accepted within certain NFL communities as being relatively accurate and about as accurate as what comes out of Stats inc...but its the best that there is out there to work with right now.

There are people in baseball circles who still accept HRs and RBI as being relatively accurate measures of ability. The fact that some people in NFL circles may value PFF's work doesn't impress me.

and even if their work was the best out there, that wouldn't mean it's credible. the best of crap is still crap.

if you think their methods are good then stick up for them, but don't try selling us on "NFL people use them" or "they're better than others" because nether of those arguments say that they have any value. they imply that PFF's work has value but don't account for the competence of the NFL people nor the value of competitor stats.