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"Please explain how the Pats, Steelers, and Ravens have "more talent" and where"

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Deus Irae, Aug 1, 2012.

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  1. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    I think I've worked out what's problematic for the Patriots; they are a system organization.
     
  2. jason423

    jason423 Practice Squad Player

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    I think the writing is pretty much on the wall that the Jets will be transitioning to a 43 defense this season. Their last few drafts have pushed them that way and Rex pretty much said its going to happen.

    Offensively its hard to even argue the skill positions. Quite frankly the Jets talent level is poor. Holmes has talent but is likely not going to be happy on the team. WR2 and WR3 is a mess. The Jets are right back where they were in 2009 before they made the move for Braylon Edwards. Their starting wideouts before that trade were Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey, and Brad Smith.

    I like the Jets line better than New Englands, though the Patriots line was better last season. Alot depends on Ferguson who was a disaster last season. I have no idea what happened with him, but he was a mess in the second half of the year to the point where I was surprised the front office gave him as much of a signing bonus as they did. I figured they would want to play it safer. Waters actually lines up against Moore not Slauson. Id call that a push though Ive never been the biggest Moore fan. Mankins is better than Slauson but that the most easily hidden spot on the line.

    Id imagine the Jets D-line front this year will be Wilkerson, Pouha, Ellis, and Coples/Maybin. If Maybin plays like he did last season he is the best pass rusher for either team. Thats a big if though. He would be worthless on 1st and 2nd downs. I think you are selling Pouha short. I know Wilfork is the bigger name and more respected player but Pouha was dominant last season against the run. I can see calling Wilfork better, especially since Pouha only did it at that level for one season, but I dont think its a big gap. The secondary I think you have right.

    To me the Jets secondary is, barring rookie 2nd year player surprises, almost as dominant compared to the Patriots as the Patriots skill guys are to the Jets. The corner tandem is the best in the NFL and the safeties are better than last season. The Jets deficiency last year (and probably this one too) is against teams like yours the secondary will look awful because once you spread them out it does no good to have Revis and Cromartie out there. Just avoid them and pick on the safeties or 3rd corner. They will be better than last season since Smith will be replaced, at least until Landry gets hurt, and Bell is better than Leonhard, but it will be a rough go against New England. Luckily very few teams have the personnel to do that to the Jets.

    The one area where NEs secondary does well and while I wouldnt consider it as big a difference as the Jet/Pats WRs is they are extremely opportunistic and they dont seem to drop interceptions. The Jets are not a good interception team despite the fact that they do have great cover guys. Its the one thing missing from the team the last three years and why it was too bad Kerry Rhodes never bought in because he was the athletic guy with range they needed. They play better in the red zone as well and your coach does a great job of not having them do things they cant do, which limits the super huge plays and scores. Thats not really talent related but the results are the same regardless.

    Still as a Jet fan its probably foolish to compare the Jets to the year over year elite squads in the AFC. The Jets have yet to prove to be a great regular season team and their mix works better in the playoffs where games tend to slow down, especially in the cold. If roles were reversed and they had Pittsburgh in 2009 rather than Indy on the fast track the Jets probably advance to the Super Bowl that year. But regular season wise the team has won 9, 11, and 8 games since Rex got here. That cant compare to teams that routinely win 10 or more games every year. The Jets need to be comparing themselves to teams like the Titans, Bengals, Bills (who I think are way overrated spending money on pass rushers who have not really proven to be worth the kind of money despite the name value), Chargers, etc.... at this stage. Start off the year 5-1 or something like that and you can start looking at how you match up with the big boys. But its not time for that. Hopefully there will be a time for it but right now its kind of a pointless exercise.
     
  3. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Fair post.
    3 things I would comment on.
    1) I think you severely overrate Cromartie. He is much closer to mediocre than good.
    2) I disagree with your assessment that the Jet OL is better. The primary difference being that you have a huge liability at RT and absolutely no depth while the Patriots have no glaring weakness and likely the most OL depth in the NFL.
    3) Your comments that the Jets are better suited to the post season overlooks the fact that they have become a weak running team. No OL improvement and the same RB who was a disappointment last year says this team is much closer to the 2011 Jets that struggle to run effectively than the 09-10 versions who could be better at playoff time by running well. You were 22nd in rushing yards (even with a laibility at QB) and 30th in ypa.
     
  4. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #51 Jersey

    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Given the apparent move to create inside pressure in the NFL, I can't agree with your comments about the Guard position being hidden. If anything, it's more important now than ever before.
     
  5. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Patriots are better than the Jets at the following positions:

    1. QB (by a mile). You could probably stop it right here, everything that matters has been said.
    2. RB. Greene has slightly more track record, but even if you go ahead and give him the edge, the Patriots have a capable third-down back and some actual depth. The Jets have neither.
    3. TE. Again, by a mile. The Patriots have at least two TEs who are far better than anyone that the Jets have. Maybe three.
    4. WR. Santonio, the top target in their passing game, would be at best the fifth option in the Patriots' offense (behind Welker, Lloyd, Gronk, Hernandez). From another perspective, the Patriots are better at WR1, WR2, WR3, and WR4.
    5. LT. Many people apparently didn't notice it this past year, but Brick gave up a ton of sacks. Both teams have some uncertainty, given that Light retired and Brick sucked, but at least we know that we're putting a good player there.
    6. RT. Patriots are far, far better off at RT and at overall depth for the position. It's well-established that the Jets have none.
    7. LG. Again, Mankins is far better than Slauson. Superior depth as well.
    8. RG. Probably about even on starters (Waters vs. Moore), but the Patriots have much better depth.
    9. Nickel back: Jets' two outside starters are obviously way better, while the Patriots are far better in the slot (where Kyle Wilson is just awful).
    10. Free safety: the Jets don't have one.
    11. Strong safety: Bell hit the wall last year, and even without being a Chung fan, I'd still take him over Landry. They have similar weaknesses, but Chung isn't going into the season with an achilles that is almost guaranteed to get him IR'ed.
    12. 3-4 OLB. When operating in a 3-4, the Patriots will use some combination of Ninkovich, Hightower, Scott, Jones, Cunningham, and Bequette at OLB. The Jets will rely on Pace, Maybin, and Thomas. In other words, the Patriots are better, deeper, younger, and more versatile.
    13. 3-4 ILB. When operating in a 3-4, the Patriots will use some combination of Mayo, Spikes, Hightower, and Fletcher. Jets will use Harris, Scott, and whoever they can drag in off the street. In other words, the Patriots are better, deeper, younger, and more versatile.
    14. 3-4 NT. Wilfork is just about the best alive at this position, since on raw talent alone Ngata and Suh are probably the only inside guys I'd take over him, and Suh is near-disqualified for being too stupid to live. Jets get the edge at DE, since we don't have anyone as good as Wilkerson there, and in general we have a lot of question marks on the DL.
    15. Rookie pass-rush specialists: There are a whole lot more reasons to believe that Jones will be better than Coples, and very very few reasons to believe the opposite. Jones is more athletic, more versatile, works harder, and doesn't have any of Coples' considerable red flags.

    In other words, the Patriots are better at every position except C, CB1, CB2, and DE. Defense is kind of hard to evaluate, because both teams so clearly run hybrid schemes, and both are relying heavily on young talent to make the leap and contribute in a big way. Ultimately, the Jets' lack of depth kills them- that's why I went with the Patriots in most of the "toss-up" positions. Where the starters are close, the Pats almost always have the depth advantage.

    As much as they want to hang their hat on their D, only Wilkerson, Revis, Cromartie, and maybe Harris (if he could be effectively paired with Mayo) would start for us. They might be the only team in the league without a single safety that would start over one of our guys.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2012
  6. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Easily. Sanchez would be QB3 here, a gameday inactive if he even made the team. He would have been QB2 last year, but by all accounts Mallett has improved his accuracy and decisionmaking, which are coincidentally 1) the only things that Belichick really cares about, and 2) things that Sanchez sucks at. For that alone, Sanchez wouldn't be able to justify a roster spot on a Belichick team, let alone his bloated salary. Tebow would be game-day active, but not primarily as a QB.
     
  7. jsull87

    jsull87 In the Starting Line-Up

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    A well reasoned post and well thought out.

    Like Andy my only contentions would be your claims that the guard position in which the pats had 2 pro bowlers last year was a wash in Water's case and a slight victory in Mankins case, then say that's easy to hide. What your OL has going for it is when they are on game 2 dominant players in Derrick and especially Mangold who makes others around him play better. The problem is past that the talent is quite thin. The pats on the other hand have their top interior backups either being either Connoly, Koppen and Cannon.

    I personally like pouha as a run defender and mike devote for that matter but I think you are under rating wilfork and what he did last year the guy basically was the glue that held together our Oline and put up another monster year.
     
  8. strngplyr

    strngplyr In the Starting Line-Up

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    My favorite posts in the JI threads were the ones like "if NE has so much talent on defense why are they so bad, bad coaching?"

    Yet the thread is about the Jets being more talented then the teams that win their divisions, and often the conference, every season. ...why were the Jets such a bad team if they have so much more talent? That must be incredibly awful coaching.
     
  9. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Until proven otherwise:

    Ferguson > Solder
    Mankins > Slauson
    Mangold > Koppen/Connolly
    Waters > Moore
    Vollmer > carcass of a mole > Hunter

    The Patriots are better at 3 positions, and they are much better at all 3. Calling the Jets line the better of the two is wildly inaccurate. Solder is closer to Ferguson than Moore to Waters, Slauson to Mankins or Hunter to Vollmer. This is a knockout win for the Patriots.

    Pouha isn't even in Wilfork's league. I can't fairly evaluate the rest of the D-line matchups (or the LBs) until I have relative certainty about what the Patriots are actually going to run.

    I'm not sure I buy that the Jets corners are the best tandem in the NFL, but Revis/Cromartie is right up there. Both teams have major questions at safety. If you're grading the secondary as all-inclusive, it's a decided win for the Jets. If you grade CB and S separately, we're looking at a knockout win for the Jets at CB and a pair of :confused: at S.
     
  10. TyronePoole

    TyronePoole Banned

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    That site is endlessly entertaining. Here's DWC's latest novella:

    A few things I really like about this post:

    1) The use of adjectives. Some people use too few, others too many. DWC knows just the right amount. I honestly had no idea that these new safeties are strong, strongly built, strong tacklers, hard-nosed, hard hitting, tough, aggressive, mean, nasty, strong, hard, built, strong built, built-Ford-tough, mean-nasty, sick-nasty, strongly aggressive AND physically strong. They also double as golf clubs.

    2) What's outstanding football analysis without proper punctuation and lyrical prose? DWC has learned this lesson well. if Landry can stay healthy? Revis and Cromartie locking up on the outside? I'm Ron Burgandy?

    3) No room for ambiguity. When you're a human thesaurus like DWC you have the ability (potential, opportunity, chance, upside) not to let anything said be left ambiguos (open to interpretation). This is particularly useful when you want to distinguish between Landry returning to previous form football-skill-wise (no thank you!) or merely health-wise.

    4) But what's style without substance? This is where he really shines. Now that the Jets have the personal to build Revis, Wilson, and Cromartie Islands, all Landry has to do is be accountable for "punishing" the TE's or the HBs coming out of the backfield. Simple.
     
  11. Joker

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    The Jets starting QB is Murk Suckchez....that's alpha/omega...nuff ced
     
  12. jason423

    jason423 Practice Squad Player

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    I think everyone gets all over Cromartie because he is a poor tackler (which is true). But the corners primary job is coverage and he has been stellar at it. These were the statistical numbers on Cro the last three years Ranking the NFL Cornerbacks and he is right up there with the top players in the NFL. The one advantage he has is that he doesnt always go up against the best player (he only gets that assignment if the guy is both tall and a down field threat), but even in 2009 his numbers were top 10 in San Diego.

    The depth on the Jets line is poor, but I thought this was just looking at starters. You have an unknown at LT, which is the most important spot on the field, and they have the advantage of blocking for a great QB. Sanchez makes the guys in front of him look worse, with the exception of Hunter who is a disaster.

    I think what I meant to say was they were better suited for the playoffs those two years and that the regular seasons were not spectacular by any means. I do think the defense first mentality does pay off more if you make the playoffs than being a balanced wildcard team that is mediocre on both sides (i.e. the Bengals last season or the Dolphins the year they won the East), but the Jets run game is clearly not as good. They are banking on Greene running for a new contract and Tebow creating some surprises out there. Im not sure either will happen.
     
  13. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #91 Jersey

    Thanks Jason for your well thought out post. I do disagree, as have others, about your assessment of both team's respective G's. While I respect Moore's play. He is a very good G. Brian Waters had one of the best seasons any OG in the league He was better than Moore. Hell he was better than Mankins, I think when its all said and done, Brian Waters is a HOFer. down the road. That being said until he shows up for this season the Jets get at least wash at RG.

    The other thing I found odd was your YBell love. Where is this coming from, Jason. What evidence would give you pause to think Bell is an upgrade. He's good at run support and that's about it. How did he become an "upgrade"

    Here's another thing I don't get, and I will find interesting to see how it works out. Maybe you can help me out here. While the rest of the league is scouring the waiver wires for safeties who have coverage skills. The Jets when out and cornered the good run support/poor coverage strong safety market Hernandez and Welker will snap more than Landry's Achilles if he tries to run with them. I'm not sure what Rex is trying to do here. Clearly he'll be using 5 DB's most of the time

    Finally, I don't see all the Aaron Maybin love. Unless its because he IS the king of the run around coverage sack. He's a liability against the run and a one trick pony on the rush. He does have a speed rush to the outside, but he's NOT a guy who you need to game plan for or chip to slow him down.
     
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2012
  14. BradyFTW!

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    The best part is how he thinks that Kyle Wilson is a good corner who can reliably cover guys man to man. Wilson sucks.
     
  15. jason423

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    The pressures from the outside are basically double what comes thru the guards. Teams use the inside to "trick" the blockers but the pass rushers are coming from the exterior. Last year on a per pass basis Mankins gave up more pressures and sacks than Slauson. Nobody would have every guessed that without looking at numbers. Thats why I say its hidden. Center is even more hidden to the point where I actually question paying so much money to certain players.
     
  16. TyronePoole

    TyronePoole Banned

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    sorry if I missed it but is there a link where I can see this stat? I'm specifically interested in how evenly it's distributed game to game.
     
  17. jason423

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    Mankins last year allowed 4 sacks and 19 pressures in 564 pass plays with a QB that is an absolute stud with his mastery of the pocket. Slauson gave up 4 and 20 in 605 plays with a guy that runs around like a chicken with his head cut off. Im not sure how that is a dominating win for Mankins. Waters and Moore is close. It was 2 and 10 for Waters and 0 and 12 for Moore. Waters is an all time great while Moore is a PB alternate type, but its not a blowaway victory.

    This was my take on NE's line, which did grade out far better than the Jets last season primarily because Fergsuon fell apart and Sanchez is a mess. If Brick plays like he did last season NE has the better line hands down. My gut tells me he wont play like that which is why Im going to give the Jets the edge.

    "Overall a solid performance by the Patriots with 6 contributors playing last season with 4 of the 6 ranking above average and G Logan Mankins ranking just below average for the position at 3.16%. The lone weak player was Connolly who was one of the worst centers in the league. The Patriots did bring back Dan Koppen to compete, but Koppen was actually worse in 2010 (2.92%) than Connolly was last season. Waters continues to be a dominant player and was an upgrade over the Stephen Neal and Mankins 2010 combo at the position. The team got very good play on the outside from Matt Light, Sebastian Vollmer, and Nate Solder, all ranking above average. There are three issues that may concern the Patriots this season. Solder ranked 25th as a rookie but will be making the move from right to left tackle which is a more difficult position. That could be a slight worry. The second issue is the declining play of Mankins. Mankins peaked in 2009 at 1.95%, fell to 2.98% in 2010 off his lengthy holdout, and then fell further to a 3.16% off the lockout. Is that a trend or an issue of conditioning the last two seasons? Depth is more limited with Light’s retirement and there is always the possibility of Waters retiring. They have G Robert Gallery as a swingman but he is below average in pass protection. They also have the ability to shift Connolly back to guard and put Koppen in at center. While that is a weak group it is probably better than Connolly and Gallery in at the same time. Tom Brady is the 10th most effective QB under pressure in the league so he can deal with it better than most."
     
  18. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    I don't agree with you but you're welcome to that opinion. 4-3 penetrating DT's shooting up the middle isn't my idea of a "trick".
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2012
  19. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    That says it all. Mankins is an All Pro player, and still playing at or near that level. Slauson is not. Ferguson is wildly overrated, and his play the past couple of years has been proving that. Moore is pretty good, but was not close to Waters, and Vollmer could just lie down on the ground at the snap and still be better than Hunter.
     
  20. jason423

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    Re: Let's take the Ray Ray Challenge

    I cant speak on game to game stats, though I guess that could be collected if someone had the time to do it. What I have are aggregate stats for the guys who played a majority of snaps for all the teams last season. The formula I have basically looks at completions under pressure vs regular completions which can give an idea of just how many times a player giving up a pressure causes a failure (the average QB split is something like 64% completions per dropback with no pressure vs 43% when pressurized). I find it a far better estimation than the sites that simply say a pressure is about the same as a sack since a sack has no chance of being complete while QBs still complete passes under pressure.

    The average numbers last year were as follows:

    Tackles: Pressures on 5.87% and sacks on 1.17 % of dropbacks
    Guards: Pressures on 3.7% and sacks on 0.45% of dropbacks
    Centers: Pressures on 2.2% and sacks on 0.37% of dropbacks

    Those outside pressures are far more effective. There are monsters like Suh and Ngata that play on the inside now, but its still coming from the outside. Guys on the inside help each other out alot while the outside guys are often on an island. I think the big difference now is that RT has slowly become as important as LT because teams are so often moving players around on the line and its no longer a guarantee that the best pass rusher is lining up against the LT. Hunter last year got brutalized by Ware and Miller on a few plays. Years ago that never would have happened.
     
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