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Not a huge King fan, but this is a pretty well done column..makes a ton of sense, particularly like the value chart that essentially shows the economic value of having the four picks in the first two rounds... as opposed to having a high first.
Bart Scott, Matt Cassel, Chris Canty revel in free agency madness - Peter King - SI.com
Bart Scott, Matt Cassel, Chris Canty revel in free agency madness - Peter King - SI.com
The answer is they didn't get taken in the trade of Cassel and Mike Vrabel. Belichick did underplay his hand, but there were extenuating circumstances, some of which were intelligently reported over the weekend by Adam Schefter, Tom Curran, Chris Mortensen and Tim Graham.
Belichick probably did pull the trigger too soon on the deal of Cassel and Vrabel to Kansas City for the 34th pick in the draft. The reason he didn't take one of the three-way deals involving Denver and either the Lions or Bucs is very simple: He'd already agreed to a trade with his former right-hand man, Kansas City GM Scott Pioli, either late Friday or very early Saturday. And he had some pressure on him to make the deal early in free agency because the team was so snug up against the NFL's $127-million salary cap, and because he knew Cassel's value wasn't as high as it should have been because of his mega-salary and the fact he'd only played at a high level for one year.
You're right to ask why Belichick didn't wait. I bet he's asking himself that same question this morning. But think back to midweek last week. I had two contenders for Cassel tell me essentially the same thing: They wouldn't deal a first-round pick or a second- and something else for Cassel, and then pay him a multi-year contract with a bonus of maybe $20 million and $35 million in guaranteed money. Too risky, they thought. (I disagree but I'm not running a franchise.) Many teams felt Cassel might be a lesser player than he was in 2008 (eighth in passing yards, 10th in quarterback rating) upon leaving the security blanket of a Belichick-coached team and Josh McDaniels-coordinated offense.
Let's examine the financial commitment those four picks (23, 34, 47, 58) required last year, and compare it to the top of the draft:
Pick Guaranteed Money Avg. per year
23 $7.12m $1.97m
34 $3.07m $1.17m
47 $2.20m $904,000
58 $1.72m $857,000
Total $14.11m $4.94m
The eighth pick in the draft last year, defensive end Derrick Harvey, got $17.47 million guaranteed in a contract averaging $4.6 million a year