Metaphors
In the Starting Line-Up
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I'd say anyone who has had doubts about Cassel's value being a 1st plus should reconsider.
The problem is there is a difference between "value" and "market". Cassel's value is a first plus something else (maybe conditional). We have no idea what the market for Cassel will be. The primary candidates will be KC, Chicago, Detroit, Minnesota, SF and Tampa. Two of those teams will be looking to the draft for help (Stafford and Sanchez). That means only 4 teams will be interested and only Detroit is completely devoid of QB skills.
There are some positive trends though. McNabb looks to be off the market (keeping Chicago still in play). The AFC West and NFC North are ripe for the taking and Cassel could be the difference in winning the division. For the NFC North, you have division rivals involved in the bidding process so you not only get a franchise QB but you also keep him from a competitor. KC now has Pioli. Tampa has a new GM and coach, hopefully replacing their "QB by very large and very mediocre committee" philosophy.
So I can see the Bears (#18), Bucs (#19), Lions (#20) or Vikings (#22) giving up a 1st round pick for Cassel...particularly if multiple teams have strong interest. For the Chiefs you are probably looking at #34. I don't think the 49ers will be involved and I have them pegged for Stafford or Sanchez at #10.
I would rank the possibilities as:
1. Vikings
2. Chiefs (2nd round)
3. Lions
4. Bears
5. Bucs
So that seems like a pretty good market to get fair value for Cassel. If teams start falling off that list, expect the value to drop as well. Not because Cassel isn't worth a 1st...but because the market won't be there to get it.