Pats vs. Niners - Initial Thoughts

[Joker]

don't know much about the 49ers...in fact, until I read this thread I thought Kapernickle was some form of German rye bread...that reminds me, bratwurst und schnapps for everyone!!!

 

[CandlestickBum]

nice......leading with the helmet.....how much $$ did they give up?

still....they're all little people..none of them are wilfork,love, or spikes.

I'd put my $$ on the pats in a street fight

Actually, they were considered legal hits since they were not against a defenseless player. You will notice the lack of flags.

A lot of Saints fans complained after Thomas was knocked out, but if you turn up-field to run and lower your body, it is a completely legitimate for the defender to try to get lower than you.

He's one of the big reasons we can put our larger guys up front this season, because he is so fast, hits so hard, and gets so low that he is really had to get past.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kNXvLIJmMQ
Patrick Willis is probably a touch shorter than 6'2", but he can get down low and hit you hard with his shoulder or helmet whereas a lot of big guys tackle high.

 

[Wax Frog]

don't know much about the 49ers...in fact, until I read this thread I thought Kapernickle was some form of German rye bread...that reminds me, bratwurst und schnapps for everyone!!!

Thanks to my nerdy pop, I've long known that Kaepernick in Latin is Copernicus... I'm hoping he'll make like his namesake Sunday night and see lots of stars

 

[CandlestickBum]

@CandlestickBum The Patriots pass D has been a lot better since we got Talib. For your keys to the game: 1. I think the Patriots D can slow them down for sure after how they did against the Texans balanced offense. 2. I don't think there are numbers to support that since the Pats have a league low 10 turnovers and the 49ers opposing rushers haven't lost a fumble in their past 249 carries or intercepted a pass in their last 2 games. 3. I think there will be at least 1 sack. 4. This is something I think will be a big factor. Wasted timeouts and forced into mistakes. 5. Our kicker has been missing a lot too.

Last year, when the Giants did a good job of shutting down the run in the regular season, Smith beat them last year through the air.

Kaepernick can certainly win games through the air, as he showed by running up plenty of passing yards against the sixth best passing defense in the NFL, but he also struggled with the passing game against New Orleans, which has been as bad as the Patriots this year in passing yards allowed. His athleticism means he has the potential to blow other teams away but his inexperience is a big enough liability to lose the game.

I think that the game will come down to coaching. There is a talent parity in the NFL, but the 49ers overall talent level at each position is big enough to win the game if it comes down to it. In the games we have lost since Harbaugh took over (with the exception of the Dallas game), we have been out-coached.

It is hard to predict before the game who is going to bring the best game-plan and who is going to make the best adjustments. I guarantee that the 49ers have been planning for this game since it was announced nearly a year ago and I suspect that the Patriot's coaching staff has been as well.

 

[CityOfChampions]

Kaepernick can certainly win games through the air, as he showed by running up plenty of passing yards against the sixth best passing defense in the NFL, but he also struggled with the passing game against New Orleans, which has been as bad as the Patriots this year in passing yards allowed. His athleticism means he has the potential to blow other teams away but his inexperience is a big enough liability to lose the game.

He's thrown for 3 TD's and 1 INT in 5 games. Not sure if he can win games through the air just yet. I think we can keep him from running wild on us too.

 

[pherein]

Actually, they were considered legal hits since they were not against a defenseless player. You will notice the lack of flags.

A lot of Saints fans complained after Thomas was knocked out, but if you turn up-field to run and lower your body, it is a completely legitimate for the defender to try to get lower than you.

He's one of the big reasons we can put our larger guys up front this season, because he is so fast, hits so hard, and gets so low that he is really had to get past.

[HD] Patrick Willis Ultra Highlights - YouTube
Patrick Willis is probably a touch shorter than 6'2", but he can get down low and hit you hard with his shoulder or helmet whereas a lot of big guys tackle high.

Not sure where you got that from. Thomas even a admitted it was a fluke hit. He leads with his helmet to much. It was not some monster hit that took him out of the game. Sorry thats just not what happened.
PT to this day still leads with his helmet after a run, and makes us cringe. I think the important thing is how did we we still torch your #1 defense with out PT and Graham ?

and remember PT was running at will till he was knocked out, your defense could not stop him.
.. and SF defense is not better than last year, thats a myth.

 

[pherein]

Your right, his record setting performance against the Saints in last year's playoffs was on a Saturday

Because our defense is useless out of a dome. Its not our offense. Brees and the offense torched the 49ers defense in that payoff. Defense couldn't even stop Smith, and that is saying something.
heck the only time we win a SB they were #25th, and needed 100's of turnovers to get there to cover how bad they were most of the time.

 

[pherein]

The Pats better hope it's not about physical. No team in the NFL is more physical than the Niners.

The Pats best strategy is to be smarter. The Niners are a team led by a relatively young coaching staff with a young QB at the helm and they are susceptible to young mistakes like not getting plays in on time, offensive line penalties, and poor decisions regarding challenges and TOs. That being said, this physicality of the Niners is far superior and if your coach wants to match physical prowess, the Pats will be sorely mistaken in their gameplan.

Last year the Saints tried to go helmet to helmet with us an Whitner set the tone by smashing Pierre Thomas so hard he coughed up the ball at the goal line. I see this game going in a similar direction regardless of the fact it's a year later.

Our defense isn't vaunted because we hold people to the fewest points in the game, it's because we hit you in the mouth so hard you don't want to play offense. It might sound like smack talk, but I'm proud of our ability to be more physical than our opponent.

That being said, Brady is a master at neutralizing the effect of an aggressive D and your offense is nothing to sneeze at, especially since it matches up well against a defense that has susceptibility in the passing game.

No matter what, this will be a fantastic game and I can't wait to see how it turns out. However, to your dismay, we will knock the snot out of you and win the game by a narrow margin.

-Amp

Im not getting, the all great, niners team domination rough talk. Sense 2000 you have basically been owned by the Saints and won your 1st game last year out of 6 loses. Your defense did not win that game,even with 6 turnovers , we put 32pts on them. so what does that say about how you are that tough , when you are owned by a dome team ?

Its pretty obvious that our defense is not good out of a dome and Smith was made to look like a HOF again by them. The Saints offense handled your defense pretty well. Your not as tough as you think you are , and without a couple pick 6's vs the coach less Saints this year, you would have lost . If Sean Payton was there I can see you definitely losing that game, and maybe being blown out after the 3rd quarter.
You did not play well on offense.

I think your confusing limited success with fandom. SF has a good defense yes, can the patriots beat them ?
absolutely they can, and they have a coach, and somewhat the same back field on offense, this year.
I can see the patriots putting 32pts on SF, same as we did. Im sure their defense will definitely do better on the open field than ours ever will. So if your smart keep them to 24 pts, because your offense is not top notch and your not good enough to constantly make more than that.
..and anyone , that looks it up, can prove your defense its not better than last years defense.

 

[CandlestickBum]

Not sure where you got that from. Thomas even a admitted it was a fluke hit. He leads with his helmet to much. It was not some monster hit that took him out of the game. Sorry thats just not what happened.
PT to this day still leads with his helmet after a run, and makes us cringe. I think the important thing is how did we we still torch your #1 defense with out PT and Graham ?

and remember PT was running at will till he was knocked out, your defense could not stop him.
.. and SF defense is not better than last year, thats a myth.

Not sure what you are passing that on.

Yards/Game 2011 2012
Total 308.2 275.5
Rushing 77.3 90.8
Passing 230.9 184.7

Points/Game 14.3 14.2

Compared to last year, our defense is allowing less yards per game. The only weakness is being slightly worse at stopping the rush, but more than making up for it in stopping the pass.

Furthermore, compared to last year, we are playing a much tougher schedule and playing in one of the best divisions (although to be fair, we have three other defensive teams in our division, not offensive powerhouses) instead one of the worst divisions, so no question that our defense is better this year than last.

And yes, knock out hits are rare. Obviously if we were knocking out running backs and receivers every game the NFL would probably have to modify the rules, because concussions are serious business. However, the hit was not a fluke. It was the type of hard hitting tackles our guys do, so a few KOs a year are expected the same way that the turnovers were expected due to Brees airing out the ball.

 

[CandlestickBum]

He's thrown for 3 TD's and 1 INT in 5 games. Not sure if he can win games through the air just yet. I think we can keep him from running wild on us too.

Alex Smith has a passer rating of 104 this year, tied with Tom Brady and RGIII for best rated passer in the NFL. Sure Smith is efficient, but a lot of that has to do with our coaching and our talent on both sides of the ball.

Kaepernick has a respectable 97.5 rating so far this year, putting him pretty high up.

Unlike Smith though, he has a real rocket of an arm and can potentially move the ball far down the field.

And unlike Brady, he is lightning fast on his feet and can rush 50 yards for a touchdown on a bad blitzing attempt.

I am not saying he is the next Steve Young, or even that he is better than Alex Smith at this point, but he certainly has the athleticism to be, and I think that can be scary for planning your defense, especially if your original game plan was based around the efficient and speedy, but not strong armed or lightning fast Alex Smith.

Of course, potential does not always beat experience and he could blow the game for us too.

 

[CityOfChampions]

@CandlestickBum Passer rating is nice but still most important to me is only 3 TD's in 5 games. His running is good but I don't think it will be as successful as it was in the other games especially now that BB knows what he's capable of.

 

[mayoclinic]

I am not saying he is the next Steve Young, or even that he is better than Alex Smith at this point, but he certainly has the athleticism to be, and I think that can be scary for planning your defense, especially if your original game plan was based around the efficient and speedy, but not strong armed or lightning fast Alex Smith.

Of course, potential does not always beat experience and he could blow the game for us too.

Nicely said. There's no doubt that Kaepernick adds a dimension to the 49ers' offense, which I'm sure is a big part of why Harbaugh went with him over Smith. I'm personally guessing it had a little bit to do with seeing how much trouble the Giants had with RGIII, too, and realizing that he needed to roll the dice on a guy with Kaepernick's skills to get to the promised land. He adds additional challenges for planning. So far his execution has been good. It's too early to tell how it will turn out, though.

 

[doesntmatter1]

All right. I have seen the niners play the saints and dolphins from beginning to end and small highlights here and there. This is what i came away with.

Defense
-all around sollid tackling. Goldson seems to be everywhere.
-solid coverage from top to bottom and I came away very impressed by culliver in particular
-i wouldn't run directly in ahmad brooks direction or the right side in general too often
-aldon smith is a beast but i see either one of our starting tackles handling him.

Offense
-Collin is a good qb with major zip. Does what smith does but the ball gets out of his hands faster and he is a threat to run even though he doesnt really try to.
-gore is a tough inside runner with deceptive wiggle. Stopping him is key.
-oline run blocks well especially to the left but i dont think they are going to do well pass blocking. Dolphins gave them quite a bit of pressure with just 4 and i think we can easily outdo the dolphins in that department with wilfork alone.

Believe it or not, i think we are going to blow them out. They couldn't really stick to davon bess and I can't see them sticking to similar players in welker,woodhead, and hernandez. They don't really go deep so we can put more efforts into stopping the run and then we will see how it goes once collin has to wing it behind a line that i really don't believe can stop pressure straight up the gut from wilfork and spikes. score 38-6.

 

[Double TE]

We are not scoring 38 Pts on that D. Come on now. Hopefully I am incorrect but I do not see it. If we get 27 I will be thrilled. We are also not holding them to 6. Maybe 13?

Again I hope I am wrong.

 

[mayoclinic]

We are not scoring 38 Pts on that D. Come on now. Hopefully I am incorrect but I do not see it. If we get 27 I will be thrilled. We are also not holding them to 6. Maybe 13?

Again I hope I am wrong.

I don't care whether it's 38-6, 7-6, 27-24 or whatever, as long as we're on the upper end of the score.

The game could go so many ways, and there's just no way of knowing. There are so many factors that could play into it: health of some key players, a few big plays here and there, a few lucky bounces. Some scenarios:

1. Game stays tight all the way, tough and physical, close game. Either team could win. Like the Seattle game. Pats have their chances to pull away but can't. Turnovers and failure to put points on the board could lead to a loss, or the Pats could pull out a close win.
2. Pats get up early like they did against Houston. Again, a few big plays and/or a few good bounces could make a big difference. If the Pats get an early lead, it could steamroll, and I don't think SF has the firepower to play catchup.
3. The game is a slugfest until late in the 3rd or early in the 4th quarter, and then one team pulls away. The final score isn't as close as the game was for the most part.

I sort of favor scenario 3, but I don't have a crystal ball, and I doubt anyone else does.

 

[IllegalContact]

Nicely said. There's no doubt that Kaepernick adds a dimension to the 49ers' offense, which I'm sure is a big part of why Harbaugh went with him over Smith. I'm personally guessing it had a little bit to do with seeing how much trouble the Giants had with RGIII, too, and realizing that he needed to roll the dice on a guy with Kaepernick's skills to get to the promised land. He adds additional challenges for planning. So far his execution has been good. It's too early to tell how it will turn out, though.

I don't think I've ever seen Alex Smith cost his team a game the kaepernick did against the rams. until he proves otherwise, he's just another loose gun that does some nice things for the highlight reel, but will kill you when it counts

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

It is an attitude thing for me.

The 49-ers are gonna come in and play with aggression.

We need to match that intensity and play smart.

Let's face it these are the big boys.

Beating the texans and the 49ers back to back in the national spotlight should give our team the confidence it needs heading into the playoffs.

..as long as the constant message to our team is, 'yeah but you have to go out and prove it next week too'.

Know that you can and keep that sharp edge, we are in the homestretch...let's keep the pedal to the metal...:rocker:

 

[IllegalContact]

yes...yes....I get it.....the 9ers are supposedly more physical than anyone......with the emphasis on supposedly......but they're not......they are a fast defense who will get pushed around on sunday


wilfork is 6'2" > 350, and has outstanding conditioning.........the blunt force trauma he delivers is matched by nobody...

Actually, they were considered legal hits since they were not against a defenseless player. You will notice the lack of flags.

A lot of Saints fans complained after Thomas was knocked out, but if you turn up-field to run and lower your body, it is a completely legitimate for the defender to try to get lower than you.

He's one of the big reasons we can put our larger guys up front this season, because he is so fast, hits so hard, and gets so low that he is really had to get past.

[HD] Patrick Willis Ultra Highlights - YouTube
Patrick Willis is probably a touch shorter than 6'2", but he can get down low and hit you hard with his shoulder or helmet whereas a lot of big guys tackle high.

 

[CityOfChampions]

We are not scoring 38 Pts on that D. Come on now. Hopefully I am incorrect but I do not see it. If we get 27 I will be thrilled. We are also not holding them to 6. Maybe 13?

Again I hope I am wrong.

The Giants scored 26, Rams 24, Saints 21 but Brees also threw 2 pick sixes. Patriots could score 30+

We held the Houston offense to 7 (not counting the late Yates TD).

 

[ForThoseAboutToRock]

A few thoughts here:

1 - Are the 49ers the healthiest team in playoff contention this year? They've had the same starting 5 OL for every game. I see 3ish players having been put on IR after the start of the season - Kyle Williams, Kendall Hunter, Demarcus Dobbs. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the 9ers seem to have had very good fortune with no starters being on IR. Have some missed games?
I acknowledge that I'm ignoring Alex Smith - but the choice of moving on to Kap has seemed to get a lot of coverage.

2 - How tight are the refs going to call this game? Will there be a call in the early part of the game that adds/removes points from the board while each team is trying to set it's physical tone?

3 - Forecast calling for temps in the mid 30's and showers. That's wet, cold football. Ball security will be of the highest priority. Last week the Patriots RB's experienced a slew of fumbles which is extremely uncharacteristic for them. I'll go ahead and be bold in saying that I don't believe any Patriots RB will fumble the ball on Sunday.

4 - I don't think the Patriots have seen much in the way of plays out of the pistol from any opponents. This formation/scheme seems to be spreading from college to the NFL. Will the offense have holding power, or will it fade back to relative obscurity? A game like Sunday could have an impact on the future of the style... success in December, on the road, in primetime against a legit contender could spawn lots of dreamers and copycats looking for the next best idea. The inverse scenario is obviously in play as well.

5 - The Patriots defense will do their best to take away an offense's best strength. They want the offense to have to do things it's not comfortable doing. I believe their focus will be on containing Kap in the pocket and making him go through multiple reads to find somewhere to throw the ball. It will be a massive key to defensive success for the Patriots to stay home and not get caught chasing Kap around and blowing their responsibilities. Playing sound technique will also (hopefully) allow the Patriots to minimize the big-play impact of deceptive play design that is meant to get Kap or any other runner outside the tackle box with a head of steam.

6 - At face value, a rookie QB on a west-coast team beating the Patriots in Foxboro in December is preposterous... if only the games were won based on historic trends and what we're accustomed to seeing

7 - Will Brady have extra fire to step up his game against SF? Go watch the Brady 6 again and tell me he doesn't have even a teeny tiny grudge.

8 - Will Moss get an opportunity to make a game breaking play? I'm sure he'd relish the opportunity. I'm actually a little nervous about it. It only takes one throw and catch.

9 - I think the Patriots play a cleaner, sounder game than the 49ers and win by 6. Games like this are a real stress test for fundamentals - generally the Patriots play with superb fundamentals and only rarely do they hurt themselves with mental mistakes. I think lots of people (especially in the media) will find a play here or there that should've gone the other way and therefore would've spelled victory for the 49ers.