Pats vs. Niners - Initial Thoughts

[JMC00]

With Smith having 19.5 sacks I would have figured that D would have closer to 45 sacks than only having 4 more sacks than the Patriots.

 

[IllegalContact]

9.5 sacks in a 3 game period.......

if it's because justin smith is grabbing jerseys, I have a perfect target for a cut block

 

[JMC00]

So almost a third of his sacks came against Jason Campbell and one of the worst lines in football?

 

[IllegalContact]

So almost a third of his sacks came against Jason Campbell and one of the worst lines in football?

pretty much......he is a bit streaky

 

[mayoclinic]

CK has been accounting for nearly half the 49ers running yards since taking over so containing him as well as Gore is the key. Bad news for SF is Hoculi's crew is going the game and they've called the 5th most offensive holding penalties by crew. This is bad because SF has the most offensive holding calls in the league. If they get off schedule they're in big trouble.

Mike Lombardi had an interesting take on the Kaepernick switch:

“It makes all the sense in the world to me [to switch from Alex Smith to Kaepernick] because I think it’s an illusion offense,” Lombardi said. “Here’s why: When you watch them closely, they’ve thrown for more than 2,500 yards, they’ve run for 2,100 yards. They really want to run the football, and part of the reason they want to run the football is much like the Houston Texans but in a different way. Their offensive line struggles. They're 28th in the league in holding calls. They're 28th in the league in sacks allowed. So, they can’t really pass protect. … When they have to drop back and pass, it becomes a problem. What I think Harbaugh has done is he’s made it look like we’re putting Kaepernick in to pretend he’s Randall Cunningham to let him run around here. The reality of it is we want to be able to run the football and make explosive plays running. … I think it’s an illusion-type thing. He’s made everybody become distracted on one thing while they’re doing something else.”

Lombardi: 49ers 'toughest challenge' for Pats

Interesting thought. I hadn't thought of it that way. Present the threat of Kaepernick going downfield and add an extra runner to your already potent running attack.

The 49ers' OL is good in run blocking (look how effectively they ran on Seattle), but it sounds like they leave something to be desired in pass protection.

 

[CandlestickBum]

@CandlestickBum Passer rating is nice but still most important to me is only 3 TD's in 5 games. His running is good but I don't think it will be as successful as it was in the other games especially now that BB knows what he's capable of.

He's only started four games this season. And you are right, he has only had three rushing touchdowns in the past 5 games, but that seems like a silly statistic to use. The great Tom Brady has only had one rushing touchdown in the last five games.

Kaepernick has also passed it into the endzone three times, for a total of six TDs in 4.5 games, plus he has move the ball down the field, setting up rushing touchdowns for his teammates.

You are thinking of these statistics as if the 49ers were the Patriots, a team with a fantastic passing game which is average on most everything else.

The 49ers play a different type of ball game. They are conservative and move the ball on the ground. They will often punt the ball away or kick a field goal in the red zone rather than risk forcing a turnover or not giving away points. We have a QB who can leave the pocket and pick up a first down himself without too much trouble. Our running backs are our deepest position and there have been times where we had three or four on the field, and that is how we usually move the ball into the end zone.

Heck, we even use our left and right tackles, Joe Staley and Isaac Sopoaga to move the ball on occasion. We are not built like the Patriots at all. Our QB is good, but obviously not Brady caliber, but the rest of the team is dripping with talent and not only do we have a lot more weapons on offense than just our QB and wide receivers, but enough confidence in our defense to settle for the punt and rely on them to hold back the opposition and capitalize on any of their mistakes.

If the Patriots manage to win, I can almost guarantee it will be hard fought and probably due to superior coaching, not superior on-field talent (with the obvious exception of your QB, who is probably going to retire as one of the best 5 at the position).

 

[CandlestickBum]

With Smith having 19.5 sacks I would have figured that D would have closer to 45 sacks than only having 4 more sacks than the Patriots.

The 49ers usually do not bring a strong blitz until they get at least a pair of scores ahead.

They hold most of the defenders further back. If the 49ers get a nice lead going though, they usually bring relentless pressure on the QB and we can put a ton of pressure on the QB without even designing a blitz, because the two guys we keep up front are good enough to beat the OL a lot on their own.

Brady does not seem like the kind of mobile QB that can scramble well, but his arm and his instincts are so good that he can probably read the blitz well and get the ball off, probably into the hands of an eligible receiver. That is why I think the 49ers strategy might work well against him, compared to say, New Orleans, which brought a strong blitz on almost every other play last year.

 

[Claremonster]

If I'm not mistaken he'a taking reps over Fells now. It was only several weeks ago when we got him everyone was saying he'd be a stop gap thatd last 4 weeks.

Now he's drawing PI...

Obviously earned his snaps

Both Hoo and Fells played a part that was of more importance than the guy who likes to be buck nekkid in front of the sports news camera in the locker room.

 

[Claremonster]

Hi guys! 49ers fan here dropping by again. I just wanted to point out that in the NFL it always comes down to how a team matches up. The Rams match up very well vs the 49ers and they are one team that are not afraid to run the ball vs our defense, that is the only way teams stand a chance against Willis and crew.e

Also I believe the Dolphins have matched up well vs you guys in recent years am I correct? That's pretty much how the Rams are to us since Jeff Fisher took over that team.

The team that would best describe that would be the effing giants.

 

[CandlestickBum]

I don't often predict specific games. But I think that the 49ers have a set of unique weaknesses that Belichick's team can exploit.

a) They play their defensive starters the whole game. All 10 of 11 defensive starters are averaging 95% of the snaps and even more. That makes them susceptible to the wearing effects of the speedy no-huddle.

b) Their pass rush is very unbalanced. It comes from only four players,withan outsized amount from only Aldon Smith.
Aldon Smith, OLB 19.5 sacks
Ahmed Brooks, OLB 5.5 sacks
Justin Smith, DE 3 sacks
Novaro Bowman LB 2 sacks

c) They decided that Alex Smith won't take them all the way, so they are playing an inexperieced rookie QB, after they thought they safely clinched a Playoff berth and bye.

d) The losses that the 49ers had were to teams that ran the ball right at them, and completed short passes against them.

e) Their Defense is a 3-4 one gapping Defense like the Steelers, Texans and Ravens play.

Belichick has always found a way to take the oppositions best player away. Expect another JJ Watt episode. Belichick has built a team that specializes in the run and the short pass along with the no huddle as a means of wearing out the opposition in the second half; and as important, negating the pass rush.

Belichick teams have had mixed resullts playing against rookie QBs, UNLESS he has some film of the rookie. Then the results are disasterous for the inexperienced QB. Kaepernick has started enough for their to be some film of his tendencies.

Finally, Belichick's teams have seldom had problems playing against a one gapping 3-4, provided his team has a semblance of a running game.

Add in the MVP QB play of Tom Brady. Then consider that the overload 49ers post against the OLT and OLG with the Smith duo is their basis for all their pass rush. Seldom do they run across a pair of strengths like Nate Solder and Logan Mankins. All of this adds up to the high probability of a mismatch in favor of the Pats.

OTOH, the 49ers amazingly resemble the Ravens. They possess a great pass rusher Aldon Smith, equivalent to Terance Suggs, a great MLB Patrick Willis, equivalent to Ray Lewis, and a heady Safety, Dashon Goldson, almost equivalent to Ed Reed. They even have a great RB Frank Gore, their equivalent to Ray Rice. They don't seem to have a Ngata or a experienced QB like Flacco. Sopoaga and rookie Colin Kaepernick are but pale imitations. But Whitner is a good SS.

Baltimore has given the Pats headaches but usually lose, although not this year.

I should just point out that Kaepernick is not a rookie. This is his second year on the 49ers. This is his first year starting regular season games.

I seem to recall another second year backup for a certain East Coast team that ended up taking over after the starter was injured and leading his team deep into the playoffs, even earning a pro bowl spot.

So, while I expect Kaepernick to burn up a few timeouts trying to get the plays started in time, I am not sure that you should be expecting a lot of rookie mistakes, because he is not a rookie. He has been part of this offense for two years now, even though he was mainly used as an option QB until Smith was injured.

For instance, in our loss to the Rams, he was criticized for the safety, but it turns out that the officials got the call wrong (which ended up costing us the game) and Kaepernick made the right play and did throw the ball to the line of scrimmage.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

It will be a good chess match for sure.

I care morer about not losing any star players to injury than winning. This is the last game of the season where we'll need a 4Q effort to win (Well Miami will play us tough, but i think we could win with Mallet).

 

[Jetssuck]

If the Patriots manage to win, I can almost guarantee it will be hard fought and probably due to superior coaching, not superior on-field talent (with the obvious exception of your QB, who is probably going to retire as one of the best 5 at the position).

HaHa. So Brady has a chance of cracking the top 5. He cracked the top 5 about 5 or 6 years ago. Right now any reasonable and objective person would have to consider Brady no worse than second to Montana among all time greats.

It still would be interesting to know the names of all these QBs that you consider better than Brady.

 

[Steve102]

It's not an initial thought anymore, but the fact that Brady was prepping for this game back on Thanksgiving gets me a little *ahem* excited:woot: TB12 obviously recognizes this is a big game, and not merely just another non-conference game.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Geez, Ken, you beat me to it.

I was all lined up after my meeting to make a post about how this week could be the time to take Chung out of the Witness Protection Program and glue him to Vernon Davis or to be the spy on Kaepernick.

This moment actually begs for Chung.

I acutally agree. He's a solid athlete; he's just not that bright when it comes to reading plays. Give him a simple assignment, however, and he might just shine.

 

[goheels22002]

I wish I could share the confidence that some of my fellow Pats fans have in this game. The 49er defense has the potential to stifle the Pats offense in the same ways the Jets and the Ravens have in past years. And they have already done it to some pretty good passing offenses. I'm particularly worried when our WR and TE are so thin on offense. On defense the Pats have improved but this 49ers team will really put that run defense to the test. Its every bit as good as Baltimores if not better but doesn't have the passing threat. This is a very dangerous team.

You are kidding, right?

The Jets and the Ravens stifled the Patriots? This edition? When, exactly? This year against the Ravens, the Patriots tacked 30 on the board and Brady threw for 335 yards. The pass defense and the referees cost the Patriots the Ravens game, not the offense. Against the Jets, the Patriots racked up 78 points in two games, scoring 29 in one and 49 points in the other. Stifled?!?

The only stifling I saw was Sanchez stifling himself in Brandon Moore's gigantic butt!

I hope the 40-whiners stifle the Pats for 30+ points on Sunday night. There is no way they can keep up with that.

The rushing defense for the Pats has handled a bunch of backs as good as Frank (You can call me Al) Gore. Look at the schedule. C'mon.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

On the topic of physicality and intimidation what's the O/U on Patriots offensive plats before Mankins and Justin Smith get into an after the whistle shoving match? I'll say 5. That's going to be a war.

I'll take the under, sir.

 

[CandlestickBum]

HaHa. So Brady has a chance of cracking the top 5. He cracked the top 5 about 5 or 6 years ago. Right now any reasonable and objective person would have to consider Brady no worse than second to Montana among all time greats.

It still would be interesting to know the names of all these QBs that you consider better than Brady.

Hard to say who the best quarterbacks are. Heck, probably 90% of them, including Joe Montana, played before I was old enough to be interested in watching football.

Brady is still playing football and it is not a good idea to try to figure out where he fits into history until he has been out of the game for at least five years, but if you ask me personally which QBs I think might be ranked higher, I would go with: Unitas, Young, Montana, Elway, and of course, there are still quarterbacks playing the game now, like the Manning brothers and Drew Brees who have a good shot at making the top five list, as well as whatever newer players there are in the game now who might end up having fantastic careers.

Once he retires, I think Brady will make just about everyone's top ten list and a lot of people's top five lists, but there is no agreed upon standard.

What impresses me most about him is that he has been able to make the Patriots a playoff team a lot of years where they really should not have been. Like when Young got hurt for the season, you get the feeling that the Patriots will be utterly lost without him, because the QB is carrying the team.

 

[Deus Irae]

Hard to say who the best quarterbacks are. Heck, probably 90% of them, including Joe Montana, played before I was old enough to be interested in watching football.

Brady is still playing football and it is not a good idea to try to figure out where he fits into history until he has been out of the game for at least five years, but if you ask me personally which QBs I think might be ranked higher, I would go with: Unitas, Young, Montana, Elway, and of course, there are still quarterbacks playing the game now, like the Manning brothers and Drew Brees who have a good shot at making the top five list, as well as whatever newer players there are in the game now who might end up having fantastic careers.

Once he retires, I think Brady will make just about everyone's top ten list and a lot of people's top five lists, but there is no agreed upon standard.

What impresses me most about him is that he has been able to make the Patriots a playoff team a lot of years where they really should not have been. Like when Young got hurt for the season, you get the feeling that the Patriots will be utterly lost without him, because the QB is carrying the team.

Young? Elway?


That's good comedy.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

According to NFL.com, the 49ers are tie for 10th in the NFL in sacks, with 32. The Bengals are currently at the top, with 43.

NFL Stats: by Team Category

My bad. I assumed John Parolin of ESPN Status and Information had gotten his facts right: 3-Point Stance ESPN Boston

Guess you just can't trust the internets like you used to...

 

[mayoclinic]

Hard to say who the best quarterbacks are. Heck, probably 90% of them, including Joe Montana, played before I was old enough to be interested in watching football.

Brady is still playing football and it is not a good idea to try to figure out where he fits into history until he has been out of the game for at least five years, but if you ask me personally which QBs I think might be ranked higher, I would go with: Unitas, Young, Montana, Elway, and of course, there are still quarterbacks playing the game now, like the Manning brothers and Drew Brees who have a good shot at making the top five list, as well as whatever newer players there are in the game now who might end up having fantastic careers.

Once he retires, I think Brady will make just about everyone's top ten list and a lot of people's top five lists, but there is no agreed upon standard.

What impresses me most about him is that he has been able to make the Patriots a playoff team a lot of years where they really should not have been. Like when Young got hurt for the season, you get the feeling that the Patriots will be utterly lost without him, because the QB is carrying the team.

Why note just include Favre, Marino, Fouts, Moon, Tarkenton, Bradshaw and Staubach? Lets add in Warren Moon, Joe Theisman and Bart Starr. Hey, why not Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow while we're at it?

I mean, come on. Those are some good QBs you've listed, but it's just a good example of people not appreciating how great Brady is. You probably wouldn't consider Steve Young in the same class as Joe Montana - at least you shouldn't. One was a great QB, the other a GOAT candidate. That's what Brady is. Unitas and Montana belong on that list. You might stretch it to include Manning. That's all I can think of in the Super Bowl era.