Pats need to win out probably to get HFA

[Ring 6]

Here's one:
Week 14: OAK over KC, PIT over BUF, NE over BAL, TEN over DEN
Week 15: PIT over CIN, DEN over NE, SD over OAK, TEN over KC
Week 16: IND over OAK, NYJ over NE, PIT over BAL, KC over DEN
Week 17: MIA over NE, PIT over CLE, DEN over OAK, SD over KC

If that happens (and assuming MIA loses one game), OAK, NE, and PIT are 11-5 and win their divisions, DEN and KC are 10-6 and get the WCs and PIT is #1 (conf record) and OAK is #2 (SoV).

And yeah, there are other 3-ways ties you can get with NE, PIT, and other AFCW teams where a similar thing happens and NE gets the #3.

Of course, NE just wins 2 and no one has to worry about any of that.

This would require:
Patriots beat Baltimore to be 11-2 then lose 3 in a row to end the season, including to the Jets.
Oakland to beat KC to go 11-2 then lose 3 in a row.
-I doubt any team has ever been 11-2 and lost their last 3, much less 2 at the same time.
Tennessee to beat Denver, and KC back to back.
Pitt to run the table.
While it is possible this has to be like 1,000,000,000 to 1 shot.

 

[Ring 6]

3 out of 4 Games in their division on the Road against two stiff Defensive Fronts I don't like their chances. Lets just say they will have to make a believer out of me. Also their Home Game against Colts not cake walk Luck is back and Colts playing for Division Title also.

Teams with a defense that bad, are apt to lose games they are expected to win, especially in the division and on the road.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

First of all, the Raiders just surpassed the Patriots to take the lead in tiebreakers, and it could swing back the other way.

No, it won't. NE and OAK are tied in conference record and both teams have only AFC games left. So if they tie in overall record they'll tie in conference record. Next tiebreaker is strength of victory and OAK has a huge lead there. (SoV is the combined record of all the teams you beat (and if you beat a team twice you count their record twice)).

The only way for NE to get the #1 seed is for NE to finish with an outright better record than OAK.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

This would require:
Patriots beat Baltimore to be 11-2 then lose 3 in a row to end the season, including to the Jets.
Oakland to beat KC to go 11-2 then lose 3 in a row.
-I doubt any team has ever been 11-2 and lost their last 3, much less 2 at the same time.
Tennessee to beat Denver, and KC back to back.
Pitt to run the table.
While it is possible this has to be like 1,000,000,000 to 1 shot.

I didn't say it was likely, but it still makes the statement "NE clinches #2 with win over BAL and MIA loss" false.

 

[Ring 6]

I didn't say it was likely, but it still makes the statement "NE clinches #2 with win over BAL and MIA loss" false.

Agreed. I'll put it this way. To not be the 2 seed this team would need to totally collapse and it wouldn't matter what seed they are.
Given the inbred schedule of the AFCW I am very confident in a 1 seed.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Agreed. I'll put it this way. To not be the 2 seed this team would need to totally collapse and it wouldn't matter what seed they are.
Given the inbred schedule of the AFCW I am very confident in a 1 seed.

Hope you're right. I see NE going 3-1 down the stretch which means OAK has to lose twice. OAK is going to beat IND and SD. And while it's certainly not nuts for them to lose to both KC and DEN, I think they'll win one of them.

I'll be more than happy to be wrong.

 

[SVN]

No they don't. If NE, OAK, and PIT all win their divisions at 11-5, PIT is #2 and OAK is #2. Just reproduced that in the Playoff Machine.

Remember that 3-way ties negate any 2-team head-to-head tiebreakers. In a 3-way tiebreaker you skip HTH and go right to conference record unless one team beat the other two or one team lost to the other two.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

No, it won't. NE and OAK are tied in conference record and both teams have only AFC games left. So if they tie in overall record they'll tie in conference record. Next tiebreaker is strength of victory and OAK has a huge lead there. (SoV is the combined record of all the teams you beat (and if you beat a team twice you count their record twice)).

The only way for NE to get the #1 seed is for NE to finish with an outright better record than OAK.

Vegas has the Raiders at 12.5 on their updated over/under. However, the under is at -225, meaning that there's roughly a 70% chance implied probability that they go 2-2 or worse.

Vegas has the Patriots at 13.5 on their updated over/under, though the Patriots are also at about 65% chance implied probability to go 3-1 or worse.

Wish I had an apples to apples comparison, but if the Patriots win 3 of their last 4, they have a good chance of getting #1.

 

[Ring 6]

Hope you're right. I see NE going 3-1 down the stretch which means OAK has to lose twice. OAK is going to beat IND and SD. And while it's certainly not nuts for them to lose to both KC and DEN, I think they'll win one of them.

I'll be more than happy to be wrong.

Oakland does not have to lose twice. If they lose Thursday the Chiefs are in first place and we have the tiebreaker over them.
I don't expect NE to lose again.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Howe needs to read the 3-way tiebreaker rules.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Here they are from CBS Sports:

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England can clinch the AFC East division title with:

1) NE win + MIA loss or tie OR
2) NE tie + MIA loss

New England can clinch a first-round bye with:

1) NE win + MIA loss or tie + PIT loss or tie

 

[Haterproof]

Oakland does not have to lose twice. If they lose Thursday the Chiefs are in first place and we have the tiebreaker over them.
I don't expect NE to lose again.

F it! Go Chiefs on Thursday night it is

 

[qbno12]

KC has the easiest remaining schedule 'coz they play Broncos and Raiders at home
Our toughest matchups are against vs BAL, @DEN and @Mia
Oakland might lose on the road in a short week on TNF. That bodes well for us but we still need win at least 3 to get #1 seed.

 

[mosslost]

KC has the easiest remaining schedule 'coz they play Broncos and Raiders at home
Our toughest matchups are against vs BAL, @DEN and @Mia
Oakland might lose on the road in a short week on TNF. That bodes well for us but we still need win at least 3 to get #1 seed.

to get the one seed the Pats need to do a lot of winning. The 2 seed not so much.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

#2 seed will most likely play either Pitt/Ravens. I would rather the Pats avoid either one of those.

True. But we'd end up hosting a wild card Denver, Kansas City, or Oakland as the #1 provided they win on the road on wild card weekend. The playoffs don't have an easy game, unless you count the Dolts these past few years.

 

[deroc5050]

If we had to play at KC or Oakland on the road. I would rather play Oakland on the road. So I don't know who to root for Thursday night. If we win the next 3 games in a row, hopefully that locks up the #1 seed, but the next 2 games are basically playoff games. The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives and also Denver is fighting for their playoff lives. This is going to be a tough finish. I hope HFA or the #2 seed isn't in question in week 17 against @Miami.

 

[Ring 6]

If we had to play at KC or Oakland on the road. I would rather play Oakland on the road. So I don't know who to root for Thursday night. If we win the next 3 games in a row, hopefully that locks up the #1 seed, but the next 2 games are basically playoff games. The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives and also Denver is fighting for their playoff lives. This is going to be a tough finish. I hope HFA or the #2 seed isn't in question in week 17 against @Miami.

Kc is a game behind us and we own the tiebreaker. Oakland is tied with us and they own the tiebreaker. Rooting for Oakland Thursday is crazy.

By the way what happened to not posting again until after the Baltimore and Denver games?

 

[mgcolby]

I think KC comes out of the west as the 2 at 12-4. I think the AFCW represents half of the playoff field, but Oakland at 5 (12-4) and Denver at 6 (10-6).

 

[deroc5050]

Kc is a game behind us and we own the tiebreaker. Oakland is tied with us and they own the tiebreaker. Rooting for Oakland Thursday is crazy.

By the way what happened to not posting again until after the Baltimore and Denver games?

I already said I was referring to commenting on the defense. I just left a few words out of the statement.
Even with those facts I would still rather play Oakland in Oakland than KC at KC. I don't know about the tie breakers except that if Oakland wins out they get HFA no matter what. But Oakland is playing all 3 of their divisional rivals on the road to end the season. They definitely won't run the table.

If Oakland does run the table, then they will be the favorites heading into the playoffs. Most likely. I don't see it happening though.

 

[MainePatsFan26]

Correct. You can check out this scenario for yourself! Pats can clinch a bye if they win and with a miami loss this weekend, even if they lose the next 3.

ESPN.com's 2016 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

I worked out a scenario where the Patriots get the #2 with a 10-6 record. It is a strange year insofar as getting the #1 will be difficult, but getting the #2 is relatively easy. At this point, staying healthy really has to be the primary concern. Winning out could net us the #1, but putting everything on the line for #1 might be more damaging to the team than accepting the #2 and getting/remaining healthy.