Pats need to win out probably to get HFA

[Tuck]

I think some of you guys are over doing this. Bovada's AFC Champion odds are:
Pats +140
Oakland +500
Pittsburgh +550
KC +650

Now the Pats odds have slipped a bit after The Rams game but the they are clearly still in the drivers seat.

 

[PatsFan2]

If the Patriots win their next Two they will be sitting pretty. Would be something to knock both the Ravens and Broncos out of the Playoffs. Both Teams have Defenses that could give us some problems.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

If the Patriots win their next Two they will be sitting pretty. Would be something to knock both the Ravens and Broncos out of the Playoffs. Both Teams have Defenses that could give us some problems.

I agree, but I don't see BOTH denver and Baltimore getting knocked out of the playoffs. It will be either one or the other. If pittsburgh wins the division, Baltimore and Denver will fight it out for the 6 seed. The only other team that has a shot at the 6 seed is the lolphins, and they aren't getting in.

 

[mosslost]

I agree, but I don't see BOTH denver and Baltimore getting knocked out of the playoffs. It will be either one or the other. If pittsburgh wins the division, Baltimore and Denver will fight it out for the 6 seed. The only other team that has a shot at the 6 seed is the lolphins, and they aren't getting in.

winning the next 2 clinches the number 2 seed. We need to beat Baltimore. Losing to them makes it at least not too remotely possible that we drop to seed 3 if they win out, and we drop Denver then one of the other two. Unlikely, but that scenario makes the Baltimore game critical right now

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I was under the impression that the Pats can clinch a bye this weekend if Miami loses to Arizona and they beat the Ravens. Do you know if that is 100% true? I just read a retweet from Miguel that said the Steelers would also have to lose in that situation to clinch a bye this weekend. Would be so pumped to attend another divisional round game at the blade. It has been like another yearly holiday for my family.

If NE wins and MIA loses that clinches the AFCE for NE. So with respect to seeding we only need to compare NE to the other division winners.

If NE wins this week that guarantees NE finishes at least 11-5. That guarantees NE will have a better record than the AFCS winner. It also guarantees NE will have a better record than BAL (since us beating them means BAL can't do better than 10-6) so if BAL wins the AFCN then NE will be ahead of the AFCS and AFCN, thus is guaranteed the #2 seed and the bye. If PIT wins the AFCN at 11-5 then NE still is ahead of the AFCS and AFCN because NE has the h-t-h tiebreaker over PIT.

Hmmm....

OK, I think I can see why PIT might need to lose one game. If NE, OAK, and PIT all win their divisions at 11-5 the three-way tiebreaker goes first to conference record (since those teams did not all play each other) and in the three-way 11-5 scenario PIT would get the #1 seed (!) with a conference record of 9-3. NE and OAK would have the same conference record at 7-5, but OAK will win the strength-of-victory tiebreaker easily giving OAK the #2 and NE the #3.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I was under the impression that the Pats can clinch a bye this weekend if Miami loses to Arizona and they beat the Ravens. Do you know if that is 100% true?

Correct. You can check out this scenario for yourself! Pats can clinch a bye if they win and with a miami loss this weekend, even if they lose the next 3.

ESPN.com's 2016 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

 

[QuantumMechanic]

winning the next 2 clinches the number 2 seed. We need to beat Baltimore. Losing to them makes it at least not too remotely possible that we drop to seed 3 if they win out, and we drop Denver then one of the other two. Unlikely, but that scenario makes the Baltimore game critical right now

Winning any two clinches #2. While I prefer to beat BAL to get three cracks at getting the second win, NE still controls the #2 seed even with a loss to BAL.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Correct. You can check out this scenario for yourself! Pats can clinch a bye if they win and with a miami loss this weekend, even if they lose the next 3.

ESPN.com's 2016 NFL Playoff Machine - Simulate Matchups and Scenarios

No they don't. If NE, OAK, and PIT all win their divisions at 11-5, PIT is #2 and OAK is #2. Just reproduced that in the Playoff Machine.

Remember that 3-way ties negate any 2-team head-to-head tiebreakers. In a 3-way tiebreaker you skip HTH and go right to conference record unless one team beat the other two or one team lost to the other two.

 

[Ring 6]

If NE wins and MIA loses that clinches the AFCE for NE. So with respect to seeding we only need to compare NE to the other division winners.

If NE wins this week that guarantees NE finishes at least 11-5. That guarantees NE will have a better record than the AFCS winner. It also guarantees NE will have a better record than BAL (since us beating them means BAL can't do better than 10-6) so if BAL wins the AFCN then NE will be ahead of the AFCS and AFCN, thus is guaranteed the #2 seed and the bye. If PIT wins the AFCN at 11-5 then NE still is ahead of the AFCS and AFCN because NE has the h-t-h tiebreaker over PIT.

Hmmm....

OK, I think I can see why PIT might need to lose one game. If NE, OAK, and PIT all win their divisions at 11-5 the three-way tiebreaker goes first to conference record (since those teams did not all play each other) and in the three-way 11-5 scenario PIT would get the #1 seed (!) with a conference record of 9-3. NE and OAK would have the same conference record at 7-5, but OAK will win the strength-of-victory tiebreaker easily giving OAK the #2 and NE the #3.

I'm not certain it is possible for NE, Pitt and Oakland to be 11-5 and not have KC or Denver at 11-5. Too many matchups, but I could be wrong. In any event, there would be 11-5 scenarios where we are the 3, if it is a 3 way tie.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I'm not certain it is possible for NE, Pitt and Oakland to be 11-5 and not have KC or Denver at 11-5. Too many matchups, but I could be wrong. In any event, there would be 11-5 scenarios where we are the 3, if it is a 3 way tie.

Here's one:
Week 14: OAK over KC, PIT over BUF, NE over BAL, TEN over DEN
Week 15: PIT over CIN, DEN over NE, SD over OAK, TEN over KC
Week 16: IND over OAK, NYJ over NE, PIT over BAL, KC over DEN
Week 17: MIA over NE, PIT over CLE, DEN over OAK, SD over KC

If that happens (and assuming MIA loses one game), OAK, NE, and PIT are 11-5 and win their divisions, DEN and KC are 10-6 and get the WCs and PIT is #1 (conf record) and OAK is #2 (SoV).

And yeah, there are other 3-ways ties you can get with NE, PIT, and other AFCW teams where a similar thing happens and NE gets the #3.

Of course, NE just wins 2 and no one has to worry about any of that.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Here's one:
Week 14: OAK over KC, PIT over BUF, NE over BAL, TEN over DEN
Week 15: PIT over CIN, DEN over NE, SD over OAK, TEN over KC
Week 16: IND over OAK, NYJ over NE, PIT over BAL, KC over DEN
Week 17: MIA over NE, PIT over CLE, DEN over OAK, SD over KC

If that happens (and assuming MIA loses one game), OAK, NE, and PIT are 11-5 and win their divisions, DEN and KC are 10-6 and get the WCs and PIT is #1 (conf record) and OAK is #2 (SoV).

And yeah, there are other 3-ways ties you can get with NE, PIT, and other AFCW teams where a similar thing happens and NE gets the #3.

Of course, NE just wins 2 and no one has to worry about any of that.

You're right. This is probably the least likely scenario but it does exist.

 

[mosslost]

Winning any two clinches #2. While I prefer to beat BAL to get three cracks at getting the second win, NE still controls the #2 seed even with a loss to BAL.

right but 1 and 3, becomes just 1 and 1, IF we lose the next 2.... and Balt wins out... So we would definately have to beat BOTH Jets and Dolphins, if we lose to Balt and Denver. (Assuming Balt wins out, which I guess I doubt, so it is mute point for the most part )

 

[mosslost]

I'm not certain it is possible for NE, Pitt and Oakland to be 11-5 and not have KC or Denver at 11-5. Too many matchups, but I could be wrong. In any event, there would be 11-5 scenarios where we are the 3, if it is a 3 way tie.

we need to win 2 for sure

 

[PatsFan2]

I am hoping that Miami game means nothing in the end that's why I hope we win our next two: Jets game is already in the bag. That would give our injured guys plenty of Time to heal up. 3-1 Definitely gets us the #1 overall Bye-Week. I hope Brady doesn't have to suit up against Miami.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

We get a thread like this every year with about a month left in the season that always forecasts our rival teams to win out or nearly win out. Last year, I specifically recall a thread that worried a 13-3 record would not get us a first round bye because of tiebreakers, although that was a little earlier in the season. Of course, 12-4 still got us the #2 seed.

First of all, the Raiders just surpassed the Patriots to take the lead in tiebreakers, and it could swing back the other way. On the road this season, they have beaten New Orleans (by a point), Baltimore (by a point), Tampa Bay (in OT), Jacksonville, and Tennessee. Can't say it's a negative for any team that wins on the road in this league, close or not, but a strong argument can be made that @Denver and @Kansas City are the Raiders two toughest games to date, based on strength of opponent on the road, while @ San Diego and home against Indianapolis will likely be a a field goal point spread in Vegas. The Raiders have won almost all of their close games so far, and I think while they are a good team, they are far from an elite team. They've only outscored their opponents by 46 points, which is fifth in the AFC. I would not be surprised at all if the Raiders go 2-2 or even worse down the stretch.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I am hoping that Miami game means nothing in the end that's why I hope we win our next two: Jets game is already in the bag. That would give our injured guys plenty of Time to heal up. 3-1 Definitely gets us the #1 overall Bye-Week. I hope Brady doesn't have to suit up against Miami.

You think OAK is going to go 2-2? That's what needs to happen for NE to get #1 with a 3-1 record.

 

[Ring 6]

we need to win 2 for sure

Well, if we lose 3 out of 4 it doesn't matter anyway, but no, we would have a very good chance at a bye at 11-5.

 

[Ring 6]

You think OAK is going to go 2-2? That's what needs to happen for NE to get #1 with a 3-1 record.

They have 3 road division games. Sure they can.
But they could go 3-1 and we still get the 1 seed at 13-3 if KC wins out.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Going to Oakland wouldn't concern me that much. This would be the year to rest the starters down the stretch if you were assured the #2 seed. NOT LAST YEAR!!!!!

 

[PatsFan2]

You think OAK is going to go 2-2? That's what needs to happen for NE to get #1 with a 3-1 record.

3 out of 4 Games in their division on the Road against two stiff Defensive Fronts I don't like their chances. Lets just say they will have to make a believer out of me. Also their Home Game against Colts not cake walk Luck is back and Colts playing for Division Title also.