Re: With the Bengal's win today....
hambone1818 said:
I feel like if people EVER complain about Belichick trading down in the draft (or trading for a pick the following year) this post needs to be shoved in their face. It obviously doesn't always work out this fantastic but there's something to be said about consistently trading for future picks worth more than current picks...you do it every year and you're always guaranteed to have increased value every damn year, I don't know why some people don't understand that.
Because it relies on a couple of things
1) How well you draft ( Getting a Gronk is one thing, getting a Bethel Johnson or Kevin O'Connell is another)
2) Relative strength of the draft in question
Belichick traded the 89th in a draft that was considered to be very strong ( some 4th rounders would have been 2nd rounders in a different draft year) because of players leaving early to avoid the issue of the likely CBA problems in exchange for the 33 in a weaker draft. 33rd overall means a lot less if the players in the draft would be 4th rounders in a different year/class.
"Value" is relative. Elite defensive linemen, offensive tackles, QBs and corners are usually found in the 1st round of the NFL draft. You can occasionally hit on one later in the draft, but it's extremely rare. The case of a Tom Brady or a Kurt Warner is extremely rare. This is why so many teams reach for QBs in the first round, the relative odds dictate that they have to roll the dice to take a chance on a bust for the low chance of getting a ten year elite QB. Sure Belichick's strategy is sound for flexibility, but the impact is felt in core positions like O line, D line and, for a long time, his secondary.
The picks have no value if you choose poorly. They have relative value depending on the strength of the draft in question. Every year you push an asset you can use now is another asset you can't use to max out the potential of Tom Brady's prime. This is a QB driven league and Brady is the reason the Pats are a Superbowl contender every single year.
Trading Deion Branch might have been the right move in terms of raw value and production and cost against the cap and return. But maybe losing Branch cost them a ring the next year. Losing Seymour was another cost/benefit/risk vs reward situation. But maybe he pushes them past the Jets this year if he was still around. What's that worth?
No one counts picks, they count rings. Picks are generally popular and valued by the masses, the public, by sports writers and by GMs and owners because they offer hope. You can buy yourself time if you are talking about reloading and getting talent. By the time you figure out a player is no good, his value for hope has served it's purpose. The picks are popular too because of their value against the salary cap, when players can potentially produce at a level that exceeds their actual market value.
Billy Beane said it best. Sometimes you can't keep falling back on the rebuilding/reloading/retooling strategy. Sometimes you have to roll the dice and gun for it. I'm happy Belichick acquires assets, but there is a fine line to looking to the future at the cost of the present.
You aren't just trading picks, you are trading time. Time that a player who could be useful to you now isn't on your roster. Time in the NFL is everything.
IMHO, a fourth rounder in a good draft that can help you now is worth more to a franchise than a 2nd rounder a year later in a weak draft.
It usually takes 2-3 years to judge a draft class, so let's look at the Pats draft classes for five years prior to the last two.
2008
1.10 LB Jerod Mayo Tennessee from NO
2.31 DB Terrence Wheatley Colorado
3.15 LB Shawn Crable Michigan from NO
3.31 QB Kevin O'Connell San Diego State
4.30 DB Jonathan Wilhite Auburn
5.18 WR Matt Slater UCLA from TB
6.31 LB Bo Ruud Nebraska
2007
1.24 DB Brandon Meriweather Miami from SEA
4.28 DL Kareem Brown Miami
5.34 OL Clint Oldenburg Colorado State compensatory pick
6.06 LB Justin Rogers Southern Methodist from ARI
6.28 DB Mike Richardson Notre Dame
6.34 RB Justise Hairston Central Connecticut compensatory pick
6.35 OL Corey Hilliard Oklahoma State compensatory pick
7.01 LB Oscar Lua Southern California from OAK
7.37 OL Mike Elgin Iowa compensatory pick
2006
1.21 RB Laurence Maroney Minnesota
2.04 WR Chad Jackson Florida from GB; trade 2006 2.20, 3.11
3.22 TE David Thomas Texas
4.09 TE Garrett Mills Tulsa from DET
4.21 K Stephen Gostkowski Memphis
5.03 OL Ryan O'Callaghan California from OAK
6.22 DL Jeremy Mincey Florida
6.36 OL Dan Stevenson Notre Dame compensatory pick
6.37 DL Le Kevin Smith Nebraska compensatory pick
7.21 DB Willie Andrews Baylor
2005
1.32 OL Logan Mankins Fresno State
3.20 DB Ellis Hobbs Iowa State from BAL; trade picks 2005 2.32 plus rec'd draft pick 2005 6.21, 2006 3rd Round (TBD)
3.37 OL Nick Kaczur Toledo compensatory pick
4.32 DB James Sanders Fresno State
5.34 LB Ryan Claridge Nevada-Las Vegas compensatory pick
7.16 QB Matt Cassel Southern California from Minnesota through N.Y. Jets and Oakland
7.41 TE Andy Stokes compensatory pick
2004
1.21 DL Vince Wilfork Miami from BAL; trade draft pick BAL used to select QB Kyle Boller (2003)
1.32 TE Ben Watson Georgia
2.31 DL Marquise Hill Louisiana State
3.32 DB Guss Scott Florida
4.17 DB Dexter Reid North Carolina from NO; trade S Tebucky Jones (2003) plus rec'd draft pick 2003 3.14
4.32 RB Cedric Cobbs Arkansas
5.32 WR P.K. Sam Florida State
7.32 DB Christian Morton Illinois
Let's say for argument's sake that a majority of the Pats trades try to net them more picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, their bread and butter area. Let's also say 5th, 6th and 7th round picks are considered more of a crapshoot. There are a lot of ugly 2-4s on this list. The 2006-2008 drafts really hurt the Patriots.
Honestly I think some folks look more at the sizzle and less at the steak.
