But then you also have to factor in the short term in that market. Not to mention the fact that despite what any guru persumes to know, there are no guarantees. If you think Luck alone makes this team a contender again...you're delusional. If you think two firsts and a second makes this team a contender again with a competent QB...whole other ballgame. Then it becomes a question of whether Manning can at least be competent for another 3 years and you can actually draft and groom another QB to be competent thereafter.
Drafting Luck isn't going to guarantee a damn thing long term. That's the conundrum.
Well, yeah
Manning at 35 isn't Rodgers at 28 or Manning at 28.
Here is how I would look for importance:
Polian gone, new regime. If he gets fired over this debacle, it would make it easier.
Manning isn't the only one coming to the end. Wayne, Clarke, Saturday, Freeney, Mathis are on the backend. You have be realistic about competing.
Manning evaluation. If Manning 100% isn't enough, can Manning 80% be enough? Not in Indy. With a QB missing "contender", maybe. Look at Minnesota 2009 vs 2010 and now. Good QB play means something
How Luck evaluates out. This can go either way. If they do decide they draft him, he'll need a team around him.
In this case, I would elevate long term over short term. If you give a fanbase reason to hope, they will stay with you. If you give them a declining product with zero hope, it's hopeless.
If I owned the Jets, short term is more important. The Jets need to be relavent and should be good enough to compete with a real QB.
Final thought would be Manning's salary. Is this a money, love of game, or place in history question. Recouping reduced salary in New York is easier than in Indy.