Lombardi believes Pats will trade Garoppolo to the Browns

[fnordcircle]

Their 2nd this year and their 2nd next year sounds nice. Especially since it would mean we would be drafting back to back.

 

[BradyFTW!]

If there was ever a year where you could get the #1 overall for a QB, I bet it's this year with a perceived-weak QB class. If the Pats did get #1, I'd bet they trade out of it. Would be nice to imagine someone like Myles Garrett coming here though.

I don't think the Browns would be willing to trade the #1 for Garoppolo though. Better off trading down a bit, collecting picks, and grabbing a QB a little later.

 

[deroc5050]

I wouldn't trade Jimmy G for a second round pick. 1st over all pick is fine then we can trade down and get a mid round draft pick and a second.

Basically I would take the #1 over all pick for Jimmy G. Because we can either take a great player, and for the Patriots it would have to be a can't miss player for a #1 over all pick. Or they Trade the #1 over all pick and get a later 1st and 2nd or 3rd round pick depending on slots.

I would not trade Jimmy for a 2nd round pick, even if its the first pick in the 2nd round. If we traded for a 2nd round pick then we would need more picks.

Jimmy has the potential to be a franchise QB. He can definitely play, its just a question of his durability.

 

[Horace's Ivories]

If he can run the Pats offense, he can run the crap you are running

Great line...

 

[deroc5050]

1. We know that the 2017 QB draft has no one who can step in and start in the NFL (at least according to reports).

You just never know, its such an inexact science. How does Dak Prescott look? Was he expected to start right away? How about the GOAT?

 

[BobDigital]

The first overall pick be great but i really don't want to trade Jimmy for just 1 guy.

This would not be a good draft to try to trade down cause that top QB isn't there though.

 

[deroc5050]

Bill said that there is almost no drop off from Brady to Jimmy G. I believe he said if you didn't know the name of the QB that was in the game then you wouldnt be able to tell the difference between Brady and Garrapolo.

If you read between the lines he is either saying get ready people, we will be moving on from Tom after 2018, or he is trying to pump up Jimmy's trade value.

After all the games Tom has won for the Patriots I would have a real hard time seeing him play for another team.

If they don't trade Jimmy G this off season Bill is telling us that they are keeping him for the future.

 

[mosi]

JG was drafted in the second round and has produced. My question isn't actually what compensation the Patriots will receive but your analysis.

I would trade him. Brady has 4-5 years more. JG would not be happy being a back up and you should be able to draft another QB in the next 5 years.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

What about using the Matt Schaub trade from Atlanta to Houston? Schaub had only 2 starts, limited experience but some upside, and one cheap year left on his deal. They performed a pick swap in the 1st and 2nd rounds. It amounted to only 2 picks difference since both teams were picking in the top 10, but it still amounted to roughly the value of a 3rd-round pick.

Jimmy is a better prospect than Schaub, so a pick swap would cover more of a spread, but would allow Cleveland to maintain the same number of draft picks. Let's say they use the Philly 1st and that's around 15th overall. The Patriots should be in the late 20s (hopefully 32). The difference between pick 15 and 30 would be approximately 400 points in the outdated draft value chart.

Do a similar thing in the 2nd round (Cleveland could use their Titans 2nd-rounder) which might be in the late teens/early 20s, and that's another 100 points. With Cleveland's 2nd-rounder, that increases to 200 or 300 points.

That gives the swap around 500-700 points in draft value gained, roughly the value of a high 2nd-round pick or late 1st without Cleveland losing an actual draft choice.

The Texans signed an extension with Schaub as part of the conditions of the trade. It was below market-value. Jimmy might not want to do that, but the Browns can always franchise him and balance their books with a cheap year of Jimmy so they'd pay 2 years, $25M, with a chance to extend.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

If JG is even close to being the next Brady, you retain JG at all costs.

So just how do you plan to do that? JG isn't going to sign another backup's contract in NE when his current contract expires. And they won't be able to pay both Brady and JG w/o destroying their cap.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I was about to post that article after reading it. The thing about the Browns is that they also have the Eagles 1st round pick. So if they offered us the Eagles 1st and a 2nd rounder next year, I'd probably take that. The Browns still get to use their top pick on another need and get themselves a starting QB who is ready to play right away.

Picks the Browns own in 2017:
What picks do the Browns have in the 2017 NFL Draft?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

While JG is attractive to teams I think NE has less leverage in a trade than one might think. Why? Because teams know that NE has to trade JG this year or next because if NE doesn't it will lose JG for nothing in return at the end of 2017.

 

[RobertWeathers]

While JG is attractive to teams I think NE has less leverage in a trade than one might think. Why? Because teams know that NE has to trade JG this year or next because if NE doesn't it will lose JG for nothing in return at the end of 2018.

I don't see it that way.

If the Pats get crappy offers for Jimmy then they keep him for another year.

That negotiating position is leverage in itself for NE.

 

[jboston19]

While JG is attractive to teams I think NE has less leverage in a trade than one might think. Why? Because teams know that NE has to trade JG this year or next because if NE doesn't it will lose JG for nothing in return at the end of 2018.

Many of the gms and coaches that would want JG don't have the luxury of time to wait out the Pats for another year (or two with the franchise tag) and hope that they outbid every other team for his services. Plus, Brady is 39. He's playing unbelievably well, but the fact he's that age may be less incentive for the Pats to trade a good young qb and more reason the buying team would have to up the ante to pry JG loose.

 

[stinkypete]

This will be the hardest decision of Belichick's career.

Assuming they trade Garoppolo to Cleveland for Philly's pick (let's say it's number 10 overall), and either draft one elite rookie or trade town and build depth. This gives the team the best opportunity to win one more Super Bowl with Brady. Make this move and you risk Brady declining like Peyton in 2016.

Option #2: you keep Garoppolo for 2017 as insurance if Brady gets hurt or if his age catches up to him. Then you delay the decision one more year. Make this move and you ensure that you have a competent QB once the TB12 era comes to a close. The problem here is, what do you do if Brady is still playing at an elite level at the end of the 2017 season? You certainly can't franchise Garoppolo and pay your QBs $40 million combined.

Option #3: win Super Bowl 51, and ship Brady to a 49ers team desperate to put butts in seats, netting a couple of mid round picks in return. This allows Brady to chase the career volume numbers in his hometown, and gives the Pats a chance to launch a new era with a deep draft cache. Certainly not the option that I hope for, but if you don't believe this is an option, you haven't been following the past 16 years of Bill Belichick.

The wild card here is Brisset. If the team really views him as a future viable starter, then they can safely trade Garoppolo.

 

[deroc5050]

This will be the hardest decision of Belichick's career.

Assuming they trade Garoppolo to Cleveland for Philly's pick (let's say it's number 10 overall), and either draft one elite rookie or trade town and build depth. This gives the team the best opportunity to win one more Super Bowl with Brady. Make this move and you risk Brady declining like Peyton in 2016.

Option #2: you keep Garoppolo for 2017 as insurance if Brady gets hurt or if his age catches up to him. Then you delay the decision one more year. Make this move and you ensure that you have a competent QB once the TB12 era comes to a close. The problem here is, what do you do if Brady is still playing at an elite level at the end of the 2017 season? You certainly can't franchise Garoppolo and pay your QBs $40 million combined.

Option #3: win Super Bowl 51, and ship Brady to a 49ers team desperate to put butts in seats, netting a couple of mid round picks in return. This allows Brady to chase the career volume numbers in his hometown, and gives the Pats a chance to launch a new era with a deep draft cache. Certainly not the option that I hope for, but if you don't believe this is an option, you haven't been following the past 16 years of Bill Belichick.

The wild card here is Brisset. If the team really views him as a future viable starter, then they can safely trade Garoppolo.

Yeah I am pretty sure if they keep Garrapolo this off season, then they are moving forward with him.

If I had to bet... its tough, I would say they trade him for picks and they pray that Brady holds up.

 

[Edelmania]

I would be very disappointed if they got anything less than a first. I am really hoping for a 2 firsts or a first and second.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Option #3: win Super Bowl 51, and ship Brady to a 49ers team desperate to put butts in seats, netting a couple of mid round picks in return. This allows Brady to chase the career volume numbers in his hometown, and gives the Pats a chance to launch a new era with a deep draft cache. Certainly not the option that I hope for, but if you don't believe this is an option, you haven't been following the past 16 years of Bill Belichick.

If I recall correctly @Miguel discussing this, Brady is basically untradeable under his current contract because trading him puts a smoking crater in the team's salary cap.

 

[patfanken]

While JG is attractive to teams I think NE has less leverage in a trade than one might think. Why? Because teams know that NE has to trade JG this year or next because if NE doesn't it will lose JG for nothing in return at the end of 2018.

Other teams know that the Pats would LIKE to trade Jimmy after this season, but they don't HAVE to. That is distinction here.

Yes he'd have a lot less value at the end of the 2017 season. That is clear. But he would have significant value just like Cassell did, just less than what he would after this season. I have no doubt if teams try and hold BB up he'll be OK with keeping JG for another season as protection for TB and another year to work with JB and then get what he can in the 2018 off season.

But that being said, JG is just too much of a solid prospect to play hard ball for teams looking for that elusive QB. If we all agree that every draft pick is a crap shoot. What do they have to lose, as long as they can justify it to their fan base. and I think. despite the small resume, JG has pushed all the right buttons for the so call football experts.

Basically it comes down to this for those teams like the Bears, Browns, Jags, etc. Do you want to throw the dice in a bad QB draft and wait 2 or 3 years to see if you are even partially successful, OR is it reasonable to give up that pick to get a guy that has been trained at the Harvard Business school of the NFL, some great tape, at an intern's price for a year.

Nothing guaranteed, just like the draft, but you've mitigated a lot of the risk, and really cut down your ramp up time. So QM, if Garapolo is someone you judge as a better answer than what is out there, I don't think you play hard nose. It's a seller's market. A fair deal would be a first rounder this year and a 2nd day pick next year, or something to that effect. Anything less would be stealing it, anything more would be a bonus.

Again, the thing you are missing here is the time urgency for certain HC's and GM and their salvation isn't coming from the draft. Maybe their team's salvation, but not their jobs

 

[fnordcircle]

I don't think the Browns would be willing to trade the #1 for Garoppolo though. Better off trading down a bit, collecting picks, and grabbing a QB a little later.

I think there's a roughly 0% chance of us getting the #1 overall for Jimmy.