Let's Lock Talib Up Now Longterm before FA

[mayoclinic]

That was funny. I'm reading this well thought out, almost impassioned plea to resign Talib and all I could think of was, "well how much would you offer?" Then I'd read another 4 inches of text and I'd be still thinking "well how much would you give him?" FINALLY after going through a tome long enough that only I would appreciate, I got my answer in the last damned paragraph. What a way to hold an audience.

Here's the problem. It sounds nice and logical, but these guys never acknowledge their own flaws. Even if they do, their agents certainly don't (anyone know who reps him?). You acknowledge yourself that he's a $10+MM talent. Do you really think he'll take something in the range of $7MM? I only wish it were true. If there were any common sense in this Welker would have signed for 2 years for $8.5MM guaranteed I hope you are right.

I had suggested making an offer of around 4 years/$28M or 5 years/$35M way back at the beginning of this thread, so I didn't think I needed to re-state it up front.

As for CB contracts, the "market value" right now is that the top guys get uround $12M/year. Darrelle Revis got $46M/4 years in 2010. Nnamdi Asamugha got $60M/5 years from the Eagles in 2011 (overpaid, in retrospect). Charles Woodson got an extension in 2010 that maxed out at $55M/5 years. The 2012 tag number was just a hair under $10M, and it will be higher than that in 2013.

The guys who signed in 2012 did better, even though they weren't considered as good: Brandon Carr got $50.1M/5 years ($26.5M guaranteed), Cortland Finnegan $50M/5 years ($27M guaranteed). Jason McCourty got $43M/5 years ($20M guaranteed). IMHO, Talib is better than those guys. OTOH, the 49ers managed to keep Carlos Rogers for a relatively reasonable $31.3M/4 year deal this year. That's something I would point to as a barometer for the Pats.

I don't think Talib is in the Revis/Asomugha (at least at the time that he was on the FA market) class. He might be close talent-wise, but he doesn't have the sustained production. And his off-field issues will discount his value. So when I say that at his best he is a $10-12M CB I'm talking about his talent, not what I think he will get. The market will decide, if the Pats let him get there - remember what the market did with WRs last year. It's possible that there will be a feeding frenzy, and people will pay him. I think it would be foolish for the Pats to let him get that far. But I also think that it's unlikely that Talib will get that given his history, and it's more likely that he'll get something more like $8+M. So taking something around $7M (and I did say "maybe a bit more") for early security if he feels he's found a home isn't unreasonable.

If Talib wants to go the Ty Law route and get top $ he's likely gone. If he wants to use the Pats to rehab his image while possibly winning a SB on the way, he's gone. If the Pats want to continue to play the "we can win without quality CB" game then he's probably gone. But if both sides realize they have a good thing going and want to come to an arrangement that gives both some long term security - which is what happened with Gronk and Hernandez earlier this year - then an early deal may make sense.

 

[patsinthesnow]

If Talib wants 8-10million a year on the open market, I dont blame him. He's performed as a top 10 CB and has been better than Brandon Carr/jason Mccourty.

 

[mayoclinic]

Considering that the Pats traded two 5th round picks and one 6th for Ochocinco and Haynesworth, comparatively, Talib has been a bargain.

The Pats got nothing out of those two.

Ironically, I sort of disagree about Haynesworth. The Pats did get something for that trade ... they got the privilege of cutting him. And I'm half serious - that ended up being one of the biggest moves of the 2011 season IMHO. It sent a huge message to a very young team about effort and about the team being >>> the individual. And everyone stepped it up noticeably after that, and the team didn't lose again until the Super Bowl. If it took cutting Haynesworth to do that, it was worth it.

But I digress ...

 

[Haterproof]

And there's a reason why 10 GMs passed on JJ Watt, and 31 passed on Tom Brady.

Maybe that GM's right. Maybe he's not. I said there was risk involved. But I also said that I believed the risk was worth it. Because either we extend Talib or we go back to the drawing board with the secondary, and I really don't want to do that. At best we find another CB and plug him in and hope he gives us what Talib gives us now. And if we're going to extend Talib, we'll just pay more in the long run to extend him later. And the franchise tag for CBs will be a flat hit of about $11M to the cap, which is not terribly friendly compared to how a long term deal could be structured.

Again, there's some risk, and it depends on the FO and coaching staff's assessment of Talib after 4+ weeks. How confident are they in the kid? How much does he want to be a part of something like this? I get good vibes, but I can't truly assess the situation. But if the assessment is good, I think the reward is worth the risk, given the alternatives. Not everyone's going to agree, just as not everyone agreed with the Talib trade in the first place.

You better preach! Talib will get a new deal (especially if the secondary keeps evolving).

 

[resdubwhite]

Ironically, I sort of disagree about Haynesworth. The Pats did get something for that trade ... they got the privilege of cutting him. And I'm half serious - that ended up being one of the biggest moves of the 2011 season IMHO. It sent a huge message to a very young team about effort and about the team being >>> the individual. And everyone stepped it up noticeably after that, and the team didn't lose again until the Super Bowl. If it took cutting Haynesworth to do that, it was worth it.

But I digress ...

Good point. Well made.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Clearly, cap space is going to be an issue going forward. Some guys who the Pats want to keep are going to have to be cut/allowed to walk. My thoughts:

1) Welker pretty much has to stay. This season has proved it, if it wasn't proven already.
2) Woodhead and Edelman are nice players, but Woodhead is likely replaceable with guys that we already have on the roster, and Edelman is too injury-prone to be worth a long-term contract.
3) Chung should be allowed to walk. I think most people will agree that this is a no-brainer.
4) Unless he comes extremely cheap, Vollmer should be allowed to walk. I like the guy a lot, but tackles with ongoing back issues aren't the kind of guys you want to commit long-term guaranteed money to. I do believe that some team (the Bears?) will overpay and hope he can stay healthy. Let 'em. I've been pleasantly surprised by Cannon's play at RT.
5) The Pats would take a $2M cap hit if they cut Mankins in 2013, so he's definitely safe for one more year, and for 2014, too, since the cap savings on cutting him would only be $2.5M. The rest is just sunk cost. When evaluating long-term cap flexibility, though, I doubt he factors into the picture after 2014.
6) Spikes is a FA after next season, as is Ninkovich. I think the Pats are grooming Ninkovich's eventual replacement right now, whether it be Bequette or Francis. Probably not Cunningham, since he's also a FA after next season. But there is no Spikes replacement - clearly the Pats intend to pay him, IMO.

7) Talib has been good, but unfortunately even "good" cornerbacks get huge contracts these days. Jason McCourty got 5 years at 8+ million per year, and I would think that Talib would want more than that, since he's much better than that guy. That's a good chunk of change, and a lot of these young guys that are coming into their own will be needing to get paid right around then.

If Talib is willing to sign up long-term for less than Jason McCourty got (not totally unreasonable, since McCourty is far less of a risk, both in injury history and character history), then the Pats should probably do it, in a vacuum. Even if it means that they can't pay Devin McCourty when he becomes a FA and decides he wants CB money, I'd rather be replacing a FS than a CB.

 

[ralmat55]

You have to wonder just how much Talib can repair his reputation in 8 weeks and the playoffs. Just a few weeks ago the Patriots were the only team willing to part with a 4th rounder(actually with Tampa throwing in a 7th rd pick it's closer to a 5th rd value) for his services. In a CB starved NFL, you'd have thought Tampa could have gotten more if most teams weren't very leery of his off-field issues.

 

[Ivan]

He's played 2 games. he looks good and I would like to see him here biut some of the ideas for deals floated here are crazy talk. Welker, Spikes, Vollmer come first and then they can look at Talib.

Spikes is going to be a really tough deal to get done imo, I think he's going to want a really big deal and they are goin g to balk at his demands. I would bet that they end up using the tag on him and I don't think it will go over well at all.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I view it slightly differently. What you are paying for by giving Talib a long term deal early is the security of locking up continuity in your secondary, and to a large extent, in your defense.

On the field, there's no way I or anyone can argue that. We've seen the difference he makes in the secondary, so far at least, and while it hasn't been perfect I couldn't be happier with what he's done on the field.

Off the field though, we do not have that same 'security'. Isn't the guy one suspension away from missing a year at least? You just have to be cautious committing long term to someone with his past concern's. That's why I'd think a 2 year deal in the $6-7M range per year would be most reasonable. Give him a chance to prove he can stay clean and then we can start thinking about something long term. Like I said, there's a reason he came cheap and I believe we should be cautious with that.

 

[mayoclinic]

On the field, there's no way I or anyone can argue that. We've seen the difference he makes in the secondary, so far at least, and while it hasn't been perfect I couldn't be happier with what he's done on the field.

Off the field though, we do not have that same 'security'. Isn't the guy one suspension away from missing a year at least? You just have to be cautious committing long term to someone with his past concern's. That's why I'd think a 2 year deal in the $6-7M range per year would be most reasonable. Give him a chance to prove he can stay clean and then we can start thinking about something long term. Like I said, there's a reason he came cheap and I believe we should be cautious with that.

I argued for a longer deal with some "protection" built in for off-field issues. The Pats have done that with rookie deals (Hernandez), though I'm not sure of the top of my head if they've done it with extensions. Perthaps Mo or someone can remember. It could easily be structured as a 2 part deal with a roster bonus, allowing them to move on if things don't work out, and there could be incentives tied to behavior. I think there's some room to work on this issue.

I'm not sure if Talib is one suspension away from missing a year. For what? The PED issue? If so, so are Spikes, Bolden and Cunningham. The off field stuff? Talib was suspended one game for violating the league's personal conduct policy related to the gun issue. I'm not sure if that exposes him to a one year suspension if he has a second violation - I'm not familiar enough with NFL personal conduct rules. If so, that would clearly have to be factored into any contract.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

I argued for a longer deal with some "protection" built in for off-field issues. The Pats have done that with rookie deals (Hernandez), though I'm not sure of the top of my head if they've done it with extensions. Perthaps Mo or someone can remember. It could easily be structured as a 2 part deal with a roster bonus, allowing them to move on if things don't work out, and there could be incentives tied to behavior. I think there's some room to work on this issue.

I'm not sure if Talib is one suspension away from missing a year. For what? The PED issue? If so, so are Spikes, Bolden and Cunningham. The off field stuff? Talib was suspended one game for violating the league's personal conduct policy related to the gun issue. I'm not sure if that exposes him to a one year suspension if he has a second violation - I'm not familiar enough with NFL personal conduct rules. If so, that would clearly have to be factored into any contract.

If the contract has a team option after 2 or 3 seasons that would sound good to me as well. I'm also not too familiar with the conduct policy so I could be wrong, I just remember guys that got slapped with the 4 week variety are usually on a tight leash and the next one could be longer term.

 

[JackBauer]

Clearly, cap space is going to be an issue going forward. Some guys who the Pats want to keep are going to have to be cut/allowed to walk. My thoughts:

1) Welker pretty much has to stay. This season has proved it, if it wasn't proven already.
2) Woodhead and Edelman are nice players, but Woodhead is likely replaceable with guys that we already have on the roster, and Edelman is too injury-prone to be worth a long-term contract.
3) Chung should be allowed to walk. I think most people will agree that this is a no-brainer.
4) Unless he comes extremely cheap, Vollmer should be allowed to walk. I like the guy a lot, but tackles with ongoing back issues aren't the kind of guys you want to commit long-term guaranteed money to. I do believe that some team (the Bears?) will overpay and hope he can stay healthy. Let 'em. I've been pleasantly surprised by Cannon's play at RT.
5) The Pats would take a $2M cap hit if they cut Mankins in 2013, so he's definitely safe for one more year, and for 2014, too, since the cap savings on cutting him would only be $2.5M. The rest is just sunk cost. When evaluating long-term cap flexibility, though, I doubt he factors into the picture after 2014.
6) Spikes is a FA after next season, as is Ninkovich. I think the Pats are grooming Ninkovich's eventual replacement right now, whether it be Bequette or Francis. Probably not Cunningham, since he's also a FA after next season. But there is no Spikes replacement - clearly the Pats intend to pay him, IMO.

7) Talib has been good, but unfortunately even "good" cornerbacks get huge contracts these days. Jason McCourty got 5 years at 8+ million per year, and I would think that Talib would want more than that, since he's much better than that guy. That's a good chunk of change, and a lot of these young guys that are coming into their own will be needing to get paid right around then.

If Talib is willing to sign up long-term for less than Jason McCourty got (not totally unreasonable, since McCourty is far less of a risk, both in injury history and character history), then the Pats should probably do it, in a vacuum. Even if it means that they can't pay Devin McCourty when he becomes a FA and decides he wants CB money, I'd rather be replacing a FS than a CB.

Good post. I disagree with you re: Vollmer and McCourty, but otherwise spot on.

 

[BananaRepublican]

This guy needs to be a model citizen for more than a month

But what about the Age Of Instant Gratification?

 

[patsinthesnow]

A Brady extension (can't restructure because of what it would do to 2014 and a tag price going forward not to mention no leverage since his deal is now effectively fully guaranteed) will significantly lower Tom's cap. By several to ten million +.

That said, you are right and they can't just afford everyone (without sacrificing something else). Talib has been a solid acquisition. He's not a pro bowl shutdown corner from what we've seen. I don't know where he sees himself or where they see him, but there may be other candidates for what this team needed which was just solid play at corner and safety and stability via moving McCourty to safety. As Bedard has noted, they've been blitzing more due to matchups with play action QB's and blitzed more after Talib left the game than when he was in. Just feeling a certain comfort level in the secondary and with the improving play of a young front 7 moreso than Talib per say may be afoot.

As for tag prices, they won't go up much given the new formula but estimate OL at $9-10M, CB at $10-11M and WR for Welker because it would be 120% of his 2012 tag at $11.4M. You have to look at unit allocation and while CB and WR aren't costing much OL already has a LG making $8.5M. Although Arrington is a FA in 2013 and while he'd be cheaper as a slot corner he's still gonna cost them $3-4M if he's not overvalued elsewhere. Then you have to factor in durability. Then you have to project...

Just curious to why you say this. There are only 2 shutdown CBs in the whole league (Revis and Sherman), the rest give up passes. Name 10 CBs better than Talib.

 

[Fencer]

One way to think about the FA bidding is -- is a guy worth more on the Pats or elsewhere?

• Vollmer might be a LT elsewhere, which makes him a strong candidate to leave.
• Welker seems to benefit from a highly accurate QB -- but he played very well for Cassell too. He might be worth even more to a team with a shaky QB.
• Edelman -- well, that depends in part on whether Welker stays.
• Talib -- he's worth more on a team where he toes the line than one one where he doesn't.

 

[DocHoliday]

Just curious to why you say this. There are only 2 shutdown CBs in the whole league (Revis and Sherman), the rest give up passes. Name 10 CBs better than Talib.

(No order)

1.) Cromartie
2.) Tillman
3.) Sean Smith
4.) Cortland Finnegan
5.) Patrick Peterson
6.) Devin McCourty (In Zone)

I got 6.

 

[mayoclinic]

(No order)

1.) Cromartie
2.) Tillman
3.) Sean Smith
4.) Cortland Finnegan
5.) Patrick Peterson
6.) Devin McCourty (In Zone)

I got 6.

I'll go with Tillman for sure, though he's getting on in years (though showing no signs of slowing down). Peterson obviously based on upside and athleticism, though he's still inconsistent. I'm keeping McCourty at FS and sticking with mainly man coverage, so that's not really the way I'd go (though I agree that McCourty is a comparable talent to Talib, and perhaps a bit better, though I prefer him as a FS). I personally don't agree about Sean Smith, Cortland Finnegan or Antonio Cromartie. Charles Woodson would obviously have been on the list, but he's past his prime. Ditto Champ Bailey. I don't know enough about Brandon Flowers to know how he is in man coverage vs. zone.

If I'm looking to build my team around a pair of young (27 or under) aggressive CBs, Talib and Dennard is a pretty strong start. If you can't have Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, it's not really not that bad a place to be.

 

[Deus Irae]

(No order)

1.) Cromartie
2.) Tillman
3.) Sean Smith
4.) Cortland Finnegan
5.) Patrick Peterson
6.) Devin McCourty (In Zone)

I got 6.

AFC definites:

Cromartie
Revis
Bailey
Joseph
Flowers

AFC arguables:

Haden
Webb
Finnegan
Brown

NFC definites:

Grimes
Sherman
Rogers
Peterson

NFL arguables:

Samuel
Tillman
T. Williams
Carr


I've probably missed one or more, but that's a start....

 

[Marqui]

Sean Smith isn't even close to as good as Talib.

 

[DocHoliday]

I'll go with Tillman for sure, though he's getting on in years (though showing no signs of slowing down). Peterson obviously based on upside and athleticism, though he's still inconsistent. I'm keeping McCourty at FS and sticking with mainly man coverage, so that's not really the way I'd go (though I agree that McCourty is a comparable talent to Talib, and perhaps a bit better, though I prefer him as a FS). I personally don't agree about Sean Smith, Cortland Finnegan or Antonio Cromartie. Charles Woodson would obviously have been on the list, but he's past his prime. Ditto Champ Bailey. I don't know enough about Brandon Flowers to know how he is in man coverage vs. zone.

If I'm looking to build my team around a pair of young (27 or under) aggressive CBs, Talib and Dennard is a pretty strong start. If you can't have Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman or Patrick Peterson, it's not really not that bad a place to be.

Cromartie's been a stud this season. I know he's a Dbag, but he's been playing #1 CB as well as anyone IMO.

I forgot about Champ and Woodson, they'd easily make the list. Same with Joseph.